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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:06 pm
by Maddy
ochotona wrote:People wanted a Firebrand Change Candidate in 2016, that's what they voted for when they voted for Trump, but he was always just a Firebrand Clown. Now, if a real Firebrand Change Candidate emerges for 2020... watch out. This will likely be no one we have seen before. Someone with Trump's fire, not a house fire, a useful fire. Someone with skills and someone who can dominate the playground in a strong but good way and get things done.
It's a very likely possibility. The "takeaway" from the outcome of the 2016 election is that a non-establishment candidate CAN win. I'll wager that candidate won't be Trump simply because it doesn't have to be. And now that the base is aware of what enormous power it yields even without the endorsement of either party, I'd expect that the non-establishment candidate in 2020 will be flying it alone.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:22 am
by ochotona
TennPaGa wrote:The man has the steely determination one associates with bean curd. You cannot trust anything the man says.[/size][/font]
;D

To bring it back to investing, that's why I am really glad to be 100% out of US Stocks, per Antonacci GEM Dual Momentum, because I will be little less in the cross-hairs when whatever comes next comes next and then settles in for a bite. I'm thinking Debt Ceiling / Government Shutdown.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:14 am
by barrett
dualstow wrote:
Desert wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:Trump won't be on the ballot in November 2020.
What about Pence?
He's still on the fence.
I just wanted you to know that someone still appreciates your wit, dualstow!

I would not could not with a Pence.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:15 am
by dualstow
O0

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:47 pm
by Mountaineer
Interesting poll. So far 53% of us think Trump will be re-elected.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:40 pm
by I Shrugged
Kriegsspiel wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:Trump won't be on the ballot in November 2020.
Now THAT is an assassination threat if I've ever heard one so bureaucratically stated.
I figure it this way:
10% chance he doesn't serve 4 years
20% chance he decides not to run again
40% chance he loses in the primaries

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:06 pm
by jhogue
jhogue wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:15 am
Everything will be exactly the same, except different.

In 2020, Dems will nominate Elizabeth Warren who will rail against plutocrats in banks, Wall Street, and offshore tax havens; but for taxes on Roth IRAs over $1 million, tighter capital controls, and Obamacare Plus Free Everything. Ironically, the Russians -- who will be found to have had nothing to do with the outcome of the 2016 election -- will be inspired to seriously hack the 2020 election, thereby assuring the return of the chaotic Donald to office for another 4 years. Only in America, baby!
You heard it here first! Happy New Year!!

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:55 am
by dualstow
ha! O0
Happy New Year Mr (Or Ms) Hogue!

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:34 am
by WiseOne
If Elizabeth Warren ends up as the Democratic candidate, we are in for one wild ride. She's part Bernie Sanders, part Trump, and part crazy. Despite how vocal she's been against Trump, some of her positions align with his (e.g. on trade & globalization) and she's almost as much of a loose cannon. Some things she says are real zingers, like this little gem:
She observed that "the current generation of corporate winners" would have to pay their fair share in order for "the next generation of prosperous American companies" to be ushered in along with investments in "broad-based economic growth" to be feasible.
This is going to be interesting. Two Trump-like candidates, one extreme left and beloved of the press, and one right-center and reviled by the press. About the only thing I can predict is that the polls will once again be dead wrong.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:59 am
by Cortopassi
I agree Warren will be interesting, but I wonder if she shot herself in the foot with the whole Native American thing. You can be sure Trump won't ever let her live that down.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 10:30 am
by I Shrugged
I’m gonna get me a beer.
-Elizabeth Warren

LOL!!!!!

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:24 am
by Tyler
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:59 am
I agree Warren will be interesting, but I wonder if she shot herself in the foot with the whole Native American thing. You can be sure Trump won't ever let her live that down.
I hear her plan is to win 1/1024 of the vote and declare it proof that she really is the president.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:08 pm
by jhogue
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:59 am
I agree Warren will be interesting, but I wonder if she shot herself in the foot with the whole Native American thing. You can be sure Trump won't ever let her live that down.
Cort, you may be right, but I think it is possible that the whole Pocahontas story may appeal to a certain niche of her voting public- much as stories about Trump's wives and girlfriends have had an undeniable appeal to some of his base. When you are running for President, there is no substitute for name recognition, and even bad publicity is still publicity.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:46 pm
by dualstow
Tyler wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:24 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:59 am
I agree Warren will be interesting, but I wonder if she shot herself in the foot with the whole Native American thing. You can be sure Trump won't ever let her live that down.
I hear her plan is to win 1/1024 of the vote and declare it proof that she really is the president.
O0 I made a similar joke with some friends the other day, but it was the (fictional) Elizabeth Warren method of dollar cost averaging.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:37 pm
by jhogue
jhogue wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:06 pm
jhogue wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:15 am
Everything will be exactly the same, except different.

In 2020, Dems will nominate Elizabeth Warren who will rail against plutocrats in banks, Wall Street, and offshore tax havens; but for taxes on Roth IRAs over $1 million, tighter capital controls, and Obamacare Plus Free Everything. Ironically, the Russians -- who will be found to have had nothing to do with the outcome of the 2016 election -- will be inspired to seriously hack the 2020 election, thereby assuring the return of the chaotic Donald to office for another 4 years. Only in America, baby!
You heard it here first! Happy New Year!!


The lead editorial in the Wall Street Journal today noted that Elizabeth Warren identified herself as "American Indian" in her 1986 registration for the state of Texas bar.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:04 am
by Kriegsspiel
It's sad (for me) the way she's handled herself. I read The Two Income Trap a couple years ago, and I thought it made sense. The way I read it, people still had agency, and responsibility for their actions. They were doing things that made their own lives harder, shadowy "others" weren't doing it to them. I think she's rolled with the times and taken Demagogue Road.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:38 am
by jhogue
Agreed.
I really enjoyed it when she shredded the CEO of TBTF Wells Fargo at a live-broadcast exchange in front of a Senate Banking Committee meeting for somehow being totally "unaware" that the bank's incentive structure was encouraging its employees to create fictitious accounts unbeknownst to its customers.

He announced his retirement a few days later.

Still, all her talk about a "wealth tax" amounts to yet another legislator's attempt to impose double taxation on us all.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:41 pm
by Ad Orientem
The Mueller report will be when the rubber hits the road. That's when we will see if Trump's iron grip on the support of roughly a third of the population may weaken. If it does, even slightly, one can expect the GOP congress and Senate critters to run for the tall grass. It's worth noting that the electoral map in 2020 does not favor the GOP in the Senate as it did last year. Assuming Trump survives to stand for re-election in 2020, I think his odds will be poor. The Democrats are united in their hatred as never before in my lifetime, and it seems likely Trump will face opposition from the more sane wing of the GOP. History suggests it is extremely unlikely they will succeed in denying him renomination, but he will be weakened. No sitting president in modern political history was reelected if they faced a serious challenge from within their own party. And there is the very real possibility that a center right independent candidate will emerge. I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd say the 2020 election is the Democrat's to lose.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:39 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:41 pm
The Democrats are united in their hatred as never before in my lifetime
Agreed. Even "Bush Derangement Syndrome" was never a thing, and they didn't like him either. The sustained level of frothing rage is bonkers.
it seems likely Trump will face opposition from the more sane wing of the GOP.

there is the very real possibility that a center right independent candidate will emerge.
Who are the sane wing? Do you mean personality-wise, or policy-wise? As far as I can tell he has mostly mainstream or centrist/bipartisan positions:
  • His main thing is curbing illegal immigration and securing the US Mexico border, and that's had bipartisan support for decades.
  • Anti-globalism and trade protections were Democrat positions a few decades ago too (and still are, with literally Socialist Bernie Sanders).
  • Go back more than a few decades and being against bad wars was a Democrat position too.
  • He's said he's for campaign finance reform, and said PACs are a scam, and he's in favor of lobbyist restrictions for people leaving government jobs.
  • He's for freedom of choice (schools).
  • He supports the drug war, which is a mainstream position on both sides.
  • He has said pollution and clean water are problems worth fixing.
  • His support for/use of eminent domain is bipartisan. Same with torture.
  • LGBTQWTF issues I suspect he's pretty mainstream Republican? Not really sure.
  • Support of the PATRIOT Act and mass surveillance is bipartisan.
  • Travel restrictions on people from Muslim countries has been bipartisan.

    Democrats hate...
    ... that he "rejects the scientific consensus on climate change," but none of them do shit about it either so nobody's really on the moral high ground anyways; everybody wants to either maintain or increase their standard of living and run it on renewable energy, which seems ludicrous at this point.

    Republicans don't seem to care about...
    ... 6 weeks guaranteed paid maternity leave. What are we, Europe?
    History suggests it is extremely unlikely they will succeed in denying him renomination, but he will be weakened. No sitting president in modern political history was reelected if they faced a serious challenge from within their own party.
    I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd say the 2020 election is the Democrat's to lose.
    Why would they? Those political people spank it to poll numbers, and he currently has a 44% approval rating according to Gallup. I don't know if that's considered good or bad, but looking at W's, he was below that for the last few years of his presidency. His SOTU speech seemed well received. In the poll I said he'd either get re-elected because he's better than people give him credit for, or he'll be defeated by an insane Leftist (paraphrasing). Could be interesting to see what happens.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:56 am
by WiseOne
Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course). What the Democrats don't like about Trump is pretty much limited to his personality issues, plus a genuine disagreement on whether illegal immigration should be condoned. However, it's not so obvious that Democratic voters are united on that issue. His other policy positions are shared by a majority of voters and even Democratic candidates to a surprising degree - including Elizabeth Warren.

This is how I see it: The main question for the outcome of the 2020 election is whether voters will focus on the personality issues or the policy positions. The personality issues are clearly a big problem, but they're largely short term and probably don't have much impact at the end of the day, whereas policy will affect you (and your bank account) directly and for the long term - thus I would rather focus on that, and I suspect many people feel the same. In 2016 enough voters went for policy to alter the outcome. It remains to be seen whether the media's relentless focus on the personality issues will have a substantial effect. I am 100% certain that they will, just like last time, predict a Democratic victory right up until Election day, but don't take that too seriously.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:41 am
by Mountaineer
WiseOne wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:56 am
Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course). What the Democrats don't like about Trump is pretty much limited to his personality issues, plus a genuine disagreement on whether illegal immigration should be condoned. However, it's not so obvious that Democratic voters are united on that issue. His other policy positions are shared by a majority of voters and even Democratic candidates to a surprising degree - including Elizabeth Warren.

This is how I see it: The main question for the outcome of the 2020 election is whether voters will focus on the personality issues or the policy positions. The personality issues are clearly a big problem, but they're largely short term and probably don't have much impact at the end of the day, whereas policy will affect you (and your bank account) directly and for the long term - thus I would rather focus on that, and I suspect many people feel the same. In 2016 enough voters went for policy to alter the outcome. It remains to be seen whether the media's relentless focus on the personality issues will have a substantial effect. I am 100% certain that they will, just like last time, predict a Democratic victory right up until Election day, but don't take that too seriously.
Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:17 pm
by Kriegsspiel
WiseOne wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:56 am
Right, Kriegspiel (though I'm sure moda will take that list of yours apart in due course).
That would be fine, I looked them all up but I went with the bipartisan thing kinda haphazardly. I took out my shout out to moda in the eminent domain bullet :P

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:18 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Mountaineer wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:41 am
Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/
When the media picks up the "Airplane Viewership Rankings" as the Next Big Indicator I can say YO I WAS THERE WHEN IT STARTED.

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:46 pm
by Mountaineer
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:18 pm
Mountaineer wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 11:41 am
Perhaps voters will go for policy. But, and a big but, is if voters largely ignore substance as evidenced by the most popular TV shows and movies all bets are off. Entertainment may win the day, even if the entertainment is a sham with promises of free everything for everyone.
https://crankyflier.com/2019/01/08/the- ... n-the-air/
When the media picks up the "Airplane Viewership Rankings" as the Next Big Indicator I can say YO I WAS THERE WHEN IT STARTED.
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Posted: Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:03 am
by jhogue
Great news for Trump: Ms. Minnesota Nice herself —Senator Amy Klobuchar-- has declared for President. Her entry into the race ensures that Democrats will have a choice in the Iowa caucus between those who primarily hate Donald Trump’s persona and those who primarily hate “the rich.”

Predictably, Trump immediately attacked her for attacking global warming in the middle of a Minnesota snowstorm. Just as predictably, she counter-punched on facebook by arguing that her hair held up better under the weather than his would.