The Coming Great Transition: From Scarcity to Abundance

[MachineGhost]

Our global civilization is currently undergoing a tremendous set of transitions that will ultimately result in the dismantling of much of the way that we currently live and the construction of a new “civilization model”?. Over the next several months, I will be laying out many of the major challenges that we will face during this transition and propose solutions. I will then outline a practical plan that could enable us to actively make that transition in an elegant bottoms-up fashion (i.e. without requiring any willing participation from existing social and political institutions).

https://medium.com/emergent-culture/the ... 0d62da77d4

[MachineGhost]

Will electricity be too cheap to meter?

If Moore's Law is any indication, yes:

[Pointedstick]

Yeah, the way solar's going, it's going to stand on its own without subsidies very soon. I'm very strongly considering changing my heat-generating appliances from natural gas to electricity when they need replacement as a sort of implicit bet on this trend, and adding solar panels which are really astonishingly cheap nowadays.

[MachineGhost]

Yeah, the way solar's going, it's going to stand on its own without subsidies very soon. I'm very strongly considering changing my heat-generating appliances from natural gas to electricity when they need replacement as a sort of implicit bet on this trend, and adding solar panels which are really astonishingly cheap nowadays.

And if it helps frack the Middle East, all the better!  Although SA has the lowest cost of onshore oil production in the world at $27 a barrel.  A long way to go.

[dragoncar]

Will electricity be too cheap to meter?

If Moore's Law is any indication, yes:

But the cost of metering is also going down, as technology improves.  No longer do we need a person to come out and read the meter, transport a paper bill via truck, etc.

[invst65]

The natural belief in scarcity has a long evolutionary history on its side, don't you think?

My primary question is will this transition require re-education camps on the scale of Russia and China in the last century or can it be done without mass-extermination of humans?

[MachineGhost]

My primary question is will this transition require re-education camps on the scale of Russia and China in the last century or can it be done without mass-extermination of humans?

Naw, the re-education camps will evolve too so that everyone has their own personal internment center!

[img width=1024]http://www.realfoodgirlunmodified.com/w ... heeple.jpg[/img]

[I Shrugged]

Yeah, the way solar's going, it's going to stand on its own without subsidies very soon. I'm very strongly considering changing my heat-generating appliances from natural gas to electricity when they need replacement as a sort of implicit bet on this trend, and adding solar panels which are really astonishingly cheap nowadays.

I haven't done the math, but I think solar will soon be very practical.  I've messed with it a little, and the prices keep coming down.  Imagine a society with solar powered houses and a lot of electric cars.  I think both will happen.

[Mark Leavy]

Yeah, the way solar's going, it's going to stand on its own without subsidies very soon. I'm very strongly considering changing my heat-generating appliances from natural gas to electricity when they need replacement as a sort of implicit bet on this trend, and adding solar panels which are really astonishingly cheap nowadays.

I haven't done the math, but I think solar will soon be very practical.  I've messed with it a little, and the prices keep coming down.  Imagine a society with solar powered houses and a lot of electric cars.  I think both will happen.

My thought process has always been that *all* energy on earth (other than geo-thermal and nuclear) is solar energy.  Some of it has been held in storage for a few millennium, but it is solar energy nonetheless.

Current technologies aren't promising, but there is a lot of sunshine hitting the earth and a lot of unused land mass.  I have to believe that we can come up with something at least as efficient as photosynthesis, rainwater and wind.

[MachineGhost]

Current technologies aren't promising, but there is a lot of sunshine hitting the earth and a lot of unused land mass.  I have to believe that we can come up with something at least as efficient as photosynthesis, rainwater and wind.

How efficient is photosynthesis in terms of sunlight conversion anyway?  I think the highest scientists have gotten up to so far is around 40% in the prototype stage, not counting strange bio-synthetic hybrids.

I'm looking forward to the 5-min fast-charge graphite batteries.  Now that is revolutionary!

[Mark Leavy]

How efficient is photosynthesis in terms of sunlight conversion anyway?  I think the highest scientists have gotten up to so far is around 40% in the prototype stage, not counting strange bio-synthetic hybrids.

3 to 6 percent.
And that is the source of nearly all energy currently used today.  But we're using it faster than it is being made.
That is a solvable problem.

[Pointedstick]

Most solar cells are in the range of 12-20% efficient, actually. It doesn't sound like much, but hey, the input is effectively unlimited! That's what's exciting. Once you've got the unit, it just gives you free energy forever. In many ways, the economics of it remind me strong of of the finances of a person who's financially independent. You pay upfront for a continued stream that eventually breaks your ties to "the system" and actions you have to take to transact within it, and you also gain resilience from shocks to that system.

[dragoncar]

Yeah, the way solar's going, it's going to stand on its own without subsidies very soon. I'm very strongly considering changing my heat-generating appliances from natural gas to electricity when they need replacement as a sort of implicit bet on this trend, and adding solar panels which are really astonishingly cheap nowadays.

I haven't done the math, but I think solar will soon be very practical.  I've messed with it a little, and the prices keep coming down.  Imagine a society with solar powered houses and a lot of electric cars.  I think both will happen.

My thought process has always been that *all* energy on earth (other than geo-thermal and nuclear) is solar energy.  Some of it has been held in storage for a few millennium, but it is solar energy nonetheless.

Current technologies aren't promising, but there is a lot of sunshine hitting the earth and a lot of unused land mass.  I have to believe that we can come up with something at least as efficient as photosynthesis, rainwater and wind.

Tidal energy isn't solar unless you take a very roundabout definition of solar (ie everything is made from ancient star matter)