Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
19
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
2
4%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
5
10%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
11
21%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
13%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
3
6%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
6%
Other, please elaborate.
2
4%
 
Total votes: 52
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:21 pm

pugchief wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:00 pm
I can't speak for others here, but I have no problem with Conservatives or Liberals, my qualm is with Leftists which are the ever growing wing of the Democratic Party. And you sure can do something about that: vote the nutjobs out.

I have always been a centrist. Socially liberal and fiscally conservative. But the conservatives are no longer fiscally conservative and the social fabric here has moved so far left, there is nowhere to hide. I tend to lean a little more to the right these days only because they seem to be a bit less crazy.
I hope you don't take offense, but I think you have an incorrect view of yourself. Sure we've moved left on some issues, but right now taxes on businesses, corporations and capital gains are INSANELY low historically for the last century, and unions are INSANELY weak, as are median real wages. We've been able to export "capital interest farms" to "COMMUNIST" countries like China for plutocrats to harvest at minimal tax/tariff rates. Ideas like Universal Healthcare were pushed (and popular) as early as the mid-1940's, yet I hear you decry any involvement by the government in healthcare.

What issue would you consider yourself most liberal on? And would you flesh that out a bit?

You seem to have "a problem" with anything that isn't at least "center-right." I mean there was NOBODY here (on the PP forum) defending Hillary Clinton (a center-left corporatist dem), but I have a sneaking suspicion if I'd pushed a pro-Hillary stance you would have had some lively debate directed at me... am I incorrect in that assumption? Were you as supportive of Hillary as say a Marco Rubio candidacy? Who was your ideal candidate on the Republican primary stage?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:34 pm

moda0306 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:21 pm
pugchief wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:00 pm
I can't speak for others here, but I have no problem with Conservatives or Liberals, my qualm is with Leftists which are the ever growing wing of the Democratic Party. And you sure can do something about that: vote the nutjobs out.

I have always been a centrist. Socially liberal and fiscally conservative. But the conservatives are no longer fiscally conservative and the social fabric here has moved so far left, there is nowhere to hide. I tend to lean a little more to the right these days only because they seem to be a bit less crazy.
I hope you don't take offense, but I think you have an incorrect view of yourself. Sure we've moved left on some issues, but right now taxes on businesses, corporations and capital gains are INSANELY low historically for the last century, and unions are INSANELY weak, as are median real wages. We've been able to export "capital interest farms" to "COMMUNIST" countries like China for plutocrats to harvest at minimal tax/tariff rates. Ideas like Universal Healthcare were pushed (and popular) as early as the mid-1940's, yet I hear you decry any involvement by the government in healthcare.

What issue would you consider yourself most liberal on? And would you flesh that out a bit?

You seem to have "a problem" with anything that isn't at least "center-right." I mean there was NOBODY here (on the PP forum) defending Hillary Clinton (a center-left corporatist dem), but I have a sneaking suspicion if I'd pushed a pro-Hillary stance you would have had some lively debate directed at me... am I incorrect in that assumption? Were you as supportive of Hillary as say a Marco Rubio candidacy? Who was your ideal candidate on the Republican primary stage?
Hahaha, no offense taken. The women in my life always tell me I'm wrong about everything so why shouldn't you ? O0

Taxes on business: Compared to what? We had one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world until recently, plus stockholders get taxed on the dividends and capital gains, too.

Unions: Don't get me started. Since I am not a socialist, I don't see why unionized workers, particularly ones that work for the taxpayers, should have better benefits than everyone else and wages that are out of line with their training and education. We can debate this forever, but you will never change my view on this.

The government has proven time and again that anything it gets involved with ends up being an inefficient, expensive clusterf*ck. What makes you think health care would be any different? They've already done irreparable damage without even having full control.

I am not as right wing as you think, but since you are pretty far to the left, I probably seem that way to you. I am pro-choice, pro-separation of church and state, and pro-LGBTQ right up until the pronoun nonsense and feminization of men / masculinization of women insanity.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:58 pm

moda0306 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:11 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:59 am
...

Moda, just to satisfy my curiosity: are there any world leaders whom you think did a good job overall? Separately, any U.S. Presidents?
If we are defining a "good job" as (for example) ...
<snip>
Thank you very much.

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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:35 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:58 pm

Moda, just to satisfy my curiosity: are there any world leaders whom you think did a good job overall? Separately, any U.S. Presidents?

Image

Image
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:36 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:35 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:58 pm

Moda, just to satisfy my curiosity: are there any world leaders whom you think did a good job overall? Separately, any U.S. Presidents?

Image

Image
Ad,

Who's that guy on top?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Xan » Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:53 pm

Looks like Tsar Alexander II.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:38 pm

pugchief wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:34 pm
moda0306 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:21 pm
pugchief wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:00 pm
I can't speak for others here, but I have no problem with Conservatives or Liberals, my qualm is with Leftists which are the ever growing wing of the Democratic Party. And you sure can do something about that: vote the nutjobs out.

I have always been a centrist. Socially liberal and fiscally conservative. But the conservatives are no longer fiscally conservative and the social fabric here has moved so far left, there is nowhere to hide. I tend to lean a little more to the right these days only because they seem to be a bit less crazy.
I hope you don't take offense, but I think you have an incorrect view of yourself. Sure we've moved left on some issues, but right now taxes on businesses, corporations and capital gains are INSANELY low historically for the last century, and unions are INSANELY weak, as are median real wages. We've been able to export "capital interest farms" to "COMMUNIST" countries like China for plutocrats to harvest at minimal tax/tariff rates. Ideas like Universal Healthcare were pushed (and popular) as early as the mid-1940's, yet I hear you decry any involvement by the government in healthcare.

What issue would you consider yourself most liberal on? And would you flesh that out a bit?

You seem to have "a problem" with anything that isn't at least "center-right." I mean there was NOBODY here (on the PP forum) defending Hillary Clinton (a center-left corporatist dem), but I have a sneaking suspicion if I'd pushed a pro-Hillary stance you would have had some lively debate directed at me... am I incorrect in that assumption? Were you as supportive of Hillary as say a Marco Rubio candidacy? Who was your ideal candidate on the Republican primary stage?
Hahaha, no offense taken. The women in my life always tell me I'm wrong about everything so why shouldn't you ? O0

Taxes on business: Compared to what? We had one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world until recently, plus stockholders get taxed on the dividends and capital gains, too.

Unions: Don't get me started. Since I am not a socialist, I don't see why unionized workers, particularly ones that work for the taxpayers, should have better benefits than everyone else and wages that are out of line with their training and education. We can debate this forever, but you will never change my view on this.

The government has proven time and again that anything it gets involved with ends up being an inefficient, expensive clusterf*ck. What makes you think health care would be any different? They've already done irreparable damage without even having full control.

I am not as right wing as you think, but since you are pretty far to the left, I probably seem that way to you. I am pro-choice, pro-separation of church and state, and pro-LGBTQ right up until the pronoun nonsense and feminization of men / masculinization of women insanity.
pug,

If you have that sort of ill-will towards unions, you're very economically conservative, as that would be a conservative opinion to take in 1879, much less 2019.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:28 pm

Xan wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:53 pm
Looks like Tsar Alexander II.
Yep. With a stroke of the imperial pen he did what it took our democracy four years of bloody fratricidal war to accomplish.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:11 pm

moda0306 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:15 am
"Support" can be a misleading term. It's not "moral support." It's not selling weapons or allowing the sale of weapons. It's literal military support...

"The Americans are providing targeting intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes involved in bombing rebel positions."
I saw that. I would be willing to bet money that the US military guys in the targeting cell are not sitting there telling the Saudis "See this, that's a wedding ceremony with a bunch of happy people. We want you guys to go bomb that. When you're done, there is a large force of children playing soccer over here..." But whatever you think, when you're dropping bombs from aircraft, and when the enemy is in populated areas, there will be collateral. But as I've said before, I don't like the idea of drone strikes based on intelligence sources, I suspect they're the cause of a lot of civilian casualties. I think there should be a person on the ground calling it in.
https://merip.org/2018/02/trumps-drone-surge/
In one respect, President Trump has no doubt kept his word. Trump promised during the campaign to “bomb the shit” out of ISIS and it appears to be one of the few promises he has kept. Trump inherited from Obama an escalating war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, but both conventional bombing and drone strikes have significantly increased under Trump as a result of his new ISIS battle plan, whose strategy Defense Secretary James Mattis defines as “annihilation tactics.” According to Newsweek, the United States under Trump has dropped a record number of bombs on the Middle East, roughly 10 percent more than under his predecessors. Trump also loosened rules of engagement that protect civilians and, unsurprisingly, civilian casualties from the US-led war against ISIS will, at this pace, double under Trump.
Seems pretty successful, I think the last ISIS stronghold recently surrendered. Was it worth it? I dunno.

I checked out the reference for the claim that Trump loosened the ROE that protect civilians. It may be the case (it was Daily Beast implying they were quoting Trump directly) that he requested “changes to any United States rules of engagement and other United States policy restrictions that exceed the requirements of international law regarding the use of force against ISIS.”

This was probably because ISIS was digging in around and travelling with civilian human-shields so that we would kill civilians when dropping ordinance. This has become a common tactic over the last several decades (and is one of the reasons, along with increased use of aerial bombing, that 4GW will involve more civilian deaths than one would expect given our level of "technological sophistication"). This is what COL Murray was referring to later in the article, and the whole thing makes this point. Even if their guys all get killed, they can win a psyop battle by emphasizing how many civilians were killed too.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-ram ... hadow-wars
moda0306 wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:26 am
Did you also notice that your assertion that Saudi's were simply using American-manufactured bombs was incorrect?
No. But I wasn't asserting that, I was referring to the Horton article where HE was asserting that because a US bomb was dropped on a school bus, the US was guilty of war crimes. At least that's what I remember it saying, I can't find it on his site anymore.
As far as the jurisdictional and legalese aspects of war-crime prosecution, I've got to dig into my sources for that. I've heard folks like Chomsky, Greenwald, Horton and a few others go into the actual various layers of legal precedent and procedural machinations of war crime prosecution, but they're not at my fingertips and it's been a while. It's also a bit difficult to suss out actual accusations of war crimes vs digging into the legal machinations of how they would/could/should be prosecuted.
You keep saying various Presidents are or have been committing war crimes by virtue of their policies instead of by doing specific things. So by extension, the military is committing war crimes when it does normal military things to execute the policies. There are some things everyone would agree are heinous: My Lai, Mahmudiya, Serbian soldiers killing civilians with sledgehammers. But if a soldier manning a howitzer kills civilians when he fires on coordinates he gets on a radio, or a pilot providing close air support, it's not a war crime, that's what happens in modern warfare. But it's hard to figure out what aspect from them you think are war crimes. For instance, I went through the NPR article about AFRICOM and clicked through a couple links from it and I still can't tell what you are referring to from them. Might be an Overton Window issue.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:24 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:11 pm

This was probably because ISIS was digging in around and travelling with civilian human-shields so that we would kill civilians when dropping ordinance. This has become a common tactic over the last several decades (and is one of the reasons, along with increased use of aerial bombing, that 4GW will involve more civilian deaths than one would expect given our level of "technological sophistication"). This is what COL Murray was referring to later in the article, and the whole thing makes this point. Even if their guys all get killed, they can win a psyop battle by emphasizing how many civilians were killed too.
Kriegs, you seem to be pretty well informed on this stuff, so can you clarify: Is that more common in general or only with Islamists? If the latter, do you think Israel is getting a bad rap for the way they are trying to deal with this?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:55 pm

pugchief wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:24 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:11 pm

This was probably because ISIS was digging in around and travelling with civilian human-shields so that we would kill civilians when dropping ordinance. This has become a common tactic over the last several decades (and is one of the reasons, along with increased use of aerial bombing, that 4GW will involve more civilian deaths than one would expect given our level of "technological sophistication"). This is what COL Murray was referring to later in the article, and the whole thing makes this point. Even if their guys all get killed, they can win a psyop battle by emphasizing how many civilians were killed too.
Kriegs, you seem to be pretty well informed on this stuff, so can you clarify: Is that more common in general or only with Islamists? If the latter, do you think Israel is getting a bad rap for the way they are trying to deal with this?
Well, I'm no expert. But speculating, it's going to be more common, one of the downsides of urbanization and weapons' technological advancement.

If you park your unit out in the open somewhere, they're all going to be dead or wounded in short order (1). If you put them in a city (combined with psyop and propaganda), your enemy either won't bomb you because they don't want to destroy their own citizens/economy (it's like you're calling their bluff on how tenacious/legit they are), or they do, and take the psyop hit. Russia executed a pretty much flawless operation when they inserted their Little Green Men into Crimea. Do you remember when that happened? The news stories that were coming out were all over the place, nobody knew what the fuck was going on. The US in Afghanistan and Iraq sets up combat outposts (COPs) in villages and even in buildings on a block with civilian buildings, because that's where the people are. But the hope isn't that enemy fire will miss and hit civilians, because we can't claim that as a PR victory, whereas an ISIS squad who are firing from a building with kids in it could. So what I'm trying to say is that it doesn't matter if you have "good" or "bad" intentions, you're going to be around citizens more the way wars are fought now.

Israelis don't have the inclination to self-flagellate themselves if they kill civilians, because they all get that they're in a existential fight. The Palestinians have been engaged with the Israelis for generations, so they know what the deal is. But they still keep at it knowing they're gonna get smoked (2). So when they try to get the Israelis to kill civilians, they're targeting the US and Europeans, not the Israeli populace. That's only at a bird's eye view, since I'm sure there have been times when the Israelis deserve to get some flack. Anyways, that's what I think.

1. https://zik.ua/en/news/2014/07/11/19_uk ... nky_505245
2. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/14/worl ... bassy.html
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by pugchief » Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:59 pm

Interesting. Thanks for the analysis.
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