The political re-alignment of our time

[Kriegsspiel]

But if any one president illustrates all the great or scary things that can result from monarchy, it's Teddy, IMO.

No, its FDR.  He so effectively neutered the Judicial branch against government overreach and intervention that the modern nation state we've come to love and abhor is traced back directly to him.  So lets compromise and say the Roosevelt brothers were the worst monarchies in our history.

The Roosevelt presidents were not brothers,  they were like fifth cousins. Where are you getting your facts these days?

?

[rickb]

Very curious.  Now I want to know the backstory of why a peanut looks like a Baron Robber.  Were peanuts expensive and only avalable to the super-rich at one time?  Details, please.

There is (of course) a Wikipedia article:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Peanut

[MachineGhost]

The Roosevelt presidents were not brothers,  they were like fifth cousins. Where are you getting your facts these days?

Whoops!  Didn't think too hard about that, but honestly I had no idea they were cousins either.  It's just irrelevant to me (I'm not a woman).

Boy, talk about anti-climatic with Mr. Peanut...

[Pointedstick]

Checking in a year later... how did I do!?

The Democratic party is definitely doubling down on cosmopolitanism. But I don't see many of the changes to the Republican party that I predicted. Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types. He's delegated his legislative agenda to establishment figure Paul Ryan and moved to a more conventional directionless Wilsonian foreign policy.

However, the very public failure to repeal Obamacare definitely reveals the new popularity of big government welfare programs on the right, though: it turned out that there were only like 30 Real Conservatives in the house and the rest of them were totally fine with Obamacare, mostly objecting to the fact that it was passed by the other party.

I think Clacy got it right: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=8232&start=36#p144169 If anything the percentage of "true conservatives" is much much smaller than he guessed.

Looking back, MG was right: I really had drunk the kool-aid. I was still a not-so-secret Trump supporter, and in a somewhat dark place. I used a lot of false equivalence: "Trump might do this bad thing, but Obama/Hillary/Bush/everyone else already does it!" There's an element of truth to that, but trends can worsen, and they have.

[Maddy]

And now. . . [drumroll]. . . Bailouts!
https://www.thenewamerican.com/world-ne ... ek-bailout

[I Shrugged]

I read a blog post today that made some sense regarding Trump's drastic change.
Namely, suggesting that "they" truly have something big on him, or have otherwise shown him what could they could make go wrong for him personally.
Of course it's just an idea, a conspiracy theory to boot, but it would explain it. I don't think any of us have ever seen a change from candidate to president to this degree. It's a matter of which wild explanation is the true one.

[Jack Jones]

Also, character is important, even in a politician. Good things do not flow from a rotten character, no matter what they promise.

This is the thesis of Covey's 7 Habits book. It's an excellent book despite seeming cheesy.

[LC475]

Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types.

I think you are totally right (in a way), but do not know how right you are.

This is the fundamental truth at the root of things: The Congress, the President, all these people are figureheads.

Think about it.

Trump is a CEO. He knows when he's in charge. He knows when he's not. And he definitely, definitely is not. No question about that. So, what is he doing about it?

I choose to believe that he is working on gaining some actual power. He is a very smart individual, and is playing some very complicated games on many different levels. I know, I know, four-dimensional chess is a tired meme about Trump, but I think there's a lot of truth to it. He won the election. Could I have done that? No. He's really, really smart. The things he did during the election, those that I understood, were really, really smart. Hilariously smart in many cases.

A lot of what is looking like incompetence could be, well, intentional incompetence. See here, for instance: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/1588126544 ... healthcare

The Deep State runs things. They have for a long time. Who we elect has long been more or less irrelevant (and trending strongly to less and less as the decades roll on). Window dressing. Bread and circuses. The underground machine keeps on machinating, unaffected. Is Trump trying to stage a coup against the Deep State? Maybe.

I choose to believe that he is. We shall see.

[Pointedstick]

Trump is definitely cunning, and his intuition is incredible. These are both "shoot from the hip" type traits, and Trump is nothing if not spontaneous in taking advantage of currents and forces that are just under the surface that nobody else notices, talks about, or knows what to do with. It works because nobody else in D.C. does this, not even the people who pretend to. But it has its limits if that's the only style of gunslinging you know, and I think we're seeing them.

I don't follow the news much these days, but based on what I hear from the people who are important to me--both Trump lovers and Trump haters--I see a real lack of the kind of thoughtfulness and deliberation that come from significant intelligence. I see a guy who wants to keep on shooting from the hip when the game has changed from quick draw dueling to 1,000 yard marksmanship or a grueling 3-gun match.

[LC475]

Trump is definitely cunning, and his intuition is incredible. These are both "shoot from the hip" type traits, and Trump is nothing if not spontaneous in taking advantage of currents and forces that are just under the surface that nobody else notices, talks about, or knows what to do with. It works because nobody else in D.C. does this, not even the people who pretend to. But it has its limits if that's the only style of gunslinging you know, and I think we're seeing them.

I don't follow the news much these days, but based on what I hear from the people who are important to me--both Trump lovers and Trump haters--I see a real lack of the kind of thoughtfulness and deliberation that come from significant intelligence. I see a guy who wants to keep on shooting from the hip when the game has changed from quick draw dueling to 1,000 yard marksmanship or a grueling 3-gun match.

That is certainly another possible story. As I see it, we really don't know what the real story is, at least I don't, and won't until the eight years is done.

In the end all that matters is results, and on that front there has been very little so far. If at the end of eight years there's still so little -- if, say, the wall still isn't built! -- then sure, he was a failure and a flop. But if he's managed to wrest back some power for the elected officials and do some good things to bring back some sanity to a dysfunctional system, then, well, that's great!

I like Trump. I like Trump a lot. The fact that I think there is any chance whatsoever of him doing anything good is a big change from all the Presidents the whole rest of my life. I believe he really does care about America. He wants to save the country. It may be too late to save. I do not agree with all of his ideas to save it. He is not ideological, he's practical (which may be a good thing). But at least he (says that he) sees some of the same problems I do and (said that he) is going to try to solve them.

So, incompetent charlatan, or hero fighting astronomical odds? Results will in the end tell us which story was true.

I want to echo someone else in this thread too, PointedStick, in that I do love to read the workings of your mind.

[vnatale]

The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.

I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.

Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 

This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny

[Smith1776]

The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.

I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.

Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 

This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny

Holy crap -- we've got an oracle in our midst!

[vnatale]

The thing that does bother me is that the "solution" that the angry horde has chosen will likely cause a lot of harm to this country.  It's not hard to break things, to tear things down.  Like the wise man Colin Powell said to W before he went into Iraq, "If you break it, you own it."  Unfortunately, that's not exactly true, because now W doesn't own it, the American and Iraqi people own it.  Similarly, after Trump augers in (sooner or later), it won't be him that has to foot the cost, it will be Americans, including those of us who have done our best to point out the painfully obvious problems with this candidate.

I'm curious… what specifically do you fear that Trump is going to do to harm the country? Specifics, please.

Here are a few:
1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 

This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny

Holy crap -- we've got an oracle in our midst!

If you roll back to the prior page in this Topic you can read Pointedstick (who initiated this Topic) start off a post with this...

"Re: The political re-alignment of our time

Post
by Pointedstick » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:36 pm
Checking in a year later... how did I do!?

The Democratic party is definitely doubling down on cosmopolitanism. But I don't see many of the changes to the Republican party that I predicted. Trump himself has turned out to be much more incompetent and immature than I thought, and has been unable kick out the neocons and Heritage Foundation types. He's delegated his legislative agenda to establishment figure Paul Ryan and moved to a more conventional directionless Wilsonian foreign policy."

Seems like he was self-declaring himself to NOT be an oracle!

Vinny

Vinny

[Kriegsspiel]

1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 

This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny

Which of those are you counting as correct?

[vnatale]

1. Trade wars with China and Mexico, derailing our fragile economy (and the fragile world economy)
2. A policy of torture, perhaps even worse than what we saw under W ("much worse than water boarding")
3. Ban on muslims entering the U.S., which much like gun laws, simply results in only the criminal elements entering.  Steps like these erode religious freedom. Freedom only for religions we like isn't religious freedom.
4. Targeting non-combatants in war, deliberately.
5. Mass deportation and societal upheaval, with resultant police state.
6. Attacks on first amendment, constant retaliation against those who would merely offend him. 
7. National security degradation as a result of mental instability and resultant poor foreign policy decisions. Craziest hand ever near the nuclear button. 

A few more, that are more general in nature:
1. Lowers the national political discussion to a whole new (low) level.
2. Increase of anger and hatred among racial and economic groups within the U.S., due to irresponsible rhetoric and encouragement of anger and violence (see his rallies).  A general force for increased sadism in the country. 
3. Lowers the U.S. reputation in the world (giving a whole new meaning to the term "ugly American"). 

Those are a few.  There are probably many others.  What's worse, I see very little on the plus side to offset the negatives he'd bring. 

This post by Desert contains the highest percentage (by far) of correct predictions from any of these posts I've been reading from years ago....

Vinny

Which of those are you counting as correct?

Going in order...

First list

1. Partly right -
3. Almost completely correct
6. Fairly correct
7. Correct

Second list

1. 100% correct
2. Mostly correct
3. 100% correct


Vinny

[Pointedstick]

#5 in the first list was also right on the money (of course heartless bastards don't see it and don't mind, but that doesn't make it any less true).

[Pointedstick]

Okay, I guess I'm a heartless bastard, so I'll bite.

Mass deportation of whom? You mean people who are here illegally?

Yes.

And that is somehow a bad thing?

Yes.

Nearly all of the illegal immigrants who are being deported have children or family members who are citizens, or were brought to the USA as children themselves who are being punished for the misdeeds of their parents. Some of them arrived so young that they are 100% American in culture and know nothing of the land they are being sent to. Here's an example: a 41 year-old Iraqi man brought to the USA as a baby, and deported to Iraq last year. He died.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/j ... aoud-dead/

Make no mistake, the government murdered this man. They sent him alone into a foreign warzone where he didn't speak the language, didn't understand the culture, had no personal connections, and would not easily be able to receive needed medicine for a chronic condition. He predictably died soon thereafter. I wonder how many conservatives or libertarians leapt up in righteous outrage at this act of government murder? Probably not a lot. He was a low-quality person, I would have said to myself 5 years ago. A dangerous mentally ill career criminal with diabetes who was in the country illegally. Good riddance; he deserved it. With his death, the world's IQ and gene pool just improved by a little bit.

And thinking those thoughts would have made me a Heartless Bastard. Feeling this way about people is not a good thing. It does not make you tough and hard-nosed and capable of making the difficult choices that life demands. It makes you mean and unattractive and repellent to the everything that's good on this earth. When I was a Heartless Bastard, that's what happened to me. Slowly my world started to get darker and darker as I found that sources of light were no longer attracted to me, and that in fact my toxicity was pushing them away.

It's a bad state of mind to live in. Luckily, it's curable.

And I can't speak for NM, but it isn't a police state where I live or anywhere else I know of in the US. The old Soviet Union was a police state. Please show me the similarities to any US city.

If the whole "children in cages" thing didn't rattle you, then there's nothing I can write that will change your mind. All I can say is that I now believe there are ways to have a humane yet fairly choosy immigration policy/system. We don't have that and clearly that's by design, coming from the top. The system has been dysfunctional for decades, yet it's only in the Trump era that the order seems to have come down to make it as intentionally cruel as possible.

[Mountaineer]

Okay, I guess I'm a heartless bastard, so I'll bite.

Mass deportation of whom? You mean people who are here illegally?

Yes.

And that is somehow a bad thing?

Yes.

Nearly all of the illegal immigrants who are being deported have children or family members who are citizens, or were brought to the USA as children themselves who are being punished for the misdeeds of their parents. Some of them arrived so young that they are 100% American in culture and know nothing of the land they are being sent to. Here's an example: a 41 year-old Iraqi man brought to the USA as a baby, and deported to Iraq last year: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/j ... aoud-dead/

Make no mistake, the government murdered this man. They sent him alone into a foreign warzone where he didn't speak the language, didn't understand the culture, had no personal connections, and would not easily be able to receive needed medicine for a chronic condition. He predictably died soon thereafter. I wonder how many conservatives or libertarians leapt up in righteous outrage at this act of government murder? Probably not a lot. He was a low-quality person, I would have said to myself 5 years ago. A dangerous mentally ill career criminal with diabetes who was in the country illegally. Good riddance; he deserved it. With his death, the world's IQ and gene pool just improved by a little bit.

And thinking those thoughts would have made me a Heartless Bastard. Feeling this way about people is not a good thing. It does not make you tough and hard-nosed and capable of making the difficult choices that life demands. It makes you mean and unattractive and repellent to the everything that's good on this earth. When I was a Heartless Bastard, that's what happened to me. Slowly my world started to get darker and darker as I found that sources of light were no longer attracted to me, and that in fact my toxicity was pushing them away.

It's a bad state of mind to live in. Luckily, it's curable.

And I can't speak for NM, but it isn't a police state where I live or anywhere else I know of in the US. The old Soviet Union was a police state. Please show me the similarities to any US city.

If the whole "children in cages" thing didn't rattle you, then there's nothing I can write that will change your mind. All I can say is that I now believe there are ways to have a humane yet fairly choosy immigration policy/system. We don't have that and clearly that's by design, coming from the top. The system has been dysfunctional for decades, yet it's only in the Trump era that the order seems to have come down to make it as intentionally cruel as possible.

Your comments about light and dark reminded me of Luke, Chapter 11. Particularly verses 33 - 36:

The Light in You
33 “No one after lighting a lamp puts it in a cellar or under a basket, but on a stand, so that those who enter may see the light. 34 Your eye is the lamp of your body. When your eye is healthy, your whole body is full of light, but when it is bad, your body is full of darkness. 35 Therefore be careful lest the light in you be darkness. 36 If then your whole body is full of light, having no part dark, it will be wholly bright, as when a lamp with its rays gives you light.”

[Pointedstick]

Yes, exactly. The light is so much better than the dark. We just need to give ourselves permission to go there.

[flyingpylon]

If the past 3-4 years have taught me anything (not to mention this thread), it’s that everyone we meet is living in “opposite world” on at least one topic. Once you realize that, it’s almost entertaining.

[stuper1]

Make no mistake, the government murdered this man.

I presume his parents brought him here illegally when he was a baby. Make no mistake, his parents murdered him.

Laws have two purposes: punishment and deterrence.

If we don't send people home who came here illegally or were brought here illegally, then there is no deterrence effect. We are just rewarding people for breaking the laws. We could pass an amnesty law. Guess what? In another 20 years we would have to pass another one, because people would see that they get rewarded for breaking the laws.

I guess I'm a heartless bastard too.

[vnatale]

If the past 3-4 years have taught me anything (not to mention this thread), it’s that everyone we meet is living in “opposite world” on at least one topic. Once you realize that, it’s almost entertaining.

You've inspired me to put here a sentence I'd read earlier tonight that I told myself I'd like to memorize. Putting it here will be the first step in getting me to remember it.

It comes from another of James Rickards's excellent (and highly recommended) books - The Death of Money

"It is not surprising that the FOMC members are deeply divided between the contrasting views espoused by Stein and Yellen. Stein is no doubt correct that systemic risk is building up unseen in the banking system through off-balance-sheet transactions and that new bubbles are emerging. Yellen is undoubtedly right that the economy is fundamentally weak and needs all the policy support it can get to avoid outright recession and deflation. The fact that both sides in the debate are correct means both sides are also incorrect to the extent that they fail to incorporate their opponents’ valid points in their own views."

Vinny

[Pointedstick]

Laws have two purposes: punishment and deterrence.

If we don't send people home who came here illegally or were brought here illegally, then there is no deterrence effect. We are just rewarding people for breaking the laws. We could pass an amnesty law. Guess what? In another 20 years we would have to pass another one, because people would see that they get rewarded for breaking the laws.

I guess I'm a heartless bastard too.

This attitude has a logical conclusion: the more publicly cruel the government behaves towards lawbreakers, the greater the deterrent effect. So let's separate children from their illegally-immigrating parents at the border and keep them in such inhumane conditions that five of those children have since died. That's sure to send a message! All in the name of making the country safe for libertarianism for those with citizenship, right?

[Xan]

PS, I have to say I'm a bit surprised to see you pop up and start calling people names. Surely we can have this discussion without people feeling like you're calling them "heartless bastards"?

Besides, if anyone has earned the moniker around here recently.... (emphasis added)

but this is just a trick to weaken your resolve. They know that power and force may be uncomfortable tools for you and they're trying to take advantage of your vulnerability to undermine your self-image. You must harden your heart and crush them remorselessly if you want to preserve your society. There is no other way.

But the light is so much better than the dark, or something. :-)

[Pointedstick]

I don't see the light as incompatible with conflict anymore. Turning towards the light sometimes requires fighting the darkness. Luke Skywalker doesn't become a bad guy because he fights Darth Vader. He does have to struggle a bit with the concept of fighting in the name of good, which is what the cave scene in The Empire Strikes Back is about. But he makes the right decision and becomes a warrior for good.

And I guess I do think that people who are okay with ripping children away from their parents seeking asylum at the border are heartless bastards. There it is.

One of the reasons why I left this place was I didn't want to hang out with those kinds of people online anymore. I didn't like the effect that the exposure had been having on me for all those years. Despite the appeal of intellectual sparring, thought experimentation, and deep discussions that I loved so much, I resisted coming back because I was afraid I would be too weak to resist the lure of Heartless Bastardism that I had fed on for so long. But now I feel like it's actually a different problem: that I'm so incredibly angry at those people for their willingness to constantly excuse the greatest evils I've witnessed in my life that I've lost all ability to empathize and communicate with them.

I guess I'll leave again.