Self Driving Cars Article

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:25 am

Around the Chicago area it is called a "Gaper's Delay"
User avatar
l82start
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 9:51 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by l82start » Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:44 am

you are right the problem wont go away until there are either a majority of driver-less cars or the driver-less cars organize themselves to be moving together in a dedicated lane/lanes.. but the ability to see stop and go traffic developing and switch the auto driver on, and say "oh well i am in for a slow stretch, i will kick back and let the car deal with it", would at least end the frustration...

i really have no idea how well software could handle all the unexpected and tough to recognize hazards on roads, pot holes mattresses, people on the shoulder to close to traffic etc. it all seems a bit sci-fi to me, but there does seem to be growing confidence by the people involved that it can be done...
-Government 2020+ - a BANANA REPUBLIC - if you can keep it

-Belief is the death of intelligence. As soon as one believes a doctrine of any sort, or assumes certitude, one stops thinking about that aspect of existence
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by dualstow » Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:28 pm

l82start wrote:i really have no idea how well software could handle all the unexpected and tough to recognize hazards on roads, pot holes mattresses, people on the shoulder to close to traffic etc. it all seems a bit sci-fi to me, but there does seem to be growing confidence by the people involved that it can be done...
A lot of that has already been done and is sci-non-fi. There are "campuses" where these cars practice with mannequins and things suddenly thrown in their path. The latest place I read about it was Popular Science (print version).
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jul 31, 2017 1:43 pm

I am an EE, and I always make sure I occasionally sit back and marvel at things like Ethernet, and how all the data is being passed around to literally billions of locations all the time and it all makes it there and gets there fast.

Also, the computer you're working on likely has multiple cores, each running billions of operations a second.

Wasn't that long ago video conferencing was state of the art, requiring very expensive dedicated equipment. You can do better now with even a low end phone.

Facial recognition, voice recognition -- I always wanted Adama's computer on Battlestar Galactica. Now I have it in my pocket and it works nearly 100% correctly.To see the phone/Google listen to a sentence, see it completely wrong and then it figures out the context and fixes in in 1/4 second -- amazing.

It is hard to imagine all this with a puny human brain, but figuring a mattress on the side of the road or a pot hole is child's play to these processors.
User avatar
Benko
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1900
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:40 am

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Benko » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:29 pm

Simple question: when self driving cars are approved is there anyone reading this who would not let their child/mother ride in one the next day? Assuming you have a child or like your mother.

I don't download software upgrades immediately, and I personally would not.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by dualstow » Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:33 pm

You mean mixed in with mortal drivers, or with all cars on the road self-driving?
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Benko
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1900
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:40 am

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Benko » Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:27 pm

Desert wrote: Oh, definitely. I'd wait for the bugzilla list to be cut in half before climbing in one of these things. Unfortunately, I suppose we'll be sharing the road with early adopters... might not be much worse than some of the people out there driving today though.
The point is that we know (mostly) what kinds of silly things humans do when driving and have learned to compensate to avoid them. No one has any idea what kinds of things these cars will do when they act up.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by dualstow » Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:33 pm

Compensate?

A friend of the family was crippled by a drunk driver who swerved across the middle. My wife and I were rear-ended (but not hurt) by a girl who was using her Blackberry. I was knocked down by a dude in a van as I walked across an intersection. He looked left and right, but apparently forgot straight ahead.

I'll take my chances with a robotic sensor that has nothing else on its mind.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Benko
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1900
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:40 am

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Benko » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:40 pm

dualstow,

Fair enough. You make a good point about problems with human drivers.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:13 am

Thanks.
And I agree that there are many, many kinks to be worked out before the general public will feel safe, or even be safe, with self-driving cars. We probably expect something like Windows ME and blue screens of death, but I'm hoping we get something closer to mission critical quality, like airplanes must have.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:36 am

I wonder what will happen to those who like driving motorcycles? I don't imagine those will ever willingly become self driving or even possible in that form factor.

In my work experience, I have done consumer, military, medical and automotive tech, and it seems to me the longest development and test cycles are generally automotive ones.

I would have high confidence anything put out in cars is pretty well tested. Sure, you will run into corner cases, which will hopefully not be deadly.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 01, 2017 11:25 am

Cortopassi wrote:I wonder what will happen to those who like driving motorcycles?
That's a good question. We've got to make room for bikes and pedestrians, too. Not sure where motorcycles will fit in.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:34 am

I'm a bit disappointing that no one has referenced Rush's Red Barchetta.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:44 pm

Image
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:11 am

Pointedstick wrote:Rarely are people so excited to predict massive disruption from a technology that hasn't even reached the market yet--let alone become safe, cost-effective, and widely available. All of that may indeed happen--but I feel like the author thinks he's living 15 years in the future.

This obsession with self-driving cars is so uniquely American: we love and are totally dependent on our automobiles, but over time have come to hate their obvious drawbacks. Self-driving cars promise to alleviate one of the biggies: the annoyance of actually operating them! But in the process they promise to exacerbate many of the others: their cost, maintenance schedule, and the degree to which they destroy the fabric of a people-centric environment by pushing everything ever farther apart from everything else. And possibly their safety as well. People may be lousy drivers, but I trust that everyone here has fairly extensive experience with software, right? Bugs, bugs, bugs. Features that don't work. Incompatibilities. Upgrade nightmares. It's really hard for me to see how software-izing motor vehicles will improve the situation.
You have too much faith in people's ability to drive safely.

Always remember Gilb's Laws of Unreliability, starting with:

"1) Computers are unreliable, but humans are even more unreliable.
Corollary: At the source of every error which is blamed on the computer you will find at least two human errors, including the error of blaming it on
the computer. "

http://www.anvari.org/fortune/Laws/2247 ... iable.html
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14234
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:22 am

It'll be better in some ways and worse in others, just like everything else.

Kriegsspiel, that image is hilarious!
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:23 am

Mountaineer wrote:Ahhh, just wait until you retire and don't have to endure the stress of having to be somewhere not of your choosing. Driving can be fun when you do not have to engage the heathens in rush hour traffic. ;) A slow mountainous two lane back country drive is beautiful - think Going to the Sun road in Glacier NP or SR 20 through the North Cascades without the summertime tourist traffic. I take back roads whenever I can, which is most every day whether going to the grocery store, church, the gas station, to a local eatery, or to visit friends. Keys to a fun drive, in my opinion, are being able to take your time, a great friend or spouse for a front seat companion, and a pleasurable vehicle that has personality. I've had many vehicles in my life ... the ones with no personality were boring mushy rides even when driving only a couple miles. ;D
I've been on the "Million Dollar Highway" in Colorado.

Yes, the scenery is beautiful, but my take on the name is that it is the amount I would pay not to ever have to drive on it again. :(
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:26 am

Xan wrote:There's a place near here where a freeway begins at a stoplight, followed by a slight bend and a bit of a hill. Being first at that stoplight makes for a pretty glorious time when the light turns green.

Banking along a big ramp at sunset with the top down is always good. Nice views.

Downshifting to pass somebody is fun.

Much of this relies on a convertible V8 with a manual transmission...
I love it when I get to use the 295 HP of my 2008 Acura TL-S to get up to the 75 mph speed limit on I-30.

But I'm going to buy a self-driving car as soon as it is available.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:30 am

Cortopassi wrote:
l82start wrote: the stop and surge traffic jam is the one spot i would like a self driving car, it is a particularly annoying type of traffic, busy/fast/slow /crazy i don't mind.... but stop and go takes extra focus on driving and builds frustration quickly, especially when the cause is everyone rubbernecking some guy fixing a flat well out of traffic making the entire jam a pointless exercise in dumb human behavior...
That's my main reason as well.

The other one I would find useful is for my aging parents. They are 30 miles away, my dad doesn't drive anymore and my mom doesn't like expressways or driving at night. Given that we are busy with 2 kids, that severely limits the times we get together. There are no convenient trains or non-car routes between us either.

So if they could hop into a self driving car that they either have, or comes up to their driveway automatically, get to our house, visit and then do the same in return, that would be a big plus in the family seeing each other more often.

Considering this is the norm now, families generally not living next to each other, and probably lots across city and suburbs and farther, as people get older, I know I'd love to have this convenience.
We are in our late 60's and although we are still in good shape for the most part, we would not be able to remain in our rural home if we were unable to drive.

A self-driving car would allow us to stay here.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:30 am

MangoMan wrote:
Cortopassi wrote:
l82start wrote: the stop and surge traffic jam is the one spot i would like a self driving car, it is a particularly annoying type of traffic, busy/fast/slow /crazy i don't mind.... but stop and go takes extra focus on driving and builds frustration quickly, especially when the cause is everyone rubbernecking some guy fixing a flat well out of traffic making the entire jam a pointless exercise in dumb human behavior...
That's my main reason as well.

The other one I would find useful is for my aging parents. They are 30 miles away, my dad doesn't drive anymore and my mom doesn't like expressways or driving at night. Given that we are busy with 2 kids, that severely limits the times we get together. There are no convenient trains or non-car routes between us either.

So if they could hop into a self driving car that they either have, or comes up to their driveway automatically, get to our house, visit and then do the same in return, that would be a big plus in the family seeing each other more often.

Considering this is the norm now, families generally not living next to each other, and probably lots across city and suburbs and farther, as people get older, I know I'd love to have this convenience.
Uber them to your house. You pay if they can't/won't.
There is no Uber where we live.
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:31 am

l82start wrote:you are right the problem wont go away until there are either a majority of driver-less cars or the driver-less cars organize themselves to be moving together in a dedicated lane/lanes.. but the ability to see stop and go traffic developing and switch the auto driver on, and say "oh well i am in for a slow stretch, i will kick back and let the car deal with it", would at least end the frustration...

i really have no idea how well software could handle all the unexpected and tough to recognize hazards on roads, pot holes mattresses, people on the shoulder to close to traffic etc. it all seems a bit sci-fi to me, but there does seem to be growing confidence by the people involved that it can be done...
I have no trouble believing that software could handle those issues better than people.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:46 am

There are a lot of limitations, but if you've got 60k+ to spend on a car, there is another self driving offering from Cadillac.

http://www.cadillac.com/world-of-cadill ... ruise.html

I always turn on cruise on long highway drives. I love being able to stretch my legs. Being able to minimally do the same with my hands would be great.

We will be here way sooner than most people think.

I totally understand the sense of freedom, or wanting to gun it from a stop, etc. But I personally have no issues giving those perks up to have a car take me somewhere without my driving.
User avatar
Benko
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1900
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:40 am

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Benko » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:00 am

Uber has self driving cars in my city today (I think, I've never been in an uber).

How many of you would get in one today?
Libertarian666
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 5994
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:03 am

Cortopassi wrote:There are a lot of limitations, but if you've got 60k+ to spend on a car, there is another self driving offering from Cadillac.

http://www.cadillac.com/world-of-cadill ... ruise.html

I always turn on cruise on long highway drives. I love being able to stretch my legs. Being able to minimally do the same with my hands would be great.

We will be here way sooner than most people think.

I totally understand the sense of freedom, or wanting to gun it from a stop, etc. But I personally have no issues giving those perks up to have a car take me somewhere without my driving.
Nah, even if it weren't a Cadillac ( :P ), that doesn't do the job.

I want a car that will drive itself under all conditions.

If that isn't available when I need to buy car again (probably not within 5 years), I'll settle for lane maintenance and automatic braking so I can't run off the road or into an unseen object ahead.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Self Driving Cars Article

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:51 am

What I really want to be able to do in my lifetime is get somewhere in something like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Rfe4BFiVNA
Post Reply