USA vs Germany

[Harry.Browne]

Tomorrow ist Soccertime

USA vs Germany

Both Coaches are german.

Any guess, how the game will end?

[Kshartle]

Pre-arranged tie.

It gets them both in. A loss for either team puts them at risk for getting kicked out.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that they pre-arrange a tie.

My guess is 0-0

[Harry.Browne]

A game like.  „Schande von Gijon“

I can't believe it. 

[barrett]

Germany beats the US but the US advances to the knockout round because Ghana rises up and defeats Portugal. At least I think that gets the US in. Both Ghana and the US would have four points but the US already beat Ghana which I think is the first tiebreaker, no?

My sports forecasting is on par with my stock picking (both bad).

How about the biting Uruguayan? Now he's trying to say that that the other dude's shoulder attacked his mouth.

[Kshartle]

Do you really think they'll play for a win barrett? Germany gains nothing from a win. A win is the same as a tie to them so why not just pre-arrange a tie?

Actually a tie is better for them because it ensures the US makes it in. I don't know much about soccer but from what I've read Portugal is considered to be stronger and more dangerous than the US.

[barrett]

Yeah, I think Der Mannschaft plays for the win. They are gunning to win the whole shebang, not just to advance. I think the best teams want to get through the tournament unbeaten and untied. That being said, I like all four teams in el grupo de la muerte. Seems like there were a few weak groups in this tournament but the fluff is getting burned off quickly now.

[Kshartle]

Yeah, I think Der Mannschaft plays for the win. They are gunning to win the whole shebang, not just to advance. I think the best teams want to get through the tournament unbeaten and untied. That being said, I like all four teams in el grupo de la muerte. Seems like there were a few weak groups in this tournament but the fluff is getting burned off quickly now.

Well we'll see. I think both teams have everything to lose and nothing to gain by playing for the win but I could see an agreement to play hard for maybe 80 min and if a goal is scored then by some "miracle" the other team gets to score and we have a 1-1 tie.

So I think it's 1-1 or more likely 0-0. I don't know which one would look more obvious but I also think no one would care and would immediately focus on the knock out stage.

If Germany plays to win and they lose and don't advance expect a head on a spike.

[Fragile Bill]

The first tie-break is goal differential.  A Portugal win would likely advance the U.S. because Portugal lost their first match 0-4.  A Ghana win coupled with a U.S. loss would make things dicey.

[barrett]

Thanks for that, FB. Right now the US is at +1 in goal differential and Ghana is at -1. Seems not quite right that Ghana could move on having lost their match to the US, but I'm guessing the idea behind the goal differential tie breaker is to encourage more aggressive play (and maybe to keep more teams in the running until the last minute of group play).

So Portugal can only advance if they clobber Ghana and the US gets clobbered by Germany, correct? I guess if you think the world rankings of all the teams is about right, that scenario is not too far fetched... unless the Kshartle fix is in.

[Kshartle]

The first tie-break is goal differential.  A Portugal win would likely advance the U.S. because Portugal lost their first match 0-4.  A Ghana win coupled with a U.S. loss would make things dicey.

But with a tie between Germany and the US, Germany wins the group and the US comes in 2nd.

From Germany's perspective they only need to avoid losing to have their best outcome. So they should only play for a draw because a draw and win are the same but playing for a draw lowers your only risk.....losing.

The marginal difference between the US winning and tying only makes sense that they might also want a gentlemen's agreement, especially because if both teams play to win the US is probably at a clear disadvantage.

Do you guys not think teams with potentially tens of millions or more (maybe hundreds of millions in player endorsements) would be motivated to not completely honor the integrity of....let's face it.....a game?

[Kshartle]

unless the Kshartle fix is in.

I like that 

Conspiracy aside, I think it's just as likely they have no agreement, but both captains realize the best thing is to play for a draw and expect that same play from the other guy. Therefore, I expect to see players hanging back and defending.

I don't know soccer that well, but I'm sure you can switch into major defensive mode. I think both teams will do that, agreement or not.

The USA and Germany are basically on the same team....running out the clock on Ghana and Portugal.

[dualstow]

Looking forward to the match!

[Fragile Bill]

I don't think you'll see either team in major defensive mode, kshartle, unless a goal gets scored.  And then the team that scores might do so since they would have to give up two before things turn disastrous.  Playing in defensive mode can really backfire since the best way to prevent a goal is to keep the ball on our opponent's side of the pitch.  Last week I watched underdog Iran, who was clearly playing for a 0-0 tie against Argentina, pack nine in the box for almost ninety minutes.  The attack from Argentina was relentless and Messi finally put one in in the 91st minute.  It just takes one.

[Kshartle]

I don't think you'll see either team in major defensive mode, kshartle, unless a goal gets scored.  And then the team that scores might do so since they would have to give up two before things turn disastrous.  Playing in defensive mode can really backfire since the best way to prevent a goal is to keep the ball on our opponent's side of the pitch.  Last week I watched underdog Iran, who was clearly playing for a 0-0 tie against Argentina, pack nine in the box for almost ninety minutes.  The attack from Argentina was relentless and Messi finally put one in in the 91st minute.  It just takes one.

The difference is they both have an incentive to just play it safe for a tie. The only strategy (in my mind) that makes sense is coming out and playing defensively and observing if the other team is going to do the same. If it turns out they both do put 8-9 guys "in the box", what incentive is there for either team to switch? They know neither team will score with only 2-3 guys attacking 9 so it just turns into a run out the clock scenario.

Now if one or both comes out attacking it's a different story but why ohhh why would they adopt that strategy from the whistle? It only lowers their chances.

Ahhhhhh now I actually want to watch it and here I went into the office already. Damn it.


Regarding Iran, what do you think the outcome would have been if they played more conventional? If it was still 0-0 at 90 minutes in I would say they executed very well and chose the correct strategy. If they played less defensively they would likely have lost by more so putting 9 in the box was still their best option, regardless of a last second goal.

Ohhhh well we'll see and let me be clear I am not a soccer expert in the least. I'm sure I don't even know all the rules having never played youth soccer, just platoon vs. platoon in the Army.

Maybe it will be a 5-4 shootout or something 

[Fragile Bill]

The purpose of my post was to hopefully cause at least one PP'er to watch the match who otherwise might not have    Bummer that you're already in the office, kshartle.  Should be an extremely interesting match.

[barrett]

Let us not assume that the fact he is in the office will preclude Kshartle from watching the game. He is clever that way. He'll at the very least have a ESPN online gamecast on.

[barrett]

Further indication of the long arm of Kshartle at work in Group G:

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) -- Ghana threw Sulley Muntari and Kevin-Prince Boateng out of its World Cup squad for disciplinary reasons on Thursday, plunging the African team into further chaos ahead of its decisive group-stage match against Portugal.

Just a day after seeming to resolve a possible player mutiny over World Cup bonus payments, the Ghana Football Association released two separate statements saying two of the country's stars had been "suspended ... indefinitely from the Black Stars with immediate effect."

Muntari was suspended "in the wake of his unprovoked physical attack on an executive committee member of the GFA and a management member of the Black Stars, Mr. Moses Armah" on Tuesday, one statement read.
The other statement said Boateng was dropped from the squad because of "vulgar verbal insults targeted at coach Kwesi Appiah" during a training session this week.

"Boateng has since showed no remorse for his actions which has resulted in the decision," the statement added.
Both players have had their World Cup accreditation withdrawn.

Ghana, a quarterfinalist in 2010, must beat Portugal in Brasilia on Thursday to stand any chance of reaching the second round from Group G. Muntari was suspended for the match after collecting two yellow cards.

Ghana's World Cup campaign was already in turmoil following a row over appearance-fee payments that squad members had been promised but had not yet received.

The country's cash-strapped federation had been forced to ask FIFA for an advance on the $8 million prize money it is guaranteed from playing at the World Cup to pay outstanding debts to players.

FIFA said Wednesday that Ghana's request was "under evaluation."

Ghana's deputy sports minister earlier had said that as much as $3 million in cash was being flown into Brazil from the West African nation to finally pay the bonuses to the unhappy players, averting a possible player strike.

World Cup prize money - which ranges in Brazil from $8 million for being knocked out in the group stage to $35 million for winning the title - is normally paid after the tournament.

Ghana midfielder Christian Atsu dismissed fears the team would boycott its final group game in Brasilia over the bonus-payment row.
"We are not going to say we are not going to play because of the money," Atsu said. "We love our nation and we are going to play for our nation."

Appiah said Wednesday that he had been having "sleepless nights" this week, and also said he had patched up his differences with Boateng after a training-ground altercation.

[Kshartle]

Let us not assume that the fact he is in the office will preclude Kshartle from watching the game. He is clever that way. He'll at the very least have a ESPN online gamecast on.

I've heard some discussion in the halls from engineers of how they'll watch today. I'll follow it since my schedule is clear during that time.

I look at this one more like a chess match between the coaches more so than a test of athleticism. What I think is their best strategy might be totally incorrect.

[Kshartle]

Not watching but from what I've read on a live chat it seems Germany is forcing the action.

Well now I hope they lose and whatever needs to happen with Ghana-Portugal happens, just for being dumb.

[Ad Orientem]

The Germans definitely missed KShartle's memo about fixing a tie match.

[Fragile Bill]

Yes, Germany certainly is forcing the action.  The USA would too if they could, but Germany is far superior at possessing the ball.  Tim Howard is looking sharp in goal and the USA defensive line is doing a great job so far.  If things are still tied at the 75 minute mark, kshartle's strategy may emerge.

[Kshartle]

At some point they would have to say that it's not worth the risk unless Germany is actually safer by being aggressive. Seems weird to me.

[Kshartle]

Goal for Germany.

Maybe they never considered USA much of a threat.

[Pointedstick]

Isn't it more likely that they're, you know, just playing the game rather than engaging in backroom deals?

[Kshartle]

Isn't it more likely that they're, you know, just playing the game rather than engaging in backroom deals?

Sometimes just playing the game involves playing for a tie though.....as described earlier in the thread (Iran), and doesn't imply a backroom deal.