Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:28 am

WiseOne wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:52 am
Don't forget that the first group vaccinated was in general at very low risk for COVID: health care workers. It wasn't until mid to late January that they started in on the most vulnerable group, i.e. people living in long term care facilities. And, don't forget that the vaccines don't become effective right away.

So that drop came too early to be explained by vaccination. Rather, it looks suspiciously like the shape of the curves early in the pandemic, which were consistent across the globe and totally unrelated to lockdowns, mask wearing etc. It also looks a lot like the shape of the curve for flu cases that occurs each winter - for COVID it just came earlier than it does for the flu.
How bout we say the most logical and most likely, some of both. You know as well as I do, and probably better, that there is very little if anything in the biological world that is binary. I'll concede the latest apex, I will not concede the continued slope and neither can you assert the vaccine isn't a contributing factor. Also, it is not unreasonable to expect that as more people get vaccinated. If they get the shot they will not have as severe symptoms such that the likelihood of reported covid cases is going to continue to go down (so actually an undercount...but that's pure speculation on my part).

To me the saddest aspect of this whole thing is how it became politicized. While we like to talk about CA, NY, TX and FL, frankly the economic and covid stats say all they need to about the 4 states approaches. Meanwhile, there are a slew of red and blue states who applied science with good some common sense and have fared fairly well balancing public health and their state economies. Of course none of those states make the right or left news because they don't fit the political "outrage" narrative.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by WiseOne » Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:40 am

OK so how do you explain the low caseload last summer? Last I checked there was no vaccine available at that time.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by flyingpylon » Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:25 am

Probably easier to just accept that humans make decisions based on emotions and find "facts" to rationalize them later.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:02 am

WiseOne wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:40 am
OK so how do you explain the low caseload last summer? Last I checked there was no vaccine available at that time.
I don't disagree at that there is a significant seasonal aspect to things...I just think "both" are going on and will continue.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Mountaineer » Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:14 am

vnatale wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:17 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:11 pm
@Vinny The Salk polio vaccine was administered orally on a sugar cube. The vaccine that used 'the gun’ was for small pox.
I seem to remember being in a long line of people to get it. Isn't small pox vaccination given individually at a certain age?

My friend who is same age as me, lived less than a mile from me, and went to the same elementary school also remembered the cube. So we have different memories.

He sent me this which fits with his memory and what you are saying: "If you’re of a certain age, you may remember as a child being given a sugar cube in a small paper cup. But what you may thought was a treat was in fact your immunization against polio."

However it went on to say: "At first, the vaccine developed by Salk and Dr. Albert Sabin at the University of Pittsburgh was injected. Later, it was given by Sabin vaccine-that sugar cube dosed with serum and taken orally."

Earlier I posted that the oral was not developed until 1962 which was six years after I remember getting my "gun" shot in 1956.

Therefore my now fuzzy memory has not been completely cleared up.
My memory: Smallpox vaccine on left arm via liquid on to a bunch of "scratches" to get the vaccine in to my body; my almost faded away scar is about dime size. Salk dead vaccine adminsitered via injection into arm. Sabin live vaccine administered via sugar cube taken orally. I had all three.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Mountaineer » Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:20 am

Kbg wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:26 pm
barrett wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:11 am
Would love to know from what you are drawing your conclusion regarding the vaccines and declining numbers.
Thanks in advance.
Depending on the source the vaccines started being widely administered mid December.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive (or pick your favorite tracking site, they all note pretty much the same thing)

Could be coincidence I guess.

I have to agree with SomeDude COVID apparently doesn't exist in FL. I'm glad he hasn't lost anyone to it and it's a non-issue in his world. It took out my first cousin pretty quickly who had cancer. I suppose the 3-5 years he was supposed to live that turned into 21 days for his family is no big thing. Stuff happens right?

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/c ... d-by-state
My wife ran into a neighbor while on her morning walk this morning that she had not seen for a while. Her husband works at the local Honda dealership. She said 12 people at the dealership had Covid, 1 hospitaized, another 1 died. Her husband had double pneumonia but tested negative at the time; suspects he had Covid earlier last year.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:56 pm

In our small rural community, we've had several cases, blessedly no deaths. I'm guessing our "stats" are in line with national/state averages. For most, it was a really bad flu to asymptomatic. For two a couple of emergency room visits for fluids/dehydration and breathing problems. Another hospitalized for I think 3 weeks who now has permanent lung damage but has recovered (basically).

On a personal level my cousin got it from his wife who was a nurse who most likely got it at work. Another first cousin is still recovering and probably has some long term side effects. My mom who used to "snowbird" before my Dad passed away had two friends die from covid who sadly got it from grandchildren visits.

Personally, I've felt from the beginning there needed to be a balance with a focus specifically on those who are in fact at risk. I think about 3-4 months into it, it became fairly clear who was at risk and who was not seriously at risk. However, I've never really understood those who are completely callous about the whole thing and say it doesn't exist. If that's their real personality vs. their online persona, pretty sure we wouldn't be friends in real life.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:03 pm

Kbg wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:56 pm
However, I've never really understood those who are completely callous about the whole thing and say it doesn't exist. If that's their real personality vs. their online persona, pretty sure we wouldn't be friends in real life.
From my experience, I have generally stopped talking about Covid, masks, Trump and Biden since late Jan.

It would add strain to a number of friendships, I know, for sure. So I am just staying away.

It's kind of strange for sure. I "want" to talk about these things to see where people stand, but I also don't want to know because it will bias me, and likely them.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:42 pm

"Don't forget that the first group vaccinated was in general at very low risk for COVID: health care workers. It wasn't until mid to late January that they started in on the most vulnerable group, i.e. people living in long term care facilities. And, don't forget that the vaccines don't become effective right away.

So that drop came too early to be explained by vaccination. Rather, it looks suspiciously like the shape of the curves early in the pandemic, which were consistent across the globe and totally unrelated to lockdowns, mask wearing etc. It also looks a lot like the shape of the curve for flu cases that occurs each winter - for COVID it just came earlier than it does for the flu."

"How bout we say the most logical and most likely, some of both. "

Regarding the claim of what is most logical, I have no reason to think that is equally logical that declining Wuhan deaths and injury can be attributed to the most susceptible have already been injured and or killed. The remaining population is at a lower susceptibility, all the low hanging fruit is already been picked by the CCP virus.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:48 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:03 pm
Kbg wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:56 pm
However, I've never really understood those who are completely callous about the whole thing and say it doesn't exist. If that's their real personality vs. their online persona, pretty sure we wouldn't be friends in real life.
From my experience, I have generally stopped talking about Covid, masks, Trump and Biden since late Jan.

It would add strain to a number of friendships, I know, for sure. So I am just staying away.

It's kind of strange for sure. I "want" to talk about these things to see where people stand, but I also don't want to know because it will bias me, and likely them.
I blame, and I chose that word deliberately, the rise of outrage journalism and associated politicians who leverage the completely manufactured outrage of the day for political purpose which has the knock on effect of turning politics into the new religions of the day. And, this stuff is absolutely a "bipartisan effort."

But hey, it sells news to the market segment targeted by the news organization involved. I guess I shouldn't be too surprised by this since it's been going on since the birth of the U.S. Perhaps modern news distribution techniques are better at amplifying the emotional content/response of the reader/watcher/listener. IDK...kinda strange for sure as you said.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Mon Mar 08, 2021 2:23 pm

Kbg wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:48 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 1:03 pm
Kbg wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:56 pm
However, I've never really understood those who are completely callous about the whole thing and say it doesn't exist. If that's their real personality vs. their online persona, pretty sure we wouldn't be friends in real life.
From my experience, I have generally stopped talking about Covid, masks, Trump and Biden since late Jan.

It would add strain to a number of friendships, I know, for sure. So I am just staying away.

It's kind of strange for sure. I "want" to talk about these things to see where people stand, but I also don't want to know because it will bias me, and likely them.
I blame, and I chose that word deliberately, the rise of outrage journalism and associated politicians who leverage the completely manufactured outrage of the day for political purpose which has the knock on effect of turning politics into the new religions of the day. And, this stuff is absolutely a "bipartisan effort."

But hey, it sells news to the market segment targeted by the news organization involved. I guess I shouldn't be too surprised by this since it's been going on since the birth of the U.S. Perhaps modern news distribution techniques are better at amplifying the emotional content/response of the reader/watcher/listener. IDK...kinda strange for sure as you said.
Ross Douthat of the New York Times has argued that a renewed public religiosity would take the "religion" back out of politics and lower the temperature of public discourse.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:57 pm

Kbg wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:56 pm
However, I've never really understood those who are completely callous about the whole thing and say it doesn't exist. If that's their real personality vs. their online persona, pretty sure we wouldn't be friends in real life.
Is it your opinion that there are a significant number of people who are callous and say the CCP virus doesn't exist? Who are the leading spokesman for this view?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Mon Mar 08, 2021 6:51 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:57 pm
Kbg wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 12:56 pm
However, I've never really understood those who are completely callous about the whole thing and say it doesn't exist. If that's their real personality vs. their online persona, pretty sure we wouldn't be friends in real life.
Is it your opinion that there are a significant number of people who are callous and say the CCP virus doesn't exist? Who are the leading spokesman for this view?
Remember, saying you believe the numbers are totally overstated and false, even though this is very obviously true is callous.

The media and government, which lie about every subject known to man and have throughout all history must be trusted here completely. Casting doubt on their claims is beyond reckless.

I mean look, just today i guy from the internet who's real name I don't know told me his wife ran into someone in their neighborhood who's husband works with a guy who died from COVID "maybe". I say maybe because we don't know if the guy was morbidly obese, had cancer, respiratory problems etc.

And Mountaineer, i truly mean no offense (sincerely) and i am sure what you said was exactly as you heard it and as your wife heard it and as the man's wife heard it. I'm just saying i haven't heard of anyone directly getting sick other than from the TV or internet. So its the most bizarre pandemic imaginable. Maybe it is real and horrible. I'm not being callous when i tell you if i hadn't heard about it online or from known liars on the TV, i wouldn't even know it existed.

Even if it is real, 90% of the numbers could easily be fake. Since almost everyone believes the government or media, 95% of people might not know anyone who's gotten sick but will still believe there is a pandemic.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:25 pm

Callous
2a: feeling no emotion
b: feeling or showing no sympathy for others : HARD-HEARTED
a callous indifference to suffering

Is callous the correct adjective you were looking for? I ask in part because you are assigning ill intent to people who question a narrative.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:07 pm

I hope somebody who is a branch covidian will find this history lesson helpful....
https://www.barnhardt.biz/2021/03/08/co ... -to-satan/
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:22 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 6:51 pm

Even if it is real, 90% of the numbers could easily be fake. Since almost everyone believes the government or media, 95% of people might not know anyone who's gotten sick but will still believe there is a pandemic.
You all need to explain to me the reasoning behind faking all this. Was it to turn us into sheeple? If anything, the pandemic has made most people trust the government less, yours truly included. Get us all divided even more? Ok, sure that's happened, but was already happening with social media and the internet.

Was it to take our guns? Our money? Inject us with nano robots to control our minds? Can you still go shopping? Walk outside? Protest?

Really, just like all the supposed false flags, and other fake/conspiracy theories, what I've never hear is anyone able to clearly indicate to me is how any have made my life more controlled by the powers that be, or put us one step closer to a new world order, or whatever you believe. Inconvenienced, yes. Whatever other stuff you think will result from this, no.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:41 pm

I thought there was a topic "Will you take the vaccine?"...but on a quick search I could not find it.

Therefore this seems to be the most appropriate topic to put this one...

I think I became eligible in Massachusetts (over 65) last Monday. I've been trying in earnest to get an appointment since last Tuesday but no success. Though I'm still living an extremely isolated life that will not be the case once softball starts in about a month. Therefore, I want to be completely vaccinated by then.

For those of you who have had the shot(s)..how easy was it for you to get it? For those seeking to get it how difficult has it been for you?

I'm assuming that in my case it should get easier since supply will be going up while demand will be going down. My greatest hope is that somehow I can get the Johnson & Johnson one and done, which enhances the possibilities of me meeting my deadline.

On the other hand I was willing to play last August absent the vaccine but that did not happen due to not enough teams. This time around it's a big concern to me to have the vaccine. I don't think I can fully explain the inconsistency. Maybe it's been been a result of reading Mathjak's first hand dreadful experiences. That definitely raised my fear levels.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:37 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:25 pm
Callous
2a: feeling no emotion
b: feeling or showing no sympathy for others : HARD-HEARTED
a callous indifference to suffering

Is callous the correct adjective you were looking for? I ask in part because you are assigning ill intent to people who question a narrative.
2b seems pretty spot on for what I intended to write.

I could probably fill up 10 pages cross posting comments from this board that essentially boiled down to too fat, too old, too unhealthy, pre-existing conditions, wrong color/race too flippin bad this covid thing isn't real. You know that and I know that...you tell me, are those comments callous? If not, fine with me. I guess our callousness meters are calibrated differently. By faith I'm a Sermon on the Mount kinda guy and disappointed with myself when I fall short of His teachings.

Blessed are the poor in spirit,
for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
Blessed are those who mourn,
for they will be comforted.
Blessed are the meek,
for they will inherit the earth.
Blessed are those who hunger and thirst for righteousness,
for they will be filled.
Blessed are the merciful,
for they will be shown mercy.
Blessed are the pure in heart,
for they will see God.
Blessed are the peacemakers,
for they will be called sons of God.
Blessed are those who are persecuted because of righteousness,
for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
Blessed are you when people insult you, persecute you and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of me.
Rejoice and be glad, because great is your reward in heaven, for in the same way they persecuted the prophets who were before you.

I appreciate that your personal posts on this thread have by and large if not totally been links to sources. Personally, my take is that covid is not the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the world and that the vast preponderance of data does support it's a real thing. Pretty crazy all this https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55170756 is happening for something that doesn't exist. This hoax is EPIC man.

And seriously, if you literally don't know of a single person who hasn't had a serious bout or tragedy with covid then count yourself extremely blessed and if you believe in a God, I hope you are giving thanks to your conception of God.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:59 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:41 pm
For those of you who have had the shot(s)..how easy was it for you to get it? For those seeking to get it how difficult has it been for you?
It seems to me it really depends on the state you live in and how effective your state's roll out plan is. It also appears that pretty quickly with the ramp up of availability that it will leave what is essentially a government prioritization and rationing plan and be pretty much available wherever you would normally get vaccinations.

I live in a red state that still values good government performance more than ideological purity and it has been pretty smooth. There is a prioritization system and if you fit the current criterion you go online to get an appointment. I don't know of anyone who couldn't get one within two weeks. However, during the very first week several appointment servers crashed due to huge demand but since then it has been a non-event.

We are now down into the 50s age groups and any younger person above 16/18? with certain pre-existing health conditions.

IIRC it is expected that anyone who wants the vaccine can get it by mid-April and mid-April is when our state's mask mandate goes away for groups below 50 in size regardless of location. The current projection is that, knock on wood, normality will return sometime this summer.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Mountaineer » Tue Mar 09, 2021 5:55 am

Kbg wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:59 pm
vnatale wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:41 pm
For those of you who have had the shot(s)..how easy was it for you to get it? For those seeking to get it how difficult has it been for you?
It seems to me it really depends on the state you live in and how effective your state's roll out plan is. It also appears that pretty quickly with the ramp up of availability that it will leave what is essentially a government prioritization and rationing plan and be pretty much available wherever you would normally get vaccinations.
That is also my experience. I live in Delaware, a blue state, blue mainly because of one larger city that is 30 miles from Philadelphia. The rest of the state is relatively rural and tends to be redder. Pennsylvania, a next door blue state, is where a lot of people I know live.

Delaware got off to a rocky start with vaccine distribution organization but drastically improved in about one week - they learned from the errors. Almost all of my Delaware friends who meet the guidelines of age and/or physical condition have been vaccinated. My assessment after living here for a few decades is Delaware has a pretty good state government; my local state representative is an awesome communicator that tells his constituency everywhere the vaccine will be available. For what it's worth, I have sent him two emails in the past month; he responded to me within two hours both times and thoroughly answered my questions.

Pennsylvania, also a blue state, got off to a rocky start and never got any better. Most of my Pennsylvania friends have not been able to receive a vaccination (regardless of age or physical condition). Pennsylvania, dominated by Philadelphia, government is a disaster on many counts, not just vaccine related; Philadelphia politics of most sorts have been a mess for decades.
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Maddy » Tue Mar 09, 2021 6:28 am

"Callous." I guess the "racist" attribution is wearing thin.

Not so long ago, the very same name-callers were claiming it was callous to suggest that HIV-positive individuals should not be having sex. In fact, many suggested that the only effective way of destigmatizing the disease was to allow it to spread within the general population. That sentiment persists to this day, most recently visible in legislation that no longer makes it a crime to deliberately infect another person with the life-altering, often fatal, virus.

The only thing that surprises me about this kind of hyper-emotional, unprincipled thinking--which is a hallmark of the Left--is that it is now regularly appearing on this board.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:54 am

Kbg wrote:
Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:37 pm

I could probably fill up 10 pages cross posting comments from this board that essentially boiled down to too fat, too old, too unhealthy, pre-existing conditions, wrong color/race too flippin bad this covid thing isn't real. You know that and I know that...you tell me, are those comments callous? If not, fine with me. I guess our callousness meters are calibrated differently. By faith I'm a Sermon on the Mount kinda guy and disappointed with myself when I fall short of His teachings.
+100 It seems to be a given on forums, Facebook, Twitter, etc, that people will talk like they (hopefully) would never talk to someone face to face. I don't know why, and this is another reason I post with my real name.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:57 am

Kbg wrote: "Personally, my take is that covid is not the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the world and that the vast preponderance of data does support it's a real thing."

What is a hoax is the response and induced panic to the Chinese Communist virus. That is specifically what barnhardt writes about in her blog. It seems like you were unable to make that distinction. In the same way that you seem unable to make the distinction among those who question the panic narrative.

I personally have not seen the callous attitude you refer to among other people in regards to the Wuhan virus. However, I will trust that you are not bearing false witness, as you have already indicated you live by the beatitudes.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Maddy » Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:10 am

So Ann Barnhardt is still alive and kicking, huh? I wondered what had happened to her after she ceremoniously sold her belongings off piece by piece, began living out of a trailer and went from being a high-flying commodities broker to working under the table as a janitor. All to send the message to the IRS that they couldn't own her soul. Gotta respect the woman for that; she does have a pair. I sort of lost interest when she went hog-wild Catholic and started talking in Latin. Although her excoriating rants about kid-diddlers in the church was kind of amusing.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Tue Mar 09, 2021 9:34 am

murphy_p_t wrote:
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:57 am
Kbg wrote: "Personally, my take is that covid is not the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the world and that the vast preponderance of data does support it's a real thing."

What is a hoax is the response and induced panic to the Chinese Communist virus. That is specifically what barnhardt writes about in her blog. It seems like you were unable to make that distinction. In the same way that you seem unable to make the distinction among those who question the panic narrative.

I personally have not seen the callous attitude you refer to among other people in regards to the Wuhan virus. However, I will trust that you are not bearing false witness, as you have already indicated you live by the beatitudes.
Really, so what happened in NYC and Italy during the months of March and April was all make believe? What happened to Trump, make believe? Almost 100% bipartisan support in Congress for waiving liability and billions of dollars of subsidies for pharmaceuticals to produce vaccines all for a make believe thing? Countries deliberately damaging their economies, sometimes significantly for something make believe?

Speaking of Wuhan, a totalitarian shut down of what over 8 weeks for a city of 11+ million for something all made up?

Reasonable people can differ about what the correct response should have been and should be now. In the early days nobody really knew what we were dealing with and so I think both a prudent and correct response was to act with caution and after watching NYC and Italy get hammered the west reacted aggressively. For something not real, there was one heck of a wide spread reaction.

I think after "X number of months" when we understood the severity of the virus to different categories of individuals there probably could have been (and in many places there were) smarter, more tailored approaches. However, at that point in the US the whole thing had become politicized so kiss that good bye. All is not so dark though...I'd say the large majority of the states did their best to balance public health and the economy. Anyway, those stories don't feed the daily media outrage of the day machine so they don't get reported...Imagine the Headline: State Governor Y tries/his her best to figure out how to proceed in keeping the public safe while maintaining their economy and decides X which tries to balance the two." Now THAT would be outrageously awesome to read...not gonna happen though.

I think the only hoax is blog writers who are flat out lying and have an inability to remember back 12-14 months with any reliability.
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