Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Wed May 08, 2019 8:37 am

POCAHONTAS STRIKES BACK!!!

In a move that her ancestors at Little Big Horn would have appreciated, Senator (and Presidential candidate) Elizabeth Warren called for the impeachment of President Donald Trump on the floor of the United States Senate yesterday.

The Donald has already claimed that he would "love to run against her."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 456355002/

With 21 candidates for the Democratic nomination already declared (and more lurking in the wings!) isn't this the most entertaining Presidential campaign in our lifetimes?
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A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed May 08, 2019 8:46 am

“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
That's a great tag line. Groucho actually got wiped out in the crash of '29 after speculating heavily in the market including buying on margin. It took him a long time to recover financially and like so many people who lived through the depression, he was ever after the most conservative investor with a near neurotic phobia of debt.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonM » Wed May 08, 2019 11:34 am

Possibly the biggest threat to Trump's re-election shaping up on the horizon?

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/i-dar ... rformance/
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed May 08, 2019 12:00 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 11:34 am
Possibly the biggest threat to Trump's re-election shaping up on the horizon?

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/i-dar ... rformance/
Some of that list is just noise. The ordinary ups and downs of business. Brick and mortal retail is in trouble, has been since before the not so great depression we just experienced, and that is not going to change. But some of it should be cause for concern. The level of debt at every level of society is staggering and when that reaches a tipping point, the broader economy will suffer. Unemployment statistics are a bit like the inflation figures. They should be taken only with a very large grain of salt. That said, for the moment the economy is doing well. Conceding special case exceptions, for the most part if you want a job you can get one. It may not be your dream job. But I can't go anywhere w/o seeing "Help Wanted" signs. But yeah. We are going into year nine or ten depending on how you date the economic recovery, of the longest economic expansion that the US has accurate records for.

How long can this go on?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonM » Wed May 08, 2019 2:17 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 12:00 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 11:34 am
Possibly the biggest threat to Trump's re-election shaping up on the horizon?

https://thewashingtonstandard.com/i-dar ... rformance/
Some of that list is just noise. The ordinary ups and downs of business. Brick and mortal retail is in trouble, has been since before the not so great depression we just experienced, and that is not going to change. But some of it should be cause for concern. The level of debt at every level of society is staggering and when that reaches a tipping point, the broader economy will suffer. Unemployment statistics are a bit like the inflation figures. They should be taken only with a very large grain of salt. That said, for the moment the economy is doing well. Conceding special case exceptions, for the most part if you want a job you can get one. It may not be your dream job. But I can't go anywhere w/o seeing "Help Wanted" signs. But yeah. We are going into year nine or ten depending on how you date the economic recovery, of the longest economic expansion that the US has accurate records for.

How long can this go on?
The underlined part is what I find baffling about the claim that "nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now". Who are these Americans and why don't they have jobs? And how can this claim and the claim that unemployment is at an all time low both be true?

Since very little is being done on the front of Trump's signature campaign promise, i.e. stopping illegal immigration, I don't see much hope of him being re-elected if the economy turns south.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jacksonM » Wed May 08, 2019 2:54 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 2:39 pm
jacksonM wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 2:17 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 12:00 pm


Some of that list is just noise. The ordinary ups and downs of business. Brick and mortal retail is in trouble, has been since before the not so great depression we just experienced, and that is not going to change. But some of it should be cause for concern. The level of debt at every level of society is staggering and when that reaches a tipping point, the broader economy will suffer. Unemployment statistics are a bit like the inflation figures. They should be taken only with a very large grain of salt. That said, for the moment the economy is doing well. Conceding special case exceptions, for the most part if you want a job you can get one. It may not be your dream job. But I can't go anywhere w/o seeing "Help Wanted" signs. But yeah. We are going into year nine or ten depending on how you date the economic recovery, of the longest economic expansion that the US has accurate records for.

How long can this go on?
The underlined part is what I find baffling about the claim that "nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now". Who are these Americans and why don't they have jobs? And how can this claim and the claim that unemployment is at an all time low both be true?
It's the AOC "unwilling to work" crowd. I was in New Orleans recently and as we walked around the French Quarter there were panhandlers everywhere, often literally in front of stores/restaurants with help wanted signs in the window.
That's probably some of them but the 102 million figure might also include people like me. I got laid off from my job almost 3 years ago and never returned to work. I was 67 years old at the time and decided to retire.

If that's the case it's a misleading statistic.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Xan » Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm

Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by WiseOne » Thu May 09, 2019 7:18 am

Actually, unemployment is at its lowest in 49 years:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-cr ... 2019-05-03

When you add up the number of people living in the US not eligible or desiring to work, 102 million sounds about right. I'm perfectly fine with my 7 year old niece and 84 year old mother not having jobs.

There's nothing on that list that says anything useful about the economy, except possibly for the one about manufacturing output being down, if it's true. It's all just noise taken out of context. I guess no one really wants to admit that the new tax law may actually have done some good (except to the housing market, which is going through a probably painful adjustment period).
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu May 09, 2019 11:41 am

Xan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
This is one way to read the data... which is an interesting flip from the usual read, which is that a reduced workforce participation rate is a sign of a sluggish economy offering bad jobs. And people just quit looking out of despair.

Either way, I'm more about looking at real median wages. This is the foundation that keeps Americans able to save and withstand periods of high unemployment without it destroying their lives. I'd also like to look at the average American's balance sheet, but it's hard to glean out of all the different measures that try to include/dis-include various items.

But I absolutely agree with you that we should have a more flexible view of what consists of a "good economy." I think it would be splendid if as wages grew we worked fewer hours and sacrificed growth for personal freedom and family time. Of course, you would need median wages to rise for that to happen, and for all that our economic growth has given us, real wage gains have been sh!t.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 4:18 pm

moda0306 wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:41 am
Xan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
This is one way to read the data... which is an interesting flip from the usual read, which is that a reduced workforce participation rate is a sign of a sluggish economy offering bad jobs. And people just quit looking out of despair.
I think you could look at it both ways and get a good grasp of the situation. A lot of the jobs that aren't being filled are the "bad" ones (low paying and physically taxing). I don't think companies are having a hard time hiring people to sit behind a desk, but I could be wrong. So that said, I suspect physical impairments are limiting the jobs some people apply for, and a lot of people can't pass drug tests.

I mean, hasn't the prime working age male employment situation been getting some press recently? How many children and non-working wives are there, really? Marriage is down, fertility is down.

Then again, the fast food places around me seem to be staffed mostly by teenagers outside of school hours. I think it's a good sign that adults aren't taking up those jobs and the teenagers can do them.
Either way, I'm more about looking at real median wages. This is the foundation that keeps Americans able to save and withstand periods of high unemployment without it destroying their lives. I'd also like to look at the average American's balance sheet, but it's hard to glean out of all the different measures that try to include/dis-include various items.

But I absolutely agree with you that we should have a more flexible view of what consists of a "good economy." I think it would be splendid if as wages grew we worked fewer hours and sacrificed growth for personal freedom and family time. Of course, you would need median wages to rise for that to happen, and for all that our economic growth has given us, real wage gains have been sh!t.
Something (somewhat related) that gets me is how many people refuse to leave high COL locations when they aren't earning the high incomes that would justify it. Like, if you are working in one of those bad jobs, especially because you've reached your Peter Principle ceiling, you will vastly improve your life by going and doing it in a low COL location. I'm thinking people like warehouse workers, retail workers, fast food, those kinds of things. You could live a fairly middle class lifestyle working at a fast food joint for 30 hours a week in a large portion of the country.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Thu May 09, 2019 5:43 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 4:18 pm
moda0306 wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 11:41 am
Xan wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Sure it includes you. It's "people who don't have a job". It includes children, retirees, housewives, you name it.

As long as unemployment (the number of people who want to work but aren't) is low, I think the more people who don't have a job, the better. Doesn't that mean we're prosperous?
This is one way to read the data... which is an interesting flip from the usual read, which is that a reduced workforce participation rate is a sign of a sluggish economy offering bad jobs. And people just quit looking out of despair.
I think you could look at it both ways and get a good grasp of the situation. A lot of the jobs that aren't being filled are the "bad" ones (low paying and physically taxing). I don't think companies are having a hard time hiring people to sit behind a desk, but I could be wrong. So that said, I suspect physical impairments are limiting the jobs some people apply for, and a lot of people can't pass drug tests.

I mean, hasn't the prime working age male employment situation been getting some press recently? How many children and non-working wives are there, really? Marriage is down, fertility is down.

Then again, the fast food places around me seem to be staffed mostly by teenagers outside of school hours. I think it's a good sign that adults aren't taking up those jobs and the teenagers can do them.
Either way, I'm more about looking at real median wages. This is the foundation that keeps Americans able to save and withstand periods of high unemployment without it destroying their lives. I'd also like to look at the average American's balance sheet, but it's hard to glean out of all the different measures that try to include/dis-include various items.

But I absolutely agree with you that we should have a more flexible view of what consists of a "good economy." I think it would be splendid if as wages grew we worked fewer hours and sacrificed growth for personal freedom and family time. Of course, you would need median wages to rise for that to happen, and for all that our economic growth has given us, real wage gains have been sh!t.
Something (somewhat related) that gets me is how many people refuse to leave high COL locations when they aren't earning the high incomes that would justify it. Like, if you are working in one of those bad jobs, especially because you've reached your Peter Principle ceiling, you will vastly improve your life by going and doing it in a low COL location. I'm thinking people like warehouse workers, retail workers, fast food, those kinds of things. You could live a fairly middle class lifestyle working at a fast food joint for 30 hours a week in a large portion of the country.
Can you help me with the math on that? 30 x $12 x 50 weeks per year = $18,000. I think I could figure out how to live relatively happily on $18k per year, but I could never live "a middle class lifestyle" I don think, especially if that includes having kids.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 5:51 pm

Yes, $18,000. Obviously it depends on your definition of middle class, but you can afford a decent apartment, a car, good food, clothes/furnishings/other durables, and some entertainment on that, which is the way I see lower middle class status. Maybe not with kids, but middle class single is doable on entry-level jobs.

EDIT

These are the numbers I'm thinking of
  • $650-750 rent can get a decent apartment in a city in the midwest, or a house in a less fashionable area
  • $220 for groceries, give or take depending on how much you eat, is plenty
  • $130 for transportation should cover whatever combination of transit/ridesharing, gas, insurance, maintenance
  • $40 is guestimating a premium for health insurance? Not really sure here.
That's $1,040 to cover the basics. $460 left over. If I was just starting out and didn't have a car or any furniture, I would be saving up until I could afford a good used car for $5,000 or so, or about a year of taking the bus. I'd probably also cut out processed and unhealthy food from my grocery shopping and put it towards buying some furniture (small apartments don't need much). Once you get that stuff taken care of, you can split the surplus up between savings and luxuries however you want. You probably have been promoted by this time too, so you'd be earning more.
Last edited by Kriegsspiel on Thu May 09, 2019 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu May 09, 2019 5:57 pm

In the United States an annual income of $18k is on the low end of working class. That doesn't mean you can't make do on that. A lot depends on where your priorities in life are. My time in the Navy taught me how little I really needed and still remained fairly happy. There is definitely more to life than material things. But I don't know anyone who would call that a middle class income in a developed country.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 6:35 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 5:57 pm
In the United States an annual income of $18k is on the low end of working class.
The argument I was trying to make was that you can blur the lines between poor and middle class by how you deploy your money. What I had in mind was something more like an aesthetic issue, not a pure dollars issue, in sense of the 3 Ladders class definitions, as opposed to Pew Research's "middle class income is between 1/3 and double the median."
There is definitely more to life than material things. But I don't know anyone who would call that a middle class income in a developed country.
If they didn't know that the person worked at McDonalds.. If they only knew that our hero had a car and an apartment (maybe he had them over for dinner or game night or something), and he organized a golf outing with the group the second Thursday of the month, went out for beers with the gang every once in a while, was clean and well groomed (being presentable is low cost/high value), was well read (library, baby!), and generally not stressed out about money, why wouldn't they think he was middle class?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Thu May 09, 2019 7:53 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 6:35 pm
Ad Orientem wrote:
Thu May 09, 2019 5:57 pm
In the United States an annual income of $18k is on the low end of working class.
The argument I was trying to make was that you can blur the lines between poor and middle class by how you deploy your money. What I had in mind was something more like an aesthetic issue, not a pure dollars issue, in sense of the 3 Ladders class definitions, as opposed to Pew Research's "middle class income is between 1/3 and double the median."


Is this a good time for me to plug earn dot org? I’m still checking it out, but..four stars in charity navigator.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 09, 2019 8:21 pm

Well, they chose to locate their office in San Fransisco, so it doesn't seem like they're concerned with being good stewards of the donations they get as a charity. And they use the word "intersection." They also advocate for some stupid student loan policies too. So I'm voting no. Just link people to ERE or MMM or any of the tons of free content out there.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow » Thu May 09, 2019 8:39 pm

Hmm, I’m definitely not a fan of “intersectional.” Need more research. Thank you.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by boglerdude » Thu May 09, 2019 10:37 pm

> Something that gets me is how many people refuse to leave high COL locations when they aren't earning the high incomes that would justify it.

People dont like change. Gov should do more on this, some say UBI would help with mobility. I think high speed rail would be a better start. If the CA rail gets built, living inland would be more palatable.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by WiseOne » Fri May 10, 2019 7:09 am

Some personal observations from living in a city that's as HCOL as it gets (NY):

- if you're earning minimum wage and working full time, you're most likely a recent immigrant and you don't speak English. You live in a neighborhood where the residents and retail businesses all speak your language (e.g.. Spanish), and you have a tight network of family & friends that are a critical support structure. In that situation, moving away is unfathomable.

- The HCOL city in question provides many services & benefits that augment that minimum wage income, e.g. food stamps and Medicaid, plus free transit if you're low income. Also, no need for a car.

- Most likely you actually work that minimum wage job part time. The rest of the time, you do something else and get paid a lot more under the table. Handyman or mover jobs, housecleaning, dog-walking/cat sitting etc, earns you a LOT more than minimum wage post-tax, probably $20/hour in cash on the low end. There's also the chance of landing a cushy, well paid unionized city job with generous benefits including a pension that you can start drawing on in your mid 40s.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Fri May 10, 2019 8:34 am

US military pensions for those who entered before 1981 allowed service members to retire at half pay after 20 years active service. Retirement pay is protected against inflation by federal law. Retirees also received free health care and GI Bill benefits, access to the post exchange and commissary, and access to the global network of free space-available travel aboard US Air Force transports and charters.

At one time, the US Postal Service and many police and fire departments across the country had similar retirement plans, if not all of the fringe benefits of the military. Obviously, all those retirement plans (for new members) have been phased out and shifted from defined benefit to defined contribution schemes over the last 30-40 years.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kbg » Fri May 10, 2019 10:30 am

I think there is so much dishonesty when it comes to pensions. I’ll mention a couple thoughts for my area of work.

The military is a young persons profession by and large. After WW2 the system was revamped to force people out at younger ages based on rank. Heart attacks and strokes were a very common occurrence amongst the professionals during the first year of the war. It should stay that way. Recently the system was changed to be more like the normal world. This was also tried in the early 90s with disastrous retention results.

Locally, do we really want 60 year old line police officers or firefighters?

I don’t profess to know where the exact line is but a system needs to recognize these aren’t lifetime professions in the traditional sense.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Fri May 10, 2019 3:08 pm

My point was simply that many military and first responders retire in their 40s—and most of them probably should. I would also point out that most of this population of retirees go on to develop second careers and really can’t be tagged as hangers-on with “outsized pensions.”

Other professions do not have the same physical demands and those in good health may continue working into their 70s and 80s. Warren Buffett (now age 88) does not draw a pension or Social Security (as far as I can tell) and nobody at the recent Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting called for his resignation or retirement.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by WiseOne » Sat May 11, 2019 1:15 pm

Military, police, and firefighters absolutely deserve their early pensions. I'm talking about MTA workers (e.g. train drivers/conductors/the guy who sits in the subway elevator and pushes buttons) or equivalent. They get to draw pensions early at a discounted rate once they've done their 20 years of service, but they can pump up their final pension basis by doing a lot of overtime in their last year. Many end up retiring on close to the same salary they earned working full time.

https://nypost.com/2019/04/24/lirr-reti ... s-pension/

However, the poor slob working full time at McDonald's for minimum wage is the one we're discussing here...just saying that I don't think such a person exists in this city, at least not for long. There are too many easier or more lucrative routes to self-sufficiency, including things like qualifying for SSI. That's the thing about a complex system, it's too easy to game it.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Tue May 14, 2019 3:51 pm

WiseOne, your MTA pension freeloader is clearly an outlier who has spent the last 30 years studying up on how to game the pension rules in the one city in the country where monopolistic unions continue to prop up a bizarre system for the benefit of fewer and fewer workers. I suppose this sort of pension scheme will disappear in our lifetimes.

Defined benefit pensions used to be altogether common in the USA. Since then, there has unquestionably been a nation-wide shift toward defined contribution pension schemes. It seems to have worked quite well for Wall Street types looking forward to stashing away their next bonus, but not necessarily so well for the middle and working classes.
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A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by moda0306 » Tue May 14, 2019 4:48 pm

jhogue wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 3:51 pm
WiseOne, your MTA pension freeloader is clearly an outlier who has spent the last 30 years studying up on how to game the pension rules in the one city in the country where monopolistic unions continue to prop up a bizarre system for the benefit of fewer and fewer workers. I suppose this sort of pension scheme will disappear in our lifetimes.

Defined benefit pensions used to be altogether common in the USA. Since then, there has unquestionably been a nation-wide shift toward defined contribution pension schemes. It seems to have worked quite well for Wall Street types looking forward to stashing away their next bonus, but not necessarily so well for the middle and working classes.
This brings me to something I've realized since working in business tax... and that's that Employer-based contributions are woefully under-used, but mostly because I don't think workers value them that much. The maximum for a SEP or 401k Profit Sharing is 25% of an employee's wage income. That means 20% of an employees compensation can be not only free from their income taxable income, but also free from BOTH sides of FICA/Medicare, which amounts to 7.65% for each party (employer/employee), or 15.3% total.

The former can be accomplished through employee contributions (lowered income tax), but not the latter. That means that the "penalty" between employer and employee for employees not valuing (and/or employers not providing) an employer contribution to retirement, is resulting in at least 15.3% of missed opportunity to help both parties save tax money.

Further, if you go with a 401k option, but very richly fund the Profit-Sharing portion, you can accomplish all that, but also have a vesting schedule too, which helps "vest" the employee with the future of the company to a certain degree that's not very possible in other ways.

I think these are drastically underused tools. It's a shame we live in a society where both employers and employees are too short-sighted to use/value these things. Even if we're seeing stagnant real wages, and if we have to accept that as a part of reality, it still makes sense to shift contributions from employee to employer.

Of course, municipalities should structure their damn pension so somebody can't game it in the final years. Hard to blame anyone for gaming a Pension like that. Don't even give them the option.
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