Will Trump be Re-elected?

pugchief · Post by **pugchief** » Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:37 am

I know it's early, but after the Tragicomedy thread, thought it would be interesting to see the current impressions.
Vote for up to 3 options, but what you think will happen, not what you want to happen. Comments encouraged.

Post by **Xan** » Fri Aug 04, 2017 11:05 am

One interesting option I've considered is if Trump loses the Republican nomination and runs as an independent against both a Republican and a Democrat. That could be really interesting.

jhogue · Post by **jhogue** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:15 am

Everything will be exactly the same, except different.

In 2020, Dems will nominate Elizabeth Warren who will rail against plutocrats in banks, Wall Street, and offshore tax havens; but for taxes on Roth IRAs over $1 million, tighter capital controls, and Obamacare Plus Free Everything. Ironically, the Russians -- who will be found to have had nothing to do with the outcome of the 2016 election -- will be inspired to seriously hack the 2020 election, thereby assuring the return of the chaotic Donald to office for another 4 years. Only in America, baby!

pugchief · Post by **pugchief** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:59 am

This morning's news included the jobs report which again exceeded expectations and the 1 million mark. The stock market is way up since his election as well. As Bill Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid".

In spite of all the chaos, will people throw the guy out if the above continues?

moda0306 · Post by **moda0306** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 9:10 am

pugchief wrote:This morning's news included the jobs report which again exceeded expectations and the 1 million mark. The stock market is way up since his election as well. As Bill Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid".

In spite of all the chaos, will people throw the guy out if the above continues?

Obama's stock market and unemployment advances were stellar. For this reason I thought Hillary had it in the bag despite being a terrible candidate.

I'm not so sure things like that matter in the same way they used to for some reason.

Maybe not. Maybe folks will hop back on the economy train.

Pointedstick · Post by **Pointedstick** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 9:32 am

The stock market only affects the small minority of people like us. The unemployment rate is indeed getting better, but masks low labor force participation rate (especially for males), near-zero wage growth, an unfavorable distribution of full-time jobs vs part-time jobs, and most of the new jobs being in low-paying dead-end fields like retail and hospitality. The skyrocketing costs of college, healthcare, and housing in nice places play into this too, since they are far outstripping many people's ability to pay for them.

It's not "the economy" but rather how people feel about their prospects. Elites like us feel good and have for a long time. Many others don't feel optimistic about the future and haven't for some time.

moda0306 · Post by **moda0306** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 9:49 am

moda0306 wrote:
pugchief wrote:This morning's news included the jobs report which again exceeded expectations and the 1 million mark. The stock market is way up since his election as well. As Bill Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid".

In spite of all the chaos, will people throw the guy out if the above continues?
Obama's stock market and unemployment advances were stellar. For this reason I thought Hillary had it in the bag despite being a terrible candidate.

I'm not so sure things like that matter in the same way they used to for some reason.

Maybe not. Maybe folks will hop back on the economy train.

To be clear, I'm not making the argument that Presidents have very much control of the "business cycle," nor do I value much any more the traditional indicators of "economic success." GDP can go f'k itself.

Employment is extremely important when you are on the edge of a financial cliff, but if we truly are building up WEALTH rather than just economic activity, it should become less and less important over time, which is obviously not the case, and very few people are willing to talk about it. The publicly traded stock market is one sector of wealth but its direct affect on the wealth and income of the average American is minuscule.

If I were "king for a day," I'd make one of the measures of prosperity the average net worth per quintile of the country, including non-financial assets such as house, land, etc, and by asset type (real estate, farm land, "stock market," liquid savings, etc). Also would be a full income statement by quintile. The stock market, employment rates, home-ownership rates... these are just pieces of the picture that politicians try to talk about one at a time as it suits their narrative. A true stuard of U.S. prosperity would look at the full economic picture.

The lefty eco-nazi in me would probably also have some key ecological indicators worked into the mix... so one can't "add" to wealth by "developing" a forest into a f'king parking lot, but I'll start with simple stuff like comprehensive financial statements rather than cherry-picked crap that people can selectively grab or ignore as it serves their political goals.

Man I'm a wind bag...

moda0306 · Post by **moda0306** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 9:58 am

Pointedstick wrote:The stock market only affects the small minority of people like us. The unemployment rate is indeed getting better, but masks low labor force participation rate (especially for males), near-zero wage growth, an unfavorable distribution of full-time jobs vs part-time jobs, and most of the new jobs being in low-paying dead-end fields like retail and hospitality. The skyrocketing costs of college, healthcare, and housing in nice places play into this too, since they are far outstripping many people's ability to pay for them.

It's not "the economy" but rather how people feel about their prospects. Elites like us feel good and have for a long time. Many others don't feel optimistic about the future and haven't for some time.

Exactly... the stock market is a complete joke to focus on as a direct indicator. Sure, it can tell us some things about what the market THINKS future large company profits will be in the future, but to equate that to the direct situation middle/lower class Americans are in is a joke.

Labor market numbers are extremely important, but that should tell us something... wasn't capitalism and all this civilization supposed to create WEALTH? And what is wealth if not options to not f'king work for a few months without your entire life falling apart? Yes, any ONE American can make this happen for themselves... but if you look at the system as a whole, it is not designed in a manner that will let any critical mass of Americans or any other society to slow down without getting shot off the back of the treadmill.

But now we can't even talk about it, because if too many of us start looking around and asking questions, that alone will blow the house of cards down. We just have to keep ignoring it, perpetuate the petro dollar, put our kids through school, invest in the stock market, work our job, and maybe expand unemployment benefits a bit to keep the proletariat from gumming up the treadmill too much.

:/

I Shrugged · Post by **I Shrugged** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:48 pm

Trump won't be on the ballot in November 2020.

Kriegsspiel · Post by **Kriegsspiel** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:29 pm

I Shrugged wrote:Trump won't be on the ballot in November 2020.

Now THAT is an assassination threat if I've ever heard one so bureaucratically stated.

Desert · Post by **Desert** » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:37 pm

I Shrugged wrote:Trump won't be on the ballot in November 2020.

What about Pence?

pugchief · Post by **pugchief** » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:28 am

moda0306 wrote:
moda0306 wrote:
pugchief wrote:This morning's news included the jobs report which again exceeded expectations and the 1 million mark. The stock market is way up since his election as well. As Bill Clinton said, "It's the economy, stupid".

In spite of all the chaos, will people throw the guy out if the above continues?
Obama's stock market and unemployment advances were stellar. For this reason I thought Hillary had it in the bag despite being a terrible candidate.

I'm not so sure things like that matter in the same way they used to for some reason.

Maybe not. Maybe folks will hop back on the economy train.
To be clear, I'm not making the argument that Presidents have very much control of the "business cycle," nor do I value much any more the traditional indicators of "economic success." GDP can go f'k itself. Employment is extremely important when you are on the edge of a financial cliff, but if we truly are building up WEALTH rather than just economic activity, it should become less and less important over time, which is obviously not the case, and very few people are willing to talk about it. The publicly traded stock market is one sector of wealth but its direct affect on the wealth and income of the average American is minuscule.

If I were "king for a day," I'd make one of the measures of prosperity the average net worth per quintile of the country, including non-financial assets such as house, land, etc, and by asset type (real estate, farm land, "stock market," liquid savings, etc). Also would be a full income statement by quintile. The stock market, employment rates, home-ownership rates... these are just pieces of the picture that politicians try to talk about one at a time as it suits their narrative. A true stuard of U.S. prosperity would look at the full economic picture.

The lefty eco-nazi in me would probably also have some key ecological indicators worked into the mix... so one can't "add" to wealth by "developing" a forest into a f'king parking lot, but I'll start with simple stuff like comprehensive financial statements rather than cherry-picked crap that people can selectively grab or ignore as it serves their political goals.

Man I'm a wind bag...

Pointedstick wrote:The stock market only affects the small minority of people like us. The unemployment rate is indeed getting better, but masks low labor force participation rate (especially for males), near-zero wage growth, an unfavorable distribution of full-time jobs vs part-time jobs, and most of the new jobs being in low-paying dead-end fields like retail and hospitality.
It's not "the economy" but rather how people feel about their prospects.

In broad terms, the bottom quintile is on welfare, so as long the checks keep coming, this is irrelevant to them. The fourth quintile measures their economic success by whether or not they are employed and can put food on the table. Yes, the participation rate is hidden, but any gains are better than none. The third and second quintile have the vast majority of their wealth in 2 places: their homes and their 401(k)s. So when home values are increasing and the market is going up, paper wealth is felt. Maybe Alpo won't be on the menu in retirement after all! And of course the top quint is happy because, as stated earlier, corporate health must be good if the market is going up. If people think things have improved, credit goes to POTUS, whether he deserves it or not.

Pointedstick wrote:Elites like us feel good and have for a long time..

I am an elite? Who knew? Better tell Hillary and the Koch Bros; they will be unhappy to hear they have competition for influence!