Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by barrett » Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:00 pm

dualstow wrote: I'm really rooting for Detroit.
I am as well but it seems from the link that PS posted that they are moving back to an agrarian society. I'd much rather see that land being cultivated than just covered over with pavement, but is this really a good thing in the grand scheme of things?
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 24, 2017 12:03 pm

A valid point, B, but it's temporary. No point in building too fast or prematurely.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:28 pm

I think reverting to a local agrarian existence is actually ideal for most of Detroit's sprawling area. Living locally means you can't get overextended with outside money, credit, or goods very easily. It's a healthier, more resilient life. Frankly a huge amount of American suburbia is probably headed in that direction over the next 40 years. Prepare now by switching your gas appliances to electric, putting a central composting toilet in your basement, solar panels on your roof, a battery bank in your garage, and a wood stove with a cooktop in your living room.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 24, 2017 2:33 pm

In Detropia on netflix, they talked about trying to consolidate the city, actually moving people out of long-held homes, to the center I assume. This was to help keep bus routes practical, etc.
I have no idea if they actually did it.
From PS's image link, looks like they've been busy with other endeavors. :)
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by barrett » Sun May 20, 2018 10:32 am

Simonjester wrote: i have a nervous suspicion.. its based on my experience with the housing bubble bursting and some things i have read about and seen happening recently in retail.. Before the housing bubble burst i was working in an industry directly connected to housing, preceding the burst my employers started to cut staff and demand fewer workers get more work done with less hours.. my current employers in retail are now doing the exact same thing.. during the housing bubble burst, the retail property market didn't take as big a hit or need the bailouts.. they still have bundled mortgages.. they now compete with amazon for market share.. there are store closings happening in big anchor stores like sears and macys... the rent rates for small retailers at malls are tied to anchor stores being there.. there is potentially far more retail property available at far to expensive rent rates than is necessary in a world where on-line shopping is shrinking demand. and to top it all off the unfunded pension liabilities in places like CA and IL are heavily invested in retail REITS...

so .. if big stores cut locations in order to stay profitable and compete with on-line, and small stores can renegotiate their rent rates, due to the drop in traffic that loosing an anchor store causes. and malls and retail property cant pay their mortgages due to the drop in income.. then the bundled loans and commercial REITS may start to fail wiping out a large percentage of the pension investments in places where they are underfunded and on shaky ground to begin with... you would have a retail bubble burst that had potential to make the housing bubble burst look like a minor economic blip in comparison..
Any updated thoughts on this, simon? Have the staffing cuts continued since you first posted this?
Simonjester wrote: I was working for the R US corporation at the time I wrote that and (if memory serves) it was well before they announced the bankruptcy that ultimately led to their closing.. I read the writing on the wall.. and started job hunting based on my previous experience in the building supply industry, and strong "hunch" that the way the company was being run was an indication that the end was nigh, I was ready to move on shortly after the bankruptcy deceleration and before they announced they were closing their doors. O0

The general economy is looking up a bit since then, and I am no longer with a big store retail company so I don’t have the inside view any more, but I suspect that the trend I saw in my op is still going strong in that sector, the 1990s retail model is obsolete and the corporate retail environment is frozen in cement and unable to change its thinking or practices.. my current prediction is that the trend will continue and the bubble will burst.. but a healthy general economy may slow down the time it takes before the reckoning comes..
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun May 20, 2018 10:38 am

A recent article highlighted how the costs of online advertising were working to reduce the price advantage of online shopping vs bricks and mortar.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by barrett » Sun May 20, 2018 11:21 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 10:38 am
A recent article highlighted how the costs of online advertising were working to reduce the price advantage of online shopping vs bricks and mortar.
Might you have a link for that article?

I don't watch much television but with the NBA playoffs going full tilt I have been tuning in more. It's striking how much of the advertising is about being able to order stuff on your phone "without leaving the couch." Equal importance is attached to, say, not losing one's hair and not leaving the couch. Now if we could only not have to pick up the damn smart phone, that would be progress!
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun May 20, 2018 3:53 pm

barrett wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 11:21 am
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 10:38 am
A recent article highlighted how the costs of online advertising were working to reduce the price advantage of online shopping vs bricks and mortar.
Might you have a link for that article?
I'll see if I can find it.
I don't watch much television but with the NBA playoffs going full tilt I have been tuning in more. It's striking how much of the advertising is about being able to order stuff on your phone "without leaving the couch." Equal importance is attached to, say, not losing one's hair and not leaving the couch. Now if we could only not have to pick up the damn smart phone, that would be progress!
I don't get why everything needs to be done on the phone. If you're at home on the couch, laptops are the best. Followed by pads, then phones. And if you're out waiting in line or on your car while you're driving, like a douche, you can probably wait till you get home to apply for your mortgage or order those socks on Amazon or whatever.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun May 20, 2018 3:59 pm

I almost gave up looking through the marginalrevolution pages too soon, it was further down on the last page I was on, but heroically I managed to scroll down one more. I am a ballin motherfucker.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... merce.html
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Mountaineer » Sun May 20, 2018 5:34 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 3:59 pm
I almost gave up looking through the marginalrevolution pages too soon, it was further down on the last page I was on, but heroically I managed to scroll down one more. I am a ballin motherfucker.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... merce.html

Krieg, is this you by another forum name at the above link? Sounds familiar, sort of like Krieg speak. R E S P E C T man, R E S P E C T. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

urethra Franklin
May 2, 2018 at 9:51 pm
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Cowen's being contrarian on bricks and mortar. Clearly they are mostly dying. As for George Mason's scandal? Plus ca spare change, man. Private universities are mostly country clubs, but with government loans bankrolling the poorer new members - it's an AMAZING scam, and my hat is off to the usufructs who've embedded themselves into the money stream. System don't work? Don't tell that to Tyler. He's got it wired. In the modern university, the professors are the senior golf pros, and the administration creams off the big profits. Again, it's an AMAZING scam. Mason's only mistake is to take right wing, rather than left wing, money. That's a tactical mistake in the moral universe of the university. They'll figure it out and they'll find a new Dean with a good scramble for new money - look for that leadership change next year. And they probably need a new bag man.


Respond
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by barrett » Sun May 20, 2018 6:20 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 3:59 pm
I almost gave up looking through the marginalrevolution pages too soon, it was further down on the last page I was on, but heroically I managed to scroll down one more. I am a ballin motherfucker.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginal ... merce.html
A ballin' mofo, indeed. I am actually surprised that e-commerce is not already a higher percentage of overall retail. This is from the article:

"The march of e-commerce has certainly looked inexorable. As a percentage of total retail sales, it matched its all-time high of 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, and gained share on a year-over-year basis at its fastest rate ever. At current growth rates e-commerce will be 10 percent of retail sales in 2018, and 15 percent by the middle of next decade."
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun May 20, 2018 9:35 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 4:32 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 3:59 pm
I am a ballin motherfucker.
And a modest one, too. :D
It's a miracle I'm as modest as I am, considering my handsomeness level.
Mountaineer wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 5:34 pm
Krieg, is this you by another forum name at the above link? Sounds familiar, sort of like Krieg speak. R E S P E C T man, R E S P E C T. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

urethra Franklin
May 2, 2018 at 9:51 pm
53
Cowen's being contrarian on bricks and mortar. Clearly they are mostly dying. As for George Mason's scandal? Plus ca spare change, man. Private universities are mostly country clubs, but with government loans bankrolling the poorer new members - it's an AMAZING scam, and my hat is off to the usufructs who've embedded themselves into the money stream. System don't work? Don't tell that to Tyler. He's got it wired. In the modern university, the professors are the senior golf pros, and the administration creams off the big profits. Again, it's an AMAZING scam. Mason's only mistake is to take right wing, rather than left wing, money. That's a tactical mistake in the moral universe of the university. They'll figure it out and they'll find a new Dean with a good scramble for new money - look for that leadership change next year. And they probably need a new bag man.


Respond
That's not me. But Uretha Franklin... O0
barrett wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 6:20 pm
A ballin' mofo, indeed. I am actually surprised that e-commerce is not already a higher percentage of overall retail. This is from the article:

"The march of e-commerce has certainly looked inexorable. As a percentage of total retail sales, it matched its all-time high of 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, and gained share on a year-over-year basis at its fastest rate ever. At current growth rates e-commerce will be 10 percent of retail sales in 2018, and 15 percent by the middle of next decade."
Cars, furniture, and clothes? I dunno. 10% seems pretty low, but that might explain it.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by clacy » Mon May 21, 2018 10:09 pm

The REIT's and commercial real estate investors I work with have been getting out of retail for the last 12-18 months. The writing is on the wall and outside of some companies that swoop in and get some steals for pennies on the dollar (likely from banks at that point), there won't be a lot of appetite for retail RE investment for the foreseeable future.

I think at least 20-30% of the existing retail shopping locations will go out of business in the next 4-5 years.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by stuper1 » Tue May 22, 2018 2:12 pm

What kinds of opportunities does this create?

Specifically, if someone had the means to buy a modest retail location and repurpose it for something other than retail?

Or any other opportunities?
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:19 am

Simonjester wrote: another domino falls.. sears has filed for bankruptcy, has plans to shut 142 locations, is $5.6 billion in debt, they have had to sell off major brands.. and the ceo has just stepped down.
It’s depressing. I grew up with Sears, and so did a bunch of you, I’m sure. Some articles say it could have been Amazon. Eddie Lampert never really executed a clear plan.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Xan » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:00 am

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:36 am
dualstow wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:19 am
Simonjester wrote: another domino falls.. sears has filed for bankruptcy, has plans to shut 142 locations, is $5.6 billion in debt, they have had to sell off major brands.. and the ceo has just stepped down.
It’s depressing. I grew up with Sears, and so did a bunch of you, I’m sure. Some articles say it could have been Amazon. Eddie Lampert never really executed a clear plan.
Not really that sad. They were once a powerhouse in retail, but I watched them go from a decent place to shop in the 60s to a store that sold Walmart quality merchandise at almost Macy's pricing by the late 90s. It was a recipe for the disaster that resulted. The only thing worth buying there was Craftsman tools and Kenmore appliances.
Both of those went downhill a while back. They killed the famous Craftsman warranty a long time ago, and then sold the brand to somebody else. Kenmores were all manufactured by other companies and then rebadged.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:00 am

Fair enough. Maybe it's misplaced nostalgia on my part.
I haven't shopped there in a while because I haven't had a car for many decades now.

Also, ten years ago I tried to have a Sears dishwasher delivered and installed. The cranky third party installer wanted me to reserve a parking space in the city, which I managed. Called Sears the night before to make sure the unit was ready and some kid offhandedly said "yeah", but it sounded like a big party in the background. Next morning, cranky contractor informed me they went to pick it up, and it was not ready.
Sears tried to give me a discount and I said, "I don't want you to have my business." I'm just remembering now that it was Sears. O0
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Kbg » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:19 pm

Yeah, it's a piece of iconic America gone for sure. I think/agree, Sears has been on the slide for a long time but the Hedge Fund dudes clearly mismanaged it and were more interested in sucking it dry using financial wizardry than to turn the business around.

But lots of business icons have been destroyed and more will be in the future for sure. The irony of Sears is they literally were the Amazon of their day and with decent foresight who knows there may not have been an Amazon. However, I think everyone is captured by their past and experience and by the time Amazon came around Sears was clearly a big box mall retail outfit.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:27 am

Jim Cramer just referred to (maybe quoted an article as referring to) Eddie Lampert as Capt Ahab. Perfect.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:35 am

For the past 20 years, Sears has been a place we parked, at the mall, and walked through to get to other stores, because there were the least amount of cars parked in front of Sears.

I last bought a bandsaw there 2 years ago, washer/dryer 21 years ago (still working...) and 2 vacuums.

Haven't bought clothes there since my mother used to when I was a kid. I recall the sizing was called "husky"
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:25 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:35 am
Haven't bought clothes there since my mother used to when I was a kid. I recall the sizing was called "husky"
O0 I had forgotten about that! Or was that their brand of jeans? Nope it's the fit. Just looked it up.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:41 pm

I was a husky kid. Fat is more like it. My grandparents lived with us, my grandma cooked all the time... I ate all the time. Italian, if you couldn't tell by my name.

"Peak" Huskiness, 6th grade. Peak hair too. The shirt, seriously, was probably from Sears.

Image
Last edited by Cortopassi on Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:50 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:41 pm
I was a husky kid. Fat is more like it. My grandparents lived with us, my grandma cooked all the time... I ate all the time. Italian, if you couldn't tell by my name.
Mmm, jealous. My mom's a good cook, but I would have loved an Italian grandmother's cooking.
Ha. Nice pic!
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:57 pm

I love Italian food ... and hair. I eat a lot of the former and have very, very little of the latter. O0
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Re: is the retail bubble bursting?

Post by geaux saints » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:11 pm

Mountaineer wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:57 pm
I love Italian food ... and hair. I eat a lot of the former and have very, very little of the latter. O0
Story of my life.
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