Will Trump be Re-elected?

[pugchief]

When I started this poll 2 years ago, the two top vote getters, with well over 50% of the total votes, involved Trump getting re-elected. Are you guys starting to think otherwise? Sorry to get off topic here.

[pmward]

I do think that he is the most vulnerable of any president in my lifetime (Reagan on). I think he is even more vulnerable than Bush Sr. was. I mean Trump has done nothing but be his own worst enemy for the last 2 years of his term. I have never seen the general public so violently opposed to a president before. He has a small but incredibly loyal core base (when I say small, I mean they are too small to get him re-elected on their own), but he won the election from the blue collar swing vote, and he has done nothing but piss on those blue collar swing voters since being elected. I think the Dems know that's why they lost, and they know those people are disgruntled, so they will be a key target for the Dems. The problem? Do the Dems actually have a strong candidate? I don't think they do. The most popular candidates they have are socialists. The only thing worse than Trump is socialism. If they have some surprise strong non-socialist candidate emerge and rise to the top of the pack, I think Trump goes down easily. However, without a halfway decent opponent, we are all stuck with with Trump for another very long 4 years.

[dualstow]

When I started this poll 2 years ago, the two top vote getters, with well over 50% of the total votes, involved Trump getting re-elected. Are you guys starting to think otherwise? Sorry to get off topic here.

I have been turned around by people on this forum and other sources. Open-minded or soft-headed? Either way, I am now confident that he has very good odds of winning.

Yes, I still take potshots at his character. And we will only know in retrospect whether all this tariff bluster is going to get China to shape up, or if the end result is going to be large companies scrambling to move manufacturing to Vietnam while many small and medium businesses simply die. But there are some things that he does that I like.

Sometimes you have to do what’s right, not what’s popular in the warped worlds of twitter or reddit.

I’m not sure I could vote for the guy, but I wonder who’s out there who could defeat him.

[pugchief]

Well my prediction is that by this time next year or sooner, the tariff war is over and the stock market rallies him to victory. Cuz as Bill Clinton famously said, "It's the economy, stupid." All the other nonsense is noise. People like jobs and prosperity. And I agree with pmward that if the Dems go with a Socialist, they will lose. The country isn't ready for that sh!t yet. Our only hope to prevent that from taking hold here is for the movement to die off like the hippies did when the Vietnam war ended. Maybe the return of disco?

[dualstow]

Well my prediction is that by this time next year or sooner, the tariff war is over and the stock market rallies him to victory.

The stock newsletter guy I listen to has been repeatedly saying much the same thing. He’s selling a stock newsletter so one has to consider the source, but it’s good to hear, even if cheap stocks are probably better for my future than soaring stocks and the comfort they bring.

[Kriegsspiel]

I don't think there's a Democratic candidate that can beat him. They really seem to have turned a corner.

[Smith1776]

Alright guys, placing my current bets as follows:

- 1 gram of gold on Bernie Sanders winning
- 1 ounce of silver on Elizabeth Warren winning

Additional bets pending.

[Xan]

Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

[pmward]

Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

This would make my dreams come true Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.

[pugchief]

Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

When was the last time a party chose someone other than the sitting president to be their nominee?

[Kriegsspiel]

Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

This would make my dreams come true Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.

He has like a 90% approval rating among Republicans, why would they try to replace him? To use the parlance of our times, they're not tired of winning yet.

[pmward]

Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

This would make my dreams come true Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.

He has like a 90% approval rating among Republicans, why would they try to replace him? To use the parlance of our times, they're not tired of winning yet.

He stands at a 41% approval rating overall. That's about his average; and his average approval rating is one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern history. Even lower than Obama. Not sure there's a lot of "winning" going on there.