Will Trump be Re-elected?

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Will Trump be Re-elected?

Trump is more effective than people are willing to admit [ala Scott Adams] and will be re-elected.
14
32%
Hillary will run again in 2020, and thus Trump will beat her again.
2
5%
Trump will cause the GOP to lose one or both houses of congress in the mid-term elections.
4
9%
The Dems in congress will be so insufferable, Trumps wins by a small margin despite them.
10
23%
Trump will choose not to run for re-election, since he never really wanted the job anyway.
7
16%
Trump is a disaster and will lose by a landslide.
2
5%
Trump will not only lose, but will lose to a candidate so far to the left that people will wish he'd stayed.
3
7%
Other, please elaborate.
2
5%
 
Total votes: 44
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:04 am

It's sad (for me) the way she's handled herself. I read The Two Income Trap a couple years ago, and I thought it made sense. The way I read it, people still had agency, and responsibility for their actions. They were doing things that made their own lives harder, shadowy "others" weren't doing it to them. I think she's rolled with the times and taken Demagogue Road.
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jhogue
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by jhogue » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:38 am

Agreed.
I really enjoyed it when she shredded the CEO of TBTF Wells Fargo at a live-broadcast exchange in front of a Senate Banking Committee meeting for somehow being totally "unaware" that the bank's incentive structure was encouraging its employees to create fictitious accounts unbeknownst to its customers.

He announced his retirement a few days later.

Still, all her talk about a "wealth tax" amounts to yet another legislator's attempt to impose double taxation on us all.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:41 pm

The Mueller report will be when the rubber hits the road. That's when we will see if Trump's iron grip on the support of roughly a third of the population may weaken. If it does, even slightly, one can expect the GOP congress and Senate critters to run for the tall grass. It's worth noting that the electoral map in 2020 does not favor the GOP in the Senate as it did last year. Assuming Trump survives to stand for re-election in 2020, I think his odds will be poor. The Democrats are united in their hatred as never before in my lifetime, and it seems likely Trump will face opposition from the more sane wing of the GOP. History suggests it is extremely unlikely they will succeed in denying him renomination, but he will be weakened. No sitting president in modern political history was reelected if they faced a serious challenge from within their own party. And there is the very real possibility that a center right independent candidate will emerge. I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd say the 2020 election is the Democrat's to lose.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:39 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:41 pm
The Democrats are united in their hatred as never before in my lifetime
Agreed. Even "Bush Derangement Syndrome" was never a thing, and they didn't like him either. The sustained level of frothing rage is bonkers.
it seems likely Trump will face opposition from the more sane wing of the GOP.

there is the very real possibility that a center right independent candidate will emerge.
Who are the sane wing? Do you mean personality-wise, or policy-wise? As far as I can tell he has mostly mainstream or centrist/bipartisan positions:
  • His main thing is curbing illegal immigration and securing the US Mexico border, and that's had bipartisan support for decades.
  • Anti-globalism and trade protections were Democrat positions a few decades ago too (and still are, with literally Socialist Bernie Sanders).
  • Go back more than a few decades and being against bad wars was a Democrat position too.
  • He's said he's for campaign finance reform, and said PACs are a scam, and he's in favor of lobbyist restrictions for people leaving government jobs.
  • He's for freedom of choice (schools).
  • He supports the drug war, which is a mainstream position on both sides.
  • He has said pollution and clean water are problems worth fixing.
  • His support for/use of eminent domain is bipartisan. Same with torture.
  • LGBTQWTF issues I suspect he's pretty mainstream Republican? Not really sure.
  • Support of the PATRIOT Act and mass surveillance is bipartisan.
  • Travel restrictions on people from Muslim countries has been bipartisan.

    Democrats hate...
    ... that he "rejects the scientific consensus on climate change," but none of them do shit about it either so nobody's really on the moral high ground anyways; everybody wants to either maintain or increase their standard of living and run it on renewable energy, which seems ludicrous at this point.

    Republicans don't seem to care about...
    ... 6 weeks guaranteed paid maternity leave. What are we, Europe?
    History suggests it is extremely unlikely they will succeed in denying him renomination, but he will be weakened. No sitting president in modern political history was reelected if they faced a serious challenge from within their own party.
    I am not a gambling man, but if I were, I'd say the 2020 election is the Democrat's to lose.
    Why would they? Those political people spank it to poll numbers, and he currently has a 44% approval rating according to Gallup. I don't know if that's considered good or bad, but looking at W's, he was below that for the last few years of his presidency. His SOTU speech seemed well received. In the poll I said he'd either get re-elected because he's better than people give him credit for, or he'll be defeated by an insane Leftist (paraphrasing). Could be interesting to see what happens.
Only a few prefer liberty-- the majority seek nothing more than fair masters.
- Gaius Sallustius Crispus
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