Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

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Mdraf
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Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Mdraf » Thu Sep 26, 2013 11:34 am

Kshartle
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 26, 2013 11:46 am

Did he just get lucky going against going everyone else's opinion or was he right based on analysis of the FED/government and economy? I think that's an important question.
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Mdraf » Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:13 pm

Kshartle wrote: Did he just get lucky going against going everyone else's opinion or was he right based on analysis of the FED/government and economy? I think that's an important question.
He explains himself as to why in the video and I tend to judge people on results rather than process. So it works for me.
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Gumby » Thu Sep 26, 2013 5:50 pm

Mdraf wrote:
Kshartle wrote: Did he just get lucky going against going everyone else's opinion or was he right based on analysis of the FED/government and economy? I think that's an important question.
He explains himself as to why in the video and I tend to judge people on results rather than process. So it works for me.
If you've read Browne's "Why The Best Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong," you'll know that gurus have a skill for making it sound like they called everything perfectly. A YouTube video with carefully edited clips that are often taken out of context isn't all that impressive — particularly since Schiff hasn't had a solid prediction come true in about 5 years. But, hey, I guess he finally got one! It's pretty sad when you consider how desperate his followers are for a winning prediction that "right again" really means, "right again for the second time in 5 years!"

Keep in mind he keeps saying that the Fed with "never" taper, so eventually he will likely be wrong with his so-called "right" prediction. It only works as long as the Fed is conducting QE. The USA isn't the first country to conduct QE, and typically QE doesn't last "forever". Typically QE would only last as long as the private sector is deleveraging/recovering (8-10 years or so according to some like Ray Dalio). If that's true, we may have 3-5 years left of QE — but then Schiff would be "wrong" when the policies eventually shift.
Last edited by Gumby on Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Gumby » Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:33 pm

And it's not at all difficult to point out that Schiff is wrong waaaay more times than he is right about anything. Like most gurus, even when he claims victory, he is usually just covering up his tracks and rewriting history (as Browne explains in "Best Laid Plans")...

Here's one example from the last time he was "right"...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/106824- ... -right-now
Here is Schiff in 2002: Schiff predicts Nasdaq 500 and Dow 4000. Now, had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff's market calls, you lost everything you wagered.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/106824- ... -right-now
In response to the 2008 crisis, which he successfully predicted, he recommended that people counteract the crisis by piling into commodities and foreign stocks — and both got killed. He completely missed Treasuries as a safe haven. So, even when he got things right, his advice was wrong.

For those who want more details, Mich exposed Schiff's embarrassing track record here:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... wrong.html

And a more broad overview of his track record can be found here: http://www.economicpredictions.org/pete ... edictions/

If you listened to Schiff over the past decade, you ended up losing a LOT of money. Not someone you want to take market advice from.
Last edited by Gumby on Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Kshartle » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:28 am

Gumby the only clip of Schiff here is of him him being dead on accurate. Do you have anything of him advising people to do something wrong?
Last edited by Kshartle on Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by moda0306 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:37 am

Ksharte,

He provided plenty of accurate examples. Do you really need video?

And what he predicted was hardly mind-blowing.  Predicting that the fed is going to postpone taper when it's obvious the economy is incredibly weak isn't exactly amazing stuff.  It's obvious the fed is only failing at one side of its legal mandate.

He's just an embarrassment.  Other than nailing the housing bubbl, he's been consistently wrong for a decade.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."

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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Kshartle » Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:44 am

moda0306 wrote: Ksharte,

He provided plenty of accurate examples. Do you really need video?

And what he predicted was hardly mind-blowing.  Predicting that the fed is going to postpone taper when it's obvious the economy is incredibly weak isn't exactly amazing stuff.  It's obvious the fed is only failing at one side of its legal mandate.

He's just an embarrassment.  Other than nailing the housing bubbl, he's been consistently wrong for a decade.
If it was so easy to predict then why was everyone else wrong and laughing at him?

I guess I only saw what someone else said that he said. I'll look again at the articles it was late.

Generally when I attribute something to someone I've got to actually see it, not be told by a third party.

I've listened to Peter a decent amount and will tell you I have heard the wildest claims about what he said and they are usually not anywhere near close to reality.

I'll look again at the articles.


Wrong for a decade? Has he been wrong about gold? He's been saying it's a buy since it was $300. Has he been wrong about the dollar vs. the Franc, the Aussie, the Kiwi and the Loonie for ten years? The dollar is down 30-40% against that group over that time. He's been saying buy stocks in non-us developed markets for ten years. If you run EFA which mimics the MSCI EAFE index for ten years it's still up a little on the S&P and prior to the 2008 crash it was slaughtering the S&P.

What is it you guys don't like about him? No doubt he can rub people the wrong way. He's definately free market so I enjoy listening, and he doesn't care what the group is thinking.

I remember when Romney had that first debate against Obama and everyone thought Romney was dominant. The next day Peter said Obama was going to win easily based on it. He pointed out that all Romney tried to do was out-democrat Obama and he had no chance doing that. Why would a liberal or whatever vote for Obama-lite when they could just get the real thing. It was the opposite of what everyone else saw.

Anyway you should listen to his show sometime it's free. Sometimes it's pretty dang funny. 
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Kshartle » Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:46 am

Gumby wrote: Keep in mind he keeps saying that the Fed with "never" taper, so eventually he will likely be wrong with his so-called "right" prediction.
I've heard him say a million times they won't taper until the market forces them. He may have said never a couple times in 3 minute clip when he gets a spot on a show because he doesn't have time to go into it.

Listen to his show where he's got a lot of time to explain his prediction.
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Kshartle » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:06 am

Gumby wrote: For those who want more details, Mich exposed Schiff's embarrassing track record here:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... wrong.html
This is a guy who is trying to drum up business using Schiff's name. What a joke. This was written in late Jan 2009.

"We do not think this is a good time for buy and hold strategies for either foreign or domestic stocks or currencies."

Umm......was there ever a better time to buy those? This guy suckered a lot of people to buy at the bottom. He couldn't analyze his way out of a wet paper bag. 
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Kshartle » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:50 am

Anyway who cares he's just a guy. I would encourage everyone to listen to his show at least once to see if they like it. It's free, he's pretty funny to me and he talks about all the stuff we talk about on here. Sometimes the guests are pretty good.
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Re: Peter Schiff Was Right (again)

Post by Gumby » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:58 am

Kshartle wrote:This is a guy who is trying to drum up business using Schiff's name. What a joke. This was written in late Jan 2009.

"We do not think this is a good time for buy and hold strategies for either foreign or domestic stocks or currencies."

Umm......was there ever a better time to buy those? This guy suckered a lot of people to buy at the bottom. He couldn't analyze his way out of a wet paper bag.
Man, you don't get it.

I don't care what Misch's predictions are any more than Schiff's. You shouldn't listen to any guru for predictions. Not Schiff, and not Misch. I only referenced Misch because he just happens to correctly point out Schiff's miserable track record.

I don't quite understand why you are a Schiff fanboy. My guess is that it is simply to do with the fact that you agree with his criticisms of Fed policy — and that fits your world view. But, here's the rub... Just because you agree with his criticisms doesn't make either of you right (as we can confirm by Schiff's terrible track record). Since no one can be right 100% of the time (and certainly not Schiff) it is best to own a diversified portfolio — and a truly diversified investment means holding assets that make you uncomfortable (i.e. owning assets that you hate).

It's worth noting that even the best market gurus rarely ever get more than 50% of their predictions right. So, I have no idea why you would be so enamored by any guru. You'd be better off by flipping a coin for most of them. But Schiff's track record is closer to 30% accuracy — it's just terrible.
Last edited by Gumby on Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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