The U.S. Dollar's Prospects In The New Year

[Reido]

Excellent Post, Wonk!

I agree largely with what you wrote - my only concern being that Social Security and Medicare make up a huge portion of our Federal budget, and, at least at this point - they're shown absolutely no signs of being able to control costs...  I agree that 10% inflation for 5-8 years seems likely and reasonable seeing both the situation we are Currently in as well as the historical precedent, but I feel that perhaps we will see some extended period of higher than average inflation even prologned more than 10 years??

Since the costs of these programs are based largely on demographics, I think the duration of the inflation could be extended past just a 5-8 year period...  perhaps a 4x increase in costs over a 12-15 year period... 

Just a thought
 

[MediumTex]

Excellent Post, Wonk!

I agree largely with what you wrote - my only concern being that Social Security and Medicare make up a huge portion of our Federal budget, and, at least at this point - they're shown absolutely no signs of being able to control costs...  I agree that 10% inflation for 5-8 years seems likely and reasonable seeing both the situation we are Currently in as well as the historical precedent, but I feel that perhaps we will see some extended period of higher than average inflation even prologned more than 10 years??

Since the costs of these programs are based largely on demographics, I think the duration of the inflation could be extended past just a 5-8 year period...  perhaps a 4x increase in costs over a 12-15 year period... 

Just a thought
 

Remember, though, that the liabilities you are hoping to "inflate away" are also going to keep up with inflation (Social Security through politically safe COLAs and Medicare through the price of health care keeping up with or exceeding inflation).

The Ben Bernank made this point in congressional testimony a couple of years ago in response to a question about whether the Fed was attempting to inflate aware future liabilities.

If you look at the amount of inflation in the U.S. since Social Security and Medicare were first introduced (the 1930s and 1960s), by the logic of "inflating away" these liabilities, they should have long ago been infated away.  The truth of the matter, though, is that every time inflation has required a re-thinking of spending levels on these entitlements, the political influence of the demographic groups that benefit from these programs has dictated that spending be increased on these benefits, even on an inflation-adjusted basis.

The latest episode of this generational theft occurred a few years ago when the Medicare prescription benefit was put in place with no funding mechanism and no serious debate about the cost/benefit aspects of this new entitlement.

Inflating away unfunded entitlements doesn't work very well, IMHO.

[Wonk]

Excellent Post, Wonk!

I agree largely with what you wrote - my only concern being that Social Security and Medicare make up a huge portion of our Federal budget, and, at least at this point - they're shown absolutely no signs of being able to control costs...  I agree that 10% inflation for 5-8 years seems likely and reasonable seeing both the situation we are Currently in as well as the historical precedent, but I feel that perhaps we will see some extended period of higher than average inflation even prologned more than 10 years??

Since the costs of these programs are based largely on demographics, I think the duration of the inflation could be extended past just a 5-8 year period...  perhaps a 4x increase in costs over a 12-15 year period... 

Just a thought
 

Remember, though, that the liabilities you are hoping to "inflate away" are also going to keep up with inflation (Social Security through politically safe COLAs and Medicare through the price of health care keeping up with or exceeding inflation).

The Ben Bernank made this point in congressional testimony a couple of years ago in response to a question about whether the Fed was attempting to inflate aware future liabilities.

If you look at the amount of inflation in the U.S. since Social Security and Medicare were first introduced (the 1930s and 1960s), by the logic of "inflating away" these liabilities, they should have long ago been infated away.  The truth of the matter, though, is that every time inflation has required a re-thinking of spending levels on these entitlements, the political influence of the demographic groups that benefit from these programs has dictated that spending be increased on these benefits, even on an inflation-adjusted basis.

The latest episode of this generational theft occurred a few years ago when the Medicare prescription benefit was put in place with no funding mechanism and no serious debate about the cost/benefit aspects of this new entitlement.

Inflating away unfunded entitlements doesn't work very well, IMHO.

I have a feeling the problem will be solved from all sides: higher taxes, means testing, higher age eligibility, reduced benefits, rationing healthcare, etc.  There's no easy way to do it, so a little bit of everything should do the trick. 

If it truly is politically impossible to find some sort of austerity, accumulated deficits (and added debt burden) will eventually do the trick and we just might see the USD crash folks are clamoring for.