Trump Wins - post-game discussion

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dragoncar
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by dragoncar » Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:44 pm

Maddy wrote:
dragoncar wrote:
technovelist wrote: Thus, there is no equivalency between left and right when it comes to rioting.
I agree there's no equivalency, as rioting tends to happen in urban areas and trump supporters are primarily rural. Even urban Republicans are less likely to riot given that they are the minority in their locale. However, get enough of them together and sure, there will be problems, e.g., http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/us/an ... nruly.html

No, the reaction on the right is typically more targeted: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/46052395/ns/u ... n-victory/
That this kind of ridiculous non-argument would be made in the company of critical thinkers boggles my mind. One great example of the tired (and by now completely transparent) radical egalitarian mantra that nobody should be condemned because everybody's equally bad. Well, they're not. You can transport a badly-behaved progressive to the outer reaches of rural America and he'll still be a badly-behaved progressive. (Ask me how I know.)
How is this a non-argument? Don't pretend that the right accepted Obama with open arms -- their protests just didn't take the same form for largely geographical reasons. You can't riot without population density.
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:17 pm

dragoncar wrote:How is this a non-argument? Don't pretend that the right accepted Obama with open arms -- their protests just didn't take the same form for largely geographical reasons. You can't riot without population density.
The right is full of mature, older adults not young, naive whippersnappers rioting in decaying urban shitholes. That makes all the difference in tactics. But worse, they're rioting based on complete mental falsehoods because that is how Obama and Clinton played it up (and they've been completely silent about the rioting because why rock the boat of their tenuous political power?).

I bet if anyone bothered to look, the Congressional Republicans halted any fiscal spending that Obama suggested that would have helped get us out of the zombie economy. So they didn't sit on any principle whatsoever if they do an about face with Trump, which I expect they will do.

It's all a game and you better know who the patsy is.
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Maddy
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by Maddy » Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:42 am

That this kind of ridiculous non-argument would be made in the company of critical thinkers boggles my mind. One great example of the tired (and by now completely transparent) radical egalitarian mantra that nobody should be condemned because everybody's equally bad. Well, they're not. You can transport a badly-behaved progressive to the outer reaches of rural America and he'll still be a badly-behaved progressive. (Ask me how I know.)
How is this a non-argument? Don't pretend that the right accepted Obama with open arms -- their protests just didn't take the same form for largely geographical reasons. You can't riot without population density.
That's exactly the point. The protests have not taken the same form.

What I'm criticizing is the fact that you have asserted, without any basis whatsoever, that but for the geographic location and density of conservative populations, they, too, would be rioting, smashing the car windows, looting businesses, blocking ambulances on the highway, viciously attacking people who voted against their candidate, and threatening to assassinate elected officials and electors? What is your evidence for that?
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:28 am

Last day for the charts!

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:31 am

What's with all that crime nearly engulfing all of Arizona???
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:56 am

I am extremely skeptical of the idea that the cost to make an iPhone would rise $80-90, being familiar with the institutional machinery required to make Chinese manufacturing work. Looking only at materials and assembly is myopic. You need to hire a whole division of Chinese-American cultural and linguistic translators to oversee the entire operation and pay for frequent international travel. Orders need to be done in massive bulk to realize cost savings. The finished product takes three weeks to arrive by boat, with a single port (Los Angeles) providing a bottleneck that can shut down your business if there is a disruption there and you can't get your goods into the USA for some reason (I have seen this happen). On top of all that, the guys who own and run the factories are copying your designs no matter what contract you had them sign, and producing indigenous copies that are increasingly making it back to you own market. This doesn't just benefit them personally; it is a critical element of China's domestic R&D effort. You do all the work, and they just copy it and compete with you.

When you include all of these soft costs, I expect that the real premium for American manufacturing is much lower.
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by sophie » Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:56 am

Everyone is forgetting that price of goods is only part of the picture.

Let's assume that yes, the price of an iPhone will go up $80 if they are manufactured in the US, and that similar price increases will occur for other manufactured items. Here is a list of the benefits that will accrue:

- The new manufacturing facility will pay taxes in the US rather than in China. This is a boost to local, state, and federal income.

- It will employ Americans who are currently working in lower wage jobs, or unemployed. This will have the following effects:
- increased taxes paid by employees
- increased spending by employees, which feeds the local economy and boosts other businesses
- decreased local and state spending on Medicaid, food stamps, unemployment benefits, disability etc

- Importing items incurs shipping and transport costs that are greater than is needed by products made in the US
- Not sure if these are taken into account in calculating that iPhone price increase - so maybe it won't be a full $80 after all** EDIT: see PS's great post above!
- Ships use dirty (#2) oil, which results in a LOT of greenhouse gas and particulate emissions. Environmentalists? HELLO??? Amazing no one ever talks about this.

- Our landfills are being filled with tons of Chinese-made (or whereever it's made) crap that breaks after a year. American-made stuff will presumably last longer, thus garbage collection and landfill costs will be reduced.

- Your replacement costs of appliances will decrease in many cases, since you'll be spending 10-20% more for an appliance that will last probably more than twice as long as the cheap Chinese-made version. It'll also work better and will be less likely to arrive defective and need immediate replacement.

As far as importation of perishables like food:

- Your cat and dog food will no longer be in constant danger of being spiked with melamine
- Your food will be less likely to contain things you would rather not be consuming, like heavy metals
- See above for the impact of long-range shipping

So this is the long-winded way of saying that I think the benefits of globalization are highly questionable, to say the least.
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:25 am

Whoops, forgot this:

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"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:38 am

sophie wrote:So this is the long-winded way of saying that I think the benefits of globalization are highly questionable, to say the least.
It's questionable for Westerners but not non-Westerners, that is for sure. We're basically subsidizing all non-Westerners so their living standards improve which smells like another liberal ideology hence probably why they all seem to be unabashed globalists. It's that "justice" and "fairness" crap they circle jerk endlessly over... while consistently refusing to acknowledge that capitalism has risen them out of poverty.

The thing that's the sticking point is the comparative advantage. China has such a massive manufacturing infrastructure and deep talent advantage by now that I don't see how we can simply start anew from scratch. More than likely we'll just build automated factories driven by robots and virtually nil human labor to take advantage of our cheap natural gas neither which is something that China has (Taiwan might). I suspect it won't do much for increasing employment in the long-term. Why would an employer hire someone who isn't a self-starter and train them to oversee the robots when they can just hire someone out of college with a degree?

OTOH, cheaper items from China even at a lower quality point helps the struggling lower and middle classes that elected Trump. But which occured first? Chicken and egg.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:48 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by Desert » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:40 am

Pointedstick wrote:I am extremely skeptical of the idea that the cost to make an iPhone would rise $80-90, being familiar with the institutional machinery required to make Chinese manufacturing work. Looking only at materials and assembly is myopic. You need to hire a whole division of Chinese-American cultural and linguistic translators to oversee the entire operation and pay for frequent international travel. Orders need to be done in massive bulk to realize cost savings. The finished product takes three weeks to arrive by boat, with a single port (Los Angeles) providing a bottleneck that can shut down your business if there is a disruption there and you can't get your goods into the USA for some reason (I have seen this happen). On top of all that, the guys who own and run the factories are copying your designs no matter what contract you had them sign, and producing indigenous copies that are increasingly making it back to you own market. This doesn't just benefit them personally; it is a critical element of China's domestic R&D effort. You do all the work, and they just copy it and compete with you.

When you include all of these soft costs, I expect that the real premium for American manufacturing is much lower.
Yeah, the true cost of off-shoring is finally being recognized by the dim upper management types in the U.S. It took a couple decades, but they're finally starting to understand the real cost.

Meanwhile, China is shifting more toward true innovation, not just copying. We're going to see a lot of new technology coming out of China that wasn't invented in the West.
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:52 am

MachineGhost wrote:What's with all that crime nearly engulfing all of Arizona???
They have big counties.
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Re: Trump Wins - post-game discussion

Post by l82start » Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:25 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
dragoncar wrote:How is this a non-argument? Don't pretend that the right accepted Obama with open arms -- their protests just didn't take the same form for largely geographical reasons. You can't riot without population density.
The right is full of mature, older adults not young, naive whippersnappers rioting in decaying urban shitholes. That makes all the difference in tactics. But worse, they're rioting based on complete mental falsehoods because that is how Obama and Clinton played it up (and they've been completely silent about the rioting because why rock the boat of their tenuous political power?).
It's all a game and you better know who the patsy is.
the riots are also largely started and encouraged by paid agent provocateurs, look at the arrest reports from these major cities/population dense areas and there are less locals being picked up for protesting violence and vandalism than professional protesters. the combination of young emotional kids with undeveloped reasoning skills and agitators riling them up is volatile.... its definitely a combination that is more common on the left than the right,
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