Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
24
37%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
3
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
6
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
15
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
11%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
5
8%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
5%
Other, please elaborate.
2
3%
 
Total votes: 65
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Tyler wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:21 pm
moda0306 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:51 pm Forget about impeachment or criminal charges for "collusion" or "obstruction"... why don't we start talking about stringing Trump up on war crimes?
??? ::)

(Sigh) After giving up on pushing collusion he didn't do and obstruction he didn't do to chase war crimes he didn't do, maybe the Democrats will eventually get around to finding a presidential nominee who is actually electable.
Well obviously certain dems are going to campaign for president in 2020. Luckily Republicans also have that option as we prosecute war-criminals of this admin and those-past...

But it won't be "dems" that go after him for war-crimes. Or if it is, it's a very select, unpopular, anti-establishment group of them.

Of course this will never happen. Agents of the state don't like to touch that war-power foreign policy stuff with a 40 foot pole.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Libertarian666 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:29 pm
moda0306 wrote: Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:51 pm http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/ ... yemen.html
As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump repeatedly suggested that Saudi Arabia had orchestrated the 9/11 attacks — and that the United States should stop wasting resources on bloody Middle Eastern wars that have no real connection to our national interest.

As president, Trump just vetoed a congressional resolution that would have ended U.S. support for a Saudi war in Yemen that has likely claimed the lives of more than 85,000 children under 5 years old, and triggered the worst humanitarian crisis on planet Earth — so as to defend America’s vital interest in ensuring that the Middle East’s poorest country is ruled by a puppet of Sunni Islamists, instead of Shia ones.
We finally get congress and even the Senate to vote for a resolution to remove our support for the genocide in Yemen, and Trump vetoes it.

The idea that he is an "enemy of the deep state" is ludicrous. He's just another tool of Pompeo, Bolton, Israel, the M-I Complex, etc.

Forget about impeachment or criminal charges for "collusion" or "obstruction"... why don't we start talking about stringing Trump up on war crimes? I'd be curious for anyone who claims to be a libertarian or anarchist to defend Trump at this point. He had the perfect opportunity to withdraw murderous aid and material support without having to burn a ton of political capital, and he didn't even take that.
Of course I'd be in favor of the US withdrawing from all the wars that we are involved in, no matter which President started them.

But tell me, which wars have been started by Trump?

As soon as all previous Presidents are tried and convicted of war crimes, for wars they started, let's talk about this.
"Starting" a war isn't the only criminal offense. How one chooses to execute a war (expanding our murderous drone campaign, for instance) is also obviously a candidate as well.

But of course I agree with an aspect of the principle you propose... Dick Cheney should be included-if-not-the-front-of any war-criminal drag-net.

Luckily, we can pat our heads and rub our stomachs at the same time. Lock em all up! If our state collapses as a result of too many heads rolling, then any self-respecting anarchist should be happy.
Last edited by moda0306 on Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by dualstow »

What about those of us who are not anarchists?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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stuper1 wrote: Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:12 pm Hasn't Trump been the only recent president who has shown any backbone towards China in terms of protecting American trade and intellectual property?
"American" intellectual property? Or global capital class (the ones who own it) intellectual property?

The TPP was actually pretty "good" on intellectual property if you want to bend over for investor/corporate IP rights. To me, that's just yet another way for the uber wealthy (American or foreign) to get even more-so.

But that's the majority of what these "Trade Deals" have really been. They're not about trading coconuts for corn (well not completely). They're about securing foreign corporate & investor property rights insulated from public response in the communities they exist. To the degree you support this but abhor human migration across artificial borders, you're pretty much a folding chair to global capital, and shouldn't wonder why you seem to have less than your parents, or why your kids will have less than you. By "you" I mean people in general...
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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dualstow wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:10 am What about those of us who are not anarchists?
Well if this is regards to Trump's Yemen decision (and other related militarist ones), then you can attack it from other angles, such as hypocrisy of him (or more-so his supporters' assertions of him being 'anti-establishment' or against the 'deep-state'), foreign policy in-general, etc.

If you want to ignore it (say, because foreign policy isn't one of your top issues), that's fine.

If you favor it, then I'd be curious to hear why.

One doesn't have to be an anarchist to see the hypocrisy/idiocy on display... or even the war-crimes. Just a human with a working mind who will chuckle at phrases like "anti-establishment" or "taking on the deep-state."

However, I highly doubt this will affect his reelection chances. Americans simply don't care about the foreign policy stuff that much. It triggers them from time to time, but usually when that's the case, it's a pro-war trigger, not anti-war.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Didn't we go over this in another thread? IIRC you were accusing Trump of war crimes because an American company sold a bomb to Saudi Arabia that they dropped on a school bus. That's not Trump committing a war crime.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:32 am Didn't we go over this in another thread? IIRC you were accusing Trump of war crimes because an American company sold a bomb to Saudi Arabia that they dropped on a school bus. That's not Trump committing a war crime.
You don't recall correctly. Literally less than a minute of research will help you...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... rikes.html
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:32 am Didn't we go over this in another thread? IIRC you were accusing Trump of war crimes because an American company sold a bomb to Saudi Arabia that they dropped on a school bus. That's not Trump committing a war crime.
moda0306 wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:01 am You don't recall correctly. Literally less than a minute of research will help you...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... rikes.html
I think what moda usually says is that Trump is "supporting (Saudi) genocide" in Yemen. You might be thinking of the following:
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel »

Nothing in that article suggests Trump has committed a war crime. Also it's from when Obama was in office (OCT 2016), not Trump. EDIT: just re-read it and saw the part about drone strikes.

BTW I found the post I was referencing here. You said war-mongering not war-criming (Scott Horton did).
Kriegsspiel wrote: Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:25 pm
moda0306 wrote: Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:27 pm Yemen he's helping the U.S. participate in a terrible genocide. Afghanistan. Some in Syria though it appears to have died down a bit for now. Continuing to expand the empire into Africa.

I'll also add the ridiculous retrenchment with Iran, though sanctions aren't outright war.

I'd recommend following "Scott Horton" on anti-war stuff if you want the best version of that argument. He's no lefty (claims to be an ancap but rarely focuses on economics).
LOL... bro, I go to his site, and the first headline I see is "Bear Witness To American War Crimes". It's an article about a Saudi Arabian airstrike in Yemen. How is it an American war crime? Because the Saudis use American-made bombs ::) . Give me a break. His other stuff might be ok, but didn't you think you should put his best foot forward? In fact, I didn't see anything that indicated Trump has started bombing Yemen.

A cursory search for Trump and Afghanistan turned up an Economist article saying that Trump authorized deploying 3,500 and relaxed restrictions on air support and on what we used to call Military Transition Teams, or MITTs/MIT teams, and a Brookings article that added that he's maintaining a presence there still. Although I don't think that's a good idea, it doesn't really sound like war mongering to me.

"Trump Syria" kinda tells me that he's kept up the bombing, but is only leaving 3,000 military personnel on the ground. One article said
He has ended support for anti-regime rebels. And he talks of recalling US forces assisting pro-western Kurds.

Trump’s objectives in Syria, in so far as he has a defined policy, are twofold. Firstly, to kill or catch remaining terrorists belonging to Islamic State. Secondly, to curb Iran’s influence by forcing the withdrawal of Revolutionary Guards units and Tehran-controlled Shia militias, as demanded by Israel.
Again, doesn't sound like war mongering. Drop links if you've already waded through this shit.
When looking for that one, I saw PointedStick had posted a thread that linked to this Politico article where members of the Obama administration were worrying about being accused of abetting war crimes that Saudi Arabia was committing.

Following the links from that Politico story, I see that they were referring to this memory-holed page that describes a US law:
Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended: Section 620M “Limitation on Assistance to
Security Forces”
“(a) IN GENERAL. – No assistance shall be furnished under this Act or the Arms Export
Control Act to any unit of the security forces of a foreign country if the Secretary of
State has credible information that such unit has committed a gross violation of
human rights.
(b) EXCEPTION. –The prohibition in subsection (a) shall not apply if the Secretary
determines and reports to the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate, the
Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives, and the Committees
on Appropriations that the government of such country is taking effective steps to
bring responsible members to justice.
(c) DUTY TO INFORM. – In the event that funds are withheld from any unit pursuant to
this section, the Secretary of State shall promptly inform the foreign government of
the basis for such action and shall, to the maximum extent practicable, assist the
foreign government in taking effective measures to bring the responsible members of
the security forces to justice.
Which would be the applicable law, not (AFAICT) international criminal law (or UCMJ), which prosecutes war crimes.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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"Support" can be a misleading term. It's not "moral support." It's not selling weapons or allowing the sale of weapons. It's literal military support...

"The Americans are providing targeting intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes involved in bombing rebel positions."

That is only the Yemen thing. Trump also expanded the war in Afghanistan...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47480207

https://merip.org/2018/02/trumps-drone-surge/

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-ram ... hadow-wars


And military activity in Africa in-general...

https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/ ... ver-africa


Not to mention Trump's disgusting support of whatever Israel/Netanyahu does, and yeah... you've got a war-criminal.

Yes Obama was one, too. Arguably worse in some ways. Better in others. But 1) He no-longer has much power compared to the current president, and 2) I'd probably be preaching to the choir here if I point out that Obama was subservient to the "deep state."
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Kriegsspiel wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:10 am Nothing in that article suggests Trump has committed a war crime. Also it's from when Obama was in office (OCT 2016), not Trump. EDIT: just re-read it and saw the part about drone strikes.

BTW I found the post I was referencing here. You said war-mongering not war-criming (Scott Horton did).
Kriegsspiel wrote: Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:25 pm
moda0306 wrote: Fri Sep 07, 2018 3:27 pm Yemen he's helping the U.S. participate in a terrible genocide. Afghanistan. Some in Syria though it appears to have died down a bit for now. Continuing to expand the empire into Africa.

I'll also add the ridiculous retrenchment with Iran, though sanctions aren't outright war.

I'd recommend following "Scott Horton" on anti-war stuff if you want the best version of that argument. He's no lefty (claims to be an ancap but rarely focuses on economics).
LOL... bro, I go to his site, and the first headline I see is "Bear Witness To American War Crimes". It's an article about a Saudi Arabian airstrike in Yemen. How is it an American war crime? Because the Saudis use American-made bombs ::) . Give me a break. His other stuff might be ok, but didn't you think you should put his best foot forward? In fact, I didn't see anything that indicated Trump has started bombing Yemen.

A cursory search for Trump and Afghanistan turned up an Economist article saying that Trump authorized deploying 3,500 and relaxed restrictions on air support and on what we used to call Military Transition Teams, or MITTs/MIT teams, and a Brookings article that added that he's maintaining a presence there still. Although I don't think that's a good idea, it doesn't really sound like war mongering to me.

"Trump Syria" kinda tells me that he's kept up the bombing, but is only leaving 3,000 military personnel on the ground. One article said
He has ended support for anti-regime rebels. And he talks of recalling US forces assisting pro-western Kurds.

Trump’s objectives in Syria, in so far as he has a defined policy, are twofold. Firstly, to kill or catch remaining terrorists belonging to Islamic State. Secondly, to curb Iran’s influence by forcing the withdrawal of Revolutionary Guards units and Tehran-controlled Shia militias, as demanded by Israel.
Again, doesn't sound like war mongering. Drop links if you've already waded through this shit.
When looking for that one, I saw PointedStick had posted a thread that linked to this Politico article where members of the Obama administration were worrying about being accused of abetting war crimes that Saudi Arabia was committing.

Following the links from that Politico story, I see that they were referring to this memory-holed page that describes a US law:
Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended: Section 620M “Limitation on Assistance to
Security Forces”
“(a) IN GENERAL. – No assistance shall be furnished under this Act or the Arms Export
Control Act to any unit of the security forces of a foreign country if the Secretary of
State has credible information that such unit has committed a gross violation of
human rights.
(b) EXCEPTION. –The prohibition in subsection (a) shall not apply if the Secretary
determines and reports to the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate, the
Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives, and the Committees
on Appropriations that the government of such country is taking effective steps to
bring responsible members to justice.
(c) DUTY TO INFORM. – In the event that funds are withheld from any unit pursuant to
this section, the Secretary of State shall promptly inform the foreign government of
the basis for such action and shall, to the maximum extent practicable, assist the
foreign government in taking effective measures to bring the responsible members of
the security forces to justice.
Which would be the applicable law, not (AFAICT) international criminal law (or UCMJ), which prosecutes war crimes.
Did you also notice that your assertion that Saudi's were simply using American-manufactured bombs was incorrect?

And yes Obama started the whole Yemen thing. You'll see no apologist garbage from me with regards to Obama. He was terrible on a handful of perma-war surveillance state issues (if you're an anti-war civil libertarian). Lock him up too. Like I said we can do multiple things at once with our sprawling justice system.

As far as the jurisdictional and legalese aspects of war-crime prosecution, I've got to dig into my sources for that. I've heard folks like Chomsky, Greenwald, Horton and a few others go into the actual various layers of legal precedent and procedural machinations of war crime prosecution, but they're not at my fingertips and it's been a while. It's also a bit difficult to suss out actual accusations of war crimes vs digging into the legal machinations of how they would/could/should be prosecuted.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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MangoMan wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:35 am And you would save yourself a whole bunch of stress if you just accept the fact that corporate interests and the elites are not going away no matter who you vote for, so just be at peace with what you can not change, and try and use the system (legally) to your best benefit while simulaneously giving back to society what is important to you.
Words of wisdom.

Moda, just to satisfy my curiosity: are there any world leaders whom you think did a good job overall? Separately, any U.S. Presidents?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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MangoMan wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:35 am
moda0306 wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:12 am
But that's the majority of what these "Trade Deals" have really been. They're not about trading coconuts for corn (well not completely). They're about securing foreign corporate & investor property rights insulated from public response in the communities they exist. To the degree you support this but abhor human migration across artificial borders, you're pretty much a folding chair to global capital, and shouldn't wonder why you seem to have less than your parents, or why your kids will have less than you. By "you" I mean people in general...
I'm not sure if it's just me, but trying to decipher your posts through all the metaphors and side-speak to get the context is drudgery. Anyway, I completely disagree with the bolded part. Not sure why you draw the connection/conclusion that you did, but regardless, I have way more wealth than my parents did (as do my siblings) and I fully expect that my kids will have more than me at the same age. This country offers exceptional opportunities for all of its residents who are willing to work hard and not make stupid life choices. The problem is that most people are not willing to do the work and can't avoid making poor choices. That's on them. People are their own worst enemies.

And you would save yourself a whole bunch of stress if you just accept the fact that corporate interests and the elites are not going away no matter who you vote for, so just be at peace with what you can not change, and try and use the system (legally) to your best benefit while simulaneously giving back to society what is important to you.
It may not seem like it, but I'm at peace with the systems I can't control. These systems cause me personally little/no stress. In-fact, my analysis of these systems helps me come to the (perhaps incorrect but useful) conclusion that most people are balls of social proof and insecurity that have no idea what they're talking about, and I don't have to worry about their inconsistent ramblings about politics or life decisions (or investing... sort of what brought me here almost a decade ago).

And I didn't mean that EVERYONE is worse off than their parents. I just see many that are (or think they are) are completely misdiagnosing the problem. Good for you for helping produce two consecutive generations of improvement over the lot of the prior. I mean that... it probably takes focus and discipline. My point is that it takes far-more focus and discipline than it ever used to, and that this isn't an accident.

As to whether "this country" delivers exceptional opportunities to "all" of its residents, I'd probably have a bone to pick with you around the edges of that statement, but if it's so awesome, I see no reason to b!tch and moan about libruls all the live-long-day as so many here do (talk about not accepting something you can't control). If it has flaws or serious structural issues, let's examine them honestly (and structurally, not b!tching about individual failures).

We'd probably disagree on the individualist vs structural nature of the problems some Americans face. I think when you cut away a lot of the bullsh!t, it comes down to the fact that a high-school education and modest (not amazing) work ethic with few connections was far, far more likely to leave you financially secure in 1970 than it is today. And it's mostly the fault of class-unconscious masses that abandoned unions and embraced (if tacitly) trade deals that were designed to supplant their bargaining power as workers. Then when they aren't as wealthy as they thought they should have been they want to blame brown people and taxes. The first part about wages is something I'd consider a pretty undeniable fact. Whether it's important or not is probably a value proposition and we may or may not disagree. What caused/causes it is a matter of an unprovable cause/effect relationship that probably has some basis in fact, but we'll only be able to lend evidence towards it and never really know for sure.

I hope that last paragraph helps break down my thoughts more clearly. Less drudgery and all that.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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dualstow wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:59 am
MangoMan wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:35 am And you would save yourself a whole bunch of stress if you just accept the fact that corporate interests and the elites are not going away no matter who you vote for, so just be at peace with what you can not change, and try and use the system (legally) to your best benefit while simulaneously giving back to society what is important to you.
Words of wisdom.

Moda, just to satisfy my curiosity: are there any world leaders whom you think did a good job overall? Separately, any U.S. Presidents?
If we are defining a "good job" as (for example) "advancing the interests of the whole of your population," then yeah probably, but they usually did so while also being war-criminals and having some massive flaws. The easiest ones to name would probably have to be American as I'm simply more familiar. I think Teddy Roosevelt is one. Probably the single best, though I'd sing a different tune if he'd have been president during WWI, as he was pretty disgustingly pro-war/Imperialism.

If you ignore the Indian population, it's hard to argue that the (genocidal criminals) James K. Polk and Andrew Jackson were both similar in their willingness to execute (pardon the pun) an expansive vision of America that was extremely beneficial to the settler colonial class they represented.

There are many nationalist leaders that, through their actions, proved to be somewhat useful to the interests of their selected population. I can't speak with much certainty, but a lot of left-leaning economic nationalists in the face of gangster Imperialism seemed pretty impressive, like Mohammad Mossadegh and Jacobo Arbenz, though I'm certain they had pockets of corruption and resorted to means I don't find particularly palatable.

The architects of the state of Israel for example (Ben Gurion (spelling?), Begin, forgetting a few) had an unbreakable vision and it's hard to say that they didn't do a "good job" of executing it for those they cared about, though their means were pretty manipulative and disgusting IMO. Which sort of highlights the "zero-sum" nature of some "good jobs" out there.

Overall though I take the Dan Carlin approach to this, where to become "great" you probably have to do terrible things at various times. And I tend to be too anarcho-curious to want to waste too much energy fawning praise upon folks who committed terrible acts to help their group. I simply don't desire someone to kill to do a "good job" for me. I actually find that to be a pretty immature instinct. However to the degree that some "leader" is a steward of my/our interests in some way, I'd want him to use non-violent negotiating power in good faith to that interest.

But I'm still learning/growing on these "men of history" types. They're fascinating, to say the least, so I try to look at it all with a certain moral numbness. Once you find yourself so fascinated you're rooting for Genghis Khan by accident, you tend to want to separate "greatness" from other positive traits. :)
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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MangoMan wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:00 pm I can't speak for others here, but I have no problem with Conservatives or Liberals, my qualm is with Leftists which are the ever growing wing of the Democratic Party. And you sure can do something about that: vote the nutjobs out.

I have always been a centrist. Socially liberal and fiscally conservative. But the conservatives are no longer fiscally conservative and the social fabric here has moved so far left, there is nowhere to hide. I tend to lean a little more to the right these days only because they seem to be a bit less crazy.
I hope you don't take offense, but I think you have an incorrect view of yourself. Sure we've moved left on some issues, but right now taxes on businesses, corporations and capital gains are INSANELY low historically for the last century, and unions are INSANELY weak, as are median real wages. We've been able to export "capital interest farms" to "COMMUNIST" countries like China for plutocrats to harvest at minimal tax/tariff rates. Ideas like Universal Healthcare were pushed (and popular) as early as the mid-1940's, yet I hear you decry any involvement by the government in healthcare.

What issue would you consider yourself most liberal on? And would you flesh that out a bit?

You seem to have "a problem" with anything that isn't at least "center-right." I mean there was NOBODY here (on the PP forum) defending Hillary Clinton (a center-left corporatist dem), but I have a sneaking suspicion if I'd pushed a pro-Hillary stance you would have had some lively debate directed at me... am I incorrect in that assumption? Were you as supportive of Hillary as say a Marco Rubio candidacy? Who was your ideal candidate on the Republican primary stage?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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moda0306 wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:11 pm
dualstow wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:59 am ...

Moda, just to satisfy my curiosity: are there any world leaders whom you think did a good job overall? Separately, any U.S. Presidents?
If we are defining a "good job" as (for example) ...
<snip>
Thank you very much.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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dualstow wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:58 pm
Moda, just to satisfy my curiosity: are there any world leaders whom you think did a good job overall? Separately, any U.S. Presidents?

Image

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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Ad Orientem wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:35 pm
dualstow wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:58 pm
Moda, just to satisfy my curiosity: are there any world leaders whom you think did a good job overall? Separately, any U.S. Presidents?

Image

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Ad,

Who's that guy on top?
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Looks like Tsar Alexander II.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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MangoMan wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:34 pm
moda0306 wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:21 pm
MangoMan wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:00 pm I can't speak for others here, but I have no problem with Conservatives or Liberals, my qualm is with Leftists which are the ever growing wing of the Democratic Party. And you sure can do something about that: vote the nutjobs out.

I have always been a centrist. Socially liberal and fiscally conservative. But the conservatives are no longer fiscally conservative and the social fabric here has moved so far left, there is nowhere to hide. I tend to lean a little more to the right these days only because they seem to be a bit less crazy.
I hope you don't take offense, but I think you have an incorrect view of yourself. Sure we've moved left on some issues, but right now taxes on businesses, corporations and capital gains are INSANELY low historically for the last century, and unions are INSANELY weak, as are median real wages. We've been able to export "capital interest farms" to "COMMUNIST" countries like China for plutocrats to harvest at minimal tax/tariff rates. Ideas like Universal Healthcare were pushed (and popular) as early as the mid-1940's, yet I hear you decry any involvement by the government in healthcare.

What issue would you consider yourself most liberal on? And would you flesh that out a bit?

You seem to have "a problem" with anything that isn't at least "center-right." I mean there was NOBODY here (on the PP forum) defending Hillary Clinton (a center-left corporatist dem), but I have a sneaking suspicion if I'd pushed a pro-Hillary stance you would have had some lively debate directed at me... am I incorrect in that assumption? Were you as supportive of Hillary as say a Marco Rubio candidacy? Who was your ideal candidate on the Republican primary stage?
Hahaha, no offense taken. The women in my life always tell me I'm wrong about everything so why shouldn't you ? O0

Taxes on business: Compared to what? We had one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world until recently, plus stockholders get taxed on the dividends and capital gains, too.

Unions: Don't get me started. Since I am not a socialist, I don't see why unionized workers, particularly ones that work for the taxpayers, should have better benefits than everyone else and wages that are out of line with their training and education. We can debate this forever, but you will never change my view on this.

The government has proven time and again that anything it gets involved with ends up being an inefficient, expensive clusterf*ck. What makes you think health care would be any different? They've already done irreparable damage without even having full control.

I am not as right wing as you think, but since you are pretty far to the left, I probably seem that way to you. I am pro-choice, pro-separation of church and state, and pro-LGBTQ right up until the pronoun nonsense and feminization of men / masculinization of women insanity.
pug,

If you have that sort of ill-will towards unions, you're very economically conservative, as that would be a conservative opinion to take in 1879, much less 2019.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Xan wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:53 pm Looks like Tsar Alexander II.
Yep. With a stroke of the imperial pen he did what it took our democracy four years of bloody fratricidal war to accomplish.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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moda0306 wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:15 am "Support" can be a misleading term. It's not "moral support." It's not selling weapons or allowing the sale of weapons. It's literal military support...

"The Americans are providing targeting intelligence and refueling Saudi warplanes involved in bombing rebel positions."
I saw that. I would be willing to bet money that the US military guys in the targeting cell are not sitting there telling the Saudis "See this, that's a wedding ceremony with a bunch of happy people. We want you guys to go bomb that. When you're done, there is a large force of children playing soccer over here..." But whatever you think, when you're dropping bombs from aircraft, and when the enemy is in populated areas, there will be collateral. But as I've said before, I don't like the idea of drone strikes based on intelligence sources, I suspect they're the cause of a lot of civilian casualties. I think there should be a person on the ground calling it in.
https://merip.org/2018/02/trumps-drone-surge/
In one respect, President Trump has no doubt kept his word. Trump promised during the campaign to “bomb the shit” out of ISIS and it appears to be one of the few promises he has kept. Trump inherited from Obama an escalating war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, but both conventional bombing and drone strikes have significantly increased under Trump as a result of his new ISIS battle plan, whose strategy Defense Secretary James Mattis defines as “annihilation tactics.” According to Newsweek, the United States under Trump has dropped a record number of bombs on the Middle East, roughly 10 percent more than under his predecessors. Trump also loosened rules of engagement that protect civilians and, unsurprisingly, civilian casualties from the US-led war against ISIS will, at this pace, double under Trump.
Seems pretty successful, I think the last ISIS stronghold recently surrendered. Was it worth it? I dunno.

I checked out the reference for the claim that Trump loosened the ROE that protect civilians. It may be the case (it was Daily Beast implying they were quoting Trump directly) that he requested “changes to any United States rules of engagement and other United States policy restrictions that exceed the requirements of international law regarding the use of force against ISIS.”

This was probably because ISIS was digging in around and travelling with civilian human-shields so that we would kill civilians when dropping ordinance. This has become a common tactic over the last several decades (and is one of the reasons, along with increased use of aerial bombing, that 4GW will involve more civilian deaths than one would expect given our level of "technological sophistication"). This is what COL Murray was referring to later in the article, and the whole thing makes this point. Even if their guys all get killed, they can win a psyop battle by emphasizing how many civilians were killed too.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-ram ... hadow-wars
moda0306 wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:26 am Did you also notice that your assertion that Saudi's were simply using American-manufactured bombs was incorrect?
No. But I wasn't asserting that, I was referring to the Horton article where HE was asserting that because a US bomb was dropped on a school bus, the US was guilty of war crimes. At least that's what I remember it saying, I can't find it on his site anymore.
As far as the jurisdictional and legalese aspects of war-crime prosecution, I've got to dig into my sources for that. I've heard folks like Chomsky, Greenwald, Horton and a few others go into the actual various layers of legal precedent and procedural machinations of war crime prosecution, but they're not at my fingertips and it's been a while. It's also a bit difficult to suss out actual accusations of war crimes vs digging into the legal machinations of how they would/could/should be prosecuted.
You keep saying various Presidents are or have been committing war crimes by virtue of their policies instead of by doing specific things. So by extension, the military is committing war crimes when it does normal military things to execute the policies. There are some things everyone would agree are heinous: My Lai, Mahmudiya, Serbian soldiers killing civilians with sledgehammers. But if a soldier manning a howitzer kills civilians when he fires on coordinates he gets on a radio, or a pilot providing close air support, it's not a war crime, that's what happens in modern warfare. But it's hard to figure out what aspect from them you think are war crimes. For instance, I went through the NPR article about AFRICOM and clicked through a couple links from it and I still can't tell what you are referring to from them. Might be an Overton Window issue.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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MangoMan wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:24 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote: Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:11 pm
This was probably because ISIS was digging in around and travelling with civilian human-shields so that we would kill civilians when dropping ordinance. This has become a common tactic over the last several decades (and is one of the reasons, along with increased use of aerial bombing, that 4GW will involve more civilian deaths than one would expect given our level of "technological sophistication"). This is what COL Murray was referring to later in the article, and the whole thing makes this point. Even if their guys all get killed, they can win a psyop battle by emphasizing how many civilians were killed too.
Kriegs, you seem to be pretty well informed on this stuff, so can you clarify: Is that more common in general or only with Islamists? If the latter, do you think Israel is getting a bad rap for the way they are trying to deal with this?
Well, I'm no expert. But speculating, it's going to be more common, one of the downsides of urbanization and weapons' technological advancement.

If you park your unit out in the open somewhere, they're all going to be dead or wounded in short order (1). If you put them in a city (combined with psyop and propaganda), your enemy either won't bomb you because they don't want to destroy their own citizens/economy (it's like you're calling their bluff on how tenacious/legit they are), or they do, and take the psyop hit. Russia executed a pretty much flawless operation when they inserted their Little Green Men into Crimea. Do you remember when that happened? The news stories that were coming out were all over the place, nobody knew what the fuck was going on. The US in Afghanistan and Iraq sets up combat outposts (COPs) in villages and even in buildings on a block with civilian buildings, because that's where the people are. But the hope isn't that enemy fire will miss and hit civilians, because we can't claim that as a PR victory, whereas an ISIS squad who are firing from a building with kids in it could. So what I'm trying to say is that it doesn't matter if you have "good" or "bad" intentions, you're going to be around citizens more the way wars are fought now.

Israelis don't have the inclination to self-flagellate themselves if they kill civilians, because they all get that they're in a existential fight. The Palestinians have been engaged with the Israelis for generations, so they know what the deal is. But they still keep at it knowing they're gonna get smoked (2). So when they try to get the Israelis to kill civilians, they're targeting the US and Europeans, not the Israeli populace. That's only at a bird's eye view, since I'm sure there have been times when the Israelis deserve to get some flack. Anyways, that's what I think.

1. https://zik.ua/en/news/2014/07/11/19_uk ... nky_505245
2. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/14/worl ... bassy.html
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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ROE is something you impose on yourself to control “the application” of weapons. International law governing warfare is surprisingly lenient and very few reporters report on it accurately.

At a very simple level, the target needs to have a military purpose and the collateral damage should be “proportional” to the military advantage gained. A “protected” target loses it protected status when being used for a military purpose. The classic WW2 example was every time a unit got close to or rolled into a town with a church steeple it was the first thing to get taken out by a tank round due to their use as observation or sniper posts. In our current conflict, family or hostages getting killed riding with a “target” convoy does not equal a war crime. Actually, in the case of hostages, the war crime is on the terrorist as international law prohibits hostage taking and if there is a military target with them then it comes down to “proportionality.”

Obviously, what is proportional is a matter that can be debated.

In the current conflict, military and civilian lawyers are pretty much everywhere in the approval process.
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

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POCAHONTAS STRIKES BACK!!!

In a move that her ancestors at Little Big Horn would have appreciated, Senator (and Presidential candidate) Elizabeth Warren called for the impeachment of President Donald Trump on the floor of the United States Senate yesterday.

The Donald has already claimed that he would "love to run against her."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 456355002/

With 21 candidates for the Democratic nomination already declared (and more lurking in the wings!) isn't this the most entertaining Presidential campaign in our lifetimes?
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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