It's all about China

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Re: It's all about China

Post by Xan » Fri Sep 03, 2021 3:46 pm

When I initially saw that, I thought "they're going to take over the world and nobody can stop them".

There's no way we could implement such a policy here, other than it being done by individual parents (which frankly would be a great idea), and I think it's going to work. We're going to be drooling slobs addicted to video games and they'll be out achieving things.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:01 pm

Xan wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 3:46 pm
When I initially saw that, I thought "they're going to take over the world and nobody can stop them".

There's no way we could implement such a policy here, other than it being done by individual parents (which frankly would be a great idea), and I think it's going to work. We're going to be drooling slobs addicted to video games and they'll be out achieving things.
So true. Say what you want about chinese collectivism, but it seems to me that the chinese have an easier time getting everyone to march in the same direction. Yes, that is dangerous to individual liberties and freedom, but the economic, military, and existential threat from the machine that is china is real.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by D1984 » Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:02 pm

Xan wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 3:46 pm
When I initially saw that, I thought "they're going to take over the world and nobody can stop them".

There's no way we could implement such a policy here, other than it being done by individual parents (which frankly would be a great idea), and I think it's going to work. We're going to be drooling slobs addicted to video games and they'll be out achieving things.
They aren't going to take over anything if they can't get their TFR above 1.30 or 1.31 (and apparently it's still falling from there despite the new three-child policy).

I don't see the problem with video games (although I don't play them myself). From some of the comments on here it makes it seem like everybody in the USA and the rest of the Western world is a video game addict who never does anything else. For example (and just off the top of my head), which country brought us the MRNA vaccines, Tesla, the Internet/World Wide Web, the smartphone, Boston Dynamics' robots, Deepmind/AlphaGo and other high-end AI software, etc? Was it China? If their tech industry is so world-beating and advanced vs the free world's why exactly do they keep trying to copy/steal our IP....wouldn't the rest of the world be trying to steal/copy theirs instead?

America (and the rest of the free world) have certain advantages. A collectivist society (and this applies not just to China being Communist/totalitarian/authoritarian but to--and I admit this is a stereotype and not true in the case of each and every individual--but to what seems to be the mindset in Asian countries/cultures in general) that encourages harmony, groupthink, deference to existing authority, and conformity and isn't as favorable to risk-taking, doing your own thing, being willing to stand out from the pack, and being willing to try new/innovative ways of doing things will be at a disadvantage to a society that is more open to them.

I'd honestly be more worried about either:

A. China deciding it's better to start a war (over Taiwan or otherwise) in the next 3-10 years while it still has a large enough military-age male population vs the US/Taiwan/our allies i.e. before most of its population is too old to be prime military material, or,

B. China using its authoritarian system to simply outbreed us (the US and the free world in general) in terms of raw human intelligence; IIRC studies have shown that from roughly 57 to 80% of IQ is inheritable. If China disallows anyone with an IQ of less than, say, 130 from having kids (and conversely, forces/conscripts/outright bribes a certain percentage of its women to be surrogate mother broodmares of 15 or 20 super-intelligent kids over their breeding lifetimes.....note that this would also go a long way towards solving their TFR issues) and we don't, in five or six generations the difference could be rather stark......
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Re: It's all about China

Post by glennds » Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:11 pm

D1984 wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:02 pm


A. China deciding it's better to start a war (over Taiwan or otherwise) in the next 3-10 years while it still has a large enough military-age male population vs the US/Taiwan/our allies i.e. before most of its population is too old to be prime military material, or,
This assumes the next major war will be fought using military manpower and weaponry.
Read the book or watch the documentary The Perfect Weapon which lays out a compelling case that the next war will be a cyber war.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:34 pm

Hey, don’t knock video games. Those players are are future drone operators. ;-)
I haven’t played since the 80’s myself.
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Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:37 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:34 pm
There's a paywall, but I read a Foreign Affairs article about China seizing Taiwan in 3-5 years. Never thought this would happen in my lifetime.
I can see that happening. And I don't think the US has the stomach to enter an all out war with China to defend Taiwan, even considering the dependency that the US has on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry.

I think China would provide a false option to allow the US to save face and the US would take it.

Interesting times.
The article was very convincing. There are all kinds of things they can do. They can spend a lot of time in the Strait without attacking, and one day they’ll make their move after we’re exhausted. It could be largely bloodless.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by vnatale » Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:19 pm

glennds wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:11 pm

D1984 wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:02 pm



A. China deciding it's better to start a war (over Taiwan or otherwise) in the next 3-10 years while it still has a large enough military-age male population vs the US/Taiwan/our allies i.e. before most of its population is too old to be prime military material, or,



This assumes the next major war will be fought using military manpower and weaponry.
Read the book or watch the documentary The Perfect Weapon which lays out a compelling case that the next war will be a cyber war.


That was exactly my reaction after I read the above. Thanks for writing a response far better than I would have.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by vnatale » Fri Sep 03, 2021 7:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:34 pm

Hey, don’t knock video games. Those players are are future drone operators. ;-)



A few years ago I asked someone who moved into the highly lucrative profession of being a crane operator if the job required a lot of physical strength.

He said no. An average woman could also do it (as opposed to those professions where there are almost no women due to the physical strength demands).

He surprised me by telling me that those who are good at video games would be good at his job.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:05 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:34 pm
Mark Leavy wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:37 pm
I can see that happening. And I don't think the US has the stomach to enter an all out war with China to defend Taiwan, even considering the dependency that the US has on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry.

I think China would provide a false option to allow the US to save face and the US would take it.

Interesting times.
The article was very convincing. There are all kinds of things they can do. They can spend a lot of time in the Strait without attacking, and one day they’ll make their move after we’re exhausted. It could be largely bloodless.
Another good video from China Uncensored touches on a few things. First, a Reuters article mentions that Chinese spies in Taiwan could launch a decapitation strike to take over the island.. so maybe bloodless. At least for the Taiwanese, and at least at the start :o But, if America tries to defend Taiwan, they may have the ability (electronic warfare/cyber or, not mentioned in this video, missile swarms) to incapacitate our ships*, which would probably not be bloodless.

The video also talks about another semiconductor company that China is attempting to buy, but the Committee On Foreign Investment in the US might block the deal since they're both on the NYSE. The economic warfare is heating up on the semiconductor front!

*Two recommended novels on futurewar with China: 2034 by Stavridis, and Twilight's Last Gleaming by Greer. I thought Twilight's Last Gleaming was the better of the two.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by glennds » Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:49 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:05 am
dualstow wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 6:34 pm
Mark Leavy wrote:
Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:37 pm
I can see that happening. And I don't think the US has the stomach to enter an all out war with China to defend Taiwan, even considering the dependency that the US has on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry.

I think China would provide a false option to allow the US to save face and the US would take it.

Interesting times.
The article was very convincing. There are all kinds of things they can do. They can spend a lot of time in the Strait without attacking, and one day they’ll make their move after we’re exhausted. It could be largely bloodless.
Another good video from China Uncensored touches on a few things. First, a Reuters article mentions that Chinese spies in Taiwan could launch a decapitation strike to take over the island.. so maybe bloodless. At least for the Taiwanese, and at least at the start :o But, if America tries to defend Taiwan, they may have the ability (electronic warfare/cyber or, not mentioned in this video, missile swarms) to incapacitate our ships*, which would probably not be bloodless.

The video also talks about another semiconductor company that China is attempting to buy, but the Committee On Foreign Investment in the US might block the deal since they're both on the NYSE. The economic warfare is heating up on the semiconductor front!

*Two recommended novels on futurewar with China: 2034 by Stavridis, and Twilight's Last Gleaming by Greer. I thought Twilight's Last Gleaming was the better of the two.
For some more info on the US semiconductor dependency on Taiwan, and the fragile nature of the semiconductor supply chain in general, here is the recent segment from 60 Minutes on the topic: https://www.cbsnews.com/video/60minutes-2021-08-29/

I did not realize that the most advanced chip business goes from companies like Apple to Taiwan not solely for cost reasons but because the capability to produce the most sophisticated chips does not even exist in the US, from a knowledge base standpoint. The Intel CEO concedes so in the interview. Could you imagine the effect if the Taiwanese semiconductor industry was cut off or rationed like OPEC of the 1970s?
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Tortoise » Tue Sep 07, 2021 12:47 pm

glennds wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 11:49 am
I did not realize that the most advanced chip business goes from companies like Apple to Taiwan not solely for cost reasons but because the capability to produce the most sophisticated chips does not even exist in the US, from a knowledge base standpoint. The Intel CEO concedes so in the interview. Could you imagine the effect if the Taiwanese semiconductor industry was cut off or rationed like OPEC of the 1970s?
That's why I find it interesting that people seem to focus on how the US would react if China were to invade Taiwan.

The US isn't the only nation that's critically dependent on Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Practically all technologically advanced nations are.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by dualstow » Tue Sep 07, 2021 2:36 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:05 am
Another good video from China Uncensored touches on a few things. First, a Reuters article mentions that Chinese spies in Taiwan could launch a decapitation strike to take over the island.. so maybe bloodless. At least for the Taiwanese, and at least at the start :o But, if America tries to defend Taiwan, they may have the ability (electronic warfare/cyber or, not mentioned in this video, missile swarms) to incapacitate our ships*, which would probably not be bloodless.
The Foreign Affairs piece talks about everything from signal jamming to, “they have the best ballistic and cruise missiles in the world” and could destroy American bases in the Pacific within days. I swear I read an article in the same magazine in 2018 saying that China had a ways to go. Hmm, I guess they caught up.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by pp4me » Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:10 pm

My wife worked in a semiconductor factory in Taiwan shortly before I met her. She thought it was a lot better job than the one she previously had in Hong Kong as a domestic servant (aka maid) where her employers treated her like dirt. She liked it even better than any job she had in the Philippines which were few and hard to come by. I think the main reason she thought so was because of the comradery of other Filipinos living in dorms together in Taiwan.

That was over 20 years ago. Back then it was an assembly line job that you can catch glimpses of in the movie Baraka (or was it Samsara). Not back breaking work but probably not a job many Americans would want to do, illegal aliens excepted. I would expect it to be much more automated today but you never know.

Today she works as a medical technologist, finally able to use the bachelor's degree she obtained in the Philippines after studying her ass off and passing the test in Florida. I try to talk her into retiring at age 55 but I can understand why she doesn't want to.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:23 pm

Who here has an above market allocation to China in their portfolio?
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:23 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Sep 08, 2021 3:23 pm
Who here has an above market allocation to China in their portfolio?
Funny you should ask, Smithers:

Is China really destined to be the biggest economy in the world?

And

Is China's catch-up growth over?
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:26 pm

I don't, by the way.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:33 pm

A former GlaxoSmithKline Plc scientist pleaded guilty on Monday to conspiring to steal trade secrets from the British drug manufacturer to benefit a Chinese pharmaceutical company.

Lucy Xi, 44, entered her plea in Philadelphia federal court, becoming the fourth person to admit to wrongdoing in connection with a scheme to misuse GSK's trade secrets to benefit Renopharma, which received financial support from the Chinese government.
. . .
According to an indictment, from 2012 to 2016, Xi and another GSK scientist, Yu Xue, stole confidential information from GSK about products that were under development and then provided the data for use by Renopharma.

Prosecutors said Xue, along with co-defendants Tao Li and Yan Mei, created Renopharma in Nanjing, China, to market and sell the stolen information as its own research and to obtain patents for Renopharma versions of GSK's products.
. . .
Xue, her sister, Tian Xue, and Li have previously pleaded guilty. Mei resides in China and is considered a fugitive by the U.S. government. A related case against Gongda Xue, another of Xue's sisters, is slated for trial in April.

link.
The technology they were stealing? Monoclonal antibodies.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by dualstow » Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:53 pm

A Chinese scientist in Missouri admitted stealing a secret algorithm from Monsanto to pass to Beijing
Bill Bostock
Fri, January 7, 2022

The US identified bioeconomy as one of the key areas where China is trying to steal US intelligence.
A Chinese scientist has admitted stealing trade secrets from the agrochemical giant Monsanto, the Justice Department said Thursday.

Xiang Haitao, 44, worked as an imaging scientist for Monsanto in Missouri between 2008 and 2017, during which time Monsanto and its subsidiary The Climate Corporation worked on a secret algorithm known as the "Nutrient Optimizer," the department said, citing court documents.
The algorithm helped farmers their productivity, the DOJ said.
Before leaving the company, Xiang downloaded a copy of the algorithm, and then flew to China on a one-way ticket, the department said.
Business Insider via Yahoo:
https://news.yahoo.com/chinese-scientis ... 10876.html
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:01 pm

China looks to the Western classics

Very interesting article. It's like there are two currents in it. One, in which the degenerate Westerners turn their backs on their own culture while enabling foreigners and outsiders to gleefully tear it down:
In the United States, the future of Classics education is on shaky ground. In 2019, the Society of Classical Studies held a conference in San Diego, titled “The Future of Classics,” that asked panelists to wax about “the diminution of our future role.” One panelist, Dan-el Padilla Peralta of Princeton, embraced that future, calling for a certain rosy, vaunted vision of the Classics to die “as swiftly as possible.” Peralta, who is Black, has become known in Classics circles as a searing critic of his own discipline — its lackluster representation of non-whites and its role in perpetuating harmful stereotypes. He once argued that “the production of whiteness” resided in “the very marrows of classics.” In May 2021, Peralta’s department at Princeton decided to remove the Latin and Greek requirement for its majors in a bid to welcome “new perspectives in the field.” Josh Billings, the department head, said that the decisions — which follow from Princeton’s initiatives to address systemic racism on campus — were given “new urgency” by the events following the death of George Floyd in May 2020.
And a second, where the Chinese enthusiastically embrace Western culture and adapt it to their own purposes:
When I met [Luo] for coffee near his university, he wore circular metal-rimmed glasses and a mandarin-collared shirt, the consummate style of a 20th-century Chinese scholar. In many ways, Luo is precisely the kind of talent Billings hopes to attract and retain at Princeton: a non-white Classics scholar from a non-Western part of the world. Ironically, though, when I asked Luo about his thoughts on the diversity efforts in the Princeton Classics department, Luo was dismissive. “It’s absurd,” he said. “If you want to get well-trained, educated classicists, you should have the requirement in there.”
“The political climate now is more anti-Western,” Luo admitted. “But culturally that isn’t the case. Culturally, we still love the West. Look at these cars! Look at these people, look at these outfits, and this place!” He pointed to the cafe we chose to sit in, one that looked like it had been parachuted in from downtown Portland. He continued: “This is the place we selected, and this is not Chinese.”
“The main reason for introducing Strauss to China,” Liu wrote, was “to avoid the century-long fanaticism toward all kinds of modern Western discourses.” Feminism, critical race theory, intersectionality: these were not for Liu the signposts of moral progress, but more like road spikes to be avoided on China’s own path to modernity.
Given what we know about some of China's demoralization efforts against the West, like the Tik Tok algorithim, and their Thousand Talents Program, I think it's likely that the Chinese are a major catalyst for a lot of the culture war battles being fought.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by dualstow » Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:43 pm

Interesting website, that supchina.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:10 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:01 pm

Very interesting article. It's like there are two currents in it. One, in which the degenerate Westerners turn their backs on their own culture while enabling foreigners and outsiders to gleefully tear it down
So far, these articles are in agreement
Moreover, [Wang] says that the “American spirit is facing serious challenges” from new ideational competitors. Reflecting on the universities he visited and quoting approvingly from Allan Bloom’s The Closing of the American Mind, he notes a growing tension between Enlightenment liberal rationalism and a “younger generation [that] is ignorant of traditional Western values” and actively rejects its cultural inheritance. “If the value system collapses,” he wonders, “how can the social system be sustained?” link

Here's where this one diverges:
And a second, where the Chinese enthusiastically embrace Western culture and adapt it to their own purposes:
Although I don't quite agree with the last paragraph, which claims America is addressing its problems. I can't help but think China has the right idea, not us.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by boglerdude » Mon Jan 24, 2022 10:21 pm

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Re: It's all about China

Post by barrett » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:02 am

One has to wonder what the Covid endgame plan is for the CCP (or Western Australia, or New Zealand) with a super-contagious variant like Omicron. My fear with China is that the plan is to keep infections seemingly low through the end of the Winter Olympics, and then blame whatever happens next on the foreigners who brought in a lot of virus from abroad.
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Re: It's all about China

Post by boglerdude » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:31 pm

Its easy to get people off farms and into construction/office work. Not easy to get them to code, "Middle-Income Trap". And the only easy economic growth comes from population growth (new loans made for homes, cars, college). China overbuilt and is in a bust like Japan had, and they're containing 1,400,000,000 potential dissidents with lockdowns. Its never been about your health and governments wont give up power until they cant maintain the narrative. Lucky for them, most people like being afraid and told what to do, and enjoy bullying conservatives.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUpnOl66Cyk
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Re: It's all about China

Post by Pet Hog » Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:10 pm

boglerdude wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:31 pm
Its easy to get people off farms and into construction/office work. Not easy to get them to code
<irony>

I'm not so sure. As a wise man once said, "Anyone who can go down 300 to 3000 feet in a mine sure in hell can learn how to program as well. Give me a break. Anybody who can thrown coal into a furnace can learn how to program, for God's sake."

</irony>
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