Portfolio Charts

[Tyler]

I know that advertising a personal project is generally bad form on a message board, but hopefully I've contributed enough to earn an exception.  And I have a feeling many here will find it helpful.

Over the past few weeks I've been working diligently to get some of my favorite visualization spreadsheets to a point where they are more user friendly.  Today I'm happy to announce that you can use them for yourself on PortfolioCharts.com.  It's a site I threw together to let other people play around with asset allocations the same way I can.  It's really just a side project and I stuck to readily available tools my non-software self could understand, but hopefully people here find it useful.

Feel free to suggest improvements, sample portfolios, or new tools you'd like to see.  I can't guarantee I'll get to them all, but I'm happy to take a few requests.

Enjoy!

[iwealth]

Phenomenal! Thanks for doing this. And sharing.

[Pointedstick]

Lovely! Really incredibly job. A suggestion for more assets: 8 & 10 year treasuries and investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds of various durations.

[Greg]

Very cool stuff. Although on mobile the image for the p.o. in lazy portfolios shows 60% for stocks instead of 25%

[Tyler]

Very cool stuff. Although on mobile the image for the p.o. in lazy portfolios shows 60% for stocks instead of 25%

Good catch!  At least that was an easy fix. 

[Greg]

Very cool stuff. Although on mobile the image for the p.o. in lazy portfolios shows 60% for stocks instead of 25%

Good catch!  At least that was an easy fix. 

Hah dang trying on a phone. I meant to write p.p. not p.o. I wasn't being pissed off in lazy portfolios

[Mountaineer]

Would it be possible for us old retired guys to show something like the Vanguard Retirement Income fund, maybe even on the lazy portfolio page?  I look at it compared to the PP from time to time.

Great site, but the way.  Thanks.

... M

[Tyler]

Would it be possible for us old retired guys to show something like the Vanguard Retirement Income fund, maybe even on the lazy portfolio page?  I look at it compared to the PP from time to time.

Great site, but the way.  Thanks.

... M

VTINX? Something like that is hard to model in this tool because it hasn't been around that long.  But you can get kinda close by looking at the core holdings.  20% TSM, 10% Total Intl, 55% Total Bond, and 15% TIPS isn't perfect but seems in the ballpark based on the current VTINX profile.

[frugal]

Inteligent Tyler!

Let me know which portfolios are you using for yourself. A mix?

Are you waiting to retire early?

All the best and congrats!

[Tyler]

I personally use the Permanent Portfolio.  The more I study it, the more I like it for my needs.  I am enjoying ER right now -- it gave me the time to put this together. 

[Tyler]

FYI -- I've received several requests for expanding the Pixel calculator to the full version rather than cropping it at ten years.  The new version is now up.  Enjoy!

[Mountaineer]

FYI -- I've received several requests for expanding the Pixel calculator to the full version rather than cropping it at ten years.  The new version is now up.  Enjoy!

Fantastic!  Thanks.

... Mountaineer

[frugal]

I personally use the Permanent Portfolio.  The more I study it, the more I like it for my needs.  I am enjoying ER right now -- it gave me the time to put this together. 

Tyler!

Do you have any studies about EU-PP?



All the best.

[Tyler]

Do you have any studies about EU-PP?

Not yet.  But when I do, I will be sure to post them here!

[MachineGhost]

100% into TSM only gives you 1% more CAGR than the PP, but increases the sequence of returns risk to a whopping 13 years?  HAHAHAHAHA.

All those Boglehead cultists are going to get crushed some day.  CRUSHED.

Snarky and proud I remain.

[PP67]

Tyler, awesome charts!...  There isn't a day that goes by where I am not glancing at a printout of one of your funnel charts!...  I find the funnel chart very soothing when the wheels seem to be flying off the wagon...

One suggestions: Would it be difficult to post the last year few years of performance on the funnel chart (ie last 12 months under Year Invested 1, last 24 months under Year Invested 2 and so on sort of like you do on your Hurricane charts.  The would give an indication of how the portfolio has been performing recently relative to the full 42 year history.  I've been posting these values by hand (taken from PeaktoTrough) but it seems like you have those values adjusted for inflation.  For instance, per PeaktoTrough, the last 12 months CAGR is -1.32, the 2 yr CAGR is +3.62, the 3 yr CAGR is +1.18, 4 yr CAGR is +2.17 and 5 yr CAGR is +4.44 which if you post it on the funnel chart (a dot for each year) all fall within the range of the full life PP (albeit on the lower range at this time).  To me, it is an indication that the portfolio is still operating within the range one could expect.

Again, great charts!

[lazyboy]

Thanks, Tyler. Is there a way to show VWINX: Vanguard Wellesley Income? It has done very well as conservative portfolio over its lifetime since 1970. I remember a post by Medium Tex a few years back about its stability and comparing it favorably as an option for those uncomfortable with the PP. I see a problem, though, if you are excluding managed funds from your presentation of all weather portfolios.

[MachineGhost]

Thanks, Tyler. Is there a way to show VWINX: Vanguard Wellesley Income? It has done very well as conservative portfolio over its lifetime since 1970. I remember a post by Medium Tex a few years back about its stability and comparing it favorably as an option for those uncomfortable with the PP. I see a problem, though, if you are excluding managed funds from your presentation of all weather portfolios.

It got killed in the 1970's so nothing to see there, folks!

[Tyler]

The very first versions of the calculators had Wellington and Wellesley as options, but I removed them to focus squarely on asset allocation where the holdings are more transparent.  I've considered adding some special calculators for certain well-established funds like that. 

In any case, here's VWINX with and without a side of gold.  IMHO, it's a nice fund.

[img width=300]http://i64.tinypic.com/2q0ow2d.jpg[/img]

[img width=300]http://i67.tinypic.com/2jf5mg.jpg[/img]

[Tyler]

Tyler, awesome charts!...  There isn't a day that goes by where I am not glancing at a printout of one of your funnel charts!...  I find the funnel chart very soothing when the wheels seem to be flying off the wagon...

One suggestions: Would it be difficult to post the last year few years of performance on the funnel chart (ie last 12 months under Year Invested 1, last 24 months under Year Invested 2 and so on sort of like you do on your Hurricane charts.  The would give an indication of how the portfolio has been performing recently relative to the full 42 year history.  I've been posting these values by hand (taken from PeaktoTrough) but it seems like you have those values adjusted for inflation.  For instance, per PeaktoTrough, the last 12 months CAGR is -1.32, the 2 yr CAGR is +3.62, the 3 yr CAGR is +1.18, 4 yr CAGR is +2.17 and 5 yr CAGR is +4.44 which if you post it on the funnel chart (a dot for each year) all fall within the range of the full life PP (albeit on the lower range at this time).  To me, it is an indication that the portfolio is still operating within the range one could expect.

Again, great charts!

That's a really cool idea!  I'll look into it.

[MachineGhost]

Gold is magick.



http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/pe ... #msg136747

[lazyboy]

The very first versions of the calculators had Wellington and Wellesley as options, but I removed them to focus squarely on asset allocation where the holdings are more transparent.  I've considered adding some special calculators for certain well-established funds like that. 

In any case, here's VWINX with and without a side of gold.  IMHO, it's a nice fund.

[img width=300]http://i64.tinypic.com/2q0ow2d.jpg[/img]

[img width=300]http://i67.tinypic.com/2jf5mg.jpg[/img]

Much thanks, Tyler,  the side of gold does look like magic.

[Pointedstick]

…As long as you notice how that magic turned a whole bunch of dark green squares into light green ones. These are the times that will try people like Budd because they reflect gold dragging down the portfolio, not holding it up. That seems to be the bargain you make when you add gold to turn the red squares into white or green ones in order to reduce sequence-of-returns risk.

[MachineGhost]

…As long as you notice how that magic turned a whole bunch of dark green squares into light green ones. These are the times that will try people like Budd because they reflect gold dragging down the portfolio, not holding it up. That seems to be the bargain you make when you add gold to turn the red squares into white or green ones in order to reduce sequence-of-returns risk.

That's not what dragged budd down.  It's the sequence of returns risk where all the combined assets do not produce a positive return.  If he had not been advised to lump sum invest and instead dollar cost averaged in over the worst sequence period, he would have dealt with this year much more calmly.

And it is historically unprecendented for the PP to have a losing year, a winning year and a losing year in a row.  That is out of sample behavior so that is a warning that old operating assumptions may fall apart.

[Jack Jones]

And it is historically unprecendented for the PP to have a losing year, a winning year and a losing year in a row.  That is out of sample behavior so that is a warning that old operating assumptions may fall apart.

And if it goes losing, winning, losing, winning, you all better head for the hills!