Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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MachineGhost
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Pointedstick wrote:Is your brain broken? You're talking about the extravagant luxury spending of people making half a million bucks a year. I'm talking about the lower middle class. If you make $500k a year you can realistically afford whatever you want with even the tiniest attempt at financial efficiency. This has nothing to do with urban design patterns that encourage car and single family home ownership that is financially challenging for people with more normal incomes.
Is yours? That's not what you said:
Add in high health insurance costs and tuition at private schools and colleges and you get a pretty good picture of why people who live in this way are financially sinking while people who avoid it are doing okay.
Lower middle class people don't have high health insurance costs nor send their kids to private schools and colleges. I'm just refuting your claim here that "rich people" are "financially failiing" because you're perhaps subconsciously trying to rationalize your own lower middle class lifestyle.

Financially failing, my ass... and yet they think they're only average! ::)
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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MachineGhost wrote:
Kriegsspiel wrote:I think PS was talking about normal people, not the richest people in the history of the planet.
Thank you for proving my point. The example given is pretty normal for SF, NYC, etc.. Are they the "richest people"? Are they failing? Seriously doubtful.
Yes, you were describing rich people. The richest in the history of the planet.

I'm assuming you didn't have a point other than rich people are rich? And that a lot of them live in SF and NY?
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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I don't think there's anything wrong with suburbia. I grew up in a fairly small town and while I got to the mall by bicycle, anything else required a car. If I had kids, I'd want to have a car or at least access to Car Share whether we needed it on a daily basis or not.

As a childless couple, we find it convenient that we can roll out of bed and make it to a movie theater, a bookstore, or a burger place in 8-12 minutes on foot. Train station 15 minutes. Chinatown, maybe 35 minutes. A park, under 1 minute.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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MachineGhost wrote:
Pointedstick wrote:Is your brain broken? You're talking about the extravagant luxury spending of people making half a million bucks a year. I'm talking about the lower middle class. If you make $500k a year you can realistically afford whatever you want with even the tiniest attempt at financial efficiency. This has nothing to do with urban design patterns that encourage car and single family home ownership that is financially challenging for people with more normal incomes.
Is yours? That's not what you said:
Add in high health insurance costs and tuition at private schools and colleges and you get a pretty good picture of why people who live in this way are financially sinking while people who avoid it are doing okay.
Lower middle class people don't have high health insurance costs nor send their kids to private schools and colleges. I'm just refuting your claim here that "rich people" are "financially failiing" because you're perhaps subconsciously trying to rationalize your own lower middle class lifestyle.

Financially failing, my ass... and yet they think they're only average! ::)
Do you actually know any lower middle class people? I do. Quite a few of them do things like buy expensive health insurance, commute to work in SUVs, and send their kids to private schools and liberal arts colleges. It's all aspirational; they believe that those are the kinds of things that upper middle-class people do and want to emulate them, no different from truly poor people wearing outrageous jewelry because that's what rich people do, right? My point was that these are the sorts of poor decisions that keep poor people poor. The car-dependency-inducing built environment is a big part of it, but it's only one slice of the pie.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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dualstow wrote:As a childless couple, we find it convenient that we can roll out of bed and make it to a movie theater, a bookstore, or a burger place in 8-12 minutes on foot. Train station 15 minutes. Chinatown, maybe 35 minutes. A park, under 1 minute.
Where exactly do you live? I'm on the prowl.

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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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MachineGhost wrote:Where exactly do you live?
Well, that's private information :) as Harry Browne used to say.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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In my high-income bubble (nice suburb), half or more wage earners work from home. With the advent of more flexible work schedules and home offices due to recent technology, it seems like the days of long commutes and slower productivity due to distance are over.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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clacy and dualstow, I don't think the issue is whether suburbs/exurbs are aesthetically pleasing. Or that people like living there. The Ponzi scheme series argues that they are inherently unsustainable whether one likes them or not, because people who live there aren't taxed enough. I am curious as to how broadly his street-cost example can be applied to different regions.

His model does seem, at first glance, to apply to the interstate highways though. I followed a trail of links from strongtowns to a Congressional Budget Office report. The basic gist looked to be that the nation's highways expenses are exceeding the tax revenues used to support them. One of the "fixes" vaguely reminded me of the tier system JMG wrote about, and the private toll road that libertarians seem to write about quite a bit (and that fans of government roads usually don't like)... having people pay for the roads they travel on.
Charging drivers specifically for using roads would increase economic output by
allowing highly valued transportation to move more quickly and more reliably. Such
pricing could take the form of per-mile charges (also known as vehicle-miles traveled,
or VMT, charges), congestion charges, or tolls on Interstate highways. When faster
travel and avoiding delays were a priority, drivers could opt to pay for the use of a less
congested road, and when travel speed was less important, they could use a road with
a lower fee or avoid paying a fee by using a road without one. Charges that varied by
time of day or that differed by road would also affect economic activity by limiting
congestion.
Besides affecting travel, such pricing would raise revenues, which could be used to make
repairs, expand capacity, or substantially renovate the Interstate System or could be put
to other purposes. It would also provide important information for spending decisions
by showing how much drivers value the use of a road, helping to set priorities for future
improvements. Over time, with more use of pricing, spending could shift from less
productive to more productive uses of highways. Such shifts could boost economic
growth—or they could allow spending to be reduced without affecting overall growth.
According to the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), widespread use of
congestion pricing, for example, could reduce the amount of capital investment
needed to meet a given set of goals for performance of the highway system by roughly
30 percent.
So there you go. You'd pay to get the level of service you want. If you want to pay less, you have to travel on shittier roads. I do like how this would "increase growth" though.
However, that approach would raise several concerns: Charging drivers to use roads
could raise concerns about privacy, depending on the methods used. The approach
could also place a proportionately greater burden on low-income households.
Moreover, highway users could resent paying tolls if they believed that they had already
paid for the roads through gasoline taxes over the years. And technological hurdles
may exist: Although the costs of charging drivers are declining with improvements in
technology, the costs remain higher than those for collecting revenues through the
gasoline tax.
I read this as: pro-government people don't like to feel like they're on a private toll road. When they find out that their taxes don't fully pay for the road, they want more money to magically appear instead of paying more themselves. Poor people who probably shouldn't even be driving a car on the highway, as PS said, would need to be subsidized somehow. Oh, and highways would become permanently more expensive, since they'd now include means to make people pay for them when they use them.

I'm not saying all this in the mood of "Yeaaaa buddy! DIE HIGHWAYS! DIE!" In the same spirit as suburbs/exurbs, maybe the interstate is something that's really nice and definitely more convenient than the system of roads before it, but someone's gotta pay for it if it doesn't fund itself.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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The cost of infrastructure vs tax productivity is a real one. My city was heavily overbuilt with road and utility infrastructure in the 70s, the result of over-exuberant growth projections that were never realized. Now we have thousands of miles of roads that literally nobody drives on, because they're in the middle of nowhere and the land on both sides is empty. There's nowhere to go to. The roads and infrastructure are hugely expensive, yet our property taxes are low. I pay about $1,400 a year for my house on half an acre. The tax productivity of these kinds of residential lots is incredibly poor. As a result, my city is constantly appealing to the state and even federal government for infrastructure money. The mayor just recently won local accolades for successfully extracting $2 million from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers that they promised for a new water treatment plant but never delivered. These kinds of places are not financially self-sufficient, always begging other levels of government for money or outside corporations to move and bring jobs and tax revenue.

Denser development would increase tax productivity and local financial self-sufficiency. A lot of small-government types complain about higher levels of government oppressing smaller more local ones, but one of the biggest ways they do this is by simply threatening to cut off the supply of subsidies if their terms aren't met. Cities and states that were more financially self-sufficient could much more easily resist this. But doing so requires higher-density development with relaxed zoning, smaller or no setback requirements, and less financially unproductive private transit infrastructure, which those same people tend to be allergic to. A great irony is those libertarians and off-gridders who live in isolated rural properties, whose access to private markets is totally dependent on government-provided roads that they are not even remotely coming close to paying their fair share of. They don't approve of course, but nonetheless they chose to live there and are proportionally the biggest recipients of government infrastructure subsidies.

Thus we are left with the extremely silly status quo in which people who resent and distrust broader levels of government favor patterns of development that permanently tie them to those very institutions. :P
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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I can't help but think of the Net Neutrality debate in regards to privatizing "unfair" highways.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Kriegsspiel wrote:clacy and dualstow, I don't think the issue is whether suburbs/exurbs are aesthetically pleasing. Or that people like living there. The Ponzi scheme series argues that they are inherently unsustainable whether one likes them or not, because people who live there aren't taxed enough.
Indeed. Raise taxes.

I really appreciate PS's thoughts on this. I used to visit your town, PS, in the 70s and 80s. Needless to say, it was a lot smaller back then.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Thanks Dualstow!

You actually don't need to raise taxes in most cases. What what you need to raise is density and then taxes can stay the same or even fall. It's all tied into the concept of tax productivity.

I pay $1,400 a year in property taxes. Pretty low. Back in the 60s, my current half acre parcel could easily have been subdivided into four 1/8 acre lots each with its own single-story single-family house of the same size. Doing this, if the total property bill remained the same, each household would personally pay a bill of $350, or only one fourth as much as I pay now! If the city decided to raise a lot more money and doubled the total tax bill, each house would still only pay $700--half of what I pay. A broader but shallower tax base that results from higher density can raise more money in total while actually reducing each individual property's bill. Everybody wins. And you could probably put six or more two-store houses in the same place. They could even have nice big backyards if they weren't set back 20 feet from the street, and there's no reason for that anyway since vehicle traffic in these kinds of neighborhoods rarely goes faster than 15 MPH and any desired separation from the street can easily be accomplished with a little 5-foot front garden and a low wall which are nicer anyway than a sterile, unused patch of grass.

In these cases, not only would the city get more tax money and each family pay less, each family would also have to spend substantially less time and money on landscaping and land maintenance. This stuff is actually not very fun, especially if you have a huge area to take care of. Who like mowing lawns? Lawn area is unused 99.99% of the time. And green thumbs and gardeners don't actually need a huge area to be happy.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Pointedstick wrote:Thanks Dualstow!

You actually don't need to raise taxes in most cases. What what you need to raise is density and then taxes can stay the same or even fall. It's all tied into the concept of tax productivity.
Ok, yes, or that. I meant, to get what they seem to want (the low density suburbia they moved to), they need to pay more in taxes. Don't want to be bait-and-switching people, now do we? Incidentally, I just watched his talk in the "What are you doing, Maine" article, which shows this with real numbers. He's a very personable speaker, so even non-nerds might enjoy it.
I pay $1,400 a year in property taxes. Pretty low. Back in the 60s, my current half acre parcel could easily have been subdivided into four 1/8 acre lots each with its own single-story single-family house of the same size. Doing this, if the total property bill remained the same, each household would personally pay a bill of $350, or only one fourth as much as I pay now! If the city decided to raise a lot more money and doubled the total tax bill, each house would still only pay $700--half of what I pay. A broader but shallower tax base that results from higher density can raise more money in total while actually reducing each individual property's bill. Everybody wins. And you could probably put six or more two-store houses in the same place.
In his talk, he does this same trick with commercial properties. A block of "blighted" businesses generates more tax revenue and is more resilient than the same footprint when it's taken up by, say, a new restaurant, with attendant parking and green space around it.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Even though I would rather see better (more) density, I just feel like raising taxes is more practical. The wealthier suburbanites, at least, will put up with it.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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It might be interesting to see what people who move to the suburbs are actually after. Since technically I live in suburbia, here's my list:

Good public schools
Low crime
My own land
A certain amount of privacy
More space than is typical in an American apartment or condo; minimum 3 bedrooms
Space for a workshop
Affordable housing @ ≤ $100/sf
View of the sky and the mountain
Walkable to grocery stores, restaurants, banks, parks, etc

Notably, none of that actually requires huge lots, wide roads, deep building setbacks, "green space", 2 car garages, and the like, and the last one generally opposes them.

I'd be interested to see what the generally pro-suburb people (Tortoise and Clacy?) would have on their personal lists.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Pointedstick wrote:It might be interesting to see what people who move to the suburbs are actually after. Since technically I live in suburbia, here's my list:

Good public schools
Low crime
My own land
A certain amount of privacy
More space than is typical in an American apartment or condo; minimum 3 bedrooms
Space for a workshop
Affordable housing @ ≤ $100/sf
View of the sky and the mountain
Walkable to grocery stores, restaurants, banks, parks, etc

Notably, none of that actually requires huge lots, wide roads, deep building setbacks, "green space", 2 car garages, and the like, and the last one generally opposes them.

I'd be interested to see what the generally pro-suburb people (Tortoise and Clacy?) would have on their personal lists.
Low crime
Privacy
Quietness away from the manic city noise, crowds, traffic, crime - THE big one for me
My own property to landscape or not as I wish - trees, flowers, patio, bbq grill, etc.
Good access by car to 95% of what I want to do in 30 minutes or less, 60 minutes maximum to 100%.

... Mountaineer
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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I actually totally agree with you guys, particularly the no shared wall thing. Hearing my neighbors having sex always made me realize that they could probably hear me having sex. Awful. I am totally with you on the superiority of single-family detached housing to apartments or condos.

Thing is, none of these things we all want actually require suburbia. You can have safety by pricing out the criminals and with "eyes on the street" from people walking around instead of having a huge expensive police force full of fat vehicle-borne officers who never actually come to know their beats except through a windshield. Good schools without insane property taxes only really require a critical mass of families with children who care about them, plus a certain amount of conservatives. And a lot of the "loudness" we associate with city life is actually the sound of whooshing cars. I once lived in an apartment complex right next to a freeway and it was unbearable. It's really not so much the people who are loud, it's the cars! Access to where you want to go is largely a function of distance and speed. If it's far away, you need to go faster to get there; if it's close by, you don't, which means maybe you can walk. Unless you simply like cars for their own sake, there is no particular reason why cars should be required for getting to most of the places where you want to go if things aren't ridiculously far apart from one another, which they won't be if the city government doesn't mandate enormous roads, 20 foot setbacks on all sides, and single-use zoning everywhere.

Nathan Lewis (Mr. Really Narrow Streets) has some great articles on how you can have traditional walkable urbanism with nothing but single-family detached housing that preserves privacy, leaves you space for vehicles, and has land for you to garden in. A lot of it showcases Japan so I'm simply going to assume good schools and public safety, and the rest is pretty self-evident. I heavily recommend them:

http://www.newworldeconomics.com/archiv ... 61211.html
http://www.newworldeconomics.com/archiv ... 71711.html

Even if you don't want to read all the words, just look at the pictures and the captions.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Pointedstick wrote:You actually don't need to raise taxes in most cases. What what you need to raise is density and then taxes can stay the same or even fall. It's all tied into the concept of tax productivity.
Isn't that what urban metros do already? And it does seem against the natural inclination of relatively wealthier people wanting bigger spaces away from their neighbors. Just look at how stressful living in dense, crowded NYC is! It's a shithole, but of a different kind than SoCal represents. And yet, people put up with it, even the wealthy people, although they do put up different kinds of barriers than purchasing huge lots of land (like buying an entire palace suite floor at the top of a high rise).

And lets be honest, the vast majority of Americans are now fucking fat and/or obese. They literally need more square footage just to move around in comfortably and not engage in traffic congestion with each other. So I got a really hard time understanding how you can envision taking all these whales and packing them into even more density than we have at present.

What a world!
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Pointedstick wrote:I pay $1,400 a year in property taxes. Pretty low. Back in the 60s, my current half acre parcel could easily have been subdivided into four 1/8 acre lots each with its own single-story single-family house of the same size. Doing this, if the total property bill remained the same, each household would personally pay a bill of $350, or only one fourth as much as I pay now! If the city decided to raise a lot more money and doubled the total tax bill, each house would still only pay $700--half of what I pay. A broader but shallower tax base that results from higher density can raise more money in total while actually reducing each individual property's bill. Everybody wins. And you could probably put six or more two-store houses in the same place. They could even have nice big backyards if they weren't set back 20 feet from the street, and there's no reason for that anyway since vehicle traffic in these kinds of neighborhoods rarely goes faster than 15 MPH and any desired separation from the street can easily be accomplished with a little 5-foot front garden and a low wall which are nicer anyway than a sterile, unused patch of grass.
I'm confused. Aren't you arguing for the Bay Area shithole you already fleed from here? If not, then what is the crucial difference?
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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dualstow wrote:I really appreciate PS's thoughts on this. I used to visit your town, PS, in the 70s and 80s. Needless to say, it was a lot smaller back then.
You sure been around! So where do you live now? You don't have to be specific. I don't believe in stalking.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Kriegsspiel wrote:Ok, yes, or that. I meant, to get what they seem to want (the low density suburbia they moved to), they need to pay more in taxes. Don't want to be bait-and-switching people, now do we? Incidentally, I just watched his talk in the "What are you doing, Maine" article, which shows this with real numbers. He's a very personable speaker, so even non-nerds might enjoy it.
That's pretty interesting. Maine and Vermont are actually on my relocation state short list. They seem like the last bastions of non-congestion, non-density and non-multiculturalism.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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dualstow wrote:Even though I would rather see better (more) density, I just feel like raising taxes is more practical. The wealthier suburbanites, at least, will put up with it.
How will that work? All that higher property taxes do is makes the location more of a tony, exclusive gated community enclave with superior schools, higher property values, etc.. We don't tax houses and use it for general funds. Sales taxes and gas taxes provide all that other jazz that comes with the trappings.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Pointedstick wrote:Even if you don't want to read all the words, just look at the pictures and the captions.
This is pretty much my version of suburban hell:

Image
Image

Not even a private backyard?!! Fuck that.

When you live that close to the neighbors, its really not that much different than living in attached homes, apartments or condos. You can't be who you really are because of the public etiquette pressure (unless you're just an outright uncaring asshole!). I'd say that is chronically stressful for anyone but extroverts or brown-nosers.

But the biggest advantage of having undeveloped nature around that you can actually go into, is the ability to destress. People just don't seem to get this, which is why they're all fat/obese, insominacs on anti-depressant medications or pain killers or alcohol, etc. Notice a trend here???

P.S. I'm not a fan of density, but boy Japan really does seem to do it right... it feels very inviting and interesting.
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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series

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MachineGhost wrote:Maine and Vermont are actually on my relocation state short list. They seem like the last bastions of non-congestion, non-density and non-multiculturalism.
Have you actually spent any time in Vermont? I grew up there and return almost every year to visit family. Nice place to visit, glad I grew up there, but I wouldn't want to live there again.
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