Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

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Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Dec 08, 2015 3:49 pm

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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Greg » Tue Dec 08, 2015 4:06 pm

Interesting. I thought this whole time we kept on saying that we created terrorists ourselves due to our involvement in the middle east. Now this seems to be saying that is not true?
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Reub » Tue Dec 08, 2015 4:38 pm

It was never true.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Dec 08, 2015 5:15 pm

Why should we listen to some anonymous blogger and how do we know he's not using selective evidence himself?

The two examples used are pretty weak.

Did Nazi Germany radicalize anyone against them due to their foreign policy actions?  Case closed.

Is ISIS not radicalizing the West against them with their foreign policy actoins?  Case closed.

So what, evil just spontaneously appears out of nowhere and just decides to fixate on an alleged enemy halfway across the globe?
Terrorists are not created, but born?  Sorry, that goes down the Christian Bullshit Road that I just don't believe in.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Dec 08, 2015 5:24 pm

Desert wrote: I'm starting to lean this way also.  Why aren't there any Vietnamese terrorists?
There were Vietnamese terrorists.  They were called the South.  The North won.  ISIS will too if we just continue to bend over like we've been doing.

There's illegal occupations and blowback terrorism all over the world.  What makes ISIS special is they're an intervenionist doomsday religious cult as opposed to just trying to co-exist peacefully on their own [stolen] land with their neighbors.  Why aren't native Hawaiians terrorists?  Gee, maybe they got pacified by the occupying power?  SPAM tends to do that.  Apostates don't eat pork, so I can't imagine that RIFFF's do. (yes, I'm being sarcastic)

I'm willing to be convinced, but it would be a monumental undertaking.  We have serial wars, revenge and blowback going all the way back to the Magna Carta at the very least.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Greg » Wed Dec 09, 2015 7:51 am

TennPaGa wrote:
As a group, they were older, more conservative, and more skeptical of U.S. motives. They were less urban, less wealthy, and substantially less secular. But to my astonishment, none of the individuals I interviewed drew a causal relationship between U.S. drone strikes and al Qaeda recruiting. Indeed, of the 40 men in this cohort, only five believed that U.S. drone strikes were helping al Qaeda more than they were hurting it.
Both studies are limited because they are based on interviews not data on recruitment, attacks and American drone activity.
So, basically, the George Costanza analysis.

Then again, it would certainly be in the interest of people in power (and in the interest of those who have predisposition to harm others) to believe that their actions have no consequences.

Then again, maybe I'm being to harsh.  Perhaps the appropriate conclusion to draw is that the golden rule is a steaming pile of bullshit.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Dec 09, 2015 10:45 am

TennPaGa wrote:
As a group, they were older, more conservative, and more skeptical of U.S. motives. They were less urban, less wealthy, and substantially less secular. But to my astonishment, none of the individuals I interviewed drew a causal relationship between U.S. drone strikes and al Qaeda recruiting. Indeed, of the 40 men in this cohort, only five believed that U.S. drone strikes were helping al Qaeda more than they were hurting it.
Both studies are limited because they are based on interviews not data on recruitment, attacks and American drone activity.
So, basically, the George Costanza analysis.

However, it would certainly be in the interest of people in power (and in the interest of those who have predisposition to harm others) to believe that their actions have no consequences.

Then again, maybe I'm being to harsh.  Perhaps the appropriate conclusion to draw is that the golden rule is a steaming pile of bullshit.
No, the appropriate conclusion to draw is that although everyone wants others to follow the Golden Rule, a lot of people think they themselves are exempt.

If I could figure out why that is, I might be able to suggest a solution.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:58 pm

It seems like we're really asking two different questions.
"What is the reason why the terrorists want to kill us?"
"Does killing terrorists (and possibly collateral damage) create more terrorists?"

It seems eminently possible that military operations cause a small number of people to become terrorists, but the vast majority do not choose this path, or in fact turn against terrorism. I suppose that could make both suppositions true.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by jafs » Wed Dec 09, 2015 1:14 pm

It seems crazy to ignore the role that our military operations in other countries plays in creating anti-American sentiment.
Simonjester wrote: Its not just military policy the whole of our political, economic (and military) interactions have been ham-handed, not finding a large percentage of people who hate the US because we bombed his uncle etc. doesn't surprise me... the individual living there may not understand it, but finding large numbers who hate the US because we supported a dictator, toppled a dictator, bought oil, didn't by oil, and generally messed with the whole place, with little forward thinking., wouldn't uprise me much at all, the possibility that we have had a hand in leaving them with large populations of uneducated, easily propagandized, people who are susceptible to cultish religions, and generally angry about their lives, is not a stretch

but we are not the prime cause
they have a messed up society from its own core... and a lot of people not equipped to think critically about why..... the book says "kill infidels" so they aim at us... they aren't going to question the book or the corruption and suffering that they inflict on themselves and each other at all,
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Fred » Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:10 pm

Desert wrote:
Reub wrote: It was never true.
I'm starting to lean this way also.  Why aren't there any Vietnamese terrorists?
I think a better example is Cambodia. We dropped a half million tons of bombs and killed about 300,000 in the so-called secret wars and though this is not what created the Khmer Rouge, it is believed that resentment against the American bombing caused many to join the revolution and probably helped to radicalize them even further. 

As to why there were never any Vietnamese or Cambodian terrorists, that's a good question. I remember being taught back then that we had to go kill them over there before they came and killed us over here but I guess it turned out they didn't think like we do after all. Islamic terrorists, on the other hand, do.
Last edited by Fred on Wed Dec 09, 2015 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Kbg » Thu Dec 10, 2015 8:26 am

I am now retired but from 2001 to this past April, I spent most of my professional career involved with the Middle East so I think I know it better than most.  Most experts will tell you that the issue is  complex and I agree with that 100%. Most difficult things in the world are complex, but news/journalism/blogging is not written for complex. It is written for simple.  So here's my short list of factors that contribute to what is going on.

1. The internet/social media...people in the Middle East know that the ME sucks as compared to a lot of the rest of the world

2. Dictatorial countries and methods

3. The diffused nature/authority structure of Islam/how the Koran and Hadith are and can be interpreted

4. Lack of social and economic opportunity...wide spread unemployment

5. A huge youth group/bulge...crime and radicalism historically are associated with large youth populations

6. The tribal nature of most of the cultures there

7. The well known "commodity economy" effect

8. Israeli and US ties

9. US presence in the Middle East and the fact that we are the world's main power

10. Personal negative experience with US military members or operations

11. Government corruption

12. Sunni - Shia historical animosity/competition

The list above is not in any prioritized order but honestly I would put hatred of the US in the lower third of the list for the majority of the population. No doubt for some individuals it is at the top of their list depending on what happened to them individually (or a member(s) of their family).  The fact is young people get disaffected for a lot of reasons and turn to radical belief systems. From the 20s-80s it was communism and for our age it is radical Islam.

As a caution to the board, the US has been WAY more successful than Europe in integrating its Islamic population. This is generally believed to be a result of better economic opportunity, greater tolerance and the pure power of American cultural assimilation.  Going anti is likely not a successful strategy over the long term...assuming you care about results vice your personal political opinions and views.

I have no doubt that over the longer haul this stuff will delegitimize itself. It is not an attractive ideology to the vast majority of the earth's population. Of course, the timelines are probably longer than any of us would want. It could last a really long time like communism did or be relatively brief like national socialism was...all depends on the degree and scale to which they piss off the rest of the planet.

Peace out.
Last edited by Kbg on Thu Dec 10, 2015 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 10, 2015 9:32 am

I would never argue against the obvious: that terrorists often claim that our misadventures in Iraq are to blame for their actions. However, I can't reconcile this with the fact that those same terrorists also kill Muslims indiscriminately.

Kbg, great post. Are you familiar with 'The Closed Circle' by David Pryce-Jones? If so, do you find it to be accurate? Unfair? Somewhere in between?
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Desert wrote: I'm starting to lean this way also.  Why aren't there any Vietnamese terrorists?
There were Vietnamese terrorists.  They were called the South.  The North won.  ISIS will too if we just continue to bend over like we've been doing.
I think Desert is asking why there aren't Vietnamese terrorists going after the U.S.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by jafs » Thu Dec 10, 2015 9:46 am

Yes, it's complex.

And that makes it hard to sort out and deal with in an effective way.

But, even if our misdeeds aren't a main cause of the problem (I don't know if that's true or not), we could still improve how we operate, which would be a good thing.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 10, 2015 10:10 am

TennPaGa wrote:
dualstow wrote: I would never argue against the obvious: that terrorists often claim that our misadventures in Iraq are to blame for their actions. However, I can't reconcile this with the fact that those same terrorists also kill Muslims indiscriminately.
Why would you expect that the two facts ought to be reconcilable?  Like Kbg said, it's complex.
That's just my way of saying that people who spend all their time blaming us, ourselves, for Al Qaeda and ISIS are full of shit. We are merely a piece of the puzzle.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Kbg » Thu Dec 10, 2015 6:03 pm

dualstow wrote: Kbg, great post. Are you familiar with 'The Closed Circle' by David Pryce-Jones? If so, do you find it to be accurate? Unfair? Somewhere in between?
I have not read it so I looked around for some reviews/commentary. I think it is probably more wrong than right, but there are several other cultures that have similar attributes. A couple of thoughts.  There are substantive differences between urban and rural, rich and poor that shape attitudes similar to the way they do in the US (Liberal/Conservative). There are other parts of the world that are every bit as much of a dog eat dog world as the ME and the far east is as much tied up with face as the ME....though I think it is lessening in the FE over time.

In short, while it points out aspects of ME culture/society that I think are accurate I don't think it is a strong explanation of what is going on. I hate to keep going to it, but communism came out of the perception of a very messed up world that was jump started by WWI and the Great Depression. Basic unfairness/injustice combined with economic deprivation piss people off and make them susceptible to radical approaches...personally I think that is what is really going on for those in the Middle East.  For those who are Westerners and going that route, it is basically alienation with the larger society and jihadism is the sexy radical thing of the 21st century. If there was some completely different radically ideology I think the same type of folks would be gravitating to it.

I actually feel bad for the people there...it IS messed up (at least in my view).
Last edited by Kbg on Thu Dec 10, 2015 6:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 10, 2015 7:52 pm

Ha, ok. Maybe take a pass on it if you haven't read the book but only the comments on it.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:55 am

Kbg wrote: I am now retired but from 2001 to this past April, I spent most of my professional career involved with the Middle East so I think I know it better than most.  Most experts will tell you that the issue is  complex and I agree with that 100%. Most difficult things in the world are complex, but news/journalism/blogging is not written for complex. It is written for simple.  So here's my short list of factors that contribute to what is going on.

1. The internet/social media...people in the Middle East know that the ME sucks as compared to a lot of the rest of the world

2. Dictatorial countries and methods

3. The diffused nature/authority structure of Islam/how the Koran and Hadith are and can be interpreted

4. Lack of social and economic opportunity...wide spread unemployment

5. A huge youth group/bulge...crime and radicalism historically are associated with large youth populations

6. The tribal nature of most of the cultures there

7. The well known "commodity economy" effect

8. Israeli and US ties

9. US presence in the Middle East and the fact that we are the world's main power

10. Personal negative experience with US military members or operations

11. Government corruption

12. Sunni - Shia historical animosity/competition

The list above is not in any prioritized order but honestly I would put hatred of the US in the lower third of the list for the majority of the population. No doubt for some individuals it is at the top of their list depending on what happened to them individually (or a member(s) of their family).  The fact is young people get disaffected for a lot of reasons and turn to radical belief systems. From the 20s-80s it was communism and for our age it is radical Islam.

As a caution to the board, the US has been WAY more successful than Europe in integrating its Islamic population. This is generally believed to be a result of better economic opportunity, greater tolerance and the pure power of American cultural assimilation.  Going anti is likely not a successful strategy over the long term...assuming you care about results vice your personal political opinions and views.

I have no doubt that over the longer haul this stuff will delegitimize itself. It is not an attractive ideology to the vast majority of the earth's population. Of course, the timelines are probably longer than any of us would want. It could last a really long time like communism did or be relatively brief like national socialism was...all depends on the degree and scale to which they piss off the rest of the planet.

Peace out.
I thought I'd resurrect this post.  It seems the radical Islam crew is indeed becoming more adept at pissing off the rest of the planet.  Any thoughts on when "enough will be enough"?

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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Jake » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:50 pm

I think the real meaning of the question in the OP is obfuscated by jargon language like "radicalized" and "hostile foreign policy actions". A less foggy way of posing the question would be:
Does murdering people in foreign lands lead to some people there becoming more violent/aggressive/murderous?

My answer would be this: Humans are not billiard balls. Of course you can't predict their exact responses. But murdering people is still wrong, whoever does it.
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:51 pm

I would certainly agree with that. :)
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Re: Are people radicalized by hostile foreign policy actions initiated against them?

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:49 pm

You guys need to go read this for insight...

http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ot ... of-arabia/
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