Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:31 pm

jacksonm2 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:42 pm
flyingpylon wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:43 am
Not sure if anyone’s noticed, but the flow of information on the internet has changed a bit since Drudge was a “major influence” TWENTY YEARS AGO.
I may travel in too small of circles but almost everyone I talk to about politics who identifies as a conservative or right leaning libertarian still says "Of course" if I ask them if they read Drudge.
How old are those people you talk to?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonm2 » Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:22 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:31 pm
jacksonm2 wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:42 pm
flyingpylon wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:43 am
Not sure if anyone’s noticed, but the flow of information on the internet has changed a bit since Drudge was a “major influence” TWENTY YEARS AGO.
I may travel in too small of circles but almost everyone I talk to about politics who identifies as a conservative or right leaning libertarian still says "Of course" if I ask them if they read Drudge.
How old are those people you talk to?
A few of them were in the old folks home where I live but I do seem to recall that there were some younger folks somewhere along the way. Could have been a long time ago. My memory is foggy nowadays.

Checking out the influence of Drudge today I did find an article from 2018 about Drudge passing the New York Times and becoming the sixth most popular news aggregation website.

I've heard his numbers are declining lately which I don't doubt.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by I Shrugged » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:07 pm

I had drafted this for the good job thread, but it's more appropriate here.
=====

Also, the grassroots ordinary GOP voter has really been transformed by what they are seeing. It started with the deplorables thing and now Trump's opponents are often loudly bashing his supporters, taking up the same deplorables theme and amping it way up. People are very hurt and upset about all of it. And still strongly backing Trump, because he is the one sticking his thumb in the eyes of the swamp, the media, and the screaming mob.

I don't know what to think about the ordinary Dem voter. I am sure they hate Trump, but I have a lot of doubt about their support for socialist economics, drag queen story hours at the elementary school, live birth abortions, etc. I guess what I'm saying is that the GOP conviction/motivation level feels pretty deep, but the Dem's might be quite thin, literally one issue: We hate Trump. (Granted, it's strong for them.) I'd be interested to hear others' opinions on the Dem voters' feelings about all of the wokeness, indignation against whites and men, and socialism.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by I Shrugged » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:12 pm

Re Limbaugh. He's wholly in the Trump camp. Just this week he was talking about how so much of the swamp is the military industry and its lackeys. I was truly surprised to hear him say it. He's also said a lot of things recently that essentially are anti-neocon. Although he still thinks GWB was great and we invaded Iraq for all of the reasons we were told.

He's as devotedly partisan as it gets, but I do think he's getting his eyes opened by Trump. And that is illustrative of the point I made in the other thread: People are seeing the swamp, finally.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:17 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:07 pm
I'd be interested to hear others' opinions on the Dem voters' feelings about all of the wokeness, indignation against whites and men, and socialism.
So would I. I know there's not a whole lot of left wingers here, but if anyone even leaning in that direction could comment....Moda? Vinny?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by vnatale » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:43 pm

You asked. I'll answer. But I will NOT be brief.

When I was about 8 or 9 years old I read a book on the United States Presidents to that time. And, I decided that my three favorites were Jefferson, Lincoln, and Grant. Since they were all Republicans I decided I too was now a Republican. Many years later I found out that while Jefferson was called a Republican the parties later flip flopped so that he was really a Democrat. But I did not know that then.

This was truly an independent move on my part as I had no idea how my mother and father voted. In my 4th grade class that year (which was predominantly populated with Italian or Irish Roman Catholics (me being one of them)) myself and Nancy Johnson (who was referred to as being a "Holy Roller") were the only two in the 30+ class of kids who were NOT for Kennedy but, instead, for Nixon. How could I not be since I WAS a Republican. I just thought that all the other kids were for Kennedy because that was who their parents were for. This was in Rhode Island, then and now an extremely Democratic state. Plus an extremely Catholic one. And, with Kennedy being Catholic there was also that factor.

When 1964 rolled around, I was STILL a Republican and spent some time as a 13 year old passing out campaign literature for Goldwater.

By 1968, my senior year of high school, I was officially apathetic. I was later told that the night of the election was the night I saw Cream play for their last time ever (in Rhode Island). Their entire performance was them playing 2 songs for 45 minutes! I seem to remember the two songs as being Toad and Spoonful.

A year later I was a freshman in college and at the beginning of the year started reading underground newspapers and marched in the one of the innumerable anti Viet Nam War marches. I'd say that time period was the turning point of me NOT being a political conservative. That school year culminated in being arrested for protesting the draft the week after Kent State, which at the time set the record for the largest mass arrest ever in U.S. history. But that was soon eclipsed many times.

I cast my first vote ever in 1972, voting for McGovern. Next year I moved to Massachusetts, which had many cars with the bumper sticker - "Don't blame me. I'm from Massachusetts." -- in reference to Massachusetts being the ONLY state that Nixon did not win in 1972.

Since that first vote I have ALWAY voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. Always quite happily doing so and NEVER coming close to ever wanting to vote for the Republican presidential candidate.

However, For decades I was never straight Democrat. I used to use this as part of my email signature: "Another independent moderate who voted for a Republican, a Green/Rainbow, an Independent, and two Democrats in the November 2004 elections."

However, that all changed with the 2006 election. I have never voted for a Republican since that 2004 election. George Bush so damaged the Republican brand that I told myself that anyone who aligned his or herself with him by being in his party (and supporting him) would never get my vote.

So, while I have this pattern of Democratic voting, I have tons of conservative values.

Abortion - 100% against - none of the traditional exceptions (don't see philosophically how you can pick and choose if you really believe it is taking a life. My only exception would be if at the time of birth it was going to be a choice of the mother or the child's life.) In general, I've not seen any "anti"-abortion Republicans ever do anything that would cost them a single vote.

Fiscal - As an accountant I'm super conservative here. I live way below my income. I believe that if you are going to spend a certain amount you'd better be willing to tax enough to cover those expenses. Therefore no deficit.

Local government - I definitely believe that if it is your money you are spending it is spent more carefully. Right now there is going to be a vote on funding a new library in the town where I work. Just putting in round numbers - the state is willing to fund about half of the $20 million or so costs. I've not seen anyone NOT consider the state money as "free" money. And, conversely, I've not seen anyone consider it their money that went to that state, which the state taking some of it away, and then returning it in a lesser amount. I can guarantee the vote would be totally different if the town was looking upon taking on a $20 million expense (which they are really funding) rather than a $10 million expense.

Some of the other hot button issues?

Gays - Let everyone be who they want to be. It does not force me to be anyone I do not want to be.

Pro-life? I've already somewhat touched on this above regarding abortion. A friend and I have oftentimes discussed how we are both 100% pro-life. No abortions. Supporting people while they alive. And, not killing them in wars. Conversely we have Democrats having to be pro-abortion and Republicans not wanting to support mothers / families after the child is born and killing people in wars.

Immigrants - As the son of a father who came from Southern Italy (he could see Pompeii and Mt. Vesuvius) and whose maternal grand parents also came from Southern Italy only an hour away from my father's village (Amalfi Coast), I am big-time pro-immigrant. How could I not be? But legally. Our country put in super restrictive immigration laws in 1920 (that lasted until 1965). I have no idea how my father's poor family was let in around 1927.

I'm 100% capitalist. I've worked with too many people in business who have earned what they have earned through hard work, putting in long hours. I don't believe it should be taken away from them to support those who don't want to work as hard or for as long.

However do believe in the progressive tax system.

Don't believe that there should be preferential capital gains. I'm going to make the same investments with or without preferential capital gains treatment. And, those of us who can get capital gains treatment are in the upper ends of our society. Why do we need the help?

When a woman stopped at my house last year when she was running for either state representative or senator and gave me a brochure of all she was going to do, my only question to her was, "Who is going to pay for this?" I'm for appropriate government but not one that gives free things to everyone.

I'm a big-time believer in personal responsibility. But helping those on the lower ends of society.

I can put the current Democratic candidates in these categories:

1) My favorites - Buttigieg, Yang, Gabbard, Klobuchar
2) Okay - Booker, Castro
3) Only if it came down to them or Trump - Warren, Harris, Rourke
4) ABSOLUTLEY NEVER - I've be voting for some third party candidate - Bernie, Biden

In sum, I'd say that I'm still an Independent that leans Democrat but is not enamored with them. The Republicans and all their policies and the way they present themselves are generally quite repulsive to me.

Trump is highly entertaining but he has no business being president. I've not yet determined his level of intelligence. He has to have had something to get where he has financially. However, he's repeatedly demonstrated that he has no interest in doing the job of being president. I cannot respect that. And, know that he is only following in the footsteps of George Bush, who while intelligent, just did not want to put in the time and effort needed to be president of this country. And, I still consider that Trump has not even come close to damaging this country (and the rest of the world) in the ways (primarily the Iraq War) that George Bush did. All the deaths and casualties for both those of Iraq and our citizens. And, the huge financial cost. I truly believe that all the wrong paths Trump has taken this country in can be reversed by the next president. Those deaths and casualties and money spent can never be reversed.

Vinny

pugchief wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:17 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:07 pm
I'd be interested to hear others' opinions on the Dem voters' feelings about all of the wokeness, indignation against whites and men, and socialism.
So would I. I know there's not a whole lot of left wingers here, but if anyone even leaning in that direction could comment....Moda? Vinny?
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:47 pm

Vinny, thanks for sharing that story. Unfortunately, you did not answer the question:

opinions on the Dem voters' feelings about all of the wokeness, indignation against whites and men, and socialism.

Well, you did say you are a capitalist, but would prefer Warren to Trump? What about the wokeness and anti-white male attitudes?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by sophie » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:49 am

Vinny, yes thanks for sharing. I also have a few questions:

Is your dislike of the Republican party rooted mainly in the Middle East wars? That is quite understandable, but realize that Democrats were on the same page with both of these at the time. In fact, some of the most prominent pro-war "neocons" were Democrats. Are there other Republican party positions that you dislike, and which?

I think you're painting immigration with a very broad brush. There's very little similarity between the early 20th century immigration waves and what's happening now. Perhaps you can be a bit more specific about, for example, whether the "open-borders" politics of most Democratic candidates appeals to you? I'm genuinely curious about this, because most liberal voters I know are kind of the same way: they like immigration in the abstract and are quick to label any position that proposes to limit immigration in any way as "racist", but when it comes to the gates being thrown wide open at the southern border you start hearing some backpedaling.

I also can't quite reconcile "100% capitalist" with any of the Democratic candidates you mentioned. Yang is pushing for a UBI for example. Are you in favor of that? (Spoiler alert - I am, but it must be paired with a law limiting citizenship to children of citizens or permanent US (legal) residents, AND it must replace all current federal non-medical welfare programs including Social Security).
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by shekels » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:51 am

vnatale wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:43 pm
You asked. I'll answer. But I will NOT be brief.

When I was about 8 or 9 years old I read a book on the United States Presidents to that time. And, I decided that my three favorites were Jefferson, Lincoln, and Grant. Since they were all Republicans I decided I too was now a Republican. Many years later I found out that while Jefferson was called a Republican the parties later flip flopped so that he was really a Democrat. But I did not know that then.


pugchief wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:17 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:07 pm
I'd be interested to hear others' opinions on the Dem voters' feelings about all of the wokeness, indignation against whites and men, and socialism.
So would I. I know there's not a whole lot of left wingers here, but if anyone even leaning in that direction could comment....Moda? Vinny?
I am not sure that is correct that the parties "flip flopped'
I have heard this statement before and in looking into it did not add up.
Now if it happened beginning in 1800's then maybe I missed something.

But from what I saw the switch was suppose to take place around 1960's.
With that I present Senator Robert Byrd, Exalted Cyclops of the Ku Klux Klan
The Democrat from West Virginia.
So what am I missing on the so called Flip?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by vnatale » Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:59 am

I was giving the background of why I'm an independent who now votes almost exclusively Democrat but who does not consider myself a Democrat.

I've never prior seen the word "wokeness". Did not know if you'd mis-spelled some other word. But was surprised to see this definition for it:

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define. ... m=wokeness
Self-righteousness masquerading as enlightenment.

Not something that has struck me as being descriptive of any or all the Democratic candidates. Does this not at all describe Trump or any other current Republican incumbents?

You are going to have to give me specific examples of how specific Democratic candidates are demonstrating this.

I'm not seeing "indignation against whites and men" as being a constant, overriding theme.

And, I have already addressed socialism.

I do have Warren in my third category, which means that while she does not appeal to me at all, I don't totally detest her. That means she is just one above NEVER. But that still keeps her, on balance, as being superior to Trump.

I just cannot supports sloths as presidents (and I don't like here being pejorative towards a set of animals but I cannot think of a better description). Trump fits the Reagan, 2nd Bush tradition of wanting and having the office but refusing to put in the time necessary to fulfill the duties of the position. I have worked with so many other people in such lesser positions who have been far more dedicated to fulfilling the duties of their jobs than this trio of presidents have.

The fact that Warren became a law professor tells me that she is either brilliant and it required no work on her part to get there or she is no stranger to hard work and embraced the work necessary to fulfill her responsibilities / goals. In either case that makes her superior to Trump.

Vinny

pugchief wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:47 pm
Vinny, thanks for sharing that story. Unfortunately, you did not answer the question:

opinions on the Dem voters' feelings about all of the wokeness, indignation against whites and men, and socialism.

Well, you did say you are a capitalist, but would prefer Warren to Trump? What about the wokeness and anti-white male attitudes?
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by vnatale » Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:36 am

My dislike of the Republican party is not rooted mainly in the Middle East wars.

I like to think that I make my decisions how I think (as a classic ISTJ (with nothing close on any of the four components)). But I have to also pay attention when I have intense feelings.

And, just about any time a Republican speaks (former Senators Tom Coburn and Ron Paul being rare exceptions) I have extreme negative emotional reactions.

I was quite upset when it was announced on Election night Bush was declared the winner over Gore. I knew it was going to be bad for our country as I'd read a book about Bush and it described his slothfulness as the Texas governor. But even I was not prepared for how bad he actually became. And, just about EVERY single Republican supported him in EVERY action (e.g., tax cuts, Iraq War). I'd say that is a strongest reason why I now detest the Republican brand.

On the night that Trump was announced as president. I'm forgetting was it 3 AM or 4 AM? After Trump spoke I remarked to my friend that I had none of these same feelings of dread that I'd had when I heard the prior Bush announcement. Instead, even though he was not my candidate I knew he was not a real Republican or even a politician so who knew how he would really be as a president. I just thought this would be an interesting presidency to observe. I was amazed at how calm I was feeling about the whole thing without all the usual intense negative emotions towards a Republican and what he / she has to say. Then, just after Trump's acceptance speech some typical, generic Republican senator (?) spoke. And, I got all worked up emotionally because he said just about every single typical Republican thing that evokes a negative reaction in me.

Are you aware that in the late 1800's Italians immigrated to the South where they were considered just a level above Blacks? And, they were considered so close to Blacks that there was this lynching?

"The March 14, 1891 New Orleans lynchings were the murders of eleven Italian Americans in New Orleans, Louisiana by a mob for their alleged role in the murder of police chief David Hennessy after some of them had been acquitted at trial. It was the largest single mass lynching in U.S. history."

Therefore I'm sensitive to a certain brand of people being labeled sub-human and react negatively to Trump casting such wide dispersions as he does to those of other countries and who are generally non-white.

I did state above that I believe in legal immigration. And, I believe that Obama was aggressive in deporting many illegal immigrants. However, I do believe in a liberal legal immigrant policy.

Take a look at this graph;

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/program ... -Residents

1920 was the year the restrictive policy was passed. 430,000 that year.

Somehow it went to 850,000 the next year - 1921 (but still below the peak of 1,285,000 in 1907). I see my father and his family got in among the 335,000 in 1927, But I'm seeing he got in before the low of 23,000 in 1933. I also see that that last peak of 850,000 in 1921 was not exceeded until 68 years later in 1989.

I constantly watch C-Span. Therefore I'll see Yang speak for an hour. Even longer. Not just in the tiny snippets he's allowed in the debates. He fits one of my strong attractions for any candidate - being endowed with plenty of brain power. And, he moved me from one end to the other in his explanation of the universal basic income. He explained that by doing this it would do away with many governmental support programs and would lead to less overall expenditures in the long run. He said we are basically already spending the money.

Finally how is the Republicans (2nd Bush's tax cuts and Trump's tax cuts) stance towards the deficit explained? As I stated in my story, my basic is if you are approving expenditures then you must have tax rates that cover those expenditures. The ultimate logic of the Republican position is that we should have negative tax rates (which brings back to Yang!) as that would spur unbelievable economic activity! Instead, each tax cut seems to produce a deficit equal to that tax cut. Totally irresponsible!

Vinny
sophie wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:49 am
Vinny, yes thanks for sharing. I also have a few questions:

Is your dislike of the Republican party rooted mainly in the Middle East wars? That is quite understandable, but realize that Democrats were on the same page with both of these at the time. In fact, some of the most prominent pro-war "neocons" were Democrats. Are there other Republican party positions that you dislike, and which?

I think you're painting immigration with a very broad brush. There's very little similarity between the early 20th century immigration waves and what's happening now. Perhaps you can be a bit more specific about, for example, whether the "open-borders" politics of most Democratic candidates appeals to you? I'm genuinely curious about this, because most liberal voters I know are kind of the same way: they like immigration in the abstract and are quick to label any position that proposes to limit immigration in any way as "racist", but when it comes to the gates being thrown wide open at the southern border you start hearing some backpedaling.

I also can't quite reconcile "100% capitalist" with any of the Democratic candidates you mentioned. Yang is pushing for a UBI for example. Are you in favor of that? (Spoiler alert - I am, but it must be paired with a law limiting citizenship to children of citizens or permanent US (legal) residents, AND it must replace all current federal non-medical welfare programs including Social Security).
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by vnatale » Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:40 am

https://legal-dictionary.thefreediction ... ican+Party

Democratic-Republican Party
The Jeffersonian Republican party, better known as the Democratic-Republican Party, is an ancestor of the modern Democratic Party.


It was something like this that I later read that stated that while Jefferson was a Republican when elected that party was really what we would currently consider the Democratic party.


Vinny
shekels wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:51 am
vnatale wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:43 pm
You asked. I'll answer. But I will NOT be brief.

When I was about 8 or 9 years old I read a book on the United States Presidents to that time. And, I decided that my three favorites were Jefferson, Lincoln, and Grant. Since they were all Republicans I decided I too was now a Republican. Many years later I found out that while Jefferson was called a Republican the parties later flip flopped so that he was really a Democrat. But I did not know that then.


pugchief wrote:
Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:17 pm

So would I. I know there's not a whole lot of left wingers here, but if anyone even leaning in that direction could comment....Moda? Vinny?
I am not sure that is correct that the parties "flip flopped'
I have heard this statement before and in looking into it did not add up.
Now if it happened beginning in 1800's then maybe I missed something.

But from what I saw the switch was suppose to take place around 1960's.
With that I present Senator Robert Byrd, Exalted Cyclops of the Ku Klux Klan
The Democrat from West Virginia.
So what am I missing on the so called Flip?
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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