Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

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I Shrugged
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Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Sep 02, 2022 11:08 am

How bad will this get this winter?
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Mountaineer » Fri Sep 02, 2022 12:14 pm

https://youtu.be/BGLGzRXY5Bw

The prediction.

It’s happened before. Let them eat cake. 😱
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Pointedstick » Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:47 pm

Seems like pretty bad. I have two colleagues in the UK who say their energy bills have quadrupled recently. Quadrupled!

A German colleague is kicking himself for replacing his oil boiler and tank with a new one a few years ago instead of the heat pumps I recommended at the time. Now he's looking into heat pumps, but with scarcer funds and a stranded fossil burner asset to deal with. It feels a bit like a microcosm of what's happening on a worldwide scale to countries that double down on fossil fuels instead of embracing new energy generation methods--or even nukes! Sometimes the conservative choice is the riskiest one of all.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Kbg » Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:22 pm

The world got fairly complacent for a while. Europe's energy policy was "interesting" from a security standpoint to say the least.

Can't throw too many stones though. Our industrial policy is "interesting" as well. With the world we live in it is stunning we didn't see the need to preserve a high tech chip fabrication capability at the scale needed. Surrounded by two oceans one would think shipbuilding might be a good thing to be good at as well,
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Sep 06, 2022 5:03 pm

I watched a English language video from a French news site that said France is going to restart 35 or so nuclear reactors. Imagine that.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by vnatale » Tue Sep 06, 2022 5:12 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 5:03 pm

I watched a English language video from a French news site that said France is going to restart 35 or so nuclear reactors. Imagine that.


I'm come a long way from being 100% anti-nuclear to now believing it has its place. All those nuclear submarines are using it every day. But, still. That clause in our homeowners policies not covering us for nuclear accidents.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Pointedstick » Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:44 pm

France went all in on nukes a few decades ago, which was a good geopolitical bet during a time when solar and wind weren't yet economically practical. And even today, nukes are great in the same way fossil fuels remain great: they have an absurdly high power to weight ratio. That's why both of them are so good at moving large heavy vehicles.

But today, consuming these resources in stationary generators on land to produce energy for buildings bypasses that major advantage and strikes me as the product of obsolete thinking. Now we have better options that are cheaper, more resilient, and require no vulnerable fuel supply chain: solar, wind, and deep borehole geothermal. IMO we should save the fossil burners and nukes for vehicles where they still shine, until the point when technology comes along that can fully replace them. ...Which is currently happening for passenger cars, and I expect it to happen for larger vehicles soon too. Airplanes will probably be burning hydrogen (which can be produced anywhere via condensation and electrolysis) in their engines rather than jet fuel within my lifetime.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Dieter » Wed Sep 07, 2022 12:39 am

Pointedstick wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:44 pm
France went all in on nukes a few decades ago, which was a good geopolitical bet during a time when solar and wind weren't yet economically practical. And even today, nukes are great in the same way fossil fuels remain great: they have an absurdly high power to weight ratio. That's why both of them are so good at moving large heavy vehicles.

But today, consuming these resources in stationary generators on land to produce energy for buildings bypasses that major advantage and strikes me as the product of obsolete thinking. Now we have better options that are cheaper, more resilient, and require no vulnerable fuel supply chain: solar, wind, and deep borehole geothermal. IMO we should save the fossil burners and nukes for vehicles where they still shine, until the point when technology comes along that can fully replace them. ...Which is currently happening for passenger cars, and I expect it to happen for larger vehicles soon too. Airplanes will probably be burning hydrogen (which can be produced anywhere via condensation and electrolysis) in their engines rather than jet fuel within my lifetime.
Aye, but what can be brought up how fast?

So many countries put themselves into a situation where dependent on Russian gas

Alas, I include US for not doing more to get off fossil fuels
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Kbg » Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:32 am

I'm inclined to buying an EV in the not too distant future...but this summer's CA electrical grid situation is a pretty good case example of what needs to be fixed. Another downside is the charging length issue for longer trips. My friends who have them and who have gone on long road trips have all been negative in their comments.

If I were to buy today I would only buy a small "errands car."
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by vnatale » Wed Sep 07, 2022 12:31 pm

Kbg wrote:
Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:32 am

I'm inclined to buying an EV in the not too distant future...but this summer's CA electrical grid situation is a pretty good case example of what needs to be fixed. Another downside is the charging length issue for longer trips. My friends who have them and who have gone on long road trips have all been negative in their comments.

If I were to buy today I would only buy a small "errands car."


Who would want to put up with the long charging times during a trip?
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:06 pm

At the moment EVs are not as good as gas cars for long trips. Used to be the bottleneck was the car but now that's mostly fixed with the current and emerging crop of long-range fast charging EVs, and now the bottleneck is the charging network. Tesla's is the best but it's still not as ubiquitous and convenient as gas stations are. The non-Tesla network is expanding rapidly but reliability is subpar; it's something they really need to work on. But all of this is improving at breakneck speed, in societal terms.

When I decided to have EV as my family's only vehicle two and a half years ago, I made a frank appraisal of my driving habits and realized that I almost never went on long driving trips anyway, so I didn't think it made sense to optimize for it. So far I've been happy, as 99.9% of my driving is better with an EV. I've used public charging a few times on longer trips and it's been fine. With a 250 mile range EV, you're not charging more than once during the trip unless you're going really really far, in which case a plane might be more practical--at least that's how it's worked out for me. But admittedly I'm not a road trip guy.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by joypog » Wed Sep 07, 2022 8:37 pm

One could also rent a car for long trips.

My wife and I lived in Houston for a year and a half without a car.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by drumminj » Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:28 pm

Pointedstick wrote:
Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:44 pm
But today, consuming these resources in stationary generators on land to produce energy for buildings bypasses that major advantage and strikes me as the product of obsolete thinking. Now we have better options that are cheaper, more resilient, and require no vulnerable fuel supply chain: solar, wind, and deep borehole geothermal.
I've been wondering for a while now...do people knowingly ignore the possible side effects of these "renewable" options?

Harvesting wind has downstream effects - you're taking energy from the wind that would have "flowed" downstream somewhere....possible negative effects? Likely, but not sure.

Geothermal? You're either sucking energy/heat from the "earth" or shoving energy/heat in there. Side effects? Likely, but unsure...

Solar? Probably the same - energy that would have warmed the earth, or been absorbed by plants is now being diverted, or possibly some reflected back into space. What are the side effects?

I don't know the answer, but I've not seen anyone acknowledge that diverting energy from or to a system is likely to change that system, and this is what all of the "renewable" energy sources do -- same as fossil fuels. Just because we don't understand the consequences or can't yet model them doesn't mean that the impact is benign.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Sep 07, 2022 10:00 pm

Every action has side effects. Life has side effects. If you don't want to potentially have any negative side effects on anything, you can always jump off a cliff--a suggestion as absurd as suggesting to account for every photon or gust of wind.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by drumminj » Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:57 am

Pointedstick wrote:
Wed Sep 07, 2022 10:00 pm
Eyou can always jump off a cliff
That's not a very cordial response. Shame on me for trying to participate on this forum...
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Maddy » Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:22 am

[T]here has been an incredible failure of the media and those in positions of power to illustrate the true costs and deep corruption embedded in the use of wind and solar energy, specifically wind turbines. These costs range from unthinkable economic losses, immoral human labor usage, and an actual carbon footprint that far surpasses any potential “sustainable” wind energy impact. From dependency on China’s rare earth metals to reliance on forced labor, the wind energy industry is unjust and deeply unsustainable.
https://medium.com/la-fen%C3%AAtre-maga ... 7d308b2ca5
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 08, 2022 8:32 am

drumminj wrote:
Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:28 pm
possible negative effects?

I’m an advocate of new, renewable energy sources but I think the main known drawbacks are bird deaths. Reflected solar fries them and they get chewed up in wind turbines.

The things you mention- nah.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Kbg » Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:53 pm

I remain energy policy agnostic. I like it cheap and I also like it as minimally polluting as possible which are in conflict some but that's ok. We can ask for and expect both.

I'm also not an expert or very knowledgeable in the energy area, but I've learned over my life that you can learn from/build expectations/anticipate what might or is going to happen by noticing the heard is beginning to move in a new direction. At least with regard to automobiles, all of the car makers are moving to producing EVs now. Sure government policy is driving some of it, but just over the past two years there has been a such a change I think some hidden "hey this is going to work" bridge has been crossed from a technological standpoint. Another tell is the Saudis are actively diversifying. I don't much care for the Kingdom of Saud, but they do know the oil business.

A transition like this will most likely go beyond my remaining life span, but I definitely think fossil fuels are going into decline as a percentage of energy needs and it shall be seen if they become obsolete.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Sep 08, 2022 3:45 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:53 pm
I remain energy policy agnostic. I like it cheap and I also like it as minimally polluting as possible which are in conflict some but that's ok. We can ask for and expect both.

I'm also not an expert or very knowledgeable in the energy area, but I've learned over my life that you can learn from/build expectations/anticipate what might or is going to happen by noticing the heard is beginning to move in a new direction. At least with regard to automobiles, all of the car makers are moving to producing EVs now. Sure government policy is driving some of it, but just over the past two years there has been a such a change I think some hidden "hey this is going to work" bridge has been crossed from a technological standpoint. Another tell is the Saudis are actively diversifying. I don't much care for the Kingdom of Saud, but they do know the oil business.

A transition like this will most likely go beyond my remaining life span, but I definitely think fossil fuels are going into decline as a percentage of energy needs and it shall be seen if they become obsolete.
This pretty much sums up my view. I’m all for sustainable energy use and pursuing new ways to achieve it - economically now and in the future. My main concern is that I’m uncertain that “total life cycle analysis“ has been done on the various options. It appears a lot of sub-optimization has been foisted upon us in the name of “green”. What are the pros and cons from resource obtaining (like mining of all the necessary materials), transportation, conversion to usable materials and energy, supplying those materials and energy, disposal of waste materials, human impact, environmental impact, to human use of the various energy sources? Plus, who benefits and who loses from the various steps in the process? I personally just don’t think it has been very well thought through and communicated and publicized. Maybe I am off base and I have just not investigated thoroughly enough. Maybe I am biased because I feel this save the planet stuff is being rammed down my throat like all the woke culture bs. I guess I am more for saving people short and long term than riding another high horse and virtue signaling as our Titanic goes under.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Dieter » Thu Sep 08, 2022 4:46 pm

Re lack of “total life cycle analysis” — isn’t that the free market way? And getting others to pay for external impacts?

Yeah, said a little tongue in cheek, but, am I wrong?

Do we stop using petroleum based products until everyone can agree on the total life cycle costs and how to make the users of petroleum products pay for them?

Most (Every?) source of energy has its downsides, but I think we need diversify energy supply quickly
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:31 pm

Whenever environmentalists did total lifecycle cost analysis of fossil fuels and pointed out externalities like causing global warning (i.e. sea level rise, extreme heat waves and drought, stronger hurricanes and floods, etc), giving hundreds of millions of people asthma and other lung diseases, and precipitating resource wars in the middle east, they were laughed at. Even today we're only just starting to truly accept the truth of the scourge of leaded gasoline reducing the IQ of multiple generations. So I chuckle a bit when the people who ignored that stuff in the past start saying we need to do it for renewable energy sources and electrification. That dog don't hunt. If you wanna do it for one, do it for all.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:52 pm

Pointedstick wrote:
Thu Sep 08, 2022 5:31 pm
If you wanna do it for one, do it for all.
.

Amen!

.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Kbg » Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:04 pm

Given the complexity of something this big, I don't think a study would be worth the paper it was printed on. Pretty sure it's going to be thousands of Adam Smith's invisible hands making smaller "doable" decisions that push the noodle forward to wherever it is going.

The externalities thing is both a long understood feature of capitalism and very difficult to get at. Generally two things are required...the cost isn't so high that it won't be accepted and two, a lot of education to change people's minds. The latter probably being the more difficult and more effective.

For example...I'm also agnostic about climate change. The experts say it is indisputably happening. I'm like, sure they're the experts so why not?

On the flip side...

We know the earth has been hotter in its past

I live in the American west which everyone probably knows is in a very long term drought condition and the climate (winters specifically) are definitely not the same. However, there's also conclusive tree ring evidence that the American west goes through serious long term drought cycles about every 800-900 years...and this one is pretty nicely timing up with that cycle.

Man made or an earth cycle thing? IDK, but I'm not going to say it isn't man made either because my understanding is that there is scientific consensus about the issue.

A LONG post to simply say...things are often complex, and not infrequently, highly complex.
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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Pointedstick » Thu Sep 08, 2022 6:34 pm

I've posted it before, but even if you still don't believe that global warming is happening, and that it's our fault...

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Re: Scarce and high priced energy in Europe

Post by Maddy » Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:55 am

What's most obvious to me:

(1) That there is a group of people who want to believe that there is a Garden of Eden in which every want can be fulfilled without any corresponding cost. These generally are NOT the people who live simple, low-impact lives. They want all of the perks of modern living, including $70,000 EVs, and the ability to "self actualize" free of the constraints of work, and are continually in search of a technology that will allow them to claim that their quest for the next and better gadget is somehow bettering the world.

(2) That these people generally have an overinflated view of their intellectual abilities and, as a result, do not think it at all officious for them to prescribe how other people should live.

(3) That these people have a curious inability to comprehend, and incorporate in their views, the concept of a pluralistic society. They tend to view those who do not agree with them as ignorant and/or unwilling to see the truth. This is the "identity trap" described by Harry Browne. Other people are seen either as clones of oneself or as people who SHOULD be clones of oneself.
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