Annuities?

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Cortopassi
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Re: Annuities?

Post by Cortopassi » Sat May 19, 2018 9:00 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 5:27 am
here is a nice comparison of the difference in dollars but it does not figure in spending down invested assets to delay nor the spousal benefits your spouse can't get until you file .

the 2nd one shows you break even compared to a balanced portfolio.

Image

Image
Thanks for this info and I just wanted to say, a bit scary how my chart, which I created in a vacuum, looks so similar to JP Morgan's!
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mathjak107
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Re: Annuities?

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 19, 2018 9:04 am

most charts will look a like because the math is the math .

there are other factors involved in deciding when to take ss , like taxes , aca subsidies , survivor benefits , future rmd's , dependency on markets and rates etc. so it can be quite complex , certainly far more complex than what if i die is .
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sophie
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Re: Annuities?

Post by sophie » Sat May 19, 2018 9:49 am

How does the increase in full retirement age to age 67 affect this calculation?
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mathjak107
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Re: Annuities?

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 19, 2018 10:22 am

t would have to be recalculated because it certainly will effect it . there are fractions you multiply by on the ss website to reconfigure.
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Re: Annuities?

Post by ochotona » Sat May 19, 2018 11:02 am

Maximizemysocialsecurity.com
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Cortopassi
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Re: Annuities?

Post by Cortopassi » Sat May 19, 2018 11:28 am

This is like the young kids and testing do they want one jellybean now, or if they can sit and wait for 15 minutes they get two.

My gut (right now) continues to tell me take it all, as soon as I can, unless I don't need it. When I hit 62 I will have to assess where things are at.
Ideally I would have already been retired/semi-retired for 2 years, so I will have a better sense of how my real spending and expenses match against the real world.

Ocho, I took the test and gave me back that I will live to 95.

When I run my retirement simulator (FYI I use Personal Capital) and compare SS starting at 62 vs. 67 with all other assets and growth projections the same, the breakeven takes until age 91, whereas the spend down on my assets between 62 and 67 is a bit more pronounced in the scenario where I delay SS until 67.

And if my luck holds, that 5 year period between 62 and 67 will be the worst ever for the stock and bond market in history....and my spend down will be enough to cause me great anxiety...

Hence, the original post asking about annuities!
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Re: Annuities?

Post by Mountaineer » Sat May 19, 2018 11:40 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:28 am
This is like the young kids and testing do they want one jellybean now, or if they can sit and wait for 15 minutes they get two.

My gut (right now) continues to tell me take it all, as soon as I can, unless I don't need it. When I hit 62 I will have to assess where things are at.
Ideally I would have already been retired/semi-retired for 2 years, so I will have a better sense of how my real spending and expenses match against the real world.

Ocho, I took the test and gave me back that I will live to 95.

When I run my retirement simulator (FYI I use Personal Capital) and compare SS starting at 62 vs. 67 with all other assets and growth projections the same, the breakeven takes until age 91, whereas the spend down on my assets between 62 and 67 is a bit more pronounced in the scenario where I delay SS until 67.

And if my luck holds, that 5 year period between 62 and 67 will be the worst ever for the stock and bond market in history....and my spend down will be enough to cause me great anxiety...

Hence, the original post asking about annuities!
;D There is a reason for the old adage, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." Or, as Vanguard might say, past performance does not assure future success.

May you have the wisdom you need and the good luck to go with it. :)
Vocation - doing what God has given me to do for the sake of the other.
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mathjak107
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Re: Annuities?

Post by mathjak107 » Sat May 19, 2018 11:41 am

the nice thing is to have enough money so you can have choices as to when to take it. i always say money may not buy happiness but it buys choices in life .

i went with 65. i work 1 day a week so i did not want to give money back . i like what i do so i really enjoy doing that day or occassional 2 days .

in the year i will be fra i can earn up to 45k and give nothing back . so 65 was a good balance for me. my wife took it at 62 .
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Re: Annuities?

Post by barrett » Sat May 19, 2018 11:55 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:28 am
This is like the young kids and testing do they want one jellybean now, or if they can sit and wait for 15 minutes they get two.

My gut (right now) continues to tell me take it all, as soon as I can, unless I don't need it. When I hit 62 I will have to assess where things are at.
Ideally I would have already been retired/semi-retired for 2 years, so I will have a better sense of how my real spending and expenses match against the real world.

Ocho, I took the test and gave me back that I will live to 95.

When I run my retirement simulator (FYI I use Personal Capital) and compare SS starting at 62 vs. 67 with all other assets and growth projections the same, the breakeven takes until age 91, whereas the spend down on my assets between 62 and 67 is a bit more pronounced in the scenario where I delay SS until 67.

And if my luck holds, that 5 year period between 62 and 67 will be the worst ever for the stock and bond market in history....and my spend down will be enough to cause me great anxiety...

Hence, the original post asking about annuities!
All very interesting. My big realization in reviewing this stuff as a result of this thread is that my wife won't need to claim based on my earnings. She's now reached the point where it will be more favorable to collect based on her own earnings. Crap, I'd better not tell her and give her one more reason to hit the road.

And, as I'm sure you know, Cortopassi, the whole SS system could go through something of an overhaul before you claim. I'm already 59.7 and I'm counting on some major changes before I claim at age 70 in 2028 and my wife claims at 67 in 2034.
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Re: Annuities?

Post by pugchief » Sat May 19, 2018 1:02 pm

barrett wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:55 am

All very interesting. My big realization in reviewing this stuff as a result of this thread is that my wife won't need to claim based on my earnings. She's now reached the point where it will be more favorable to collect based on her own earnings. Crap, I'd better not tell her and give her one more reason to hit the road.

And, as I'm sure you know, Cortopassi, the whole SS system could go through something of an overhaul before you claim. I'm already 59.7 and I'm counting on some major changes before I claim at age 70 in 2028 and my wife claims at 67 in 2034.
If you believe that, wouldn't it make sense to claim as early as possible to lock in a plan? I doubt they would change things for people already recieving benefits. Although the evil of politicians knows no bounds.
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ochotona
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Re: Annuities?

Post by ochotona » Sat May 19, 2018 2:28 pm

I'm going to discount the future Social Security cash flows after a certain date like what was it 2034 when the trust fund runs out of money? The trustees report that only 79% of the benefits will be able to be paid out? So discount by at least that much.
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Re: Annuities?

Post by barrett » Sat May 19, 2018 2:46 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 2:28 pm
I'm going to discount the future Social Security cash flows after a certain date like what was it 2034 when the trust fund runs out of money? The trustees report that only 79% of the benefits will be able to be paid out? So discount by at least that much.
Yeah, the wording on the annual statements is deliberately wishy washy, I think. My last one says "... by 2034, the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay out only about 77% of scheduled benefits." They don't really say where we are right now. I mean, it doesn't go from 100% to 77% overnight, right?

I can't imagine that Congress will do much until the very last minute, so maybe in another decade (right as Cortopassi is getting ready to claim!). The age increases under the 1983 changes to SS affect those born up to 1960. I would expect that one of the changes will be that those born in 1961 or later will see a gradual increase in age at which they can collect (both the minimum age to get anything as well as one's FRA).

But I am obviously just speculating.
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