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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:08 pm
by jhogue
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:59 am
I agree Warren will be interesting, but I wonder if she shot herself in the foot with the whole Native American thing. You can be sure Trump won't ever let her live that down.
Cort, you may be right, but I think it is possible that the whole Pocahontas story may appeal to a certain niche of her voting public- much as stories about Trump's wives and girlfriends have had an undeniable appeal to some of his base. When you are running for President, there is no substitute for name recognition, and even bad publicity is still publicity.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:46 pm
by dualstow
Tyler wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:24 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:59 am
I agree Warren will be interesting, but I wonder if she shot herself in the foot with the whole Native American thing. You can be sure Trump won't ever let her live that down.
I hear her plan is to win 1/1024 of the vote and declare it proof that she really is the president.
O0 I made a similar joke with some friends the other day, but it was the (fictional) Elizabeth Warren method of dollar cost averaging.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:37 pm
by jhogue
jhogue wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:06 pm
jhogue wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:15 am
Everything will be exactly the same, except different.

In 2020, Dems will nominate Elizabeth Warren who will rail against plutocrats in banks, Wall Street, and offshore tax havens; but for taxes on Roth IRAs over $1 million, tighter capital controls, and Obamacare Plus Free Everything. Ironically, the Russians -- who will be found to have had nothing to do with the outcome of the 2016 election -- will be inspired to seriously hack the 2020 election, thereby assuring the return of the chaotic Donald to office for another 4 years. Only in America, baby!
You heard it here first! Happy New Year!!


The lead editorial in the Wall Street Journal today noted that Elizabeth Warren identified herself as "American Indian" in her 1986 registration for the state of Texas bar.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:04 am
by Kriegsspiel
It's sad (for me) the way she's handled herself. I read The Two Income Trap a couple years ago, and I thought it made sense. The way I read it, people still had agency, and responsibility for their actions. They were doing things that made their own lives harder, shadowy "others" weren't doing it to them. I think she's rolled with the times and taken Demagogue Road.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:38 am
by jhogue
Agreed.
I really enjoyed it when she shredded the CEO of TBTF Wells Fargo at a live-broadcast exchange in front of a Senate Banking Committee meeting for somehow being totally "unaware" that the bank's incentive structure was encouraging its employees to create fictitious accounts unbeknownst to its customers.

He announced his retirement a few days later.

Still, all her talk about a "wealth tax" amounts to yet another legislator's attempt to impose double taxation on us all.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:41 pm
by Ad Orientem
The Mueller report will be when the rubber hits the road. That's when we will see if Trump's iron grip on the support of roughly a third of the population may weaken. If it does, even slightly, one can expect the GOP congress and Senate critters to run for the tall grass. It's worth noting that the electoral map in 2020 does not favor the GOP in the Senate as it did last year. Assuming Trump survives to stand for re-election in 2020, I think his odds will be poor. The Democrats are united in their hatred as never before in my lifetime, and it seems likely Trump will face opposition from the more sane wing of the GOP. History suggests it is extremely unlikely they will succeed in denying him renomination, but he will be weakened. No sitting president in modern political history was reelected if they faced a serious challenge from within their own party. And there is the very real possibility that a center right independent candidate will emerge. I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd say the 2020 election is the Democrat's to lose.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:39 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:41 pm
The Democrats are united in their hatred as never before in my lifetime
Agreed. Even "Bush Derangement Syndrome" was never a thing, and they didn't like him either. The sustained level of frothing rage is bonkers.
it seems likely Trump will face opposition from the more sane wing of the GOP.

there is the very real possibility that a center right independent candidate will emerge.
Who are the sane wing? Do you mean personality-wise, or policy-wise? As far as I can tell he has mostly mainstream or centrist/bipartisan positions:
  • His main thing is curbing illegal immigration and securing the US Mexico border, and that's had bipartisan support for decades.
  • Anti-globalism and trade protections were Democrat positions a few decades ago too (and still are, with literally Socialist Bernie Sanders).
  • Go back more than a few decades and being against bad wars was a Democrat position too.
  • He's said he's for campaign finance reform, and said PACs are a scam, and he's in favor of lobbyist restrictions for people leaving government jobs.
  • He's for freedom of choice (schools).
  • He supports the drug war, which is a mainstream position on both sides.
  • He has said pollution and clean water are problems worth fixing.
  • His support for/use of eminent domain is bipartisan. Same with torture.
  • LGBTQWTF issues I suspect he's pretty mainstream Republican? Not really sure.
  • Support of the PATRIOT Act and mass surveillance is bipartisan.
  • Travel restrictions on people from Muslim countries has been bipartisan.

    Democrats hate...
    ... that he "rejects the scientific consensus on climate change," but none of them do shit about it either so nobody's really on the moral high ground anyways; everybody wants to either maintain or increase their standard of living and run it on renewable energy, which seems ludicrous at this point.

    Republicans don't seem to care about...
    ... 6 weeks guaranteed paid maternity leave. What are we, Europe?
    History suggests it is extremely unlikely they will succeed in denying him renomination, but he will be weakened. No sitting president in modern political history was reelected if they faced a serious challenge from within their own party.
    I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd say the 2020 election is the Democrat's to lose.
    Why would they? Those political people spank it to poll numbers, and he currently has a 44% approval rating according to Gallup. I don't know if that's considered good or bad, but looking at W's, he was below that for the last few years of his presidency. His SOTU speech seemed well received. In the poll I said he'd either get re-elected because he's better than people give him credit for, or he'll be defeated by an insane Leftist (paraphrasing). Could be interesting to see what happens.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:56 am
by WiseOne
Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course). What the Democrats don't like about Trump is pretty much limited to his personality issues, plus a genuine disagreement on whether illegal immigration should be condoned. However, it's not so obvious that Democratic voters are united on that issue. His other policy positions are shared by a majority of voters and even Democratic candidates to a surprising degree - including Elizabeth Warren.

This is how I see it: The main question for the outcome of the 2020 election is whether voters will focus on the personality issues or the policy positions. The personality issues are clearly a big problem, but they're largely short term and probably don't have much impact at the end of the day, whereas policy will affect you (and your bank account) directly and for the long term - thus I would rather focus on that, and I suspect many people feel the same. In 2016 enough voters went for policy to alter the outcome. It remains to be seen whether the media's relentless focus on the personality issues will have a substantial effect. I am 100% certain that they will, just like last time, predict a Democratic victory right up until Election day, but don't take that too seriously.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:41 am
by Mountaineer
WiseOne wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:56 am
Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course). What the Democrats don't like about Trump is pretty much limited to his personality issues, plus a genuine disagreement on whether illegal immigration should be condoned. However, it's not so obvious that Democratic voters are united on that issue. His other policy positions are shared by a majority of voters and even Democratic candidates to a surprising degree - including Elizabeth Warren.

This is how I see it: The main question for the outcome of the 2020 election is whether voters will focus on the personality issues or the policy positions. The personality issues are clearly a big problem, but they're largely short term and probably don't have much impact at the end of the day, whereas policy will affect you (and your bank account) directly and for the long term - thus I would rather focus on that, and I suspect many people feel the same. In 2016 enough voters went for policy to alter the outcome. It remains to be seen whether the media's relentless focus on the personality issues will have a substantial effect. I am 100% certain that they will, just like last time, predict a Democratic victory right up until Election day, but don't take that too seriously.
Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:17 pm
by Kriegsspiel
WiseOne wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:56 am
Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course).
That would be fine, I looked them all up but I went with the bipartisan thing kinda haphazardly. I took out my shout out to moda in the eminent domain bullet :P

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:18 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Mountaineer wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:41 am
Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/
When the media picks up the "Airplane Viewership Rankings" as the Next Big Indicator I can say YO I WAS THERE WHEN IT STARTED.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:46 pm
by Mountaineer
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:18 pm
Mountaineer wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:41 am
Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/
When the media picks up the "Airplane Viewership Rankings" as the Next Big Indicator I can say YO I WAS THERE WHEN IT STARTED.
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:03 am
by jhogue
Great news for Trump: Ms. Minnesota Nice herself —Senator Amy Klobuchar-- has declared for President. Her entry into the race ensures that Democrats will have a choice in the Iowa caucus between those who primarily hate Donald Trump’s persona and those who primarily hate “the rich.”

Predictably, Trump immediately attacked her for attacking global warming in the middle of a Minnesota snowstorm. Just as predictably, she counter-punched on facebook by arguing that her hair held up better under the weather than his would.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:16 am
by dualstow
O0 I love it O0

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:51 am
by jhogue
More great news for Trump:

Bernie Sanders declared for President. Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show (who does a wicked Trump imitation, by the way) made fun of Bernie three nights running, calling him an Old Man.

Bernie's Santa Claus Socialism and his entry into the race form an important milestone in the Democrats' road to ruin. He certainly hates "the rich" on principle, but he may not personally hate Trump enough to satisfy the party's TDS wing.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:40 am
by jacksonM
jhogue wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:51 am
More great news for Trump:

Bernie Sanders declared for President. Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show (who does a wicked Trump imitation, by the way) made fun of Bernie three nights running, calling him an Old Man.

Bernie's Santa Claus Socialism and his entry into the race form an important milestone in the Democrats' road to ruin. He certainly hates "the rich" on principle, but he may not personally hate Trump enough to satisfy the party's TDS wing.
Now you have leading candidates coming out for reparations for slavery (Harris and Booker I believe and in the case of Pocahontas she will also include native Americans).

Socialism, the Green New Deal, reparations for slavery - do these bozos really think a majority of the American people are going to vote for this stuff? If they put one of them at the top of the ticket I suspect Pat Buchanan will be right in his prediction that Trump will win by a landslide.

Personally, I don't feel particularly motivated to go to the polls and vote for Trump on his own merits at this time. He talks non-interventionism abroad and then surrounds himself with some of the worse neocons imaginable. He talks about limiting all immigration, both legal and illegal to get elected and then he not only doesn't build the wall but he says in his POTUS speech that he wants to open the floodgates for more legal immigration.

Unfortunately, if one of the Dem nutjobs gets nominated I will be forced to hold my nose and go vote for him as the lesser of two evils.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:56 pm
by dualstow
Remember 2016 when Bernie was fringe? Now he’s just another Democratic candidate in the mix. O0

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:24 am
by Xan
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:44 am
Are there any Dems who aren't nutjobs who could win the nomination? I'm not holding my breath to see if there is one.
He isn't technically aiming for "the nomination", but Schultz could potentially make some noise.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:37 am
by dualstow
Aside from her unfairly going after Al Franken, Kirsten Gillibrand seems fairly levelheaded. Or, does she not count as someone who could win?

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:22 pm
by jacksonM
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:44 am
jacksonM wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:40 am
jhogue wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:51 am
More great news for Trump:

Bernie Sanders declared for President. Jimmy Fallon on the Tonight Show (who does a wicked Trump imitation, by the way) made fun of Bernie three nights running, calling him an Old Man.

Bernie's Santa Claus Socialism and his entry into the race form an important milestone in the Democrats' road to ruin. He certainly hates "the rich" on principle, but he may not personally hate Trump enough to satisfy the party's TDS wing.
Now you have leading candidates coming out for reparations for slavery (Harris and Booker I believe and in the case of Pocahontas she will also include native Americans).

Socialism, the Green New Deal, reparations for slavery - do these bozos really think a majority of the American people are going to vote for this stuff? If they put one of them at the top of the ticket I suspect Pat Buchanan will be right in his prediction that Trump will win by a landslide.

Personally, I don't feel particularly motivated to go to the polls and vote for Trump on his own merits at this time. He talks non-interventionism abroad and then surrounds himself with some of the worse neocons imaginable. He talks about limiting all immigration, both legal and illegal to get elected and then he not only doesn't build the wall but he says in his POTUS speech that he wants to open the floodgates for more legal immigration.

Unfortunately, if one of the Dem nutjobs gets nominated I will be forced to hold my nose and go vote for him as the lesser of two evils.
Are there any Dems who aren't nutjobs who could win the nomination? I'm not holding my breath to see if there is one.

As to the original question about whether Trump will be re-elected, here's my favorite political analyst on that topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDY-g7aUzxk
I'm sure there a lot of things I will disagree with her on if I look close enough but I like Tulsi Gabbard for her views on foreign policy. I'm not sure if there is another non-interventionist among all the candidates. Though I had my doubts, Trump had me convinced that he leaned that way but I'm starting to conclude that he says one thing, does another, and hopes nobody notices or cares that much.

That guy on youtube reflects my own views pretty well.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:00 pm
by jacksonM
Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:19 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:22 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:44 am


Are there any Dems who aren't nutjobs who could win the nomination? I'm not holding my breath to see if there is one.

As to the original question about whether Trump will be re-elected, here's my favorite political analyst on that topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDY-g7aUzxk
I'm sure there a lot of things I will disagree with her on if I look close enough but I like Tulsi Gabbard for her views on foreign policy. I'm not sure if there is another non-interventionist among all the candidates. Though I had my doubts, Trump had me convinced that he leaned that way but I'm starting to conclude that he says one thing, does another, and hopes nobody notices or cares that much.

That guy on youtube reflects my own views pretty well.
Styxhexenhammer666 is a pretty big Trump fan at this point, although he won't hesitate to call him out on things he disagrees with (e.g., the "bump stock" ban).

As for whether he is a non-interventionist, he looks that way to me. What new wars has he started? And he is trying to extricate us from some existing wars after pretty much accomplishing the original goal (decimate ISIS) of one of them.
No, he hasn't started any new wars and is obviously trying to work for peace with North Korea as we speak. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until I see how far he is willing to go with "all options are on the table" in Venezuela and also in Iran if either of those countries go far enough to call his bluff. Maybe he is just playing good cop/bad cop with the neocons he has surrounded himself with as some have suggested. I hope that is true.

As for Syria. He said we were going to withdraw completely but to the delight of Lindsey Graham and others he decided to leave a "peacekeeping force" with numbers of 200-400 soldiers depending on which article you read. Reminds me of Reagan's peacekeeping force in Beirut. When they were attacked and many were killed Reagan wisely decided it was a mistake to leave them there and brought them home. Hopefully, Trump won't be put to the same test but I would rather he had done what he said and exited Syria completely.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:30 pm
by Kriegsspiel
I don't think Tulsi Gabbard's foreign policies vary much from Trump's. And other than that she is very similar to Bernie Sanders. So I won't be voting for her, but I could see a lot of Democrats liking her.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:51 pm
by jhogue
This important update (and milestone) in Trump's re-election campaign:

Trump's fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg announces he will not run for President, saying:

“we cannot allow the primary process to drag the party to an extreme that would diminish our chances in the general election and translate into ‘Four More Years.’”

Bloomberg, a congenital Democrat who ran for mayor of New York City as first a Republican and then an independent, does not hail from the Looney Tunes wing of his party.


Source:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michael- ... 3e410a00ea

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:22 pm
by dualstow
He’s simply too old. Maybe twelve, 24 years ago...

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:59 pm
by Xan
Libertarian666 wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:55 pm
jhogue wrote:
Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:51 pm
This important update (and milestone) in Trump's re-election campaign:

Trump's fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg announces he will not run for President, saying:

“we cannot allow the primary process to drag the party to an extreme that would diminish our chances in the general election and translate into ‘Four More Years.’”

Bloomberg, a congenital Democrat who ran for mayor of New York City as first a Republican and then an independent, does not hail from the Looney Tunes wing of his party.


Source:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michael- ... 3e410a00ea
Unfortunately for the Ds, and fortunately for Trump, it is looking more and more likely that the Ds will not field anyone who could win.

If they field a left-wing lunatic like Sanders, moderate Democrats will desert.
If they field a "moderate" like Biden, the left-wing lunatics will desert.
An independent campaign from Schultz could save them, presuming he then proceeds to act like (become? stay?) a "moderate" Democrat.