Ozzy's juicy portfolio

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rickb
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Ozzy's juicy portfolio

Post by rickb »

From another thread
ozzy wrote: Mathjak-
I totally agree that Small/Midcap increase long-term performance.  Which is why I use them in my JuicyPP:  http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html

Tyler, PointedStick-
Here's the results off Small/Mid vs Large (S&P500).  Chart below shows the difference from 1972-2014.  I realize that past performance does not predict future returns, but there are fundamental reasons why Small/Mid perform better, mainly their enormous growth potential.
[img width=600]http://tightwadweb.com/comparison.jpg[/img]
This looks interesting, but do you really have 88% of your money in iShares funds?

I think I'd take physical possession of the gold and hold actual long term bonds rather than TLT - reducing the amount in iShares funds to 40%. 

Actually, this much is still kind of scary.  I'd perhaps replace IEFA with VTMGX (or FSIIX/FSIVX).  This would get the iShares portion down to 25%, which is still well beyond how much of my money I'd trust with BlackRock - but it's at least not completely insane.
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ozzy
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Re: Ozzy's juicy portfolio

Post by ozzy »

Hi rickb,

Thanks for the feedback.  I'm personally comfortable with my heavy dose of iShares.  That said, I certainly have no problem with your suggestion of using similar funds. 

Depending on your broker, various funds are commission-free, so that needs to be considered too, especially if you're in the accumulation phase and making frequent contributions (me).

And I do personally own some physical gold/silver in addition to my 15% weighting in IAU.
Last edited by ozzy on Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tyler
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Re: Ozzy's juicy portfolio

Post by Tyler »

That's a pretty nice looking portfolio.  If I squint and think about the bands I can see the PP resemblance, with the cash poured into international stocks. 

[img width=300]http://s18.postimg.org/m6gdvrk55/Juicy_PP.jpg[/img]

Larry Swedroe has written a lot about tilting the stock allocation towards mid and small caps to justify reducing stock exposure overall.  I can appreciate that perspective.  The one thing I'd caution against is over-fitting using back-testing to identify the optimal portfolio for the past that may not perform as well in the future.  The same portfolio with 37% TSM instead of the mid and small cap tilt looks pretty darn similar (try it).  The CAGRs are a little lower, but 90% of the good work is done in the broad diversification between LTTs and Gold and only the last 10% is really about slicing and dicing the stocks.

In any case, nice work! Stick with the plan, and I'm sure you'll do fine. 
Last edited by Tyler on Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ozzy
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Re: Ozzy's juicy portfolio

Post by ozzy »

Thanks Tyler.
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