Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Mdraf
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:54 pm

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Mdraf » Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:04 am

That depends on who is tracking the record.

I posted the clip not because Schiff is a messiah to be followed and adored but simply because he was spot on on this particular issue while all the gurus were mocking him. That's all.
Gumby
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4012
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 8:54 am

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Gumby » Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:05 am

Mdraf wrote: That depends on who is tracking the record.
Schiff has a ~30% accuracy:

http://www.economicpredictions.org/pete ... edictions/
Last edited by Gumby on Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
Nothing I say should be construed as advice or expertise. I am only sharing opinions which may or may not be applicable in any given case.
tennpaga
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3126
Joined: Tue May 17, 2011 1:44 pm

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by tennpaga » Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:08 am

Mdraf wrote: That depends on who is tracking the record.

I posted the clip not because Schiff is a messiah to be followed and adored but simply because he was spot on on this particular issue while all the gurus were mocking him. That's all.
In other words, in a roomful of idiots, one is bound to be right about something at some point.

I'm not impressed.
Last edited by tennpaga on Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
* Gresham's Law: Bad behavior drives out good.
* Gresham's corollary: Avoid participating in systems where good behavior cannot win.

https://fs.blog/2009/12/mental-model-greshams-law/
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8700
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:10 am

The only pundit or "market guru" I think I would ever pay any attention to is MediumTex.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
tennpaga
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3126
Joined: Tue May 17, 2011 1:44 pm

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by tennpaga » Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:19 am

You Schiff fanboys realize, I hope, that Schiff's only interest is in promoting himself, generating buzz, and selling his own products.  The way to do that is to be outrageous.  It doesn't matter if he is right or wrong.

You guys prove that.
Last edited by tennpaga on Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
* Gresham's Law: Bad behavior drives out good.
* Gresham's corollary: Avoid participating in systems where good behavior cannot win.

https://fs.blog/2009/12/mental-model-greshams-law/
Mdraf
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:54 pm

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Mdraf » Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:21 am

TennPaGa wrote:
Mdraf wrote: That depends on who is tracking the record.

I posted the clip not because Schiff is a messiah to be followed and adored but simply because he was spot on on this particular issue while all the gurus were mocking him. That's all.
In other words, in a roomful of idiots, one is bound to be right about something at some point.

I'm not impressed.
Exactly. And this post proves your theory :) j/k
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 7619
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by moda0306 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:59 am

I'm amazed that when we have a guy like HB to look to as a leader in the Austrian/libertarian community, that we'd even give Schiff any of our respect.  HB is the gold standard (pardon the pun) of Austrian economic thinking and market analysis, IMO.  I don't agree with him in some important areas, but we both share the same philosiphy in that we both realize that we could be wrong, but even if we're not, the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, and drive our emotions crazy in the process.

That's all I ask.  A little humility and perspective alongside insightful economic analysis (even if I disagree with some of it).  HB had more in his pinky than Schiff has.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."

- Thomas Paine
Kshartle
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3561
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2011 4:38 pm

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Kshartle » Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:15 am

moda0306 wrote: HB had more in his pinky than Schiff has.
God/Zeus/Allah/Gozar/Vishnu/whoever broke the mold with HB.

Schiff is too statist for me but watching him dismantle hack economists in discussions is always entertaining to me. 
User avatar
technovelist
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 7161
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2010 11:20 pm

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by technovelist » Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:38 am

moda0306 wrote: I'm amazed that when we have a guy like HB to look to as a leader in the Austrian/libertarian community, that we'd even give Schiff any of our respect.  HB is the gold standard (pardon the pun) of Austrian economic thinking and market analysis, IMO.  I don't agree with him in some important areas, but we both share the same philosiphy in that we both realize that we could be wrong, but even if we're not, the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, and drive our emotions crazy in the process.

That's all I ask.  A little humility and perspective alongside insightful economic analysis (even if I disagree with some of it).  HB had more in his pinky than Schiff has.
The market can't stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent, because I can stay solvent indefinitely.

That's because I don't use leverage.
Another nod to the most beautiful equation: e + 1 = 0
User avatar
moda0306
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 7619
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2010 9:05 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by moda0306 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 11:50 am

I'm amazed that nobody I've ever met knows who Harry Browne or the PP is.

Tech,

You still have expenses don't you? 

If gold does another stretch like '81 to '2000 and you lose your job you could hit some huge solvency issue.  Leverage isn't the only cause of insolvency.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."

- Thomas Paine
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8700
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:00 pm

Yeah, cashflow is key. Gotta pay your bills, so you need an income or no expenses.
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
Gumby
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4012
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 8:54 am

Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Gumby » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:10 pm

Kshartle wrote:but watching him dismantle hack economists in discussions is always entertaining to me.
Given his ~30% track record, it must not happen very often :)
Last edited by Gumby on Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nothing I say should be construed as advice or expertise. I am only sharing opinions which may or may not be applicable in any given case.
Post Reply