Will Trump be Re-elected?

[dualstow]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_of ... erformance

A 2016 analysis of Trump's business career in The Economist concluded that his performance since 1985 had been "mediocre compared with the stock market and property in New York."[42] A subsequent analysis in The Washington Post similarly noted that Trump's estimated net worth of $100 million in 1978 would have increased to $6 billion by 2016 if he had invested it in a typical retirement fund, and concluded that "Trump is a mix of braggadocio, business failures, and real success."[43]

He should have just bought Vanguard's 2015 Target Retirement Fund!

[stuper1]

I feel very confident in saying that he's not an idiot.

If I were a voting person, which I'm not, the main criterion I would vote on is just this: is this person likely to make the government bigger or smaller? The more areas that government infiltrates, the worse off we are. I know we'll never be back to a small government, but at least hopefully the scope creep can slow down.

Based on that criterion, I would vote for Trump over Biden, Sanders, Warren, or Harris.

[shekels]

Yup, and remember that Trump just fires people. Obama was more likely to have people offed with a drone strike -- judge, jury, and executioner.

Trump expanded drone strikes and the Afghan war and vetoed ending the Yemen war.

You’re really a great example of how a fucking moron could get elected President.

Do you have Hard Data, and not just someones Opinion/Guess on drone strike/ death toll?

Drone strike Casualty Reports have been cancelled.

Also when Trump vetoed ending the Yemen war, why did not CONgress succeed in overturning the Veto?
https://www.justsecurity.org/63855/gett ... n-succeed/

Another question, is how many American Troops are stationed or have Died in Yemen during Yemen's Civil War?

Now the Afghan war has been going on for 18 YEARS... Do you just turn out the lights and go home?

[Kriegsspiel]

Yup, and remember that Trump just fires people. Obama was more likely to have people offed with a drone strike -- judge, jury, and executioner.

Trump expanded drone strikes and the Afghan war and vetoed ending the Yemen war.

You’re really a great example of how a fucking moron could get elected President.

Do you have Hard Data, and not just someones Opinion/Guess on drone strike/ death toll?

Drone strike Casualty Reports have been cancelled.

Also when Trump vetoed ending the Yemen war, why did not CONgress succeed in overturning the Veto?
https://www.justsecurity.org/63855/gett ... n-succeed/

Another question, is how many American Troops are stationed or have Died in Yemen during Yemen's Civil War?

moda has posted this link in an earlier thread:

Trump also expanded the war in Afghanistan...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47480207

"During Mr Obama's eight years in office, 1,878 drone strikes were carried out, according to researchers. Since Mr Trump was elected in 2016, there have been 2,243 drone strikes." It doesn't say where she got those numbers from. Several stories about drone strikes reference a Daily Beast article, which states that it uses numbers provided by CENTCOM and the Bureau Of Investigative Journalism. It looks like you can comb through the press releases on www.centcom.mil and add up how many drone strikes they acknowledge, but I don't feel like doing it.

On the Bureau Of Investigative Journalism's drone strike site, setting the parameters to # of strikes since Jan 2017 gives these results:

6 Pakistan
166 Yemen (these were relatively high at the beginning of Trump's term, but haven't been above 15 a month since April 2017)
98 Somolia
4582 Afghanistan
4852 Total

Their numbers look suspect though. For instance, here is one example of a strike:

An airstrike in Badakhshan killed 16 Taliban fighters, Khaama Press reported - though it was not clear whether US or Afghan forces were responsible.

The Ministry of Defence reportedly said that security forces conducted the strike in the Wardoj district.

While the report says that the security forces conducted the strike, we cannot definitely rule out US involvement as the security forces often call in US air support.

Khaama Press did explicitly give a date for this strike so we have recorded it as the date that it was reported on.

Type of strike: Possible US strike
Location: Wardoj district, Badakhshan province
Reference: Khaama Press

They're very transparent, which I am grateful for because it helps me determine that this isn't something I can trust (or, not without going over each incident in detail).

https://merip.org/2018/02/trumps-drone-surge/

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-ram ... hadow-wars


And military activity in Africa in-general...

https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/ ... ver-africa

Now the Afghan war has been going on for 18 YEARS... Do you just turn out the lights and go home?

That's kind of what we've been doing. When I was in Afghanistan, we briefly conducted operations out of a semi-abandonded outpost. It still had all the generators and huts and stuff like that, but nobody was using it. We were just paying some dudes to watch it. It was nerve-wracking as fuck in there because we had no idea if the guards had let insurgents emplace booby traps or infiltration points or map it out for indirect fire or what have you. When we were done I can't remember if we turned it over to the ANA or if we airlifted all the recoverable shit back to the big FOB. Also, I believe every base/outpost I was on except Bagram has been closed down or turned over to the ANA, which is as close to turning out the lights and leaving as you'd think.

[dualstow]

ANA - Afghan Nat'l Army, I guess.
FOB - ?

[D1984]

ANA - Afghan Nat'l Army, I guess.
FOB - ?

FOB = Forward Operating Base

[dualstow]

Aha, thanks
—-

Headline in WSJ today:

“Slow Growth Hasn’t Hurt Trump in Key Midwest Counties
While local job growth lags behind the nation’s, president’s approval rating has risen since 2017”

Hmm

[Kriegsspiel]

Aha, thanks

Sorry about that. Also, COPS are combat outposts, "terps" are interpreters, RAID is a camera on a pole, and the donkeys are frightened.

Headline in WSJ today:

“Slow Growth Hasn’t Hurt Trump in Key Midwest Counties
While local job growth lags behind the nation’s, president’s approval rating has risen since 2017”

Hmm

*shrug*

[Kriegsspiel]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLM9p8m7BBM

Strong ad work by the Republicans. Have they ever made an ad this good, or relevant?

[dualstow]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLM9p8m7BBM

Strong ad work by the Republicans. Have they ever made an ad this good, or relevant?

There was one like this, although I could have sworn it had lions. At least, it was longer.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_s71-Q2XBZg

[shekels]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLM9p8m7BBM

Strong ad work by the Republicans. Have they ever made an ad this good, or relevant?

At the Time this was a powerful ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRPZQ3UEN_Q

[jhogue]

Everything will be exactly the same, except different.

In 2020, Dems will nominate Elizabeth Warren who will rail against plutocrats in banks, Wall Street, and offshore tax havens; but for taxes on Roth IRAs over $1 million, tighter capital controls, and Obamacare Plus Free Everything. Ironically, the Russians -- who will be found to have had nothing to do with the outcome of the 2016 election -- will be inspired to seriously hack the 2020 election, thereby assuring the return of the chaotic Donald to office for another 4 years. Only in America, baby!

You heard it here first! Happy New Year!!

I predict that we will look back on the Robert Mueller hearings yesterday as a critical milestone in Trump's re-election:

1. Russian Hack 2020 is already well under way.

2. Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer can count to 51 and they now know for certain that impeaching Trump is an exercise in futility, even for the most partisan in their caucus. Worried that Ruth Bader Ginsburg will not last another 5 years on the Supreme Court, influential groups like NARAL will demand that the Dems drop impeachment and focus on electoral victory in November 2020.

This just in:
Elizabeth Warren (a.k.a. Pocahontas) leads Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll for the first time, besting Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story ... 370015001/

[dualstow]

So far, damn accurate, Mr Hogue.
I'm glad the resurfacing of Warren's scandalous paleface photos haven't harmed her in the polls.

[dualstow]

Thanks. I read 'Generation Kill' once upon a time and I've got a glossary somewhere that I compiled while reading. Probably time to pick up another book on Iraq and/or AfPak if anyone has any recommendations.

Btw, should we continue with a separate "Part 2" thread? Each page is always crushing under the weight of the giant, ancient poll above. Kind of ungainly.

Aha, thanks

Sorry about that. Also, COPS are combat outposts, "terps" are interpreters, RAID is a camera on a pole, and the donkeys are frightened.

Headline in WSJ today:

“Slow Growth Hasn’t Hurt Trump in Key Midwest Counties
While local job growth lags behind the nation’s, president’s approval rating has risen since 2017”

Hmm

*shrug*

[Kriegsspiel]

You picked a good one in Generation Kill.

The last few books I read related to Iraq/Afghanistan were:

The Accidental Guerrilla by Kilcullen
Wired For War by Singer
Brave New War by John Robb
My Jihad by Collins
Dirty Wars by Scahill
On The Hunt in Baghdad by Totten
Ghost Wars by Coll
America’s Secret War by Friedman
Soldiers of God: With The Mujahidin In Afghanistan by Kaplan
My Share of the Task by Gen. Stanley McChrystal
Where Men Win Glory by Krakauer
How to Break a Terrorist by Matthew Alexander
Ambush Alley: The Most Extraordinary Battle of the Iraq War by Pritchard
Horse Soldiers by Stanton (the movie 12 Strong was based on this book)

There's probably a couple in there that might interest you. I'll PM you another one.

[dualstow]

Excellent, thank you!

[Cortopassi]

Sometimes he's funny, unintentionally I assume:

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over...

If he spends the next 12 months taking troops out of all the places we shouldn't be in anymore, he just may have my vote.

[doodle]

Sometimes he's funny, unintentionally I assume:

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over...

If he spends the next 12 months taking troops out of all the places we shouldn't be in anymore, he just may have my vote.

unintentionally funny....or mentally unhinged? Does anyone really think his demeanor and personality reflect well on our country? He is a troll who goads, insults and demeans anyone who dare questions his "great and unmatched wisdom". In another time and place you are looking at Caligula.

[stuper1]

Does anyone really think his demeanor and personality reflect well on our country?

Quoted from a discussion of Elizabeth Warren on another forum (unz.com):

"Trump’s personality is hard for a lot of people to stomach, but it’s recognized that it’s not an act – we see Trump unvarnished. People don’t like those who pretend to be something other than what they are, particularly in such a blatant example of a blond haired blue eyed woman claiming Cherokee ancestry and that her presence on Harvard’s faculty represents some kind of triumph for the continent’s native peoples."

So, yes, compared to what else is on offer, I personally think that Trump's demeanor reflects well on our country. He's comfortable in his own skin (as creepy and scaly as that might be). He doesn't offer up a boat load of mealy-mouthed platitudes like just about every other politician. I think that reflects just fine on our country. Sure, if we had a Boy/Girl Scout with good policies as an alternative, then please vote for him/her. But all these big government liberals offered up by the Democrats aren't going to be any better for the country than Trump is. If the Libertarians could offer somebody with a reasonable immigration policy, then vote for that person.

[doodle]

So, yes, compared to what else is on offer, I personally think that Trump's demeanor reflects well on our country. He's comfortable in his own skin (as creepy and scaly as that might be).

I'm not following this argument... An authentic asshole, who doesn't try to filter his public behavior or reactions like an adult but instead flys off the handle with sweaty red faced tantrums at every offense, who hurls playground insults and publically bullies any and all opponents, is someone who reflects well on our country? A president who publically questions who is a bigger enemy of the United States, a communist adversary or the President of the Fed? A man who takes the word of Russia over his own intelligence community? The tone and demeanor of Donald Trump is a stain on the executive branch. I am no fan of race baiting identity politics in the Democratic party or even many of their policies but Trump is an awful leader and a corrupt narrcistic megalomaniac. He has all the qualities of a banana republic dictator. I cannot understand how this is not painfully obvious.

[stuper1]

A president who publically questions who is a bigger enemy of the United States, a communist adversary or the President of the Fed? A man who takes the word of Russia over his own intelligence community?

I suspect he has shown excellent judgment in both of those examples you gave above.

Is the communist adversary Russia or some other country? Either way, it doesn't matter, I suspect the President of the Fed is a bigger enemy to our wellbeing.

Our own intelligence community has already shown itself many times to be Trump's enemy. I would trust them little if I were him.

As for the rest of it, like I said, if some Boy/Girl Scout with an excellent demeanor and policies arises, then by all means vote for that person. As it is, we don't have much to pick from. Big government is not the answer to our ills.

[flyingpylon]

So, yes, compared to what else is on offer, I personally think that Trump's demeanor reflects well on our country. He's comfortable in his own skin (as creepy and scaly as that might be).

I'm not following this argument... An authentic asshole, who doesn't try to filter his public behavior or reactions like an adult but instead flys off the handle with sweaty red faced tantrums at every offense, who hurls playground insults and publically bullies any and all opponents, is someone who reflects well on our country? A president who publically questions who is a bigger enemy of the United States, a communist adversary or the President of the Fed? A man who takes the word of Russia over his own intelligence community? The tone and demeanor of Donald Trump is a stain on the executive branch. I am no fan of race baiting identity politics in the Democratic party or even many of their policies but Trump is an awful leader and a corrupt narrcistic megalomaniac. He has all the qualities of a banana republic dictator. I cannot understand how this is not painfully obvious.

Different people want different things from their “leaders”. I have to put leaders in quotes because given their performance, I often question why we use that term to describe politicians.

Anyway, for me it’s about style vs substance. I prefer and expect officials at every level to put their constituents first and fight for them when it’s required. Sometimes the right people for that job come with flaws that have to be tolerated or overlooked. I am much more willing to put up with Trump’s antics than to allow yet another phony “kinder, gentler” politician to give us “all the feels” while secretly selling the country out in a multitude of ways.

Many people voted for Trump in order to throw a bomb into the swamp and see what happens. Although a thorough draining is unrealistic, you have to start somewhere and it’s worth a shot. Maybe it’ll all go to hell in a hand basket, who knows. But it’s clear that many of the most dire predictions about Trump simply have not come true.

Some people will never get over the style issues, and that’s fine. But when you cannot understand how things are not painfully obvious to others, you have to consider that they may be using different criteria by which to judge.

[doodle]

So, yes, compared to what else is on offer, I personally think that Trump's demeanor reflects well on our country. He's comfortable in his own skin (as creepy and scaly as that might be).

I'm not following this argument... An authentic asshole, who doesn't try to filter his public behavior or reactions like an adult but instead flys off the handle with sweaty red faced tantrums at every offense, who hurls playground insults and publically bullies any and all opponents, is someone who reflects well on our country? A president who publically questions who is a bigger enemy of the United States, a communist adversary or the President of the Fed? A man who takes the word of Russia over his own intelligence community? The tone and demeanor of Donald Trump is a stain on the executive branch. I am no fan of race baiting identity politics in the Democratic party or even many of their policies but Trump is an awful leader and a corrupt narrcistic megalomaniac. He has all the qualities of a banana republic dictator. I cannot understand how this is not painfully obvious.

Different people want different things from their “leaders”. I have to put leaders in quotes because given their performance, I often question why we use that term to describe politicians.

Anyway, for me it’s about style vs substance. I prefer and expect officials at every level to put their constituents first and fight for them when it’s required. Sometimes the right people for that job come with flaws that have to be tolerated or overlooked. I am much more willing to put up with Trump’s antics than to allow yet another phony “kinder, gentler” politician to give us “all the feels” while secretly selling the country out in a multitude of ways.

Many people voted for Trump in order to throw a bomb into the swamp and see what happens. Although a thorough draining is unrealistic, you have to start somewhere and it’s worth a shot. Maybe it’ll all go to hell in a hand basket, who knows. But it’s clear that many of the most dire predictions about Trump simply have not come true.

Some people will never get over the style issues, and that’s fine. But when you cannot understand how things are not painfully obvious to others, you have to consider that they may be using different criteria by which to judge.

Besides setting policy the president is also the figurehead of the nation and as such is supposed to at least embody certain ideals or characteristics that constitute decency, morality, bravery. Trump is no leader to admire. Besides obstruction of justice...(trying to fire Robert Mueller) and collusion with foreign governments to influence elections as well as having his mental stability and capacity routinely questioned by those who have worked in proximity to him... he is a giant manbaby who throws tantrums when he doesn't get his way. He is a whiner who screams about how unfair everything is, yet fails to recognize that the silver spoon he was born with wasn't fair either. This is the type of leader who is going to make America great again? A pouty, overly sensitive, whiny manchild? The prostitutes and hush money, the shady business dealings. Speaking of substance, look up his history with Deutsche Bank...shocking. not exactly the operations of a normal functioning business....more like weird shady bilking of investors and manipulation of a corrupt banking entity. I have worked with contractors and construction workers who years ago did construction for Trump and had nothing but negative things to say about him. How he wouldn't pay them for work they did. How he would come in after work was done and offer them half of what he had agreed to and then tie them up with legal threats. How is that substance? That's smoke and mirrors. The guy is a scumbag, not a leader, not a business icon. I'm not saying that politicians as a whole aren't corrupt and shady, although there are many decent ones, I'm saying that Trump embodies all the greed, corruption, narcism, and selfishness that I think will eventually crush our republic. While Bush or Obama might not be icons themselves I at least had respect for them as humans, whereas I wouldn't want to spend five minutes in a room together with Trump. Now, I do agree with many of his policies however the way in which he is attempting to implement and deliver them is tearing our nation apart. I'm no fan of illegal imigration for example but to package that issue as one which demonizes immigrants as dangerous rapists sets a tone that then leads to a certain paranoia and rage among people that can end in tragedy. He ratchets up the fear and anger because he himself is not a gounded well adjusted human. He has all the same personality characteristics of a Saddam Hussein or Fidel Castro except he is fortunately limited by the foresight of our founding fathers. You don't think he wouldnt carry through on his hintings to kill the whistle blower if his ability to do such weren't limited? Listen to the man he hides nothing, "in my great and unmatched wisdom"...this is exactly the leader that our founding fathers worried would one day come along and why they spent so much time drafting a constitution to protect us against them.

[doodle]

secretly selling the country out in a multitude of ways.

Please elaborate. In what ways? There are forces at play here that go beyond executive branch policy. I would argue that the forces of free market capitalism and technology account for most of the struggles of the middle and lower classes. The wealthy in our country have never done better than over the last 30 years.

[WiseOne]

So, yes, compared to what else is on offer, I personally think that Trump's demeanor reflects well on our country. He's comfortable in his own skin (as creepy and scaly as that might be).

I'm not following this argument... An authentic asshole, who doesn't try to filter his public behavior or reactions like an adult but instead flys off the handle with sweaty red faced tantrums at every offense, who hurls playground insults and publically bullies any and all opponents...

True. But is it sufficient basis for deciding on your vote?

Yes, just about every public communication from Trump makes me wince and squirm, and his attacks on individuals are distasteful to put it mildly. I But I think his instincts about public policy, reptilian as they are, are almost always spot on. It's how he got elected in the first place: he put his finger on topics that no one else was able to see, but that resonated deeply with voters. There is also the behind the scenes cleaning up of regulations that isn't getting much press because it's such mundane stuff, but I suspect that the positive impact on the economy has been sizeable.

If you remember George H.W. Bush's presidency, it was remarkable that the man was never able to open his mouth and sound like an intelligent human being. Every speech or public appearance was embarrassing. But that itself should not have been the reason for voting him out of office - at least I hope it wasn't.

In contrast, the proposals put forward by the very urbane, politically correct and well-behaved Democratic candidates would mostly be disasters if implemented as described. And they are all stuck in their imaginary world, with absolutely no appreciation for what's happening in real life.

Flyingpylon and I are not the only ones focusing on substance over style. You won't hear much about it because such voices are drowned out by the single-minded drumbeat in the press, and we know it's risky to reveal our true opinion. I predict that 2020 will be a repeat of 2016: the polls will predict a Democratic landslide, and once again they'll be spectacularly wrong. Unless of course a candidate emerges with Trump's instinct for policy but minus the personal issues. Unfortunately I doubt such a thing exists. Good boy/girl scouts just don't generally run for office.