The political re-alignment of our time

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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:21 pm

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/t ... ves-220151
Neocons declare war on Trump

Donald Trump calls the Iraq War a lie-fueled fiasco, admires Vladimir Putin and says he would be a "neutral" arbiter between Israel and the Palestinians. When it comes to America’s global role he asks, “Why are we always at the forefront of everything?"

Even more than his economic positions, Trump's foreign policy views challenge GOP orthodoxy in fundamental ways. But while parts of the party establishment are resigning themselves or even backing Trump's runaway train, one group is bitterly digging in against him: the hawkish foreign policy elites known as neoconservatives.

In interviews with POLITICO, leading neocons — people who promoted the Iraq war, detest Putin and consider Israel's security non-negotiable — said Trump would be a disaster for U.S. foreign policy and vowed never to support him. So deep is their revulsion that several even say they could vote for Hillary Clinton over Trump in November.
Boy, where's all that loyalty and "staying the course" those guys are always talking about? ::)  They're cutting and running already? ;D

It's just like I said: these people are going to rapidly become Democrats if Trumpism becomes the core of the Republican party.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MediumTex » Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:23 pm

Pointedstick wrote: Let me also mention that the current Democratic party has a couple of great opportunities to prevent all of this by simply bending to accommodate the current climate and embracing a certain amount of populist nativism. Here are two ideas:

1. Cut out all the snobbiness about middle America/flyover country/"dumbfuckistan". Coastal Democrats are incredibly elitist and insulting to about 7/8 of the country, geographically. They don't do Democrats struggling to gain traction in these areas any favors by providing a perfect image of most Democrats as haughty, snobby, stuck-up assholes who live in ivory towers and don't like to get their hands dirty. Democrats should be very competitive in Indiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. They aren't, and this attitude is a big part of the problem.

2. Wholeheartedly embrace unions. I mean seriously. With gusto. Unions are a great, tried-and-true antidote to foreign labor, outsourcing, and stagnant wages, and the most historically union-heavy areas of the country are in the Blue State rust belt. Unions are populist and nativist, too, which could begin to shore up their appeal to independents and conservative Democrats who like those things.

However, I don't expect Democrats to do either of these things because they would contradict the party's relentless shift towards greater cosmopolitanism. It's not in their current DNA.
Yep.

If Elizabeth Warren were the nominee, I think she could easily win.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MediumTex » Wed Mar 02, 2016 7:48 pm

TennPaGa wrote:
moda0306 wrote: I don't know if you can truly have a "populist" party in the US.

1) we are more divided than most first world countries. We are an odd mix of cultures and inconsistent economic preferences.

2) We have a two-party system, so both have to at least try to appeal to pretty populist principles, even if it's done very disingenuously or only towards certain parts of our preference spectrum (social vs economic).
What are the non-Sanders and non-Trump populist elements in today's Democratic and Republican parties?  I don't really see much.
Elizabeth Warren on the Democratic side and Rand Paul on the Republican side.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:04 pm

People on LewRockwell.com many months ago predicted that the neocons would support Clinton.  They are all about Israel and wars undermining its enemies.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MediumTex » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:29 pm

I Shrugged wrote: People on LewRockwell.com many months ago predicted that the neocons would support Clinton.  They are all about Israel and wars undermining its enemies.
That sounds like a good fit.

Hillary has pretty good neocon credentials too--career establishment hack, shameless about putting money before people, Ivy League background, and experience telling the rest of the world what to do while Secretary of State.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MediumTex » Thu Mar 03, 2016 12:46 pm

Desert wrote:
MediumTex wrote:
TennPaGa wrote: What are the non-Sanders and non-Trump populist elements in today's Democratic and Republican parties?  I don't really see much.
Elizabeth Warren on the Democratic side and Rand Paul on the Republican side.
Wouldn't that be a breath of fresh air, compared with what we have now.  Two decent people with very different ideas.  Instead, it appears we will end up with the choice between a raving lunatic and an old lying hag. 

The Romney speech today was near perfect, in my opinion (of course).  He did a great job of clearly and succinctly summarizing all the obvious reasons why Trump shouldn't be president.  I thought he could have included the Hillary/Trump friendship and funding, but in general he covered the key points very well.  It won't have any effect though, because we can all already see Trump's flaws, and some simply choose to ignore or rationalize them.  It's pretty interesting to observe.

Regarding the original topic of this thread, I believe that Trump is a symptom of the self-destruction of the Republican party.  Similar to the "froth" we see in the final stages of a ridiculous bull market, Trump is the signal that irrationality is peaking and the party will soon crumble.  As one pundit said, "The party of Lincoln is on its way to Ford's Theatre."  That in itself doesn't bother me a great deal, because I agree that the flaws of both parties are very concerning.  The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate. 

But, this will all fall on deaf ears, and I'll be assured that I don't understand the Trump phenomenon, and that I need to back a winner, and that the immigrating horde of raping Mexicans must be stopped, and only Trump can do so.  I already understand all that.  I also understand blind anger and willful blindness to a candidate's fatal flaws.  I understand the free-floating hostility and assaults at the Trump rallies.  It all really does make sense to me. 

We'll look back at this period one day and wonder at the madness of crowds, and our kids will mock us for being so blind.  But we aren't really blind; we just want to win.  We want to get on the winning bus and fight back against the "great other" that is oppressing us.  The Mexicans, the Muslims, the Chinese ... they are responsible for our ills, and only Trump can save us now.  So I'm putting on my red hat (red?  really?), and I'm goin' out to get me some justice.
It won't be that bad.

Congress has been very effective in shutting down Obama.  They can and will do the same thing to President Trump if necessary.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MediumTex » Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:02 pm

Simonjester wrote:
Desert wrote:

We'll look back at this period one day and wonder at the madness of crowds, and our kids will mock us for being so blind.  But we aren't really blind; we just want to win.  We want to get on the winning bus and fight back against the "great other" that is oppressing us.  The Mexicans, the Muslims, the Chinese ... they are responsible for our ills, and only Trump can save us now.  So I'm putting on my red hat (red?  really?), and I'm goin' out to get me some justice.
i don't think the deeper anger is with the The Mexicans, the Muslims, the Chinese . its with the establishment.  the democrats focus their "useful idiots" anger at the rich.. the republicans focus their useful idiots on the "not like us"..... but both parties are just collecting votes from the gullible and uninformed....  the deeper anger coming out now is that there is truly no difference between the two party's Rubio and Hillery.. McCain,  Obama.. Bush, Biden... Romney, Warren  ARE ALL COMPLETELY INTERCHANGEABLE and swapping from one to another CHANGES NOTHING...
Yes!

The anger is with the arrogant idiots who continually campaign on one set of promises and then do something totally different once elected.

Trump may do the same thing, but I think that people are so fed up with traditional politicians lying to them that they are willing to take a chance on a non-traditional politician lying to them.

The fact that Trump isn't beholden to any set of special interests for campaign contributions is a legitimate plus for him. 
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:20 pm

Desert wrote: The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.
I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Reub » Thu Mar 03, 2016 2:50 pm

Let me answer for Desert. Trump might say something really foul and possibly make him or a close family member cringe or feel uncomfortable. Does that sum it up?
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MediumTex » Thu Mar 03, 2016 3:13 pm

Reub wrote: Let me answer for Desert. Trump might say something really foul and possibly make him or a close family member cringe or feel uncomfortable. Does that sum it up?
If the people who cringe at some of the things Trump says knew how politics really works in this country, they would be shocked.

I used to work in a congressional office, and when constituents came in there was often a collective eye roll, but when campaign contributors came in everyone was smiling and on their very best behavior.  Everyone knew the people who needed to be kept happy.

Guess what the Member I worked for did when he left Congress?  He became a lobbyist.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:00 pm

Desert wrote:
Pointedstick wrote:
Desert wrote: The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.
I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.
Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring.
Some of those sound like FDR policies.  Some sound like obama policies.  You left out womanizing or I would have mentioned LBJ and JFK and WJC.  I'm detecting a pattern here.  Maybe Trump will end up being a composite of the worst qualities of all those I mentioned rolled into one bad ass narciprez.  ;)

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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:14 pm

Desert wrote: 1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
China and Mexico need us for the strength of their own economies far more than we need them for the strength of ours. Unless their leaders have gotten as dumb as ours, they'll realize this and acquiesce to some of Trump's demands. Besides, spurring domestic industry doesn't seem like the worst thing in the world.

Desert wrote: 2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
And you don't think congress would care to stop it?

Desert wrote: 3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
Does "Religious freedom" mean "freedom of any foreign adherents of different religions to lawfully enter the United States?" I was under the impression that it means "freedom of any citizen or lawful resident of the United States to practice any religion." There seems to be a big difference between those things.

Desert wrote: 4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
We already do this, and have since, like, forever.

Desert wrote: 5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
Did this happen when Obama deported more people than any president in recent history? Did it result in a police state? Did anyone even notice? Evidently you didn't. ;)

Desert wrote: 6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him.
Not really sure what you mean here. Getting mad at journalists and political enemies is attacking the first amendment? I guess Obama shreds the first amendment too, then.

Desert wrote: 7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button.
You really think Trump is crazy? Does a crazy man get this far? You may not like him, but it should be blindingly obvious that he's a canny, intelligent, clever man with a calculated and sane long-term plan for achieving his goals. Someone who's mentally deranged doesn't infiltrate and conquer a major political party of the most powerful nation on earth at precisely the time when it's weakest and most ripe for conquest.

Desert wrote: 1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
What does that mean? Is it at a particularly high level right now? What does it matter what level it's at? Politics seems like a debate club to people like you and me but for most people it's simply a big clash of group interests. No sense in pretending otherwise, really.

Desert wrote: 2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country.
I think he has the potential to increase the derangement and cognitive dissonance among liberals and the people who will make up the new Democratic party. I think blacks and hispanics are actually going to flock to him over time.

Desert wrote: 3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American").
You know, some of my relatives were in Ethiopia recently. People couldn't stop asking them about Trump and wondering if he might become the president. They reported that when they expressed their revulsion at the concept, the Ethiopians were generally surprised at their reaction. They had a positive impression of him, despite their repressive state-controlled media.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by moda0306 » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:16 pm

Desert,

The plus side:

Four to eight years of "money out of politics."

Another way to take money out of politics is to put an angry monkey in a room with a big red shiny button that'll launch a nuke, and call him president.

Funny thing is, that feels like what a Trump presidency would sort of be like.  "Is he... Is he gonna... No he's just throwing his feces at a passer-by!  Whew!"
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:23 pm

Why do you guys talk about Trump's power to launch nuclear weapons as if it's some kind of deadly danger? Do you actually believe that he might fly off the handle and nuke someone for no good reason? Really? Really?

For anyone who does, I will wager a thousand dollars here and now that if he becomes president, he won't. Virtual handshake and everything.

Anyone wanna take that bet? It should be a no-brainer if you're actually worried about it, because it's a win-win situation: If Trump nukes someone, at least you make some money, and if he doesn't, the world remains safe, which is far more valuable than a thousand bucks.

Anyone want to take that bet? Anyone? Because if not, then I'm left to feel that this fear is nothing more than a bunch of un-serious hot air.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by MediumTex » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:26 pm

Mountaineer wrote: Some of those sound like FDR policies.  Some sound like obama policies.  You left out womanizing or I would have mentioned LBJ and JFK and WJC.  I'm detecting a pattern here.  Maybe Trump will end up being a composite of the worst qualities of all those I mentioned rolled into one bad ass narciprez.  ;)
If you are going to talk about womanizing, you've got to put FDR on that list too.

FDR actually died at his girlfriend's house!  :P

The media politely didn't report that tidbit at the time.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Mar 03, 2016 7:20 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Mountaineer wrote: Some of those sound like FDR policies.  Some sound like obama policies.  You left out womanizing or I would have mentioned LBJ and JFK and WJC.  I'm detecting a pattern here.  Maybe Trump will end up being a composite of the worst qualities of all those I mentioned rolled into one bad ass narciprez.  ;)
If you are going to talk about womanizing, you've got to put FDR on that list too.

FDR actually died at his girlfriend's house!  :P

The media politely didn't report that tidbit at the time.
You are correct, I had forgotten about FDR (not to mention Ike but that tryst may have only been when he was stationed in England).  Maybe it would be a shorter list if we discussed non-womanizing presidents.  Or non-LBGTQRXYZ presidents.  ;)

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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:16 pm

Desert wrote: Hey, that bet's a little unfair.  If you lose, we'll all be vaporized and you won't have to pay out.
I realize a thousand might be a bit high, so how about $50? Don't wanna back it up with even fifty bucks?

Desert wrote: But seriously, think of the button as a metaphor for the power of commander in chief.  And yes, that does include a button if the commander in chief gets really offended. 

Now my turn for a question: Do you feel comfortable with Trump as commander in chief?  If so, why?
Yes. Because he is a canny, calculating man who--as we see in the presidential race--uses exactly as much force as is needed to get his way, and no more, but he also knows how to fold, withdraw, and redirect while saving face. Tonight in the debate he was caught in some blatant flip-flopping and he basically turned it around and said, "Okay, so I'm a flip-flopper. I can change my mind when things change or I get new information. Can't you?"

That kind of slipperiness and skill under pressure is totally at odds with the perception some have that he's a giant bully whose omnidirectional belligerence destroys everything around him. In terms of foreign policy, "omnidirectional belligerence" is more or less what Cruz and Rubio are both explicitly advocating. It makes zero sense to fear that the most dovish of the GOP candidates is a psychopathic aggressor when his two lead rivals are actually running on the platform of being psychopathic aggressors!
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by clacy » Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:39 am

The Republican Party is totally fracturing it appears.  I think you have 3 very distinct segments that aren't always aligned on many issues:

1. Conservatives.... These folks are largely voting for Ted Cruz.  The problem they find is that they are at best about 30-40% of the Republican base, and maybe 15-20% of the general population.  I think it would take a truly great and articulate conservative politician win a general.  Cruz has the articulate part, but for some reason he seems beyond slimy and very annoying to most.  This segment compares to the Bernie Sanders/Socialist wing, IMO.  They are the pure-ists that want it all, but don't have a very realistic chance of winning a general because they are too radical to the other side and middle of the road voters.

2. The Establishment wing (aka Corporatists).... This is the Wall Street Journal/K-Street/Wall Street crowd.  They want to outsource ANY and ALL jobs to lower wage workers from 3rd world countries.  They are quick to bomb or invade countries if their corporate sponsors want that.  These folks are far closer to Hillary Clinton than they are Ted Cruz.

3.  The newly emerging Trump-ites..... Hard to say if they can get enough crossover from blue collar Dems.  Frankly the union workers should be flocking in droves to Trump if they are concerned with their future employment prospects.

I have no idea how this will all shakeout
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by rickb » Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:56 am

clacy wrote: The Republican Party is totally fracturing it appears. 
The modern Republican party is an unholy alliance created by Nixon between the country club elites (the "haves") and southern segregationists (generally "have nots", who used to be solidly Democratic) disaffected by LBJ's civil rights agenda.  This alliance seems to now be breaking down.  See http://www.thenation.com/article/why-to ... -strategy/
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by clacy » Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:23 am

rickb wrote:
The modern Republican party is an unholy alliance created by Nixon between the country club elites (the "haves") and southern segregationists (generally "have nots", who used to be solidly Democratic) disaffected by LBJ's civil rights agenda.  This alliance seems to now be breaking down.  See http://www.thenation.com/article/why-to ... -strategy/
I agree with this, but I think pretty much all political parties are unholy alliances.  I think you're starting to see the Dems fracture too, albeit not as badly as the R's.

For instance, blue collar/union Dems have to pretend to care about global warming and the LGBT community, etc, etc.

See Jim Webb for a reference.  If he was more outspoken and bombastic, he would basically be Donald Trump.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:31 am

We really should have a parliamentary system. Then there would be like 8 small parties that people could unashamedly support, but these parties would have to work together if any of them wanted to get anything done.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by clacy » Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:39 am

Pointedstick wrote: We really should have a parliamentary system. Then there would be like 8 small parties that people could unashamedly support, but these parties would have to work together if any of them wanted to get anything done.
I'm ready for that. The two party system is very disenfranchising
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Mar 04, 2016 6:44 pm

Pointedstick wrote: We really should have a parliamentary system. Then there would be like 8 small parties that people could unashamedly support, but these parties would have to work together if any of them wanted to get anything done.
I'm good with that. It could hardly be worse than this.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:16 pm

Image

Shades of 1912. The last time the GOP was this divided we elected the worst President in US History.
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Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:31 pm

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Trumpism is not a philosophy or a movement. It's a cult.
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