How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

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Do you agree with MT/MR advocates on how money and debt work?

Poll runs till Fri Jul 06, 2057 4:03 am

I agree
14
41%
I disagree
8
24%
I don't know and I don't care
12
35%
 
Total votes: 34
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:28 pm

Hard to address all these questions. I will try to get to the ones that I think are most valuable (have to make a judgement call, scarce time).

I have to adjourn now, dinner with friends.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:31 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Kshartle wrote: I really only care about the spending cuts first. If they can get it down to zero there will be no one left to rob me!

Cutting taxes but not spending only means more borrowing and printing which is worse than taxing.
Putting aside the theft aspect of taxes (which I agree with), why do you think that the economy of the 1980s and 1990s only started to really rock and roll when government spending was cranked up and budget deficits exploded?

Why do you think that in the late 1990s as the government's deficits began shrinking the economy began to sputter?

Do you think that there is any relationship between government spending and the health of the economy, or are the two events I am describing above (i.e., the expansion and contraction of the budget deficit) unrelated to what was happening in the broader economy?

It seems to me that as the government began to get its financial house in order in the mid to late 1990s, that should have been the catalyst for even stronger economic growth, and yet it wasn't.  Why do you think that was the case?
The government never got its financial house in order in the 1990's. The last time there was a budget surplus was in the 1950's.

But of course it takes more and more borrowing and spending to keep the bubble inflated as time goes on and there are more and more imbalances in the economy. Thus, even pulling back on the borrowing, much less starting to pay off the debt, causes the economy to start readjusting to the real desires of consumers rather than what the government wants. Again, this was explained by HB many years ago.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by MediumTex » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:33 pm

Kshartle wrote: I have to adjourn now, dinner with friends.
Shop smart.

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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by MediumTex » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:37 pm

Libertarian666 wrote: The government never got its financial house in order in the 1990's. The last time there was a budget surplus was in the 1950's.

But of course it takes more and more borrowing and spending to keep the bubble inflated as time goes on and there are more and more imbalances in the economy. Thus, even pulling back on the borrowing, much less starting to pay off the debt, causes the economy to start readjusting to the real desires of consumers rather than what the government wants. Again, this was explained by HB many years ago.
So the strong U.S. economy in the 1980s and 1990s was in some senses really a tragedy because the economy could have been even stronger if government spending had been lower?

I'm not a fan of government spending by any means, but it has always seemed like periods of high government spending coincided with periods of economic health.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:41 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Kshartle wrote:
MediumTex wrote: If there is plenty of stuff out there to buy, why are many companies having trouble selling all of it?

What is keeping you from buying all of the stuff that you want?
I don't have enough money.
But if your concern is that Fed policies are introducing too much money into the economy relative to the quantity of goods and services that are available, shouldn't this money be trickling down to you and me so that we WILL have enough money to buy more of the stuff we want (which will translate into price inflation if it persists)?

It seems to me that you should have too much money right now, which would be the catalyst for a reduction in purchasing power of each dollar.
Ok one more.

More money for me solves my problem. More money for everyone just results in higher prices. If the distribution is even the same allocations will be made. People will forgo the same luxuries they are forgoing now in favor of the same essentials they are buying now.

Of course the printed money never flows evenly.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:22 pm

MediumTex wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: The government never got its financial house in order in the 1990's. The last time there was a budget surplus was in the 1950's.

But of course it takes more and more borrowing and spending to keep the bubble inflated as time goes on and there are more and more imbalances in the economy. Thus, even pulling back on the borrowing, much less starting to pay off the debt, causes the economy to start readjusting to the real desires of consumers rather than what the government wants. Again, this was explained by HB many years ago.
So the strong U.S. economy in the 1980s and 1990s was in some senses really a tragedy because the economy could have been even stronger if government spending had been lower?

I'm not a fan of government spending by any means, but it has always seemed like periods of high government spending coincided with periods of economic health.
Of course it seemed that way. Most people think the boom is "good" and the slump is "bad", because the money illusion makes people think they are richer when prices are going up, and the capital goods industries are stimulated due to the appearance of additional investment capital that actually doesn't exist. That is why it is so hard to stop the practice of government intervention in the economy.

The reality is that the boom is the distortion and the slump is the correction. But since early in the 20th century, the government never allows the slump to correct the distortion, but instead supplies more distortion to cover it up. Thus, the problem keeps increasing.

HB describes all of this in great detail in at least one of his books, and I think actually in several of them. If anyone is interested, I'll look it up this weekend.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 5:50 pm

"You can profit from a monetary crisis" explains this all brilliantly.

But don't take Browne's word for it, take Hitler's (under 4 min): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdFVu-s_97E
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:38 pm

Kshartle wrote: regarding snarkiness......it's really really tough to convey proper tone through typing online. For instance, when I read anything you post it's in the voice of that bozo from the commercials and MT is freakin Evil Dead.

Unless that really is you two.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by moda0306 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:49 pm

Kshartle wrote: "You can profit from a monetary crisis" explains this all brilliantly.

But don't take Browne's word for it, take Hitler's (under 4 min): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdFVu-s_97E
I've never been so entertained while disagreeing so vehemently with a video.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Gumby » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:48 pm

Kshartle wrote: "You can profit from a monetary crisis" explains this all brilliantly.
Browne distanced himself from being a diehard inflationista since he wrote that. He actually designed the 4x25 Permanent Portfolio to help his readers re-balance out of all the gold he recommended they pile into during the 1970s. And frankly, it should be abundantly obvious that he became a big fan of diversifying with US Treasury Bonds since then — despite all the debt the US has racked up — and he taught us the valuable lesson that the future is unknowable.
Kshartle wrote:But don't take Browne's word for it, take Hitler's (under 4 min): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdFVu-s_97E
Not sure you want to align yourself with Schiff. There are far more videos of him making a fool of himself (take a look) than there are of him being "right" about anything. His claim to fame is calling the housing bubble — but he's been dead wrong about everything else ever since.
Last edited by Gumby on Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:58 pm

moda0306 wrote:
Kshartle wrote: "You can profit from a monetary crisis" explains this all brilliantly.

But don't take Browne's word for it, take Hitler's (under 4 min): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdFVu-s_97E
I've never been so entertained while disagreeing so vehemently with a video.
The movie it's from is German and fantastic. I think it's called "The Fall"
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Mdraf » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:28 pm

Kshartle wrote:
moda0306 wrote:
Kshartle wrote: "You can profit from a monetary crisis" explains this all brilliantly.

But don't take Browne's word for it, take Hitler's (under 4 min): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdFVu-s_97E
I've never been so entertained while disagreeing so vehemently with a video.
The movie it's from is German and fantastic. I think it's called "The Fall"
Indeed it is. On Netflix DVD
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:29 pm

Gumby wrote: His claim to fame is calling the housing bubble — but he's been dead wrong about everything else ever since.
I've listened to Schiff quite a bit, I've even talked to him on a few occasions. Now he doesn't need me to defend him, but I'm pretty sure of what's he's been saying since I started listening back in '10.

He's said the economy would not recover as long as QE was occuring.

He's never said we're going to have hyperinflation that I've heard. I've heard him say many  that he doesn't believe that it will happen although a possibility.

When they did QE 1 he said there would be more QEs then Rocky movies. He's admitted that was wrong now that there's QE infinity but not sure if that counts.

He's been recomending stocks not bonds since I started listening. Granted, he's said he prefers foreign dividend payers not relying on the US consumer but given the choice he prefers US stocks over US bonds.

Now timing is a different story. If he's said he thought the crash would happen by '11 or '12 then definately wrong. Timing is impossible. Imagine being asked that question everytime you're on TV. You predict a crash and everyone wants to know when.

I listen to the guy every so often like I said. I have his latest book the Real Crash. He's not right about everything but I'm curious what you think he's been dead wrong on.

Disclaimer I completely disagree with his political beliefs 100%. As an anarchist I can't abide by the statism, even libertarian. He also has politicians like Rand Paul and other republican candidates on and it makes me ill. I completely disagree with his perscription for improving the government. 
Last edited by Kshartle on Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by moda0306 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:40 pm

Gumby,

I'd take the reigns on this schiff thing, but I'm sure you have a wonderful post you're working on.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:44 pm

moda0306 wrote: Gumby,

I'd take the reigns on this schiff thing, but I'm sure you have a wonderful post you're working on.
Guys take it as far as you can. Like I said, nobody needs anybody to defend them. But I will tell you I have heard people claim he's said hyperinflation is coming - not true. Stocks are gonna crash - nope said keep buying them.

Gold is down a lot but he's was advocating it since $600 that I've heard and supposedly since it was $300.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by moda0306 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:51 pm

Kshartle,

Loving these debates as much as it seems like we get on each other.  I'm just on my iPhone and don't like getting into quoting debates.  Gumby's awesome at that stuff.  I can barely do it at a computer.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:03 pm

moda0306 wrote: Kshartle,

Loving these debates as much as it seems like we get on each other.  I'm just on my iPhone and don't like getting into quoting debates.  Gumby's awesome at that stuff.  I can barely do it at a computer.
I don't really do quotes either. I don't care much about what anybody else said. I've quoted Browne today quite a bit because obviously...it's a PP forum and it's Browne. I try to avoid quotes and links and stick to the ideas as much as possible.

I've heard Schiff say many foolish things in my opinion that I strongly disagree with. I have heard a lot of his critics attribute things though that are definitely not true so I'm curious about the specifics.

He's not the type of guy people generally have a lukewarm opinion of.

I enjoy debates immensely or I wouldn't be here. Sometimes my frustration manifests itself in lazy language that comes off worse than I intend.

That being said if we veer off track into a debate on Schiff I probably won't be too interested beyond a couple posts and we shouldn't derail this thread. They do get long in the tooth here fairly quick.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Gumby » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:10 pm

Kshartle wrote:He's said the economy would not recover as long as QE was occuring.
We aren't in a recovery?
Kshartle wrote:He's never said we're going to have hyperinflation.
Oh reeaallly?!?!

Here are a few videos where he says that hyperinflation is "inevitable" if we continue with current policies.

http://youtu.be/1Zh_mjS8bQg
http://youtu.be/HEzZGsrm9Ic
http://youtu.be/M4v5x932cNE

And here is a YouTube channel, called the SchittReport that chronicles all of his blown calls:

http://www.youtube.com/user/SchittReport/videos

You really want to side with this guy? There's even a video of Gary Schilling laughing in Schiff's face at his ignorance. Schiff is a political pundit masquerading as an economist. Everything out of his mouth is just political opinions with no facts or data to back them up.
Kshartle wrote:Now timing is a different story. If he's said he thought the crash would happen by '11 or '12 then definately wrong. Timing is impossible. Imagine being asked that question everytime you're on TV. You predict a crash and everyone wants to know when.
I'm sorry, but in the videos, above, he predicted "hyperinflation" if we continue down our current course. You say he never predicted hyperinflation (even though he clearly did), but that's what his inflationary "crash" is.
Kshartle wrote:He's not right about everything but I'm curious what you think he's been dead wrong on.
Pretty much everything. He thought QE was going to cause hyperinflation — and he still does. The TV hosts literally make fun of his hyperinflation calls in those clips and snicker at his responses.

If Harry Browne taught us one thing, it's to not listen to any wild predictions from market gurus — since they rarely ever come true.
Last edited by Gumby on Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by moda0306 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:19 pm

Gumby,

I don't know if I could exist here without you. We must get a beer sometime.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Gumby » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:22 pm

moda0306 wrote: Gumby,

I don't know if I could exist here without you. We must get a beer sometime.
Cheers!
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:27 pm

Gumby wrote:
Kshartle wrote:He's said the economy would not recover as long as QE was occuring.
We aren't in a recovery?
Are you serious?
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Gumby » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:34 pm

Kshartle wrote:He's never said we're going to have hyperinflation
Unfortunately for you, he's now quite famous for his ongoing blown hyperinflation calls...
Peter Schiff wrote:The Fed printing money, and government growing, and trying to keep interest rates at zero, if we keep doing this we will eventually have hyperinflation. So my bet is that, at some point, the specter of hyperinflation is so enormous, and the dangers are so apparent, that will change, but before we get to that point, we're going to have very, very high inflation. I mean, much, much higher than anything we had in the 1970s. I don't know whether or not you want to consider that to be hyperinflation if inflation is at 30% a year or 40% a year. You know,  technically is that hyperinflation? Probably not. It's pretty damn high. But, I think it's gonna get that bad before we have enough pressure to do something to turn this situation around.

Source: http://youtu.be/HEzZGsrm9Ic
Yes, you heard it here, folks. We are going to have "hyperinflation" from asset swaps that don't make anyone feel richer.

What a joke.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Gumby » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:41 pm

Kshartle wrote:
Gumby wrote:
Kshartle wrote:He's said the economy would not recover as long as QE was occuring.
We aren't in a recovery?
Are you serious?
I never said the economy is doing "great", but the data is certainly showing some improvement (i.e. good industrial production numbers, but sluggish Total industry capacity utilization). That's what a recovery looks like (albeit a really slow one).
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:45 pm

Gumby wrote:
Kshartle wrote:He's never said we're going to have hyperinflation.
Oh reeaallly?!?!

Here are a few videos where he says that hyperinflation is "inevitable" if we continue with current policies.

http://youtu.be/1Zh_mjS8bQg
http://youtu.be/HEzZGsrm9Ic
http://youtu.be/M4v5x932cNE
Wow these are the three clips you found? I never saw these interviews. I hope you have more and I would encourage everyone to take a look at them. You will hopefully learn something from them.

I clarified my staement before you posted to not saying it was inevitable. Obviously he's said in these that it's only if they keep printing without end there will be hyperinflation. Everyone knows this already so it's not exactly an impressive claim.  He said he expects them to stop because hyperinflation is something they won't want to deal with.. I think it's quite clear he said he doesn't expect it even after they ask him three or four times even.
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Re: How many people agree with MR/MT theory described on the forum

Post by Kshartle » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:49 pm

Gumby wrote:
Kshartle wrote:He's never said we're going to have hyperinflation
Unfortunately for you, he's now quite famous for his ongoing blown hyperinflation calls...
Peter Schiff wrote:The Fed printing money, and government growing, and trying to keep interest rates at zero, if we keep doing this we will eventually have hyperinflation. So my bet is that, at some point, the specter of hyperinflation is so enormous, and the dangers are so apparent, that will change, but before we get to that point, we're going to have very, very high inflation. I mean, much, much higher than anything we had in the 1970s. I don't know whether or not you want to consider that to be hyperinflation if inflation is at 30% a year or 40% a year. You know,  technically is that hyperinflation? Probably not. It's pretty damn high. But, I think it's gonna get that bad before we have enough pressure to do something to turn this situation around.

Source: http://youtu.be/HEzZGsrm9Ic
Yes, you heard it here, folks. We are going to have "hyperinflation" from asset swaps that don't make anyone feel richer.

What a joke.
Did you even read what you copied?

How does:

"So my bet is that, at some point, the specter of hyperinflation is so enormous, and the dangers are so apparent, that we'll change, but before we get to that point, we're going to have very, very high inflation."

turn into: "Yes, you heard it here, folks. We are going to have "hyperinflation" from asset swaps that don't make anyone feel richer."


This is a stretch even for you.
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