Why Obama won

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notsheigetz
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Why Obama won

Post by notsheigetz »

I was listening to the talking heads on Fox discussing why Obama won and they talked about changing demographics, the hispanic vote, people wanting something for nothing, and on and on.

My own theory boils down to the question I heard that was asked in exit polling - does he care about people like me? I think that is probably what resonates most with people. See the election of FDR to four terms despite failed economic policies (not that you would know they were failed if you only read approved history books). So ask yourself, in American of 2012, knowing what you know now, do you think a straight-laced Mormon who had never smoked, drank, or whatever will fare better than the candidate below - especially when said candidate really seems like he is just WAY cool and has it all together?

And for the record I actually DO have hope despite the election.  I'll bet neither Stalin or Mao ever enjoyed a reefer like that. But I could be wrong.

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Re: Why Obama won

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notsheigetz wrote:So ask yourself, in American of 2012, knowing what you know now, do you think a straight-laced Mormon who had never smoked, drank, or whatever will fare better than the candidate below - especially when said candidate really seems like he is just WAY cool and has it all together?
I don't understand the question. Are we supposed to judge a person by how many beers or smokes he's had? Or do you think people had that in mind when they went into the voting booth?

I'm pretty sure most people voted for Obama for a wide range of reasons.
Last edited by Gumby on Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by melveyr »

Let me get this straight...

If I believe in gay marriage, legal abortions, and a progressive tax structure, then I should vote for Mitt Romney why? This isn't a beauty contest and there are serious ideological differences. It's not that hard to understand why someone would vote for one candidate over the other. Obama being "cool" is just the cherry on top of an ideological sundae, not the reason he was elected president of the United States.
Last edited by melveyr on Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Pointedstick »

I'm with melveyr. The Republican coalition is rapidly shrinking, and in order to retain their chances of winning majorities, they're going to have to accept something that they don't currently like, be it the mainstreaming of gays, abortion remaining available and relatively unencumbered, marijuana legalization, or the demographic growth of Hispanics. Honestly, I think their best bet is with Hispanics because many of them are religious and conservative, but a hard right stance on immigration is a deal-breaker for them. George W. Bush actually realized this and tried to chart a moderate path on immigration, but his own party crucified him for it.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by RuralEngineer »

Obama won because his political team are geniuses.  The broke the electorate up into segments based upon their core issue.  Most people have a one or two issues that are the driving force behind how they vote.  This doesn't show up in general elections as much because of the way certain issues go together (gay marriage, abortion, social programs, immigration, etc.).  It shows up more in primaries.

So, what Obama's team did was they wrote off the demographics that they probably couldn't win and focused on promising stuff to the ones they could win.  Obama went from anti-gay marriage to Liberace without the frilly shirt.  Gay's and gay supporters locked in.  He circumvented congress to grant temporary amnesty to a portion of the illegal population.  The Hispanic vote, locked in.  He mandated all employers must provide birth control, even ones who can't on religious grounds and self insure.  The women's vote, locked in (due to single women more-so than married women).  He's black and a democrat...black vote, locked in.  He circumvented congress to redefine "work" and neutered Clinton's welfare reform.  The social program liberal vote, locked in.

Now Obama didn't ever have much fear of these groups voting for Romney.  Romney's entire campaign was based on hoping that Obama's performance on the economy would depress turn out in his base.  Obama's strategy was to promise enough "stuff" to various groups to ensure that enthusiasm was high.

Obviously it was a very successful strategy.
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Re: Why Obama won

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I'm with RuralEngineer and Rush Limbaugh on why Obama won.  RE said:  "Obama's strategy was to promise enough "stuff" to various groups to ensure that enthusiasm was high."  Rush said: "In a country of children where the option is Santa Claus or work, what wins?"

Let's just hope the candy jar does not run dry and we end up with a nation full of crying children who suddenly realize Santa Claus is daddy, and daddy, not Santa Claus, is responsible for helping the family achieve their dreams.  Otherwise we better get ready for 2016 sporting a ticket of Mooch and Holder (assuming Holder isn't on the Supreme Court by then).  Scary thoughts!

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Re: Why Obama won

Post by WildAboutHarry »

Pointedstick wrote:The Republican coalition is rapidly shrinking, and in order to retain their chances of winning majorities, they're going to have to accept something that they don't currently like, be it the mainstreaming of gays, abortion remaining available and relatively unencumbered, marijuana legalization, or the demographic growth of Hispanics.
As always, California leads the way.  If PS is correct and you want to see what a one-party democratic republic looks like, watch California.  It ain't pretty now, and it is about to get uglier.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by WiseOne »

That's one way to look at it.  May I offer another view?

The Republican Party's fiscal policy has a lot to recommend it, but that's not what defines them.  Rather, it's their social agenda.  Strictly speaking, the only people who have nothing to fear from the Republican Party are straight white, fundamentalist Christian men.  The rest of us have cause to fear that we could be denied basic human rights if the party ever truly carried out its platform.  I don't regard, for example, rape being taken seriously as a "candy store" gift to women.

For better or worse, many people cast their votes on these types of emotional issues.  The Republicans lost because they have deliberately alienated a large and growing majority of the US population.  If they ever want their fiscal policy to be taken seriously, they need to relegate religious and moral issues to the personal sphere, where they belong.  I don't see any signs of this happening, but one can only hope.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Gumby »

Well said, WiseOne. I found it amusing that Fox News basically spent all of yesterday bewildered and coming up with excuses as to "why Obama won". But, you nailed it. They seem oblivious that they've alienated the majority of the country.

Watching Karl Rove's freakout on live TV was a thing of beauty. As reality set in on Fox, election night was summed up by Megyn Kelly's telling words...

"Is this just math that you do as a Republican to make yourself feel better, or is this real?" - Megyn Kelly
Last edited by Gumby on Thu Nov 08, 2012 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by moda0306 »

I knew there was a reason I kind of liked Megyn Kelly, and I'm glad it's not just her good looks!

And is Obama really the one trying to flip-flop his way into promising Americans exactly what they want to hear?  He moved on gay marriage, though I think a lot of people over 40 have moved heavily on that topic in the last decade (my parents have).  Romney's literally transformed himself at every turn to be whoever he has to be, or thinks he has to be, to win the election.

His meandering on the taxes and spending overall is probably the biggest candy-store farce I've seen. "We'll cut spending, but only on Big Bird, but we'll increase spending on the military... and we'll cut taxes!, but balance it out with loophole cuts.... which ones?... we'll tell you after I'm elected... and we'll balance the budget by 2020!"
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Gumby »

Nothing I say should be construed as advice or expertise. I am only sharing opinions which may or may not be applicable in any given case.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by WildAboutHarry »

Today's main headline from the Sacramento Bee:

State Dems see supermajority, vow restraint

Right...
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by flyingpylon »

WildAboutHarry wrote: Today's main headline from the Sacramento Bee:

State Dems see supermajority, vow restraint

Right...
Kind of funny... in Indiana the Republicans achieved a super majority, and they are saying the same thing.

Guess we'll see how it works out.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by WildAboutHarry »

flyingpylon wrote:Kind of funny... in Indiana the Republicans achieved a super majority, and they are saying the same thing.
Interesting.  Anytime any politician "vows restraint" hold your wallet and head for the door.

California still mostly requires a supermajority to pass tax increases.  So, with a supermajority held by one party, there is no longer any need to persuade members of the opposition party to join a tax increase bill.

Same in Indiana?
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by flyingpylon »

I don't think so.  Not that (generally speaking) the Republicans are going to be trying to raise taxes anyway.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by upside »

LOL at the idea of Obama being "cool."

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Re: Why Obama won

Post by RuralEngineer »

WiseOne wrote: That's one way to look at it.  May I offer another view?

The Republican Party's fiscal policy has a lot to recommend it, but that's not what defines them.  Rather, it's their social agenda.  Strictly speaking, the only people who have nothing to fear from the Republican Party are straight white, fundamentalist Christian men.  The rest of us have cause to fear that we could be denied basic human rights if the party ever truly carried out its platform.  I don't regard, for example, rape being taken seriously as a "candy store" gift to women.

For better or worse, many people cast their votes on these types of emotional issues.  The Republicans lost because they have deliberately alienated a large and growing majority of the US population.  If they ever want their fiscal policy to be taken seriously, they need to relegate religious and moral issues to the personal sphere, where they belong.  I don't see any signs of this happening, but one can only hope.
Why can't both be right?  The Republicans have ignored the demographics of this nation and are hosed long term.  The USA is going to look like California.  The democratic party might split up if it gets large enough, but conservatives are going to be a permanent minority.  Republicans doomed themselves when they didn't fix the immigration system when they had the chance.  Mitch Daniels likely had my vote when he said we needed to put all the social issues on the shelf and just focus on the economy until our country isn't burning down around our ears.

Don't get me wrong, Romney was flip flopping like a mad man to try and get rid of his moderate "taint" and appease the Republican base.  Severely conservative my ass.  It's just that the electorate's demographics play better to Obama's candy store campaigning than Romneys.  More people want Obama's candy.

At the end of the day, regardless of who's handing it out, "stuff" costs money.  Some of the policies required to pay for the "stuff" impedes our ability to pay for more.  It's not sustainable and neither party is going to fix things.  I'm a libertarian, for whatever that's worth, but I no longer believe there is a political solution to our problems.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Bean »

Who cares what color someone is?! Sweet, you convinced orange people to hate purple people in overwhelming numbers and then vote. This is the definition of race baiting.

Why can't we have policies and politicians that focus on EVERYONE. Divide and conquer politics make Americans look gullible and overly stupid.

Basically getting an overwhelming majority of orange or purple people, makes me sad. :(
Last edited by Bean on Thu Nov 08, 2012 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Why Obama won

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Bean wrote: Who cares what color someone is?! Sweet, you convinced orange people to hate purple people in overwhelming numbers and then vote. This is the definition of race baiting.

Why can't we have policies and politicians that focus on EVERYONE. Divide and conquer politics make Americans look gullible and overly stupid.

Basically getting an overwhelming majority of orange or purple people, makes me sad. :(
Frankly, this is absurd.  The reality is that the GOP platform convinced purple and orange people (is that what you're calling hispanics and asians?) to vote for the only real alternative.  When you rhetoric is "self deportation" you might turn off a few people who's parents or grandparents were immigrants.
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Re: Why Obama won

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Like it or not, Storm is right that the GOP has a major racial problem. They turned off Hispanics in a huge way during this election by trotting out a procession of ever more extreme immigration ideas. Hispanics are a gigantic and growing constituency. What I don't understand is why the GOP can't see that Hispanics have a lot of natural socially conservative inclinations! They're religious. They don't like abortion. They like guns. They're not as tolerant of gays as upper-middle class white liberals. All the GOP has to do is not tell them they'd deport all the illegal immigrants and they may start to scoop up some of those votes.
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Re: Why Obama won

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Pointedstick wrote: Like it or not, Storm is right that the GOP has a major racial problem. They turned off Hispanics in a huge way during this election by trotting out a procession of ever more extreme immigration ideas. Hispanics are a gigantic and growing constituency. What I don't understand is why the GOP can't see that Hispanics have a lot of natural socially conservative inclinations! They're religious. They don't like abortion. They like guns. They're not as tolerant of gays as upper-middle class white liberals. All the GOP has to do is not tell them they'd deport all the illegal immigrants and they may start to scoop up some of those votes.
The problem isn't the illegal immigrants already here, an amnesty would likely be acceptable to a majority of the Republican base.  The problem is most conservatives want a permanent fix for immigration.  That means putting a stop to all the aspects of our society that are so alluring that it causes millions upon millions of people to break the law getting here.  An attempt to implement anything short of an open border policy is going to alienate a huge portion of the Hispanic electorate, probably a majority.  Again, most people have one key issue that drives their vote.  For most Hispanics it seems to be immigration.

Conservatives could get tons of votes if they become open border, pro-choice, big government redistributionists.  Of course, then they'd be democrats.

We have grid-lock in this country because roughly 50% of the population is in total disagreement with the other 50%.  Careful wording of your parties platform isn't going to make that go away.  Any politician that doesn't pander to the various demographics within his base risks poor voter turnout or a move to a third party.
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Re: Why Obama won

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RuralEngineer wrote: The problem isn't the illegal immigrants already here, an amnesty would likely be acceptable to a majority of the Republican base.  The problem is most conservatives want a permanent fix for immigration.  That means putting a stop to all the aspects of our society that are so alluring that it causes millions upon millions of people to break the law getting here.  An attempt to implement anything short of an open border policy is going to alienate a huge portion of the Hispanic electorate, probably a majority.  Again, most people have one key issue that drives their vote.  For most Hispanics it seems to be immigration.

Conservatives could get tons of votes if they become open border, pro-choice, big government redistributionists.  Of course, then they'd be democrats.
But they don't have to do that at all. Republicans' fiscal priorities are much more popular than their social ones. I think Hispanics would be fine with a guest-worker system with a path to citizenship, for example, coupled with amnesty for existing illegal immigrants. Is that an "open borders" policy? It doesn't sound like it to me, but then again, I'll admit that the issue doesn't really get me that worked up. If they did that, they could clinch Hispanics and not need to compromise on abortion or redistribution. Then they could double down on their much more popular fiscal priorities, many of which even elicit support from some moderate Democrats.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by Bean »

Star Trek wins again at pointing out cultural flaws that bleed into politics
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by foglifter »

Folks, please allow me to share the burden of my thoughts on the topic. I spent the last 2 days thinking, analyzing, contemplating and just can't stand my solitude anymore. I jumped into this thread with hope to make sense of the moment we live in and I need to hear your opinions.

I've been sad for the last 2 days. I was not surprised by Obama's win, but certainly disappointed. Now that everybody including mass media, bloggers, politicians etc. is sharing all kinds of analyses of the election outcome and its short- and long-term effects it's probably a good time to pause and think.

Here's a detailed chart of how various groups voted:
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Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... itics.html

There are multiple factors that played together in favor of Obama's victory. Some of these factors are obvious, others are more subtle. I understand that changing demographics is one of the major factors that GOP underestimated. Obama got 71% of Hispanic vote, 90% of African-American vote, 2/3 of women and lots of youth vote. Romney got a majority of white, military, seniors, religious vote. But what really makes me sad is the fact that if we really look under the hood at the main reason each group voted for Obama we will see that sometimes these reasons are really subjective and can't be explained by a belief that the candidate they vote for will implement the policies that economically or socially benefit them.

Below are just my raw thoughts about some of the social groups along with my (mostly) rhetorical questions:

Hispanics: most of them are Catholics or have Catholic background and hence social issues are important for them, but the prevailing issue for them appears to be the immigration reform. Certainly Obama's decision to grant legal status to children of illegal immigrants played in his favor. The immigration reform is not an easy task: if it were easy, it would be done. But what kind of immigration reform would satisfy them? I don't understand why some people consider deportation of illegal immigrants wrong. Obviously we can't open the borders and accept everyone who wants to live here. Honestly, I don't have an answer to this question, I hope someone will find an answer, sooner or later.

74% of African-Americans consider themselves Christians (59% mainline Protestant, 15% Evangelical). If 97% of black Protestants voted for Obama does that mean that for one day only they put their pro-life, pro-family values on the back-burner and voted, paraphrasing Martin Luther King Jr., "because of the color of his skin rather than the content of his character".?

Youth: Obama got less votes compared to 2008, but still majority of young people voted for him. Obama is a young charismatic speaker, he looks cool, he acts cool - and this certainly appeals to the youth. His image is certainly different from the "rich white guy" stereotype, which is so disliked by the "Occupy something" generation. So could it be that our youth dismisses the high unemployment, the growing debt that THEY will have to deal with one day, the student debt bubble, the coming Social Security crisis and other issues and vote "by heart" for a cool guy?

To summarize in one sentence how I feel about the election outcome and the state of the country: we are divided. And that makes me sad.

But I still believe there is hope. Because I have something bigger than the whole world to believe in.
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Re: Why Obama won

Post by WiseOne »

I think Bill O'Reilly said it best:
It's not a traditional America anymore.
Translation:  Blacks, Asians, Hispanics, women, purple people, orange people, etc are not "Americans" in the eyes of the GOP.  It's not about "wanting favors".  What favors do you think the Asians earning > $100K were looking for?

Maybe the best outcome is for the GOP to become the splinter group that gets kicked out of the debates, and the Libertarians to become the 2nd major party.  That would be great.
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