Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
22
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
5
8%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
14
24%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
12%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
3
5%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 59
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:40 am

Desert wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:Trump won't be on the ballot in November 2020.
What about Pence?
He's still on the fence.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by sophie » Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:44 am

Pointedstick wrote:The stock market only affects the small minority of people like us. The unemployment rate is indeed getting better, but masks low labor force participation rate (especially for males), near-zero wage growth, an unfavorable distribution of full-time jobs vs part-time jobs, and most of the new jobs being in low-paying dead-end fields like retail and hospitality. The skyrocketing costs of college, healthcare, and housing in nice places play into this too, since they are far outstripping many people's ability to pay for them.

It's not "the economy" but rather how people feel about their prospects. Elites like us feel good and have for a long time. Many others don't feel optimistic about the future and haven't for some time.
+1. This is exactly what befuddled the 2016 election: a large slice of the voting population let the rest of us know that they didn't like being left out of the economic party. What's changed since then? Nothing that I can see. When the economy is reported as doing well, that means corporate profits are up. Great for stock holdings, but it's only a small part of the overall picture.

I was hoping that the Democrats & Republicans would get the message, but they haven't and it seems that they never will. No idea what the voting bloc that put Trump into office will do in 2020 though, and that will probably decide the election. They might latch onto another populist candidate, or stick with Trump if the Republicans let him keep the nomination, or just not even bother to turn up. If the latter, the Democrats will win. They're correct about the changing demographics being in their favor, and by 2020 that advantage will only increase.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by l82start » Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:12 am

another possibility is that trump gets stymied on most of his promises and the congress gets blamed (likely rightfully so) and the populist movement that elected trump goes after them (while keeping trump).. i just read this morning that Congress's approval rating has dropped to 10% among voters and is down from 18% among republicans to 14%... the uniparty establishment was soundly rejected in 2016 there is nothing going on that i can see that would bring them back into favor.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:33 am

l82start wrote:another possibility is that trump gets stymied on most of his promises and the congress gets blamed (likely rightfully so) and the populist movement that elected trump goes after them (while keeping trump).. i just read this morning that Congress's approval rating has dropped to 10% among voters and is down from 18% among republicans to 14%... the uniparty establishment was soundly rejected in 2016 there is nothing going on that i can see that would bring them back into favor.
I agree with the theme of this, but I don't think Trump is a shoe-in for the nomination, or if he's nominated he will win the Presidency again. It all depends who he has to go up against in the GOP primaries and the General Election.

People wanted a Firebrand Change Candidate in 2016, that's what they voted for when they voted for Trump, but he was always just a Firebrand Clown. Now, if a real Firebrand Change Candidate emerges for 2020... watch out. This will likely be no one we have seen before. Someone with Trump's fire, not a house fire, a useful fire. Someone with skills and someone who can dominate the playground in a strong but good way and get things done.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by l82start » Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:38 am

one possible exception to my comment above might be war.. the powers that be love a good war, it equals money in the bank for the military industrial complex and the establishment politicians that they fund, and it scares the public into fearing making changes at home while we are fighting.
when the war drums start beating you can bet there are calculations being made by unpopular leaders to get reelected and save their positions in power..


yes a better more real Firebrand Change Candidate would have a strong shot at beating trump... i would love to see that happen...
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:52 am

I voted for "he'll choose not to run again." Politics is hard, he's going to be ~ 75 years old, and he's got a low approval rating most of the time. Then again, I was surprised he made it this far.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Maddy » Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:06 pm

ochotona wrote:People wanted a Firebrand Change Candidate in 2016, that's what they voted for when they voted for Trump, but he was always just a Firebrand Clown. Now, if a real Firebrand Change Candidate emerges for 2020... watch out. This will likely be no one we have seen before. Someone with Trump's fire, not a house fire, a useful fire. Someone with skills and someone who can dominate the playground in a strong but good way and get things done.
It's a very likely possibility. The "takeaway" from the outcome of the 2016 election is that a non-establishment candidate CAN win. I'll wager that candidate won't be Trump simply because it doesn't have to be. And now that the base is aware of what enormous power it yields even without the endorsement of either party, I'd expect that the non-establishment candidate in 2020 will be flying it alone.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by TennPaGa » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:26 am

sophie wrote:
Pointedstick wrote:The stock market only affects the small minority of people like us. The unemployment rate is indeed getting better, but masks low labor force participation rate (especially for males), near-zero wage growth, an unfavorable distribution of full-time jobs vs part-time jobs, and most of the new jobs being in low-paying dead-end fields like retail and hospitality. The skyrocketing costs of college, healthcare, and housing in nice places play into this too, since they are far outstripping many people's ability to pay for them.

It's not "the economy" but rather how people feel about their prospects. Elites like us feel good and have for a long time. Many others don't feel optimistic about the future and haven't for some time.
+1. This is exactly what befuddled the 2016 election: a large slice of the voting population let the rest of us know that they didn't like being left out of the economic party. What's changed since then? Nothing that I can see. When the economy is reported as doing well, that means corporate profits are up. Great for stock holdings, but it's only a small part of the overall picture.

I was hoping that the Democrats & Republicans would get the message, but they haven't and it seems that they never will. No idea what the voting bloc that put Trump into office will do in 2020 though, and that will probably decide the election. They might latch onto another populist candidate, or stick with Trump if the Republicans let him keep the nomination, or just not even bother to turn up.
+1 to both PS's and sophie's posts (I suppose that's a +2).

However, to sophie's line above that I underlined... It isn't clear to me that even Trump has gotten the message. That is, it seems to me that he won the election by stressing 3 issues (which I like to think of as Americans First):

1. Close the borders
2. Improve economic prospects for the non-elite working class
3. Stop U.S. involvement in foreign wars

But, thus far, he has failed to prioritize any of these things.

To be fair, I do see some broad movement on #1, though publicly throwing Jeff Sessions under the bus does not seem to be a smart strategy.

However, Trump has not provided any serious push on #2 (except tax reform, and this will not directly help the working class), and has gone backward on #3: the U.S. seems determined to stick their noses in even more places.

For example, why hasn't he been publicly pushing for an infrastructure spending plan, instead putting weight behind the failed "repeal/replace Obamacare" effort? Pushing a spending bill could have built up some good will with D's in Congress.

On foreign policy... well, Fred Reed (fredoneverything) says it better (and more irreverently) than I ever could:
Oh Lord, it’s happening–the remanufacture of Trump by the Establishment. During the campaign, Trump and [Hillary] had nothing in common but their hair dye. Now, almost daily, he looks more like her.

He gets embarrassing. Regarding the alleged gassing in Syria, quoth Donald:

“When you kill innocent children, innocent babies — babies, little babies — with a chemical gas … that crosses many, many lines, beyond a red line. … And I will tell you, that attack on children yesterday had a big impact on me … my attitude toward Syria and Assad has changed very much.”

God almighty. Who wrote this–a middle school girl with C’s in English, or the President of the United States? Did he retire to his bedroom for a good cry?
...
Is the man consciously a liar? Hasn’t got sense enough to think before operating his mouth? Actually believes what he says when he says it?

Glance at a small part of the record and focus on his changing his tune, not on whether you agree with a particular policy. Erratic, erratic, erratic. He was going to run out the illegals within two years, absurd but he said it. Going to put high tariffs on Mexican goods. Didn’t. On Chinese goods. Isn’t. Tear up the Iran treaty. Didn’t. Declare China a currency-manipulator. Isn’t. Ban Muslims. Hasn’t. Promote good relations with Russia. Isn’t. Get the US out of Syria. Ha. Make NATO pay for itself. Isn’t. The man has the steely determination one associates with bean curd. You cannot trust anything the man says.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by ochotona » Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:22 am

TennPaGa wrote:The man has the steely determination one associates with bean curd. You cannot trust anything the man says.[/size][/font]
;D

To bring it back to investing, that's why I am really glad to be 100% out of US Stocks, per Antonacci GEM Dual Momentum, because I will be little less in the cross-hairs when whatever comes next comes next and then settles in for a bite. I'm thinking Debt Ceiling / Government Shutdown.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by barrett » Tue Aug 08, 2017 6:14 am

dualstow wrote:
Desert wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:Trump won't be on the ballot in November 2020.
What about Pence?
He's still on the fence.
I just wanted you to know that someone still appreciates your wit, dualstow!

I would not could not with a Pence.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by TennPaGa » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:10 am

barrett wrote:
dualstow wrote:
Desert wrote:
What about Pence?
He's still on the fence.
I just wanted you to know that someone still appreciates your wit, dualstow!
+1

FWIW, it reminded me of

"John Valuk is dead.
He fell on his head."

:)
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:15 am

O0
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