Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024

[vnatale]

Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2023/10/16 ... 4107145G5I


“People think I’m crazy when I say the stock market will go down 86% on the S&P — the worst case but also my most likely case,” Harry Dent Jr., the candid, controversial strategist, argues in an interview with ThinkAdvisor.

“People say, ‘Harry, the Fed won’t let that happen,’” says Dent. “Well, in the end, when there’s a battle between God and central bankers, I’m going to bet on God!”

Several of Dent’s forecasts have been off-base, but the “Contrarian’s Contrarian” has been on target with some significant prognostications.

[Pointedstick]

Is there a reason to take this guy seriously? From what I can tell, here's the reason he gives for his prediction:

I didn’t think it would be possible to keep pumping up something [the economy] on pure fumes — just printing money, throwing money into the markets, which keeps the rich, rich and spending.

It suggests to me that this guy is one of the many voices filling their air with ignorable nonsense about "money printing," who have have been predicting doom and gloom with little accuracy for generations--because they're either ignorant of the way a modern fiat currency economy actually works, or else they do know and are trying to bamboozle people.

[D1984]

Is there a reason to take this guy seriously? From what I can tell, here's the reason he gives for his prediction:

I didn’t think it would be possible to keep pumping up something [the economy] on pure fumes — just printing money, throwing money into the markets, which keeps the rich, rich and spending.

It suggests to me that this guy is one of the many voices filling their air with ignorable nonsense about "money printing," who have have been predicting doom and gloom with little accuracy for generations--because they're either ignorant of the way a modern fiat currency economy actually works, or else they do know and are trying to bamboozle people.

To be fair he was not always predicting doom....

He wrote a book called "The Roaring 2000s" about how the 2000s were going to be a better decade for the economy and for stocks than even the 1990s.

It came out at around the exact same time the market reached the late 1999/early 2000 highs that were not to be seen again (in real terms) until 2013 (after two recessions--including one that could've became a depression had things turned out a bit differently--and two rather severe bear markets).

So give Mr. Dent a little credit. If you are either a perma-bear doomer or a perma-bull optimist, the law of averages alone (and the fact that markets can rise or fall sharply in a very short amount of time) says that at least at some point in time you will eventually have called it right.

It takes real skill to screw up so badly that you make both the perma-bear and the perma-bull call at exactly the wrong moments, and Harry Dent nailed it both times.

LOL.

[boglerdude]

question is how long will the Fed wait to step in (and why). IIRC there were only a few months to dump long bonds and buy stocks in 2020. They have the "legal" authority now that they didnt in 2009.

[vnatale]

Is there a reason to take this guy seriously? From what I can tell, here's the reason he gives for his prediction:

I didn’t think it would be possible to keep pumping up something [the economy] on pure fumes — just printing money, throwing money into the markets, which keeps the rich, rich and spending.

It suggests to me that this guy is one of the many voices filling their air with ignorable nonsense about "money printing," who have have been predicting doom and gloom with little accuracy for generations--because they're either ignorant of the way a modern fiat currency economy actually works, or else they do know and are trying to bamboozle people.

To be fair he was not always predicting doom....

He wrote a book called "The Roaring 2000s" about how the 2000s were going to be a better decade for the economy and for stocks than even the 1990s.

It came out at around the exact same time the market reached the late 1999/early 2000 highs that were not to be seen again (in real terms) until 2013 (after two recessions--including one that could've became a depression had things turned out a bit differently--and two rather severe bear markets).

So give Mr. Dent a little credit. If you are either a perma-bear doomer or a perma-bull optimist, the law of averages alone (and the fact that markets can rise or fall sharply in a very short amount of time) says that at least at some point in time you will eventually have called it right.

It takes real skill to screw up so badly that you make both the perma-bear and the perma-bull call at exactly the wrong moments, and Harry Dent nailed it both times.

LOL.

Is your "both" including this 2024 prediction as one of them?

[D1984]

Is there a reason to take this guy seriously? From what I can tell, here's the reason he gives for his prediction:

I didn’t think it would be possible to keep pumping up something [the economy] on pure fumes — just printing money, throwing money into the markets, which keeps the rich, rich and spending.

It suggests to me that this guy is one of the many voices filling their air with ignorable nonsense about "money printing," who have have been predicting doom and gloom with little accuracy for generations--because they're either ignorant of the way a modern fiat currency economy actually works, or else they do know and are trying to bamboozle people.

To be fair he was not always predicting doom....

He wrote a book called "The Roaring 2000s" about how the 2000s were going to be a better decade for the economy and for stocks than even the 1990s.

It came out at around the exact same time the market reached the late 1999/early 2000 highs that were not to be seen again (in real terms) until 2013 (after two recessions--including one that could've became a depression had things turned out a bit differently--and two rather severe bear markets).

So give Mr. Dent a little credit. If you are either a perma-bear doomer or a perma-bull optimist, the law of averages alone (and the fact that markets can rise or fall sharply in a very short amount of time) says that at least at some point in time you will eventually have called it right.

It takes real skill to screw up so badly that you make both the perma-bear and the perma-bull call at exactly the wrong moments, and Harry Dent nailed it both times.

LOL.

Is your "both" including this 2024 prediction as one of them?

Nope, just the super-bullish prediction in late 1999/early 2000 and the "get out of the market, another Great Depression is fully upon us" prediction on January 6, 2009 (his 2009 book was titled The Great Depression Ahead: How to Prosper in the Crash Following the Greatest Boom in History and came out maybe two months before the exact 2009 market bottom in which equities hit a 12-year low and immediately after which US stocks embarked on a bull market that didn't see a true -20% or more bear until 2020). Truly impeccable timing, that one.

I guess I would say that if his current prediction ends up as "accurate" as those two then he would be aiming for a triple play.....except.....

He also managed to author and publish a book in early 2006 (titled The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010) touting how 2007 to 2010 were going to be absolute boom times for US stocks and for residential real estate (ha ha ha....we all know how that one turned out).

So I guess if 2024 doesn't turn out to be an absolute bust we can say he achieved a grand slam....spectacularly wrong all four times.

[dualstow]

Can’t wait to hear what Jeremy Grantham has to say. “This time…”
Or that guy who’s been advertising on the finance news channels for 2 years saying something terrible is coming.

[barrett]

Can’t wait to hear what Jeremy Grantham has to say. “This time…”
Or that guy who’s been advertising on the finance news channels for 2 years saying something terrible is coming.

Man, this got me thinking about Jim Rickards and the first hit I got was a a podcast from 2/2/23 in which he predicted S&P of 2,200 by the middle of the year "once the recession was obvious to everyone."

Considering the length of time that Rickards has been a doomer, the S&P should be at zero by now. These guys should have to lose a body part or something each time they are so god awful wrong. Or maybe they could just be introduced as "the guy who has been so shitty at predicting for so long".

[dualstow]

Ha! That’s why I love that old joke, He’s predicted 10 of the last 2 recessions.

[dualstow]

…
Or that guy who’s been advertising on the finance news channels for 2 years saying something terrible is coming.

Marc Chaikin. Last couple years the sky was falling. Now he’s suddenly selling the “chance to triple your money!”

[Smith1776]

Despite Harry Dent's (Two-Face?) poor track record of forecasting the market, which is typical of prognosticators in general, his methodological focus on demographics remains interesting to me.

[GT]

Has anyone found a site that tracks the gurus' predictions?

From the article below looks like it was Michael Burry that predicted the great 2023 stock crash.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/b ... r-AA1mtzO6

[vnatale]

Has anyone found a site that tracks the gurus' predictions?

From the article below looks like it was Michael Burry that predicted the great 2023 stock crash.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/b ... r-AA1mtzO6

I'm forgetting the name of the newsletter which used to track the performances of many newsletters' recommendation and report them in his monthly newsletter.

No surprise that it's changed its format since I last subscribed to it in the 90s.

Here is today:

https://hulbertratings.com/12-month-scoreboard/

[GT]

Has anyone found a site that tracks the gurus' predictions?

From the article below looks like it was Michael Burry that predicted the great 2023 stock crash.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/b ... r-AA1mtzO6

I'm forgetting the name of the newsletter which used to track the performances of many newsletters' recommendation and report them in his monthly newsletter.

No surprise that it's changed its format since I last subscribed to it in the 90s.

Here is today:

https://hulbertratings.com/12-month-scoreboard/

Thank you Vinny - Very entertaining reviewing the data

[boglerdude]

Fell for the narrative and bought a rental in 05 which everyone says was near peak of bubble. But even if I'd thought about the fundamentals, I would have been looking at prices and hand-wringing daily for ~3 years before prices fell below 05. Depending on how valuable your headspace is, might not be worth it. And now its a new game because you have to get the macro right, somehow time deflation right (musical chairs, see Margin Call) and time the Fed bailout right.

That said, market doom porn will always sell and someone has to provide it. So, when robots do the farming and build the cars and homes, how is the S&P going to increase net profit. There wont be anything to extract from people with no jobs. S&P could swallow small business, buy up single family homes...

Decent channel covering Trump kabuki theater
https://www.youtube.com/@VivaFrei/videos

Vids of what our social credit system will look like
https://twitter.com/songpinganq

[I Shrugged]

To me, the housing crash of 07-08 was the most obvious thing I had ever seen. I didn't know how to play it so I just watched it happen and take my stocks down with it. Since it was so obvious in advance to me, I can't get too excited about the people who famously did call it. I'd be more interested in all of the idiots who were on the wrong side, and would definitely try to avoid their advice.

Over my 40 years or so of investing, I've decided that when it comes to stocks, no one is worth listening to.

Bonds are a different story, because Gary Shilling was right for decades. So I would pay a lot of attention to what he says about bonds, until proven wrong for a few years. He's not got that many years left, I don't suppose.

Gold, I pay no attention to anyone. Whether you read a bull opinion or bear opinion, it will be totally worthless.

Interest rates, it's all up to governments these days. Harry B used to say that betting against the government was the safest bet there was. But that was back when the private sector had a say. Daddy, tell me again about the bond vigilantes!