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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:05 pm
by Xan
Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:56 pm
by pmward
Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:05 pm
Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?
This would make my dreams come true :) Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:29 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:05 pm
Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?
pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:56 pm
This would make my dreams come true :) Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.
He has like a 90% approval rating among Republicans, why would they try to replace him? To use the parlance of our times, they're not tired of winning yet.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:04 pm
by pmward
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:29 pm
Xan wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:05 pm
Is there any way he's vulnerable in the primaries? Could a non-Trump nominee win the general?
pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 3:56 pm
This would make my dreams come true :) Unfortunately, I don't think that the Republican Party has enough of a spine to perform a primary mutiny. Even if it would be best for them long term, all political parties and politicians in the U.S. tend to be very risk adverse and try to take the easiest route forward. I just simply don't think they have the cajones to take that risk, but I would love to be surprised.
He has like a 90% approval rating among Republicans, why would they try to replace him? To use the parlance of our times, they're not tired of winning yet.
He stands at a 41% approval rating overall. That's about his average; and his average approval rating is one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern history. Even lower than Obama. Not sure there's a lot of "winning" going on there.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:03 pm
by flyingpylon
The “winning” has nothing to do with opinion polls.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:09 pm
by Kriegsspiel
pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:04 pm
He stands at a 41% approval rating overall. That's about his average; and his average approval rating is one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern history. Even lower than Obama. Not sure there's a lot of "winning" going on there.
Well, I don't think that it would be smart, and I don't agree that not running a candidate against your own party's sitting president is a result of spinelessness.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:50 am
by pmward
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 8:09 pm
pmward wrote:
Sun Aug 25, 2019 6:04 pm
He stands at a 41% approval rating overall. That's about his average; and his average approval rating is one of the lowest approval ratings of any president in modern history. Even lower than Obama. Not sure there's a lot of "winning" going on there.
Well, I don't think that it would be smart, and I don't agree that not running a candidate against your own party's sitting president is a result of spinelessness.
I didn't say that not running a candidate against a sitting president is "spineless" in all cases. But it is in this case. There are Republican politicians that have been very vocal critics of Trump, but they don't have the cajones to really try to do anything about it. The only reason he has "support" of the Republican politicians in congress is simply because they don't have much choice, if they don't go along with Trump then they are basically going along with the Dems. It's a lose/lose more situation.

Either way, I don't think it really matters. As much as I detest Trump as a person, I've already resigned the fact that there is no realistic "lesser evil" apparent at the moment. With even a halfway decent candidate Trump would basically defeat himself. But is there even a halfway decent option willing to run? I don't see one at the moment.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:58 am
by ochotona
Tulsi looks great in a bikini. I'm willing to vote for her. Oh, was that not PC?

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:09 pm
by dualstow
ochotona wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:58 am
Tulsi looks great in a bikini. I'm willing to vote for her. Oh, was that not PC?
She’s beautiful.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:44 pm
by ochotona
dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:09 pm
ochotona wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:58 am
Tulsi looks great in a bikini. I'm willing to vote for her. Oh, was that not PC?
She’s beautiful.

Citizen's Dividend... free poi and mac salad!

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:29 pm
by Kriegsspiel
pmward wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:50 am
I didn't say that not running a candidate against a sitting president is "spineless" in all cases. But it is in this case. There are Republican politicians that have been very vocal critics of Trump, but they don't have the cajones to really try to do anything about it. The only reason he has "support" of the Republican politicians in congress is simply because they don't have much choice, if they don't go along with Trump then they are basically going along with the Dems. It's a lose/lose more situation.
Well, I meant that to mean Trump, not just in general. Because I would agree with you if the president was utterly failing and nobody liked him. But if 90% of his party likes him and he's moving the ball forward, that's not enough of a reason to get rid of him. There was one guy who left the Republican party because he doesn't like Trump (Amash, from Michigan), which is certainly putting your money where your mouth is.
Either way, I don't think it really matters. As much as I detest Trump as a person, I've already resigned the fact that there is no realistic "lesser evil" apparent at the moment. With even a halfway decent candidate Trump would basically defeat himself. But is there even a halfway decent option willing to run? I don't see one at the moment.
That's the spirit ;D

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:56 pm
by ochotona
Yang. I'd use the $1000 a month to buy gold bullion. Of course it would buy a less and less gold per month...

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:06 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Yang seems like a really good dude.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:07 pm
by pmward
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:29 pm
Well, I meant that to mean Trump, not just in general. Because I would agree with you if the president was utterly failing and nobody liked him. But if 90% of his party likes him and he's moving the ball forward, that's not enough of a reason to get rid of him. There was one guy who left the Republican party because he doesn't like Trump (Amash, from Michigan), which is certainly putting your money where your mouth is.
Jeff Flake gave up his seat because of Trump as well, and has publicly stated that the U.S. would be better with a Dem president in 2020 than with Trump. There are other quotes I've read (though I didn't save links so they are not handy) of Republican congressmen making negative comments about Trump and his policies. Trump is doing more harm than good, and I think most of the actual Republican politicians realize this. Most of his policies are completely opposite of traditional Republican policies, as such they are opposite of most of the Republican congressmen. His brainwashed lay-followers on the other hand would still cheer for him regardless of what he did. He literally could repeat everything Hitler did, and they would still cheer. Most of the lay-Republicans are uneducated and are just happy he is not Obama, Bernie, AOC, or have the last name Clinton HAHA. So I don't put much weight into the Republican only approval ratings. His historically low overall approval rating tells the real story.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:01 pm
by dualstow
Yang, yup. I like him.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:28 pm
by drumminj
pmward wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:07 pm
His brainwashed lay-followers on the other hand would still cheer for him regardless of what he did.
Do we really need the ad-hominems here? You may not like someone, and disagree with their behaviors or policies, but are you really intending to say that anyone reading here who supports our sitting president is "brainwashed"????

Edit: "to" -> "who"

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:45 am
by WiseOne
drumminj wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:28 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:07 pm
His brainwashed lay-followers on the other hand would still cheer for him regardless of what he did.
Do we really need the ad-hominems here? You may not like someone, and disagree with their behaviors or policies, but are you really intending to say that anyone reading here to supports our sitting president is "brainwashed"????
If there's any brainwashing going on, it's by the mainstream media.

Whether you like Trump as a person or not, though, is beside the point. The Democrats are going to run either Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. I can't see Joe Biden being allowed to run, even though he's the one I'd be most likely to vote for. Bernie Sanders has proposed a 16 TRILLION $ version of the Green New Deal, and plans to pay for it by increasing taxes on "the rich" by (according to posted details of his tax plan) increasing taxes across the board by ~15%. He's gone much further to the left since the last election and even just in the last month, it looks like to me. Elizabeth Warren has an assortment of $1-2 trillion $ proposals, and plans to pay for them with a new wealth tax (for a start). All are open-borders enthusiasts, which is not as popular a position as the press likes to think. It's not clear if there will be a Republican primary challenger. Nikki Haley, William Weld, and Jeff Flake could very likely defeat Trump in the primary, but so far no one has stepped up except *maybe* William Weld.

No matter who the Republicans run, though, I think they'll win simply because the center left/middle/right population won't be able to stomach those extreme left platforms. What it may come down to is this: how much are you willing to pay out of your own pocket for the pleasure of not hearing about Trump's tweets? Bernie Sanders, if he gets his way, will cost me in the neighborhood of $30,000 a year. I have a much cheaper option: don't read the news. As far any potential economic fallout, the PP will take care of things nicely. Sorry to be selfish but that's just how it is.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:02 am
by drumminj
WiseOne wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:45 am
how much are you willing to pay out of your own pocket for the pleasure of not hearing about Trump's tweets?
Sadly, many people are happy to pay out of other peoples' pockets, which is how many will think of any "wealth tax".

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:47 am
by pmward
drumminj wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:28 pm
pmward wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:07 pm
His brainwashed lay-followers on the other hand would still cheer for him regardless of what he did.
Do we really need the ad-hominems here? You may not like someone, and disagree with their behaviors or policies, but are you really intending to say that anyone reading here who supports our sitting president is "brainwashed"????

Edit: "to" -> "who"
I don't think anyone who really takes an unbiased look at Trumps actions can come to the conclusion that his motives are good, that he is a good person, that he is a good leader, or that he deserves to be the president. Judge the tree by the fruit it bears. The fruit we have gotten from Trump is all rotten to the core.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:06 am
by pmward
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:01 am
pmward wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:47 am
drumminj wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:28 pm


Do we really need the ad-hominems here? You may not like someone, and disagree with their behaviors or policies, but are you really intending to say that anyone reading here who supports our sitting president is "brainwashed"????

Edit: "to" -> "who"
I don't think anyone who really takes an unbiased look at Trumps actions can come to the conclusion that his motives are good, that he is a good person, that he is a good leader, or that he deserves to be the president. Judge the tree by the fruit it bears, and the fruit we have gotten from Trump is all rotten to the core.
Maybe you ought to consider that there are people who honestly disagree with you.

Me, for example. I believe Trump is in general a good person, that his motives are basically sound, and that he has accomplished a lot against tremendous opposition.

And I'm not a die-hard Republican. I voted for Obama the first time because he was running against McCain, and I still think McCain would have been worse.
What is the fruit we have gotten from Trump? Regular Tweet-storms with no intellectual backing or sense behind them, a Cold War with China, a deteriorating economy that is weak and potentially on the verge of recession, what is one step away from concentration camps for illegal aliens, more political and civil unrest than we have had in the post-Vietnam era, policies that have led to a widening wealth gap, a war against the Federal Reserves independence in a selfish bid to buy himself re-election (calling the Fed chair he nominated an enemy of the state in public, really??), a president that is threatening to completely disband the Federal reserve so he can take charge of monetary policy. How is this the actions of a "good person"?!?! How are these "sound motives"?!?! I'm dying to hear how these evils can be twisted and distorted to sound like they are good.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:11 am
by pmward
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:10 am
pmward wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:06 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:01 am


Maybe you ought to consider that there are people who honestly disagree with you.

Me, for example. I believe Trump is in general a good person, that his motives are basically sound, and that he has accomplished a lot against tremendous opposition.

And I'm not a die-hard Republican. I voted for Obama the first time because he was running against McCain, and I still think McCain would have been worse.
What is the fruit we have gotten from Trump? Regular Tweet-storms with no intellectual backing or sense behind them, a Cold War with China, a deteriorating economy that is weak and potentially on the verge of recession, what is one step away from concentration camps for illegal aliens, more political and civil unrest than we have had in the post-Vietnam era, policies that have led to a widening wealth gap, a war against the Federal Reserves independence in a selfish bid to buy himself re-election (calling the Fed chair he nominated an enemy of the state in public, really??), a president that is threatening to completely disband the Federal reserve so he can take charge of monetary policy. How is this the actions of a "good person"?!?! How are these "sound motives"?!?! I'm dying to hear how these evils can be twisted and distorted to sound like they are good.
I hope you recover from your TDS.
Avoiding answering the question I asked and failure to address the very valid points I raised, while insulting me as a person, is not a way to win the debate.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:22 am
by InsuranceGuy
[deleted]

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:24 am
by flyingpylon
pmward wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:06 am
What is the fruit we have gotten from Trump? Regular Tweet-storms with no intellectual backing or sense behind them, a Cold War with China, a deteriorating economy that is weak and potentially on the verge of recession, what is one step away from concentration camps for illegal aliens, more political and civil unrest than we have had in the post-Vietnam era, policies that have led to a widening wealth gap, a war against the Federal Reserves independence in a selfish bid to buy himself re-election (calling the Fed chair he nominated an enemy of the state in public, really??), a president that is threatening to completely disband the Federal reserve so he can take charge of monetary policy. How is this the actions of a "good person"?!?! How are these "sound motives"?!?! I'm dying to hear how these evils can be twisted and distorted to sound like they are good.
What are your most frequently visited or watched news sources?

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:31 am
by pmward
EDIT: deleting comment and leaving conversation, as I can feel this discussion is having a negative effect on my inner peace, and it's just not worth it, imo.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:22 pm
by Ad Orientem
National Review: Trump — or What, Exactly?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/08/ ... t-critics/

An interesting piece. I am not a Trump fan at all. But they do raise some fair points.