Are you as smart as the smartest woman on earth? (A Probability Problem)

[Mountaineer]

Maddy, I too really liked your explanation - made much more sense than most I've read. Kudos!!!!

Next time you are thinking of Schrödinger's cat and can't sleep, try this book.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/129 ... s-religion

... Mountaineer

[buddtholomew]

I understand the explanation but can't process the following:
Why does removing door 3 from the scenario transfer the probability to door 2 only?
The car could exist in door 1 just as it could exist in door 2.
He didn't tell you a goat exists in door 1, just couldn't open that door.

[Maddy]

That's right. It's totally counter-intuitive. The correct result still doesn't set well with me, and the only way I was able to reason my way through the problem was by knowing in advance what the correct answer was and working backwards. It's interesting that this problem tripped up even the mathematicians and that a bunch of them are STILL holding fast to the 50/50 idea. You could raise a whole helluva lot of money at a charity event by playing this game!

[buddtholomew]

I see it now.
Of the 2/3's, 1/3 has been removed so naturally one should pick door 2. Door 1 is irrelevant since it only represents 1/3 of the original equation.

Fine

[dualstow]

@barrett, actually it's a relief to learn what was behind the unfounded praise. For a while there, I felt like Obama receiving the peace prize.

[dualstow]

I understand the explanation but can't process the following:
Why does removing door 3 from the scenario transfer the probability to door 2 only?
The car could exist in door 1 just as it could exist in door 2.
He didn't tell you a goat exists in door 1, just couldn't open that door.

Think of it this way (I see that Budd got it later, but for those of you still feeling the pull of common sense) -

What were the odds on door 1 being right when it was selected, because that's what counts. Opening door 3 and finding a goat does not take us back in time, thus it cannot alter the odds on door 1. Those odds are locked.

The next choice, on the other hand, is a truly fresh choice between two doors. For me, it's 1/2, 50/50 b/c it's like door 3 doesn't exist. Maddy said 2/3, and that does add up to 1 (100%). Either way, the odds are better than the frozen 1/3 with door 1.

[Libertarian666]

The article didn't provide an explanation that made any sense to me. Nor, apparently, did it make sense to the majority of readers who commented on the article and who continue to insist that when Door 3 is eliminated, the probabilities become 50/50 that the car is behind either of the two remaining doors. I lay awake last night thinking about it, not able to see how the answer could possibly be other than 50/50, and the answer finally came to me (albeit in a way that I've not heard it explained before):

The key to the problem is that Monty alters the probabilities when he chooses which door to open. Look at it this way:

When Monty chooses which door to open, he must follow two rules:
(1) He cannot open Door 1 (because that’s the door the contestant has chosen).
(2) He must choose a door with a goat.

Because there is a 1/3 probability that Door 1 has a goat, there must be a 2/3 probability that there is a goat is behind either Door 2 or Door 3.

When Door 3 is revealed to have a goat behind it, the 2/3 probability that attached to the sum of both Door 2 and Door 3 shifts entirely to Door 2, while the probability that Door 1 is the winner remains at 1/3.

So while it appears that with the elimination of Door 3 the two remaining choices each have a 50 percent probability of being right, that approach fails to account for the fact that Monty’s choice to open Door 3 was not random; he could not open Door 1, and he had to open a door with a goat. Thus his choice to open Door 3, rather than Door 2, altered the remaining probabilities, making it substantially more likely that Door 2 would not reveal a goat.

What if Monty Hall opens the door with the goat only if the contestant has already chosen the correct door?
In that case, the chance of winning by switching is 0%.

[WiseOne]

Ha, I love this puzzle. My Dad used to have us solve conundrums when we were kids and this was a favorite. Second only to the one about the 3 guys in a hotel with the thieving bellhop and the missing dollar.

This is actually a quite simple one, and it's a useful example of conditional probabilities. Tenn got it right:

If you don't switch, your chances of picking the car remains at 1/3 (one car out of three doors).
If you switch, your chances of getting the car are 2/3. Whether you picked a goat or a car, you will get the other item if you switch. You had a 2/3 chance of picking a goat initially, so if you switch you have that same chance (2/3) of getting the car.

If only such logic could apply to airlines...finally coming back to the US tomorrow and there's some ticket number issues with my reservation that I'll have to battle through at the airport. Logic has nothing to do with THAT situation!

[dualstow]

That's right. It's totally counter-intuitive... You could raise a whole helluva lot of money at a charity event by playing this game!

I was thinking about the money raising angle. Maybe I'm being dense, but I can't think of an game that takes advantage of the Monty Hall Paradox and that people would want to play.

How about a game show? We could call it something snappy like Let's Make a Deal.

[Libertarian666]

What if Monty Hall opens the door with the goat only if the contestant has already chosen the correct door?
In that case, the chance of winning by switching is 0%.

The rules of the game are (i) Monty always opens a door and (ii) a goat is behind the door that Monty opens.

I didn't know that it was mandatory for him to open the door.

In fact, I'm pretty sure that was not specified in the original version of the problem.

[Xan]

What if Monty Hall opens the door with the goat only if the contestant has already chosen the correct door?
In that case, the chance of winning by switching is 0%.

The rules of the game are (i) Monty always opens a door and (ii) a goat is behind the door that Monty opens.

I didn't know that it was mandatory for him to open the door.

In fact, I'm pretty sure that was not specified in the original version of the problem.

I believe you're right for the actual game show, but for the intellectual exercise of "The Monty Hall Problem", it is definitely always mandatory.

[Maddy]

That's right. It's totally counter-intuitive... You could raise a whole helluva lot of money at a charity event by playing this game!

I was thinking about the money raising angle. Maybe I'm being dense, but I can't think of an game that takes advantage of the Monty Hall Paradox and that people would want to play.

Well, some of us are easily entertained.

[barrett]

This is actually a quite simple one, and it's a useful example of conditional probabilities. Tenn got it right:

Well this is weird. First, barrett credits dualstow. Then WiseOne credits me.

Again, it was Maddy.

I feel the need to point out that neither dualstow nor I were involved in writing the Beach Boys song "Good Vibrations".

Just to clarify, Tenn, I never claimed you and dualstow wrote "Good Vibrations." My point was merely that you two recorded the best version. Now where is that friggin' goat I was looking for?

[dualstow]

For what it's worth, a friend of mine is tangentially involved in the music business. He knows all the surviving Beach Boys in person and has been heavily involved with Devo. He literally wrote the book on Devo as he likes to say, literally. Apparently, his counterpart at the Beach Boys (interviews, liner notes, archiving of recordings) contacted him, so he has some connection to the Beach Boys now, too. I'm sure he would be amused by this conversation.

@Tenn: I think it needs a bit more cowbell. What say you?

[Mountaineer]

For what it's worth, a friend of mine is tangentially involved in the music business. He knows all the surviving Beach Boys in person and has been heavily involved with Devo. He literally wrote the book on Devo as he likes to say, literally. Apparently, his counterpart at the Beach Boys (interviews, liner notes, archiving of recordings) contacted him, so he has some connection to the Beach Boys now, too. I'm sure he would be amused by this conversation.

@Tenn: I think it needs a bit more cowbell. What say you?

I put my pants on just like the rest of you -- one leg at a time. Except, once my pants are on, I make gold records.

Go forward, move ahead. Whip it.