Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:40 pm

Desert wrote: I love IC engines, I have to admit.
That's internal combustion, not integrated circuit, right? O0 I was listening to that "audio ecologist" guy on the radio last month, the guy who records the sounds of nature around the world before they vanish. He admitted he loves the sounds of conventional trains. Hempton, I think his name is.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 20, 2017 2:54 pm

First name's Gordon. You'll find him.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4959
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:00 pm

Desert wrote:
dualstow wrote:
Desert wrote: I love IC engines, I have to admit.
That's internal combustion, not integrated circuit, right? O0 I was listening to that "audio ecologist" guy on the radio last month, the guy who records the sounds of nature around the world before they vanish. He admitted he loves the sounds of conventional trains. Hempton, I think his name is.
:) Yeah, internal combustion. I have a special affection for 2 stroke gasoline engines and 4 stroke diesels. I haven't heard of the audio ecologist guy ... I'll look him up, sounds interesting.
In my book, nothing can compare to the sound of a 1950s era coal fired steam locomotive hauling a long string of freight or coal up a slight grade and blowing the whistle before the small country road crossings. I can hear that huffing and chuffing and whistle in my head as plain as when I heard it as a child. Here is some "pre-computers" instruction on how people managed a relatively efficient (for the time) process with economics as the objective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74JaLw3u3-c
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8864
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:54 pm

Old steam trains are amazing to me. People built those things with hand tools and no electricity. Some of the finest pieces of pre-electric technology that have ever existed, IMHO.

There's actually no reason we couldn't keep doing it. With our modern understanding of thermodynamics and materials science, I'm sure we could design super high efficiency engines that barely emit any smoke at all. And of course wood is a carbon-neutral fuel! ;D If my friends on the left are correct and Donald Trump drives the USA into another dark age, I expect we could revive steam train technology very quickly, at least. ;)
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4959
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:13 pm

Desert wrote:This is the first bike that completely scared the crap out of me, as a teenager. This exact model. I didn't own it, it was my uncle's bike. It was hard to keep the front end down when it hit the powerband. This is a 2-stroke, obviously.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebvt7JNXHwU
Cool! Thinking of my years gone by, did you/your uncle refer to the bike as a rice burner or a crotch rocket? ;D
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8864
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:58 am

I'll admit I've never understood the appeal of those things. They're ear-splittingly noisy, incredibly dangerous, and super-polluting; a true hazard to life, limb, and the public peace.
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4959
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:53 am

Pointedstick wrote:I'll admit I've never understood the appeal of those things. They're ear-splittingly noisy, incredibly dangerous, and super-polluting; a true hazard to life, limb, and the public peace.
Perhaps this will help get your mind around the "crotch rocket" appeal. O0 Think Chuck Yeager in that first fastest man alive flight, cage fighting, Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay climbing Mt. Everest in 1953, Die Hard movies, Buzz Aldrin, roller coaster junkies, even the first President Bush skydiving.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8864
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Sat Jan 21, 2017 12:15 pm

Simonjester wrote:how do you get super polluting from a streetbike? i thought the mpg was in the hybrid car or better range...
By watching the linked video and looking at all the crap coming out of the tailpipe! I can't imagine those things had catalytic converters or any of the modern emissions control devices that have helped cities not smell like gas stations.
Simonjester wrote: vintage dirt bikes definitely spewed some fumes, but then there aren't enough them to pollute a city or many of them being ridden in a city for that matter... what with it being a dirt bike / motocross race bike... ;D

since i grew up around bikes like that, i still have fond memories of the smell of two stroke engines burning pre mix gas..... smells like fun to me...

i think i may have lost the thread a bit... for some reason i thought we were talking about street bikes, the terms crotch rocket and rice burner are descriptions of street bikes, i have never heard them used for a dirtbike..

IE - rice burner - a derogatory term for any bike made in japan, used by people that ride real motorcycles like Harley Davidson and triumph
- crotch rocket - a term of endearment or fear used to describe street bikes the are built like race bikes with an aerodynamic seating position and a big fast engine..
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4959
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Jan 21, 2017 3:39 pm

OK, OK ... I have helped divert the thread from the main topic. My apologies. Let's get real and return to wood/coal/buffalo chip burning stoves for heat, beef tallow candles, and whale oil lamps. Ahhhh, the magnificent odor. Anyone here ever think the smell of a windmill or solar panel had that same charm? Have you ever tried to make smores or roast a hot dog over a campsite "fire" of LED's? Besides, we can always wear respirators made of wet papyrus if the smoke gets too thick. There is far more to life than tweeking the last bit of electrons from the wall socket or living in a mega bee hive crammed together with thousands of other poor souls who have never walked barefoot in green grass and stepped in fresh bison poop. Just kidding ..... sort of. Back to my iPhone 7 Plus now for some real high tech "Trumped up" entertainment. ;)
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by I Shrugged » Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:30 am

I had an RD350. For such a small motor, it was terrifying the way it would suddenly come into its powerband. I never got comfortable trying to figure out how fast I could crank the throttle without the wheel coming up unexpectedly.

It looked just like this one, and you see how easily he wheelies it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1uFnwDbRhw
rickb
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 12:12 am

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by rickb » Mon Jan 23, 2017 1:59 pm

Coal supporters in Wyoming have introduced a bill that would effectively prohibit Wyoming utilities from using renewable energy sources:

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/1201 ... nge-denial
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8864
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:47 pm

These are desperation moves. They're fighting their own economic interest. It won't last.
dragoncar
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1111
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2011 7:23 pm

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by dragoncar » Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:53 pm

Pointedstick wrote:If you bemoan the poor state of political discourse nowadays but can't resist making bitter, snarky comments about your political opponents and their follies, foibles, and failures, understand that you are part of the problem. Be the change you want to see in the world.
Are you talking to me? Because I'd love it if people pointed out everyone's follies, foibles, and failures... that's how we avoid them in the future.
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8864
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Feb 08, 2017 3:35 pm

What's the simple payback on a treasury bond? At 3%, it's 33.3 years. Does that seem like a very good investment if you look at it from that perspective? I don't use simple payback as my measurement. I look at the cheapest price to avoid a recurring cost.

Let's say I have a $50/mo electric bill. It costs me $15,000 in investments (4% SWR) to get rid of that forever. If I can buy a solar PV array for less than that price, then the balance tips in that direction. And in many cases it's very easy to do that. The cost of solar is about $4/watt on average, and $2.8/watt after federal tax rebates (state rebates can sweeten the pot even more). In my neck of the woods, $50 will buy you 375 kWh. Multiple that by 12 and you have a yearly electricity consumption of 4,500 kWh. To generate 4,500 kWh yearly, PVWatts says someone in my area code would need only a 2.8 kW array! At the aforementioned pricing, your total cost for that should on average be $7,840.

So where I live, if a person wants to get rid of a $50/mo electric bill, they can buy $15,000 of investments, or a $7,840 solar PV array. Seen in this light, which makes more sense? Even without the tax credit, the PV array is still almost $5,000 cheaper than the investments!

Of course, there are complicating factors. The investment portfolio is more liquid and raises your net worth by 100% of the purchase price. But the solar PV array has a better chance of actually paying the bill for life when you take into account inflation; the electricity price that the investments need to offset is constantly rising, but the PV array keeps on producing kilowatts with a constant value, not dollars with a falling value. Also, it's better for the environment.

The numbers are even more favorable for solar if your electric rates are high.
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8864
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Feb 08, 2017 5:56 pm

Desert wrote:Yep, I agree with all that. Of course elimination of the power bill requires that you stay in the house forever.
Much if not all of the value of the array comes back to you when you sell the house, though. It's not 100% of the purchase price the way it is with an investment portfolio, true, but it's not nothing.

The way to stand out as a solar company is to get the price down, and the best way to do that is to find a way to reduce the "soft costs": marketing and customer acquisition, licensing and permitting, etc. Panels are dirt cheap and labor isn't going down, but the soft costs are much higher in the USA than they are in Europe and Australia. In Germany and Australia the all-in cost is about $2/watt, which is unbelievable.
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 7680
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by moda0306 » Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:34 pm

Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote:Yep, I agree with all that. Of course elimination of the power bill requires that you stay in the house forever.
Much if not all of the value of the array comes back to you when you sell the house, though. It's not 100% of the purchase price the way it is with an investment portfolio, true, but it's not nothing.

The way to stand out as a solar company is to get the price down, and the best way to do that is to find a way to reduce the "soft costs": marketing and customer acquisition, licensing and permitting, etc. Panels are dirt cheap and labor isn't going down, but the soft costs are much higher in the USA than they are in Europe and Australia. In Germany and Australia the all-in cost is about $2/watt, which is unbelievable.
I'm sure someone hit on this, but don't these things deteriorate? I can't imagine a useful life being longer than 40 years on something like that... am I wrong?
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8864
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Feb 08, 2017 6:48 pm

moda0306 wrote: I'm sure someone hit on this, but don't these things deteriorate? I can't imagine a useful life being longer than 40 years on something like that... am I wrong?
Thankfully, you are! http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blo ... aic-module

Fun quote:
“A PV cell is a rock that makes electricity,” said Davidson. “Unless something corrodes the electrical contacts, it will still keep working.”
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14231
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by dualstow » Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:14 pm

Pointedstick wrote:Old steam trains are amazing to me. People built those things with hand tools and no electricity. Some of the finest pieces of pre-electric technology that have ever existed, IMHO.

There's actually no reason we couldn't keep doing it. With our modern understanding of thermodynamics and materials science, I'm sure we could design super high efficiency engines that barely emit any smoke at all.
Like this? http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Hadden_Engine
I'm not sure whether that's actually in production.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:59 pm

I don't know, I've read that the panels do degrade. I bet his 30 year old one was built a lot better than the cheapies today.
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4959
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Feb 09, 2017 6:13 am

I Shrugged wrote:I don't know, I've read that the panels do degrade. I bet his 30 year old one was built a lot better than the cheapies today.
The small panels on my patio LED lights last about 2 years before UV exposure degrades them to the point of about 1/2 to 1/4 original battery charging capability.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8864
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:24 am

Mountaineer wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:I don't know, I've read that the panels do degrade. I bet his 30 year old one was built a lot better than the cheapies today.
The small panels on my patio LED lights last about 2 years before UV exposure degrades them to the point of about 1/2 to 1/4 original battery charging capability.
It's true that there are manufacturing differences between panels and enclosures. Solar PV modules are made out of silicon--a mineral that isn't affected by UV radiation. I suspect what's really degrading on your patio lights is the clear plastic they use instead of glass, which will cloud up and block the light from getting to the module. PV panels that are designed to produce power for buildings and feed into the grid use glass, not plastic.
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4959
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:47 am

Pointedstick wrote:
Mountaineer wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:I don't know, I've read that the panels do degrade. I bet his 30 year old one was built a lot better than the cheapies today.
The small panels on my patio LED lights last about 2 years before UV exposure degrades them to the point of about 1/2 to 1/4 original battery charging capability.
It's true that there are manufacturing differences between panels and enclosures. Solar PV modules are made out of silicon--a mineral that isn't affected by UV radiation. I suspect what's really degrading on your patio lights is the clear plastic they use instead of glass, which will cloud up and block the light from getting to the module. PV panels that are designed to produce power for buildings and feed into the grid use glass, not plastic.
HAIL yes. ;D
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Feb 09, 2017 3:50 pm

I have seen figures like 1% a year loss in output. If you google it, you'll find there are some studies, and basically "your mileage may vary".
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Aug 04, 2017 1:46 pm

User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4959
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:00 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:https://www.ecowatch.com/tesla-solar-ro ... picks=true

Look at how good these look.

They do look great, far better than the separate panels that go over the roof or on back yard turf. However, have you checked the cost? I saw the website where you plugged in your location, electrical needs and such. In my middle class neighborhood and climate, the cost including modest batteries for non-sun conditions would probably be from $50,000 to $75,000 and have something on the order of a 25 to 30 year payback and sketchy on whether selling the house would recover the investment. The big unknown is what energy costs will be in the future. The company I worked for insisted on a maximum of 7 year payback for all projects - too many unknowns when you go past that. Besides, I'm too old and I would never have the opportunity to recover the capital funds required now (assuming no medical infinite life miracles ;) ). Maybe if you are certain you will live, and live in the same house, for 30 years the risk would be worth it.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
Post Reply