How bout we say the most logical and most likely, some of both. You know as well as I do, and probably better, that there is very little if anything in the biological world that is binary. I'll concede the latest apex, I will not concede the continued slope and neither can you assert the vaccine isn't a contributing factor. Also, it is not unreasonable to expect that as more people get vaccinated. If they get the shot they will not have as severe symptoms such that the likelihood of reported covid cases is going to continue to go down (so actually an undercount...but that's pure speculation on my part).WiseOne wrote: ↑Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:52 amDon't forget that the first group vaccinated was in general at very low risk for COVID: health care workers. It wasn't until mid to late January that they started in on the most vulnerable group, i.e. people living in long term care facilities. And, don't forget that the vaccines don't become effective right away.
So that drop came too early to be explained by vaccination. Rather, it looks suspiciously like the shape of the curves early in the pandemic, which were consistent across the globe and totally unrelated to lockdowns, mask wearing etc. It also looks a lot like the shape of the curve for flu cases that occurs each winter - for COVID it just came earlier than it does for the flu.
To me the saddest aspect of this whole thing is how it became politicized. While we like to talk about CA, NY, TX and FL, frankly the economic and covid stats say all they need to about the 4 states approaches. Meanwhile, there are a slew of red and blue states who applied science with good some common sense and have fared fairly well balancing public health and their state economies. Of course none of those states make the right or left news because they don't fit the political "outrage" narrative.