Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

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Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Poll ended at Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:58 am

California
8
73%
Hawaii
0
No votes
Illinois
0
No votes
Massachusetts
0
No votes
Michigan
0
No votes
New Jersey
1
9%
New York
2
18%
Oregon
0
No votes
Washington
0
No votes
Other (explain)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 11
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Tortoise
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Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Tortoise » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:31 pm

For the purposes of this poll, let's assume "fully reopened" means both (1) the state government has lifted its mask mandate and (2) the state government has allowed most businesses, including restaurants and bars, to operate at 100% capacity.

The forum settings made me limit the poll to 10 options, so I tried my best to include the nine most likely states plus an "Other" option. If you select "Other", please post to name the state.
Last edited by Tortoise on Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Tortoise » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:32 pm

My prediction: California, because its governor follows the science most faithfully.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Mark Leavy » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:39 pm

Tossup. The fear is thick in WA and OR.

West Coast, Hawaii, Illinois or NY.

Hard to tell.

If I had to bet, Hawaii. Even though it is suicidal.

I have 6 weeks reserved for late May. I’m not holding my breath.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Mar 08, 2021 6:40 pm

I voted New Jersey.

LET THE HODLING OUT, BEGIN
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by WiseOne » Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:38 am

California for sure. New York will be second to last.

My university will likely not reopen until well after both of these have eliminated all restrictions. Basically I don't expect ever again to set foot in my office. Which suits me just fine!
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by jalanlong » Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:28 am

I voted California but Newsome’s recall makes it less likely to me. He recently re-opened Disneyland and I attribute that to taking the heat off of himself a bit. I think he may reopen quicker than anticipated to stop the backlash.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:41 pm

jalanlong wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:28 am
I voted California but Newsome’s recall makes it less likely to me. He recently re-opened Disneyland and I attribute that to taking the heat off of himself a bit. I think he may reopen quicker than anticipated to stop the backlash.
I had heard rumors last week that Newsom was going to hold a surprise news conference and mostly reopen CA to shield himself from some of the recall heat, but when Texas reopened and Newsom tweeted the response "Absolutely reckless", that hope vanished.

My understanding is that most of the support for Newsom's recall isn't because of the lockdowns and restrictions themselves, but because of Newsom getting caught multiple times violating his own mandates (e.g., the French Laundry scandal).

In other words, Californians are angry about Newsom's hypocrisy, not about his lockdowns and restrictions. If they're successful in recalling him, they'll simply elect another leftist governor who will most likely share Newsom's lockdown philosophy.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Tortoise » Fri Mar 12, 2021 12:49 pm

Looks like Maryland's governor Larry Hogan announced a couple of days ago that he's lifting restrictions on restaurants, bars, gyms, and other businesses so that they can operate at full capacity.

My initial reaction was, "Whoah, a blue state is letting restaurants and bars reopen to full capacity before most red states do??"

Then I noticed the governor's political party: Republican. ::)
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Tortoise » Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:07 pm

Bumping this thread to review our predictions.

Looks like none of us got it right. The vast majority of us predicted CA would be last to fully reopen, but it reopened today (June 15), and five other states have yet to reopen.

According to this site, the five states that haven't yet fully reopened are:

- Washington (set to reopen on June 30, or sooner if 70% of eligible residents have received at least one vaccine dose)
- Michigan (set to reopen on July 1)
- New Mexico (set to reopen when 60% of eligible residents have been fully vaccinated)
- Oregon (set to reopen when 70% of eligible residents have received at least one vaccine dose)
- Hawaii (no criteria or date set)
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:36 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:07 pm
Bumping this thread to review our predictions.

Looks like none of us got it right. The vast majority of us predicted CA would be last to fully reopen, but it reopened today (June 15), and five other states have yet to reopen.

According to [the NYT], the five states that haven't yet fully reopened are:

- Washington (set to reopen on June 30, or sooner if 70% of eligible residents have received at least one vaccine dose)
- Michigan (set to reopen on July 1)
- New Mexico (set to reopen when 60% of eligible residents have been fully vaccinated)
- Oregon (set to reopen when 70% of eligible residents have received at least one vaccine dose)
- Hawaii (no criteria or date set)
If our criteria was no more mask mandates, then the NYT is fake news. So there is still hope, even for my pick! Since in New Jersey:
Face masks are still required for all individuals on public transportation, health care facilities, including nursing homes and office-based health care settings, child care centers, K-12 schools, homeless shelters, and correctional facilities, which remain subject to existing requirements and/or recommendations. link
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Tortoise » Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:17 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:36 pm
If our criteria was no more mask mandates, then the NYT is fake news. So there is still hope, even for my pick! Since in New Jersey:
Face masks are still required for all individuals on public transportation, health care facilities, including nursing homes and office-based health care settings, child care centers, K-12 schools, homeless shelters, and correctional facilities, which remain subject to existing requirements and/or recommendations. link
Same deal in CA:
https://covid19.ca.gov/masks-and-ppe/

I suspect that in some states like CA and NJ, some of those mask restrictions for hospitals, nursing homes, etc. may remain in place for years or indefinitely.

So for practical purposes -- to determine a "winner" in a more reasonable amount of time -- maybe we can relax the definition of "fully reopened" to mean the state no longer requires universal mask-wearing and limited capacity in restaurants, bars, gyms, and stores? All 50 states will probably reach that point sometime this year.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by WiseOne » Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:11 pm

I guess it depends on your definition of "fully reopened"?

To me, that means no more masks, and that's not going to happen here in New York for probably years. Basically, in order to go work in an office, go to school, go get a haircut, or go out to dinner, you have to have a mask on for the entire outing. It's not technically a "lockdown" I guess, but it sure feels like it. And most restaurants still aren't serving inside, or if they are it's extremely limited.

A lot of this is self imposed, and it's slowly easing up but it will take a long time before the voluntary maskers become truly a minority. I've been keeping count of people wearing masks outdoors (taking a sample of passersby as I walk down the street). Initially it was >90% masks. Now it's dropped to about 50%. I must say I was delighted when a few days ago the residents of my building stopped bothering with masks in the few minutes between front entrance and apartment door. Progress I guess, but very slow, baby steps.
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Re: Which US State Will Be Last to Fully Reopen?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:19 pm

By the way, I didn't notice it when I posted it, but are prisoners in correctional facilities in NJ REALLY required to wear masks 24/7 right now?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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