Movie: Collapse (about "Peak Oil")

[Jan Van]

Anybody seen this movie? http://www.collapsemovie.com/

"Americans generally like to hear good news. They like to believe that a new president will right old wrongs, that clean energy will replace dirty oil and that fresh thinking will set the economy straight. American pundits tend to restrain their pessimism and hope for the best. But is anyone prepared for the worst?

Meet Michael Ruppert, a different kind of American. A former Los Angeles police officer turned independent reporter, he predicted the current financial crisis in his self-published newsletter, From the Wilderness, at a time when most Wall Street and Washington analysts were still in denial. Director Chris Smith has shown an affinity for outsiders in films like American Movie and The Yes Men. In Collapse, he departs stylistically from his past documentaries by interviewing Ruppert in a format that recalls the work of Errol Morris and Spalding Gray."

Definitely not a feel-good movie.

[Pkg Man]

Ah yes, just in time for Christmas!

[Jan Van]

i just put it on my netflix list ...it is available for instant viewing as well.

That's what I used as well, Netflix streaming. Love it.

"Peak Oil" is quite scary though...

[smurff]

I've seen it, and it was an interesting movie.  It got me interested in the concept of Peak Oil.

Another person like Michael Ruppert is James Howard Kunstler.  He is a journalist who began writing about peak oil and the consequences for life in America.  He has lots of books like "The Long Emergency" and "The Geography of Nowhere."  He has also written a series of novels about life in post-peak oil America ("World made by hand",  "The Witch of Hebron").

"The End of Suburbia" is one of the films Netflix has, but Kunstler also has a blog at http://kunstler.com/blog/ and a podcast series (where he is interviewed weekly by Duncan Crary)  at http://www.kunstlercast.com/

You can also download them directly from from iTunes.)

[Wonk]

I just watched it this morning (streamed from Netflix).  What a cheery outlook on civilization! 

Seriously, I thought it was very well done from the director's standpoint.  Ruppert is an interesting character.  It looks like Smith (the director) thought the same thing and wanted to shine a light on him for an hour and a half.  But the ironic thing is Smith doesn't totally buy into Ruppert's forecasting.  Instead, he asks very valid counter-questions as any skeptic would.  In the end, I think Smith succeeded in revealing that Ruppert's obsession with the downfall of civilization resulted in the downfall of his own life (he's about to be evicted from his rental).

Personally, I don't buy into the peak oil argument as represented by guys like Ruppert.  I buy into peak "cheap" oil, but not TEOTHWAWKI-type cataclysmic events as described by these types of guys.  Smith asks a great question in the movie: "Don't you think you are discounting human ingenuity and the ability to problem solve?"  Bingo.  Life will go on after oil gets expensive.  We will adapt and survive as humans always have.

My favorite quote was this: "If you are in a camp and a bear attacks, you don't have to be faster than the bear--you just have to be faster than the slowest camper!"  Indeed.  I think civilization will have wars, famine, panics, etc like we always have--nothing new here.  But our ability to adapt in a crisis will be the determining factors in whether we survive on an individual level. 

In the end, I think the takeaway is your perception of the world dictates your reality.  If you are a pessimist, bad things will happen to you.  If you are an optimist, you will find a way to survive and even thrive.

[MediumTex]

Ruppert is a gadfly.

He is an entertainer.

Peak oil does represent a very difficult cluster of challenges, but I think that ultimately their effects (and effective coping strategies) will be a lot more subtle than the vision that Ruppert is selling.

Ditto for Kunstler--just a noisy one trick pony annoyed that the world stubbornly refuses to end on his timetable.

As someone who has been interested in out-of-the-way things my whole life, I have noticed that when faced with a set of structural social-economic-cultural problems, there is a subset of people (mostly men, though Reba's character in "Tremors" is a fine example of the women in this group) who view any solution through the lens of what you might call a "paramilitary fantasy".  For those gripped by this fantasy, it is hard to let go of.  I was gripped by it myself when I was younger (like 13 years old).  I think, however, that the world is simply a more complicated place than people like Ruppert or Kunstler would have you believe.

Civilizations certainly do fall apart, but it tends to happen slowly and in a more grinding fashion than the paramilitary fantasy normally allows for.

Probably the best survival strategies for any challenge that might come along are to get out of debt, stay physically fit and be part of a community of people who you can trust in times of trouble, whether it be family, friends or other associates.  No guns, gold or MREs needed.

[Lone Wolf]

Probably the best survival strategies for any challenge that might come along are to get out of debt, stay physically fit and be part of a community of people who you can trust in times of trouble, whether it be family, friends or other associates.  No guns, gold or MREs needed.

Good post.  I am in 99% agreement.  The advice on debt, physical fitness and community is great.  That's why I've been playing more Wii Fit and spending more time on this message board so you guys can bail me out of trouble when the zombie hoards come.    I am kidding of course.  Pretty much.  (Having said that, if the zombie hoards do rise up amidst peak oil after a comet strikes the Earth, please check your PMs regularly.)

In all seriousness, though, I do still believe that the "guns, gold or MREs" triumvirate isn't a bad idea even for those of us in the optimist camp.  In the most extreme of circumstances, all three can make life much more comfortable.  The systems and processes that keep our grocery stores so well-stocked could easily suffer a variety of (hopefully temporary) interruptions.  Having a very modest emergency supply on hand in the pantry is an extremely inexpensive hedge.  And if I had to sum up my view of the PP philosophy, it would be "Hedge against as much as possible but count on as little as possible."  That means that you don't count on the world ending but you make sure that you keep what you need on hand in case the ride should ever get bumpy.

And YMMV on this issue, but an uncertain world seems to demand at least a basic firearm, even if you don't see the world ending any time soon.

[MediumTex]

And YMMV on this issue, but an uncertain world seems to demand at least a basic firearm, even if you don't see the world ending any time soon.

I agree completely. 

I was suggesting that people take a more comprehensive and creative view of preparing for an uncertain future.  As part of that uncertain future, it certainly makes sense to provide for personal security.

The thing that bothers me is when I see people going more deeply into debt buying TEOTWAWKI gear and getting more out of shape sitting in front of their computers trolling the doom sites when there are more practical steps hiding in plain site (e.g., get in shape, talk to your neighbors, pay down debt, acquire new skills, etc.).

And for those who are new to the TEOTWAWKI game, remember this: in the same way that the mainstream news misrepresents events for various purposes, so do the Rupperts and Kunstlers of the world.  Everyone has an angle, and it is very rarely about delivering the un-filtered truth to you.  The theme that seems to run through most of it is keeping people entertained, frightened, uneasy or some combination of the three, normally as a setup to purchase products and services that will either enhance the entertainment or ease the fear and uneasiness.

Part of the appeal of a person like Harry Browne is that he respected people in a fundamental way and offered ideas that were well-developed and useful without any unpleasant surprises.

[Jan Van]

...
Everyone has an angle, and it is very rarely about delivering the un-filtered truth to you.  The theme that seems to run through most of it is keeping people entertained, frightened, uneasy or some combination of the three, normally as a setup to purchase products and services that will either enhance the entertainment or ease the fear and uneasiness.
...

That's quite a problem in itself. I'm intrigued by "Peak Oil" , but where do you find a "fair and balanced" investigation of it? It seems quite logical that we have too many people on too small a planet with not enough resources. And this is getting worse by the minute. But it doesn't seem to get that much attention. Well, it's gotten better the last years with the whole climate change discussion.

On the positive side, if the "Peak Oil" collapse happens soon, we don't have to worry about the budget deficit anymore...
(Maybe that's my conspiracy theory! Our government doesn't worry about deficits because it's all futile anyway!!!)
And maybe that would take care of climate change too!

Glad i'm an optimist...

[Lone Wolf]

The thing that bothers me is when I see people going more deeply into debt buying TEOTWAWKI gear and getting more out of shape sitting in front of their computers trolling the doom sites when there are more practical steps hiding in plain site (e.g., get in shape, talk to your neighbors, pay down debt, acquire new skills, etc.).

This is a great point.  I recall Harry Browne making a similar point to a caller who was fretting about his preparations for the "inevitable" collapse.  Although I've forgotten the the details of this gentleman's fears (or his prep ideas) what stuck with me was that Browne advised him to "never sacrifice the present for an uncertain future".  If there's one rule of thumb in terms of this stuff, that has got to be it.

In this particular instance, Browne thought some junk silver coins and a firearm were sensible ideas but he told the man not to get too carried away with the rest of it.  What you notice here is that having a little silver on hand isn't a bad investment and a firearm is useful in the world as it exists today (potentially both for recreation as well as security.)

Perversely, I've heard of people taking on a lot of additional debt in anticipation of it all being inflated away in the "inevitable" hyperinflation.  This is another version of that combination of fortune-telling and "sacrificing the present" (or at least one's very likely future) that Harry Browne was trying to steer this guy away from.

And I notice how all the advice you gave (get fit, enjoy the company of your neighbors, and pay off your debt) has the opposite approach.  It benefits you greatly in the present... while paying potential dividends in a future that might go unexpectedly sideways.  When civilization fails to end, you're left in a world where you've gotten to know your neighbors and you can tussle around with your grandkids without wheezing.  Now that's real preparedness.

[Wonk]

Here's an interesting blog post from a few years ago:

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... oomer.html

I think with just about any issue, it helps not to get too worked up after listening to one side.  Go find the other side, weigh the arguments, and make your own decision.  While I think any disaster could happen--and we should make reasonable preparations to mitigate risks--the worst possible scenario would be to worry your life away and lose the ability to enjoy each day you have left. 

In the end, we're all dead anyway.

[craigr]

And I notice how all the advice you gave (get fit, enjoy the company of your neighbors, and pay off your debt) has the opposite approach.  It benefits you greatly in the present... while paying potential dividends in a future that might go unexpectedly sideways.  When civilization fails to end, you're left in a world where you've gotten to know your neighbors and you can tussle around with your grandkids without wheezing.  Now that's real preparedness.

Yep. I live in a small rural community. Getting to know your neighbors is a good idea. If there is a problem it is human nature (and necessity) to band together and help each other. Nobody is an island.

[steve]

This makes me think about The Crash Course I watched a while back, In my opinion it was very informative.
There are 20 chapters
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcour ... ee-beliefs

[Jan Van]

Thanks for the links, y'all. Makes for some interesting reading!

[Storm]

I do think people get a little too carried away on both extremes.  For example, you can watch CNBC and listen to Jim Cramer telling you stocks are going to the moon and you better not keep your money in cash.  Or, you can read zerohedge.com and you would think we were on the brink of financial apocalypse and that soon we would be hiding out in the forest with assault rifles, eating MREs and trading junk silver coins, Mad Max style.

The real outcome is rarely either of those two extremes... it is usually somewhere in the middle.  Sure, bad events happen, but you shouldn't prepare for the unlikely end of the world scenario.  What I would prepare for is the more likely scenario like a hurricane hits the east coast (where I happen to live) and roads are inaccessible due to downed trees for a couple days.  Having a 72-hour kit which consists of just enough food and water to get by for 3 days until help can arrive is a good idea.  Having a bomb shelter complete with backup power generator, water filtration system, years supply of food, crosses and silver bullets for the vampire invasion, etc, is going a little overboard.

[moda0306]

Regarding nobody being an Island, my snowblower broke down this weekend.  3 of my neighbors (I live in a cul-de-sac) realized it and there was a parade of snow blowers and shovels coming my way with help getting out of the 4-foot drifts from off of my roof.

One small example, but when trusted friends, family and neighbors create a support network, it creates a surprisingly fun, efficient and useful tool for one to get through life's tough spots.

[MediumTex]

...
Everyone has an angle, and it is very rarely about delivering the un-filtered truth to you.  The theme that seems to run through most of it is keeping people entertained, frightened, uneasy or some combination of the three, normally as a setup to purchase products and services that will either enhance the entertainment or ease the fear and uneasiness.
...

That's quite a problem in itself. I'm intrigued by "Peak Oil" , but where do you find a "fair and balanced" investigation of it? It seems quite logical that we have too many people on too small a planet with not enough resources. And this is getting worse by the minute. But it doesn't seem to get that much attention. Well, it's gotten better the last years with the whole climate change discussion.

Although Richard Heinberg wanders off into socialist fantasies from time-to-time, his peak oil analysis is relatively level-headed.  He has written a couple of pretty good books on the topic.  As alarmists go, I find his thinking to be clearer than many others in the peak oil camp.

Here is a recent Heinberg article that is pretty good:

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2 ... end-growth

The Oil Drum is also a great resource.

"The Automatic Earth" is a blog with some good peak oil-related insights (and good writing), though their conclusion is that peak oil and global deleveraging will lead to deflation, not inflation.

If you are in the mood for some full bore (and cerebral) end-of-the-world musings, you must check out Dmitry Orlov:

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

Orlov is one of the few people who sometimes makes me laugh out loud when I am reading his stuff.

[Hobbery]

Wow.  That Chris Martenson "Crash Course" was an uplifting set of videos to watch over Christmas...  Pretty informative though.

OK.  So this is a bit off the "Peak Oil" topic, but certainly in line with "Economic Collapse".... 

Check out:  http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/  for some good news and fun times!!!

[smurff]

For those into disaster porn, The History Channel aired a program yesterday, "Prophets of Doom" (nice title ) with Ruppert, Kunstler, and a bunch of other guys talking about collapse-related topics.  Oil, topsoil, food, finance, etc.  It's a two hour program and it came on twice yesterday.  If you missed it, they'll probably air it again in a week or so.

[moda0306]

How would the PP perform in such cases... you could argue inflation as the price of everyday products and commodities would rise due to scarcity, but the economy would slow to a crawl and LT bonds might actually do ok as the velocity of money slows to a crawl.

Probably a combination of both as anything of basic useful value holds its value or rises (like high-mileage used cars did in 2008), and any luxurious or nonessential items (gold? JK) collapse in price.

There's really not much I'd rather have than the PP for an uncertain future.

[MediumTex]

How would the PP perform in such cases... you could argue inflation as the price of everyday products and commodities would rise due to scarcity, but the economy would slow to a crawl and LT bonds might actually do ok as the velocity of money slows to a crawl.

Probably a combination of both as anything of basic useful value holds its value or rises (like high-mileage used cars did in 2008), and any luxurious or nonessential items (gold? JK) collapse in price.

There's really not much I'd rather have than the PP for an uncertain future.

Less net energy (which is part of the peak oil story) means less economic growth.

Less economic growth is deflationary, not inflationary.

When the market perceives future economic growth to be contracting, the supply of credit will contract as well (since today's credit is extended based upon the perception of tomorrow's ability to pay it back).  This, too, is deflationary.

I could argue it either way (deflationary or inflationary), but the basic problem is that we have a supply of a critical resource (i.e., oil) that has seen its YOY global production increase for many decades, and we are now looking at a potential decline in annual production numbers basically from here forward.  I don't know what effect this fundemental shift will have in a world designed around the idea of perpetual economic expansion, but I suspect that its effects will be more problematic than people imagine.

Consider that every recession since the early 1970s was preceded by an oil price spike (including the one that started in 2007).  Ask yourself what a world would look like where such price spikes become the norm?

Note, too, that we are currently in the middle of a new oil price spike.  Normally, after a recession the price of oil is depressed for many years.  This time around the price of oil was depressed for only a few months (from late 2008 through mid-2009).

The basic problem is that high energy prices are toxic to economic growth and energy prices will be high if there is no ability to increase production at will.

People who are accustomed to things like printing more money in response to a debt overhang often don't appreciate that natural resources are subject to a different set of constraints than financial instruments.

I don't think that the peak oil thesis invalidates any of the thinking behind the PP.

[moda0306]

How would more expensive energy actually make things cheaper?  It may increase unemployment and reduce growth, but as far as costs go, aren't they going to go up?

[MediumTex]

How would more expensive energy actually make things cheaper?  It may increase unemployment and reduce growth, but as far as costs go, aren't they going to go up?

Higher energy prices create demand destruction across the entire economy as people have the same amount of money as before but everything starts costing more.  Faced with no extra money to pay higher prices, demand across the entire economy becomes soft, driving prices lower after an initial upward surge. 

It doesn't have to happen this way, but a broad deleveraging trend stacked on top of this energy dynamic makes it more likely, IMHO.

This is exactly what happened in 2008.  Remember how in early 2008 everyone was talking about inflation and gas prices were going through the roof?

[Lone Wolf]

Higher energy prices create demand destruction across the entire economy as people have the same amount of money as before but everything starts costing more.  Faced with no extra money to pay higher prices, demand across the entire economy becomes soft, driving prices lower after an initial upward surge. 

You're making a compelling argument, but isn't something like the 70s "stagflation" quite likely in such a case?  If lots of money gets pumped into an economy in which it can chase fewer goods, why couldn't we see weak economic growth coupled with higher prices?  It seems to match history pretty cleanly.

[moda0306]

High gas prices in 2008 triggered what was already a bubble waiting to collapse.  It may have been the hair that broke the camels back, but we had huge problems going into it with housing/debt/banks etc that were just waiting for something to set it off.