Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

[Pointedstick]

These are desperation moves. They're fighting their own economic interest. It won't last.

[dragoncar]

If you bemoan the poor state of political discourse nowadays but can't resist making bitter, snarky comments about your political opponents and their follies, foibles, and failures, understand that you are part of the problem. Be the change you want to see in the world.

Are you talking to me? Because I'd love it if people pointed out everyone's follies, foibles, and failures... that's how we avoid them in the future.

[Pointedstick]

What's the simple payback on a treasury bond? At 3%, it's 33.3 years. Does that seem like a very good investment if you look at it from that perspective? I don't use simple payback as my measurement. I look at the cheapest price to avoid a recurring cost.

Let's say I have a $50/mo electric bill. It costs me $15,000 in investments (4% SWR) to get rid of that forever. If I can buy a solar PV array for less than that price, then the balance tips in that direction. And in many cases it's very easy to do that. The cost of solar is about $4/watt on average, and $2.8/watt after federal tax rebates (state rebates can sweeten the pot even more). In my neck of the woods, $50 will buy you 375 kWh. Multiple that by 12 and you have a yearly electricity consumption of 4,500 kWh. To generate 4,500 kWh yearly, PVWatts says someone in my area code would need only a 2.8 kW array! At the aforementioned pricing, your total cost for that should on average be $7,840.

So where I live, if a person wants to get rid of a $50/mo electric bill, they can buy $15,000 of investments, or a $7,840 solar PV array. Seen in this light, which makes more sense? Even without the tax credit, the PV array is still almost $5,000 cheaper than the investments!

Of course, there are complicating factors. The investment portfolio is more liquid and raises your net worth by 100% of the purchase price. But the solar PV array has a better chance of actually paying the bill for life when you take into account inflation; the electricity price that the investments need to offset is constantly rising, but the PV array keeps on producing kilowatts with a constant value, not dollars with a falling value. Also, it's better for the environment.

The numbers are even more favorable for solar if your electric rates are high.

[Pointedstick]

Yep, I agree with all that. Of course elimination of the power bill requires that you stay in the house forever.

Much if not all of the value of the array comes back to you when you sell the house, though. It's not 100% of the purchase price the way it is with an investment portfolio, true, but it's not nothing.

The way to stand out as a solar company is to get the price down, and the best way to do that is to find a way to reduce the "soft costs": marketing and customer acquisition, licensing and permitting, etc. Panels are dirt cheap and labor isn't going down, but the soft costs are much higher in the USA than they are in Europe and Australia. In Germany and Australia the all-in cost is about $2/watt, which is unbelievable.

[moda0306]

Yep, I agree with all that. Of course elimination of the power bill requires that you stay in the house forever.

Much if not all of the value of the array comes back to you when you sell the house, though. It's not 100% of the purchase price the way it is with an investment portfolio, true, but it's not nothing.

The way to stand out as a solar company is to get the price down, and the best way to do that is to find a way to reduce the "soft costs": marketing and customer acquisition, licensing and permitting, etc. Panels are dirt cheap and labor isn't going down, but the soft costs are much higher in the USA than they are in Europe and Australia. In Germany and Australia the all-in cost is about $2/watt, which is unbelievable.

I'm sure someone hit on this, but don't these things deteriorate? I can't imagine a useful life being longer than 40 years on something like that... am I wrong?

[Pointedstick]

I'm sure someone hit on this, but don't these things deteriorate? I can't imagine a useful life being longer than 40 years on something like that... am I wrong?

Thankfully, you are! http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blo ... aic-module

Fun quote:

“A PV cell is a rock that makes electricity,” said Davidson. “Unless something corrodes the electrical contacts, it will still keep working.”

[dualstow]

Old steam trains are amazing to me. People built those things with hand tools and no electricity. Some of the finest pieces of pre-electric technology that have ever existed, IMHO.

There's actually no reason we couldn't keep doing it. With our modern understanding of thermodynamics and materials science, I'm sure we could design super high efficiency engines that barely emit any smoke at all.

Like this? http://opensourceecology.org/wiki/Hadden_Engine
I'm not sure whether that's actually in production.

[I Shrugged]

I don't know, I've read that the panels do degrade. I bet his 30 year old one was built a lot better than the cheapies today.

[Mountaineer]

I don't know, I've read that the panels do degrade. I bet his 30 year old one was built a lot better than the cheapies today.

The small panels on my patio LED lights last about 2 years before UV exposure degrades them to the point of about 1/2 to 1/4 original battery charging capability.

[Pointedstick]

I don't know, I've read that the panels do degrade. I bet his 30 year old one was built a lot better than the cheapies today.

The small panels on my patio LED lights last about 2 years before UV exposure degrades them to the point of about 1/2 to 1/4 original battery charging capability.

It's true that there are manufacturing differences between panels and enclosures. Solar PV modules are made out of silicon--a mineral that isn't affected by UV radiation. I suspect what's really degrading on your patio lights is the clear plastic they use instead of glass, which will cloud up and block the light from getting to the module. PV panels that are designed to produce power for buildings and feed into the grid use glass, not plastic.

[Mountaineer]

I don't know, I've read that the panels do degrade. I bet his 30 year old one was built a lot better than the cheapies today.

The small panels on my patio LED lights last about 2 years before UV exposure degrades them to the point of about 1/2 to 1/4 original battery charging capability.

It's true that there are manufacturing differences between panels and enclosures. Solar PV modules are made out of silicon--a mineral that isn't affected by UV radiation. I suspect what's really degrading on your patio lights is the clear plastic they use instead of glass, which will cloud up and block the light from getting to the module. PV panels that are designed to produce power for buildings and feed into the grid use glass, not plastic.

HAIL yes.

[I Shrugged]

I have seen figures like 1% a year loss in output. If you google it, you'll find there are some studies, and basically "your mileage may vary".

[Kriegsspiel]

https://www.ecowatch.com/tesla-solar-ro ... picks=true

Look at how good these look.

[Mountaineer]

https://www.ecowatch.com/tesla-solar-ro ... picks=true

Look at how good these look.

They do look great, far better than the separate panels that go over the roof or on back yard turf. However, have you checked the cost? I saw the website where you plugged in your location, electrical needs and such. In my middle class neighborhood and climate, the cost including modest batteries for non-sun conditions would probably be from $50,000 to $75,000 and have something on the order of a 25 to 30 year payback and sketchy on whether selling the house would recover the investment. The big unknown is what energy costs will be in the future. The company I worked for insisted on a maximum of 7 year payback for all projects - too many unknowns when you go past that. Besides, I'm too old and I would never have the opportunity to recover the capital funds required now (assuming no medical infinite life miracles ). Maybe if you are certain you will live, and live in the same house, for 30 years the risk would be worth it.

[Pointedstick]

That product is a joke. The cost is (ahem) through the roof! It would barely be competitive even if they cut the per-square-foot cost in half. They have a lot of work to do if they want to sell outside of super-rich enclaves. The estimated cost for my house (without batteries) is $47,000, for example. The cost to replace the roof with nice last-forever metal panels and get a gold-standard solar array is closer to $20,000 with already-existing products.

[WiseOne]

I could see a role for this in cooperative apartment buildings in NYC. The city code makes it nearly impossible to put solar panels on rooftops, not to mention the usual issues with 100 year old buildings. The tiles are a relatively small part of the cost of doing roof replacements, and electricity here is priced over 3x the national average.

Definitely I'll mention this at the next coop committee meeting. It's worth at least looking into.

[Pointedstick]

I could see a role for this in cooperative apartment buildings in NYC. The city code makes it nearly impossible to put solar panels on rooftops

You should consider moving to a blue state, where they actually care about the environment and sustainability and don't try to regulate solar out of existence... oh wait

Dang, the Evil smiley isn't working!

[Kriegsspiel]

I haven't looked at the cost at all. So what, when Elon says they're gonna be cheaper than a regular roof, he's really only able to say that if you use numbers from California or something?

[WiseOne]

I could see a role for this in cooperative apartment buildings in NYC. The city code makes it nearly impossible to put solar panels on rooftops

You should consider moving to a blue state, where they actually care about the environment and sustainability and don't try to regulate solar out of existence... oh wait

Dang, the Evil smiley isn't working!

I know, deliciously ironic isn't it?

These tiles are in no way cheaper than standard roofing materials. I guess the claim comes from the projected savings in electricity costs, though there are a lot of assumptions buried in there that need to be checked. Flyers for very expensive things tend to be that way :-)

[Kriegsspiel]

https://www.ecowatch.com/tesla-solar-ro ... picks=true

Look at how good these look.

That product is a joke. The cost is (ahem) through the roof! It would barely be competitive even if they cut the per-square-foot cost in half. They have a lot of work to do if they want to sell outside of super-rich enclaves. The estimated cost for my house (without batteries) is $47,000, for example. The cost to replace the roof with nice last-forever metal panels and get a gold-standard solar array is closer to $20,000 with already-existing products.

TechCrunch has a new article fanboying the Solar Roof. It looks like they've gotten the costs down only a hair from when PS looked at them years ago. I went to the Solar Roof website to get an estimate for my house, and like PS, it would be $30,000 without batteries. But unlike PS, I don't live in the sunny, hot desert. It would take about half a century before I'd break even at my current electricity usage and rates. Kind of irrelevant to my current house anyways, since I have a pretty new roof on it.

That aside, I still need to look at whether it makes sense to stick a solar panel or two on my property just to aid in summer electricity usage (air conditioning).

[Pointedstick]

TechCrunch has a new article fanboying the Solar Roof. It looks like they've gotten the costs down only a hair from when PS looked at them years ago. I went to the Solar Roof website to get an estimate for my house, and like PS, it would be $30,000 without batteries. But unlike PS, I don't live in the sunny, hot desert. It would take about half a century before I'd break even at my current electricity usage and rates. Kind of irrelevant to my current house anyways, since I have a pretty new roof on it.

Very interesting. For comparison, last year I had a metal roof and a 7 kW solar array installed for about $29,000 (the solar was only about $17k and the roof had to be replaced anyway). The Tesla estimator says that going with them would be about $40,000 for a 10 kW array roof. That's a lot of dough, but 10 kW is more than 7, and it's getting into the realm of reasonability. Pretty impressive.

BTW my solar panels (in conjunction with electric heat pumps and other all-electric appliances) have driven my electricity, heating, and cooling bills to zero. yes, ZERO. Well okay, I do pay $8 a month for the electricity bill's base charge. Getting rid of that would require going off-grid with batteries, which is not yet economically feasible, but probably will be in 5 or 10 years. However in the meantime I have no gas bill and expect to receive a check from the electric company for all the extra electricity I produced this year, which I could alternatively use to charge an electric car FOR FREE. That's right, once I get an electric car, it will replace my $65/mo gas bill with... nothing.

The total cost for all of this has been much, much less than the amount I would have needed to save in my investment portfolio to produce income equaling the monthly expenditures that I no longer have. And as for the extra monthly cashflow... I just put it back into savings and investments. This stuff's real, folks. It ain't just something made up by the loony muddle-brained libtards you love to hate. It's real dollars and cents here. Renewables and energy efficiency and gas-to-electric conversion and battery storage and electric cars are the future because they're simply cheaper and better.

[Kriegsspiel]

Very interesting. For comparison, last year I had a metal roof and a 7 kW solar array installed for about $29,000 (the solar was only about $17k and the roof had to be replaced anyway). The Tesla estimator says that going with them would be about $40,000 for a 10 kW array roof. That's a lot of dough, but 10 kW is more than 7, and it's getting into the realm of reasonability. Pretty impressive.

BTW my solar panels (in conjunction with electric heat pumps and other all-electric appliances) have driven my electricity, heating, and cooling bills to zero. yes, ZERO. Well okay, I do pay $8 a month for the electricity bill's base charge. Getting rid of that would require going off-grid with batteries, which is not yet economically feasible, but probably will be in 5 or 10 years. However in the meantime I have no gas bill and expect to receive a check from the electric company for all the extra electricity I produced this year, which I could alternatively use to charge an electric car FOR FREE. That's right, once I get an electric car, it will replace my $65/mo gas bill with... nothing.

The total cost for all of this has been much, much less than the amount I would have needed to save in my investment portfolio to produce income equaling the monthly expenditures that I no longer have. And as for the extra monthly cashflow... I just put it back into savings and investments. This stuff's real, folks. It ain't just something made up by the loony muddle-brained libtards you love to hate. It's real dollars and cents here. Renewables and energy efficiency and gas-to-electric conversion and battery storage and electric cars are the future because they're simply cheaper and better.

Good stuff my little brony. I still don't think a full solar system makes sense here. but one thing I'm looking more into is installing a smaller system just to peak shave air conditioning use in the summer (and whatever else I can get from it outside of that). I figure a smaller system (maybe 3 kW) would be fine. A smaller system would let less of the federal tax credit go to waste as well. If a 3 kW system costs about $7,500 (internet estimate), that could be an interesting proposition.

[Pointedstick]

You can roll over unused parts of the tax credit across multiple years BTW.

[Kriegsspiel]

You can roll over unused parts of the tax credit across multiple years BTW.

Right, I just likely will have a low federal tax liability.

[vnatale]

Resurrecting this topic in hopes that I can entice Pointedstick to get back into the discussion. I know he has done solar and continues to have a keen interest in it.

I am now seriously investigating solar for my house and looking for any assistance I can get from Pointedstick and anyone else reading this.

I investigate solars in 2016 thinking then I was definitely going to get it then but for about five reasons I decided not to do so.

This is now part of all kinds of work I have had done and will be having done to my house this year.

When I was looking to buy my house in the 1982 winter a friend of mine who owned a woodworking company looked at it and told me that it would be a low maintenance house. That it has proved to be true as the last substantial money I spent on it was nearly 17 years ago - in December 2005 -for a new roof - $7,000.

I will be soon getting a new driveway - $8,000. For that to happen I had to first deal with some tree issues. The tree person to cut them all down and other trim work - $1,800. I've had an almost yearly problem with the annual snow melt putting water in my basement (almost never from any kind of rain). I hired someone to regrade all around my house, to put a water impermeable material with stones on top of that material in the back of my house, removed all the tree stumps left by the tree person, and also remove the stumps from about 12 shrubs. Cost - $3,500. Just had the end of my garage floor repaired - $500. Getting a new large garage door - $2,500. Getting a new side garage door and the large garage door entryway enlarged a foot - $?????.

I am about to review the three quotes I have received for solar. I think that they might be in the area of $25,000 for a 6,000 kwH system.

An issue that has arisen which I do not like is that each has said that my roof is too old to have a solar system put in it. My roof has 30 year shingles and everyone who has looked at it says that it is in excellent condition. Could go about 8 years with no issues. Maybe even the full 13 years to get to 30 years.

Therefore doing a premature roof replacement would be an additional cost of going solar. Additionally no tax credits would apply to this additional cost.

I've had three roofers come to my property this past week. The lowest quotes I received were $10,500 for the entire house and about $5,000 for the east side roof of the house where the solar would be located.

I had two friends come by on Friday to discuss this issue plus look at other work at my house. Both of them stated that they'd only do that east side of the house.

Spending $5,000 extends the current life of that part of the roof but I'm losing 1/3 of the value of the current roof by using at least 8 years of good roof life. Therefore I'm going to need to add about $1,700 to the cost of going solar, which will extend the number of years before the whole investment pays back.

In getting all the above work done I enlisted a "house committee" of more than 15 friends who came to my house or talked to me on the phone or communicated via email regarding all the issues regarding that work. Discussed was what specific work I should get done and who I should hire. Their advice was quite good and highly influential in me making decisions.

I have read various solar discussions here and hoping to add any of you to my "house committee" regarding going solar. I've read several of you discussing it both here and elsewhere and know Pointedstick, at least, has direct experience with a solar system.

One of this forum's attractions to me has been the high level of intelligence and knowledge that is brought to a wide variety of topics -- not just those related to the Permanent Portfolio.

Years ago I was somewhat involved in the Bogleheads. However, none for the last three year I've been here becasue I'm always going to be favoring a smaller forum such as this wherein I get far more familiar with its participants and their various expertise's (witnessed by me recently focusing certain questions toward kbg).

Now that I've completed this post I am going to also resurrect my own Excel worksheet analysis I created in 2016 which I believe it necessary and superior to the payback analysis that is provided to you by the solar companies. I use some of my own modified assumptions plus some things they leave out. Most importantly I bring it all back to a present value basis.

Thanks for any input any of you are willing to give regarding me going solar!