Will Trump be Re-elected?

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
38%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
10%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
14
22%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
4
6%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 63
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8151
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:25 am

Maddy wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:12 am
flyingpylon wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:52 am
Xan wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:57 pm
He was asking whether flyingpylon's suggestion applied to the pro-Trump ones.
It didn’t, because the discussion was specifically about Trump.

But generally speaking, I don’t advise that people allow things that bother them to live rent-free in their head. It doesn’t seem healthy. A guy named Harry Browne explained it better in his book “How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World”.

That said, everyone needs to do what’s right for them. Sometimes it takes a while to figure out what that is.
Yeah, I've thought about Harry Brown's "How I Found Freedom" book over and over as we've seen this anti-Trump movement play out. There couldn't be a more salient example of the "traps" Harry Browne talks about, especially when it comes to what he calls "direct alternatives" and "indirect" ones. The key for him is to make individual choices that actually move us forward toward our objectives--not choices that represent futile cathartic gestures or choices that expect other people to change (or that require them to do so). Significantly, the "progressive" platform is the antithesis of everything Harry stood for.
Well not everything. If we are discussing policy preferences, “the left,” while definitely leaving lots to be desired, is probably a bit more anti-war on average (though I’m increasingly wondering how unuseful this gap is), better on the war on drugs, and certain police-related civil liberties issues that Harry championed on a public policy level.

But to your other point I think you’re right, but I mostly discovered that, when I encountered a freshly unthinking left (they seemed ok at questioning authority til bush left), a sort of clueless libertarian submovement thinking Austrian economics was being proven correct, and the vociferously anti-Obama right wing going absolutely bat-shit.

Of course, now we have wings of both pro- and anti-Trumpers looking like utter fools.

HIFFIAUW is an amazing book imo. I mostly debate politics for sport and to overlap with other theories about people’s critical thinking skills. It’s not something I lose sleep over, but it certainly could take up less of my podcast queue.
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8151
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:28 am

pugchief wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:40 pm
Maddy wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:10 pm
moda0306 wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:01 pm

What about your insane obsession with "The Left?" Sounds a lot like the conservatives who b!tched about Obama for 8 years claiming he was a muslim traitor commie.

I'm sure there are plenty of Americans, including but definitely not limited to tens of millions of moronic conservatives, that substitute a focus on self-improvement for a focus on all the political wrongs they are "victims" of, and the impending doom of (insert political bogeyman here), when in reality they're just bitter and suck at life and want to point the finger at someone other than themselves. To think it's limited to liberals is a bit asinine.
My disrespect for the Left hasn't kept me from moving forward in my life. I've achieved nearly everything I wanted to and am, by at least my own standards, living the "dream life." Contrast that to an ever-increasing number of progressives, particularly in the millennial age group, who have declared it impossible to succeed in life because of all the impediments that the rest of the world has put in their paths.
^This
moda0306 wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:01 pm

{Trump's} knuckle-dragging perma-defenders/supporters ...and... moronic conservatives
Don't you think that ad hominem attacks (particularly against people who aren't even here to defend themselves - or are you talking about the rest of us here?) cheapen your argument?
An ad hominem is a logical fallacy. Not an attack on someone’s character or intelligence per-aw. I’m not trying to build an argument from my insults, but merely use them as icing on the cake. I think they perhaps distract from my argument. But you can easily ignore them if you like. For the record I would say plenty on “the left” are totally clueless. When my insufferable feminist college professor gets the nuclear codes, I’ll ridicule them. Right now Trump is the one in power so “the Right” is rightfully the usual punching bag.
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8151
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:44 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:52 am
Xan wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:57 pm
He was asking whether flyingpylon's suggestion applied to the pro-Trump ones.
It didn’t, because the discussion was specifically about Trump.

But generally speaking, I don’t advise that people allow things that bother them to live rent-free in their head. It doesn’t seem healthy. A guy named Harry Browne explained it better in his book “How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World”.

That said, everyone needs to do what’s right for them. Sometimes it takes a while to figure out what that is.
The discussion being about Trump is no-good reason to focus only on his detractors if his supporters are equally (if-not more-so) unwilling to change their opinion of Trump in the face of evidence.

In-fact, considering Trump is the head of the most powerful killing machine in the history of the world, the flaws of people who support him are far more worth-discussion than those who either sloppily or accurately hold his feet to the fire.
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8151
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:10 am

Xan wrote:
Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:57 pm
I think Moda is saying that the phenomenon of people blaming things outside their control for things going wrong in their lives is not unique to one side of the proverbial aisle. As far as how prevalent it is one place versus another, I don't know. Can anybody come up with something approaching hard numbers?

I think Moda would agree (not to speak for you!) that there are knuckle-dragging perma-supporters on both sides of the aisle as well. He was asking whether flyingpylon's suggestion applied to the pro-Trump ones.

There's no need to pile on Moda, and Moda probably could be a little better about being less abrasive. Let's stay a place where people who disagree can discuss things reasonably rather than another echo chamber.
I don't feel piled on, but thanks for moderating the room a bit. I do lay on a heavy-ish level of snark atop my arguments & assertions, so I understand the distaste to it. That-said, the implicit leftward-directed ire around here carries so much implicit ad-hom and personal-attack garble that I don't mind coming righto out with it.

While I tend to use "knuckle-dragging" almost entirely towards the right, it's more out of a will for some good snark-branding than an attempt to assert they're all dumber than dems/libruls, and I reserve terms for the left more aligned with my issues with them, such as virtue-signalling, willingness to be piss-poor on anti-war or civil libertarian stuff when it suits their tribal instincts, corporate/establishment, SJW-obsession or commie wings get a heaping of praise. Those don't lend themselves as well to snarky names, but my favs are feminazi, "militant leftist," commie, etc. Like I said weak sauce but for now I insist on keeping knuckle-dragging squarely on "the right" as it just works too well. If it helps anyone to know where my alignments are, I'd probably vote for most dems before Trump, but my top picks are Tulsi Gabbard & Andrew Yang, with Bernie bringing up the rear mostly out of being a genuine dude and him being solid on civil libertarianism and foreign policy (though he doesn't champion those issues, the Presidency naturally tilts itself very heavily towards those being important, as he's in so much direct control). Bernie's a bit fast and loose on economics, but he's not king, he's president.

But I'd be preaching to the choir on this forum if I dogged on "the left" constantly. It's such a huge crutch for "the right" and their terrible ideas and/or swampy pragmatism just to "own the libs" it's sickening. If I have to point out some basic lack of balanced-thought facts around here (such as that the left and right are both utterly dogged by fowl people, terrible ideas, astonishing corruption, childish behavior, and horseshit critical thinking skills), then that's where my efforts are best placed in political discussion here.

Lastly, I'd like to point out (and I'd be curious to see if people agree with me), in my family, personal and professional life, I see very little correlation between the quality of person you are as a human and your politics. Sure there are certain issues that tend to bring out the shit-head wing of both sides of the political spectrum, but for the most some of the best people I know (and people I'm quite sure most here would say are fantastic human-beings) are both of the "right" and "left" politically. Similarly, some of the sketchiest shit-balls I know are, similarly, of both the "right" and "left."

Do people here really see a high correlation between political leanings and quality of human in their personal lives? Maddy appears to. I just don't see it. I know plenty of very successful and happy millennials, and plenty of utterly lost and bitter and utter-failure baby-boomers. Even though I insist that as a generation the only good thing Boomers gave us was classic rock music as they drove our country like a rental car, I think many of them are personally very kind, thoughtful, responsible, praiseworthy people, and plenty of them (again) are conservatives... plenty are liberals.

Statistics seem to also bear this out (bare this out??). When you look at city vs country, blue states vs red states, I see very little correlation between politics and quality of people, if perhaps a slight benefit to "the left," though I could see someone argue (at-most) a slight benefit to "the right."

Anyway this is probably a post for another thread (moderators? you know I'm not moving it... I can't even size my pics right), but I am baffled at how some folks are willing to levy very personal stakes on what are political questions. Yes I realize "knuckle-dragging" seems to do the same, but that was meant as a very political-oriented insult, not personal.

To pull outside the political box a bit, there are quite a few amazing people that I know (thankfully including my GF) who are simply NOT political, but if you press them they could give you an opinion you disagree with vehemently, but who really cares that sweet aunt Mable isn't a perfect civil libertarian on the drug war because you asked her sternly if black-tar heroin should be sold on her street corner and she nervously said no. :)
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3070
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by sophie » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:20 am

moda0306 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:44 am
The discussion being about Trump is no-good reason to focus only on his detractors if his supporters are equally (if-not more-so) unwilling to change their opinion of Trump in the face of evidence.

In-fact, considering Trump is the head of the most powerful killing machine in the history of the world, the flaws of people who support him are far more worth-discussion than those who either sloppily or accurately hold his feet to the fire.
OK I'll take this one on....

Basically I'm with Cortopassi. I think we all agree that Trump's temper tantrums, factual errors, twitter storms, management style, etc probably qualify him as a pretty lousy human being.

If you're still sticking with the majority of mainstream America, what you're saying is that Trump's personal style is far more relevant to you and more important overall than, say, the 100,000 dead Iraqi civilians, the trail of destruction in the Middle East, the skyrocketing rate of medical errors and costs thanks to EHRs and added government-imposed administrative burdens, and the fact that half of all physicians are so sick of the screwed American health system that they're actively planning to quit. Are you SURE about that??? Really, really sure?
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8151
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:28 am

sophie wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:20 am
moda0306 wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:44 am
The discussion being about Trump is no-good reason to focus only on his detractors if his supporters are equally (if-not more-so) unwilling to change their opinion of Trump in the face of evidence.

In-fact, considering Trump is the head of the most powerful killing machine in the history of the world, the flaws of people who support him are far more worth-discussion than those who either sloppily or accurately hold his feet to the fire.
OK I'll take this one on....

Basically I'm with Cortopassi. I think we all agree that Trump's temper tantrums, factual errors, twitter storms, management style, etc probably qualify him as a pretty lousy human being.

If you're still sticking with the majority of mainstream America, what you're saying is that Trump's personal style is far more relevant to you and more important overall than, say, the 100,000 dead Iraqi civilians, the trail of destruction in the Middle East, the skyrocketing rate of medical errors and costs thanks to EHRs and added government-imposed administrative burdens, and the fact that half of all physicians are so sick of the screwed American health system that they're actively planning to quit. Are you SURE about that??? Really, really sure?
I'm not saying that Trump is more important that big healthcare mistakes, hundreds of thousands of dead civilians, etc, but that's not what Trump supporters are doing. This thread is a debate about how we talk about the president, whether he will be reelected, etc. It's not THE most important discussion by any means, but if we're going to discuss it, the most important aspect isn't the unreasonability of his detractors.

But seriously I'm very intrigued about your EHR assertion. If you haven't already, a separate thread on that would be very interesting. I've followed interested with some of your other assertions on the healthcare system and find myself either agreeing with you or at least thinking you're making very good points.

I definitely think one big-ish problem of the left is they're leaning more on how "bad" Trump is than actual policy proposals and addressing problems. This is why I find the more policy-oriented dems to be the most intriguing even if I don't agree with their proposals, or have reservations. But to put this "problem" in modern perspective, one might want to look at the 8 years of Republican opposition to Obama, and how devoid of any actual policy-principle it was. This is not making an excuse for dems so much as realizing when a problem is uniquely bad with a person/wing of thought rather than just people in general, as it significantly changes how to address the problem.

EDIT:

I think I read your post too quickly. I thought you were retorting my specific point, but you immediately addressed whether I was "still sticking with the majority of mainstream America" in terms of caring more about Trump's personal style over the substance of important policy details. Actually Trump's personal style is more of an asset than a liability, IMO, as it 1) puts how dangerous he could be or the Presidency is on his sleeve rather than shrouded in smooth speeches and language, and 2) shows how hypocritical, uninformed and vindictive a critical mass of "the right" truly is in this country.

It's not his "personal style" I have a problem with (although on just a human level it's pretty embarrassing and baffling), but what it's unfiltered nature informs me of his authoritarian, thin-skinned, un-critical-thinking nature and how that will affect his actual behavior, mostly as head of the largest killing machine in the history of the world. The "personal style" simply betrays deeper flaws that are far-more important. Further, if we want to ignore that for a sec and just get to policy, the man has a very, very loose grasp of the facts, logic, or cause/effect relationships, so a policy debate is almost certainly better-had outside of Trump himself, with the caveat that we should be honest about the fact that he's a bumbling idiot on policy and we should be honest about what the potential consequences of that might be when combined with his authoritarian and thin-skinned instincts.

But if we want to have policy debates, I'm all for it, and I generally do think they're more important than who's in office, as long as I can be guaranteed he won't escalate war with Iran or N Korea in the meantime. I probably should mention that I'm cautiously open to the idea that Trump is actually better on Iran & N Korea than Hillary would have been, but only partially so. Maybe 15% odds, for lack of a better way of communicating it. The Pompeo/Bolton combo is a hard one to out-hawk. The faction of the quasi-anti-war right that tries to insist with a level of certainty that Trump is more of a dove on war than Hillary I think is resting their argument on some pretty thin ice, but like I said I'm not 100% sure of that, and I am sure to tell the very few big-Hil fans in my life that I have my doubts if we're discussing Trump/Hillary.
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3756
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Mountaineer » Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:34 pm

I'll jump in too. I do not think of the "great divide" in our country so much as left vs. right, but of those focused on self vs. those at least somewhat focused on helping others - but offering the help as a "hand up" not a "hand out". I pretty much could care less who is in political power positions as long as they promote in speech and action these criteria:
*freedom of the press,
*freedom to worship,
*freedom to defend ones self (i.e. are not obsessed with gun control when in reality it is the person who missuses a tool, not the tool, that is the problem),
*protects the interests of the United States domestically and abroad,
*follows and enforces the laws of the land and follows proper procedures to change them,
*celebrates and promotes what we the country and we as individuals can become vs. pointing out flaws of "the other",
*allows the local groups to function without interference from higher groups unless absolutely necessary for preservation of the country.

As for Trump, he seems to be doing more of the above criteria than some of his predecessors. Is he perfect? No human is. I do think the executive branch is doing a better job than the legislative or judicial branches.
Rev 22:6-21
User avatar
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1313
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kbg » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:03 pm

I’ve zero idea what Trump is actually like. I do know there is a standard set of caricatures rolled out for Republican presidents. Rich, stupid, uncaring, unsophisticated, embarrassing to our allies, bumbling, in the pocket of corporations...as opposed to witty, urbane, sophisticated, a man of the people, cares about the working man, loved by our Allies (particularly European allies)...etc.

It really doesn’t matter what the person is or is not like, that IS going to be the narrative.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8368
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:38 am

Mountaineer wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:34 pm
...
I pretty much could care less who is in political power positions as long as they promote in speech and action these criteria:
*freedom of the press,
...
...
As for Trump, he seems to be doing more of the above criteria than some of his predecessors. Is he perfect? No human is.
Even so, I can’t believe you put freedom of the press first and then praised him. Is this satire?
flyingpylon
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 425
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:04 am

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:53 am

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:38 am
Mountaineer wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:34 pm
...
I pretty much could care less who is in political power positions as long as they promote in speech and action these criteria:
*freedom of the press,
...
...
As for Trump, he seems to be doing more of the above criteria than some of his predecessors. Is he perfect? No human is.
Even so, I can’t believe you put freedom of the press first and then praised him. Is this satire?
What official actions has Trump taken to deny anyone freedom of the press? Or do you consider complaints and whining to be official actions?
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8151
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:53 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:03 pm
I’ve zero idea what Trump is actually like. I do know there is a standard set of caricatures rolled out for Republican presidents. Rich, stupid, uncaring, unsophisticated, embarrassing to our allies, bumbling, in the pocket of corporations...as opposed to witty, urbane, sophisticated, a man of the people, cares about the working man, loved by our Allies (particularly European allies)...etc.

It really doesn’t matter what the person is or is not like, that IS going to be the narrative.
Zero idea? No idea at all? Really? Just a big goddamn mystery isn't it...

I mean it's possible that he is polished, professional and an expert negotiator behind closed doors, but we definitely have a pretty good sample of what he's "actually like."

But you DO know that there's a narrative "rolled out." Of course there is. There's always some narrative "rolled out." Fox News Rolled out a narrative for Obama. And Bush. So did MSNBC. So did every smaller news outlet. So did people around dinner tables. Every conceivable "narrative" was probably "rolled out." Adults should ignore these narratives, even if partially true, and try to come up with their own conclusions based on much more fact-based analysis.

What are you actually trying to say here? The only thing we know about Trump is what "thuh mediuh" is telling us in line with "their" narrative? Well that's ridiculous. We can know plenty without exposing ourselves to CNN garble.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8368
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:08 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:53 am
dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:38 am
Mountaineer wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:34 pm
...
I pretty much could care less who is in political power positions as long as they promote in speech and action these criteria:
*freedom of the press,
...
...
As for Trump, he seems to be doing more of the above criteria than some of his predecessors. Is he perfect? No human is.
Even so, I can’t believe you put freedom of the press first and then praised him. Is this satire?
What official actions has Trump taken to deny anyone freedom of the press? Or do you consider complaints and whining to be official actions?
It’s something in between official actions and mere whining. Kicking journalists out of press conferences. Disinviting them in the first place. Clearly favoring the one news org that kisses his rump on a daily basis.

He’s not Stalin, but I still had to laugh when I saw that on Mountaineer’s list, let alone at the very top.
Post Reply