"The Bezzle"

Other discussions not related to the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3934
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

"The Bezzle"

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:07 pm

Interesting longread about the concept of "the bezzle" and economic fakery.

Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy
And as for him who lacks the courage to defend even his own soul: Let him not brag of his progressive views, boast of his status as an academician or a recognized artist, a distinguished citizen or general. Let him say to himself plainly: I am cattle, I am a coward, I seek only warmth and to eat my fill.
Solzhenitsyn, Live Not By Lies
whatchamacallit
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 522
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:32 pm

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:50 pm

I first heard about the bezzle from Emil reading this same essay I believe.

https://youtu.be/ohLzmVdeRdg
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2243
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by Kbg » Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:19 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:07 pm
Interesting longread about the concept of "the bezzle" and economic fakery.

Why the Bezzle Matters to the Economy
Excellent post, thanks! Sounds similar to Soro's theory of reflexivity.
barrett
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1747
Joined: Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:54 pm

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by barrett » Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am

Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationary, right? Or is cash potentially the big winner because of the optionality that it offers?
User avatar
Desert
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3292
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2010 2:39 pm

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by Desert » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:17 pm

Agreed, this is a really interesting article.
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2243
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by Kbg » Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:08 pm

barrett wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am
Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationary, right? Or is cash potentially the big winner because of the optionality that it offers?
Calling a top is one of the most difficult things to do. It's the old shorting saying...the market can go up longer than you can remain solvent.

In PP theory, LTTs are supposed to provide that pop and they still basically do that. However, now it would take the Fed stepping in to artificially send rates lower and/or make them negative. No one in history has had to deal with what is going on now and certainly it wasn't HB's data set when he developed the PP.

Cash is always good for the exact reason you stated.
User avatar
GT
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 223
Joined: Sun Jan 20, 2013 7:54 pm

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by GT » Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:15 pm

Kbg wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:08 pm
barrett wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:55 am
Yes, thanks for posting this! For those of you who have read the piece or are otherwise familiar with the bezzle, do you think that a PP-esque portfolio can withstand the unwinding stage? Does it follow that unwinding benefits high-quality long duration bonds? I mean, such an unwinding is deflationary, right? Or is cash potentially the big winner because of the optionality that it offers?
Calling a top is one of the most difficult things to do. It's the old shorting saying...the market can go up longer than you can remain solvent.

In PP theory, LTTs are supposed to provide that pop and they still basically do that. However, now it would take the Fed stepping in to artificially send rates lower and/or make them negative. No one in history has had to deal with what is going on now and certainly it wasn't HB's data set when he developed the PP.

Cash is always good for the exact reason you stated.
Not sure if this question should be spun off to another post .. but.. What is everyone's best guess as to what HB would be recommending if he still had his call in show?
User avatar
Mountaineer
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4557
Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:54 am

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by Mountaineer » Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:09 pm

Trust not in princes. They will ALWAYS let you down.
God’s will is truly strange to a moral person. God seeks not to reward virtue but to have mercy in the person of his son, Jesus Christ. From page 135, Luther’s Outlaw God by Steven D. Paulson.
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1651
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:58 am

GT wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:15 pm


Not sure if this question should be spun off to another post .. but.. What is everyone's best guess as to what HB would be recommending if he still had his call in show?
I've often wondered about this. I think others have too.
My best guess is that as long as the PP has not been broken, he wouldn't change it.
whatchamacallit
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 522
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:32 pm

Re: "The Bezzle"

Post by whatchamacallit » Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:44 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:58 am
GT wrote:
Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:15 pm


Not sure if this question should be spun off to another post .. but.. What is everyone's best guess as to what HB would be recommending if he still had his call in show?
I've often wondered about this. I think others have too.
My best guess is that as long as the PP has not been broken, he wouldn't change it.
Question is, what country would he store his gold.
Post Reply