Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
pmward
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pmward » Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:56 pm

Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:05 pm
Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?
This would make my dreams come true :) Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:08 pm

Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:05 pm
Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?
When was the last time a party chose someone other than the sitting president to be their nominee?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:29 pm

Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:05 pm
Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?
pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:56 pm
This would make my dreams come true :) Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.
He has like a 90% approval rating among Republicans, why would they try to replace him? To use the parlance of our times, they're not tired of winning yet.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pmward » Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:04 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:29 pm
Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:05 pm
Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?
pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:56 pm
This would make my dreams come true :) Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.
He has like a 90% approval rating among Republicans, why would they try to replace him? To use the parlance of our times, they're not tired of winning yet.
He stands at a 41% approval rating overall. That's about his average; and his average approval rating is one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern history. Even lower than Obama. Not sure there's a lot of "winning" going on there.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by flyingpylon » Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:03 pm

The “winning” has nothing to do with opinion polls.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:09 pm

pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:04 pm
He stands at a 41% approval rating overall. That's about his average; and his average approval rating is one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern history. Even lower than Obama. Not sure there's a lot of "winning" going on there.
Well, I don't think that it would be smart, and I don't agree that not running a candidate against your own party's sitting president is a result of spinelessness.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pmward » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:50 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:09 pm
pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:04 pm
He stands at a 41% approval rating overall. That's about his average; and his average approval rating is one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern history. Even lower than Obama. Not sure there's a lot of "winning" going on there.
Well, I don't think that it would be smart, and I don't agree that not running a candidate against your own party's sitting president is a result of spinelessness.
I didn't say that not running a candidate against a sitting president is "spineless" in all cases. But it is in this case. There are Republican politicians that have been very vocal critics of Trump, but they don't have the cajones to really try to do anything about it. The only reason he has "support" of the Republican politicians in congress is simply because they don't have much choice, if they don't go along with Trump then they are basically going along with the Dems. It's a lose/lose more situation.

Either way, I don't think it really matters. As much as I detest Trump as a person, I've already resigned the fact that there is no realistic "lesser evil" apparent at the moment. With even a halfway decent candidate Trump would basically defeat himself. But is there even a halfway decent option willing to run? I don't see one at the moment.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:58 am

Tulsi looks great in a bikini. I'm willing to vote for her. Oh, was that not PC?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:09 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:58 am
Tulsi looks great in a bikini. I'm willing to vote for her. Oh, was that not PC?
She’s beautiful.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:44 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:09 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:58 am
Tulsi looks great in a bikini. I'm willing to vote for her. Oh, was that not PC?
She’s beautiful.

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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:29 pm

pmward wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:50 am
I didn't say that not running a candidate against a sitting president is "spineless" in all cases. But it is in this case. There are Republican politicians that have been very vocal critics of Trump, but they don't have the cajones to really try to do anything about it. The only reason he has "support" of the Republican politicians in congress is simply because they don't have much choice, if they don't go along with Trump then they are basically going along with the Dems. It's a lose/lose more situation.
Well, I meant that to mean Trump, not just in general. Because I would agree with you if the president was utterly failing and nobody liked him. But if 90% of his party likes him and he's moving the ball forward, that's not enough of a reason to get rid of him. There was one guy who left the Republican party because he doesn't like Trump (Amash, from Michigan), which is certainly putting your money where your mouth is.
Either way, I don't think it really matters. As much as I detest Trump as a person, I've already resigned the fact that there is no realistic "lesser evil" apparent at the moment. With even a halfway decent candidate Trump would basically defeat himself. But is there even a halfway decent option willing to run? I don't see one at the moment.
That's the spirit ;D
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:56 pm

Yang. I'd use the $1000 a month to buy gold bullion. Of course it would buy a less and less gold per month...
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