Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

[KayFaybe]

KayFaybe,

You poor, poor newbie. Expecting a fact based rebuttal, how quaint. How dare you bring mathematics to this thread? The insouciance!

As a more experienced board veteran I need to correct one error. This is not the best forum on the internet. It is the best forum on the internet filled with "independent thinkers."

One more mistake like that could lead to your permanent banishment from the board.

Moving on...What do you find interesting about the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon as it relates to the topic at hand?

I find that adding a little Bacon to insouciance (that's like hollandaise, isn't it?) will tend to bring out its flavor.

[SomeDude]

Kayfaybe i thought you were trolling everyone. I thought you were another regular poster who took on a different handle to troll the board.

I'm not sure how to help you or what you're looking for though. You seem to have (deliberately?) missed the point of the discussion and i was giving you the benefit of the doubt that you were just trolling us.

29% of people knowing a close family member or friend is not the same as just knowing someone. 29% is also not in the same ballpark as 16.5%, unless the ballpark is littered with flunked math tests, full stop.

Mentioning Drumpf and Drumpf supporters was a nice touch though, since that also had nothing to do with the discussion.

I congratulate you on the ability to raise .9982 to the 290th power. TF mentioned monte carlo because you took an overly complicated path to examine the stat in question. I'll help simplify for everyone else and just talk in approximate numbers since no one knows exactly how many people are in the US pop.

US pop = approx 330M
29% of US pop = approx 95M
Alleged covid deaths = approx 600k (includes car accident victims, people falling off ladders, term ill from cancer and heart disease and basically anyone who died who tested positive for at least the first couple months of the ordeal).

95M divided by 600k = approx 160 people that on average each covid victim would need as a close friend or relative. Keep in mind the average age of the covid deaths (i think it's 77) and that this implies the 95M all know just 1 person who died of covid, and that the number really is 600k.

As for 16.5% "knowing someone"? Well, i don't know what that means "knowing someone". I have known thousands of people in my life. Does someone i knew count as someone i know? I guess I'm lucky. I only know one person who was hospitalized allegedly for covid. She's an obese senior citizen and she's fine now and back on the job.

[SomeDude]

So what's going on, then? Is everyone, including a large proportion of Trump voters, inflating their "know people who died of Covid" status, and if so, why?

Xan are you implying that Trump voters are less likely to be lying? Ohhh my

Seriously, do you have a theory why so many people would claim in this survey they know a family member or close friend that died from covid?

Keep in mind that i think only 2% of alleged covid deaths are people under 50. So this would discount the Facebook generation who think they have 1,000 close friends because they have 1,000 Facebook friends.

I think TF had some good theories about the number.

[KayFaybe]

Xan,

Would you please retitle this thread to: Reasons why this thread proves Zombies are real

I second the motion. A great idea from a new poster.

I did not write this. Could you please provide a correct attribution?

Thanks!

[vnatale]

I would think that at least one poster on the self-described "best forum on the internet" could tell me where I went wrong.

Gyroscopic Investing isn't necessarily going to outperform other forums on any given year, or over short periods of time, but our forum has less volatility over the long run while achieving similar returns to more volatile forums.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[vnatale]

KayFaybe,

You poor, poor newbie. Expecting a fact based rebuttal, how quaint. How dare you bring mathematics to this thread? The insouciance!

As a more experienced board veteran I need to correct one error. This is not the best forum on the internet. It is the best forum on the internet filled with "independent thinkers."

One more mistake like that could lead to your permanent banishment from the board.

Moving on...What do you find interesting about the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon as it relates to the topic at hand?

Until now I was convinced that "KayFaybe" was someone else already here under a different name. Completely possible, I assume?

I was also convinced that it was "Tomfoolery" adopting another personna.

Then just awhile ago I though it was YOU! Reducing the "KayFaybe" to KFB was close to Kbg.

But now I do not think it is you. However, I'm still thinking it is someone posting under a different name or someone who used to be here under a different name and coming back as "KayFaybe".

Only "KayFaybe" knows for certain!

[vnatale]

Kayfaybe i thought you were trolling everyone. I thought you were another regular poster who took on a different handle to troll the board.

So NOT just me had this assumption!

[KayFaybe]

KayFaybe, your math is solid. There isn't a "Bayesian" or "Monte Carlo" improvement to be made. I would say it's likely to be the upper bound of the actual number, because Covid deaths aren't distributed evenly through the population, which is an underlying assumption of your analysis.

Thank you, Xan.

Yes, I recognize that was an assumption of my analysis.

I also disagree with those (I think Some Dude and janalong) who wrote that 16% is not in the same ballpark as 29%. I think if you consider that I used very minimal information to come up with my number, 16% is actually quite accurate.

I don't think the others are (for the most part) challenging the math so much as other things about the number. jalanlong is saying that the question itself was designed to come up with a high number, just to generate a high number and cause fear. That may be so. The definition of "family or close friend" is definitely hard to pin down; the number only appears to be reasonable if just about EVERYBODY that a person knows is counted as family or close friend.

It does seem that it might be difficult to pin down without knowing exactly how the question was worded. The link you provided indicated that it was on-line survey, so it would probably difficult to coach the person on exactly how to restrict "people I know".

So what's going on, then? Is everyone, including a large proportion of Trump voters, inflating their "know people who died of Covid" status, and if so, why?

This is a great question. It was 26% of Trump voters vs. 29% overall. These are statistically identical.

US pop = approx 330M
29% of US pop = approx 95M
Alleged covid deaths = approx 600k (includes car accident victims, people falling off ladders, term ill from cancer and heart disease and basically anyone who died who tested positive for at least the first couple months of the ordeal).

95M divided by 600k = approx 160 people that on average each covid victim would need as a close friend or relative.

Yours is a fine estimate, though it assumes a person can only know 1 person who died from COVID, so your estimate is low. I would estimate that the number of "close friends / relatives" needed is:

N = ln(1 - 0.29)/ln(1 - death rate) = ln(0.71)/ln(0.9982)
N = 190

Your extremely quick method is reasonably close because the death rate is so small.

[vnatale]

Judge rules Florida can't ban Norwegian Cruise Line 'vaccine passport'


https://thehill.com/policy/transportati ... e-passport

[KayFaybe]

The definition of "family or close friend" is definitely hard to pin down; the number only appears to be reasonable if just about EVERYBODY that a person knows is counted as family or close friend.

It also seems reasonable to me that the circle of family could be quite large. Before I cut off contact with my family, I remember my mom telling me that my great uncle (my dad's uncle) died from COVID complications. So I started to think... my mom, for example, tends to keep up on family news. Her mom (my maternal grandmother) had 8 siblings. And my dad's mom (my fraternal grandmother) also had 8 siblings. They all had a decent number of kids, so counting spouses and cousins and cousins kids, not to mention their own siblings and their siblings kids, this seems like it could easily be 100+ people.

So, if I had taken the survey, I would have said "yes, a family member has died from COVID", even though I only learned of my great uncle's death through my mom.

(As I wrote, I have now cut off all contact with my parents because they were Biden voters... this is sad because my dad is 90 and probably doesn't have much time left, but I'm sure you all agree that sentimentality has no place with a group of people hell-bent on destroying my way of life.)

[Kbg]

Xan,

Would you please retitle this thread to: Reasons why this thread proves Zombies are real

I second the motion. A great idea from a new poster.

I did not write this. Could you please provide a correct attribution?

Thanks!

Mine.

[SomeDude]

KayFaybe, your math is solid. There isn't a "Bayesian" or "Monte Carlo" improvement to be made. I would say it's likely to be the upper bound of the actual number, because Covid deaths aren't distributed evenly through the population, which is an underlying assumption of your analysis.

Thank you, Xan.

Yes, I recognize that was an assumption of my analysis.

I also disagree with those (I think Some Dude and janalong) who wrote that 16% is not in the same ballpark as 29%. I think if you consider that I used very minimal information to come up with my number, 16% is actually quite accurate.

I don't think the others are (for the most part) challenging the math so much as other things about the number. jalanlong is saying that the question itself was designed to come up with a high number, just to generate a high number and cause fear. That may be so. The definition of "family or close friend" is definitely hard to pin down; the number only appears to be reasonable if just about EVERYBODY that a person knows is counted as family or close friend.

It does seem that it might be difficult to pin down without knowing exactly how the question was worded. The link you provided indicated that it was on-line survey, so it would probably difficult to coach the person on exactly how to restrict "people I know".

So what's going on, then? Is everyone, including a large proportion of Trump voters, inflating their "know people who died of Covid" status, and if so, why?

This is a great question. It was 26% of Trump voters vs. 29% overall. These are statistically identical.

US pop = approx 330M
29% of US pop = approx 95M
Alleged covid deaths = approx 600k (includes car accident victims, people falling off ladders, term ill from cancer and heart disease and basically anyone who died who tested positive for at least the first couple months of the ordeal).

95M divided by 600k = approx 160 people that on average each covid victim would need as a close friend or relative.

Yours is a fine estimate, though it assumes a person can only know 1 person who died from COVID, so your estimate is low. I would estimate that the number of "close friends / relatives" needed is:

N = ln(1 - 0.29)/ln(1 - death rate) = ln(0.71)/ln(0.9982)
N = 190

Your extremely quick method is reasonably close because the death rate is so small.

Yes i was being as conservative as possible to give the poll the best chance of plausibility, 600k true dead and nobody has more than 1 close friend or family member that's died.

[KayFaybe]

US pop = approx 330M
29% of US pop = approx 95M
Alleged covid deaths = approx 600k (includes car accident victims, people falling off ladders, term ill from cancer and heart disease and basically anyone who died who tested positive for at least the first couple months of the ordeal).

95M divided by 600k = approx 160 people that on average each covid victim would need as a close friend or relative.

Yours is a fine estimate, though it assumes a person can only know 1 person who died from COVID, so your estimate is low. I would estimate that the number of "close friends / relatives" needed is:

N = ln(1 - 0.29)/ln(1 - death rate) = ln(0.71)/ln(0.9982)
N = 190

Your extremely quick method is reasonably close because the death rate is so small.

Yes i was being as conservative as possible to give the poll the best chance of plausibility, 600k true dead and nobody has more than 1 close friend or family member that's died.

I applaud your admitting your 160 estimate was wrong. Bravo!

[KayFaybe]

I was also convinced that it was "Tomfoolery" adopting another personna.

Could be!

[SomeDude]

US pop = approx 330M
29% of US pop = approx 95M
Alleged covid deaths = approx 600k (includes car accident victims, people falling off ladders, term ill from cancer and heart disease and basically anyone who died who tested positive for at least the first couple months of the ordeal).

95M divided by 600k = approx 160 people that on average each covid victim would need as a close friend or relative.

Yours is a fine estimate, though it assumes a person can only know 1 person who died from COVID, so your estimate is low. I would estimate that the number of "close friends / relatives" needed is:

N = ln(1 - 0.29)/ln(1 - death rate) = ln(0.71)/ln(0.9982)
N = 190

Your extremely quick method is reasonably close because the death rate is so small.

Yes i was being as conservative as possible to give the poll the best chance of plausibility, 600k true dead and nobody has more than 1 close friend or family member that's died.

I applaud your admitting your 160 estimate was wrong. Bravo!

you are definitely trolling now. Bravo! You can be safely ignored with no risk of missing something of value.

[vnatale]

From yesterday's baseball newsletter...

Vinny

Viva Jason Isbell
Jason Isbell announced yesterday that he and his band The 400 Unit are now requiring proof of vaccination or a current negative test to attend all of their shows, indoors or out. Isbell says that if the venue won’t allow that, they won’t play.

As a big Jason Isbell fan and a big vaccine fan, I fully support this. As the holder of a ticket to see Isbell at the Ryman Auditorium in Nashville in October, I hope the Ryman goes along with it. If they don’t, and if the shows don’t go on, I won’t be blaming Isbell for it, that’s for sure.

In other vaccine news . . .
There are more than 600 colleges and universities requiring proof of vaccination before students can start classes this fall. In response, a black market of fake vaccine cards has sprung up, with some selling for as much as $400 a piece.

Imagine being so propaganda-poisoned that you think it’s better to spend $400 to get a fake vaccine card as opposed to getting a free vaccination.

[murphy_p_t]

Imagine being so propaganda-poisoned that you think the experimental gene therapy stops the spread of Wuhan.

[Xan]

Imagine being so propaganda-poisoned that you think the experimental gene therapy stops the spread of Wuhan.

What about the other vaccines which aren't "experimental gene therapy"?

[SomeDude]

Imagine being so propaganda-poisoned that you think the experimental gene therapy stops the spread of Wuhan.

I thought the CDC came out last week and admitted that the experiment doesn't prevent you from getting or spreading? Isn't that why folks who are vaccinated all need to mask up again and stay home?

[Kriegsspiel]

I thought the CDC came out last week and admitted that the experiment doesn't prevent you from getting or spreading? Isn't that why folks who are vaccinated all need to mask up again and stay home?

I don't remember if it was the CDC who said it (without saying it), but it's been known for a while now that the vaccines create "asymptomatic spreaders."

[Xan]

Imagine being so propaganda-poisoned that you think the experimental gene therapy stops the spread of Wuhan.

I thought the CDC came out last week and admitted that the experiment doesn't prevent you from getting or spreading? Isn't that why folks who are vaccinated all need to mask up again and stay home?

The vaccine helps very much with getting and spreading, but not as much as had been hoped. And with the amount of germ floating around because of all the fine people who just don't bother with vaccines or masking or distancing or anything, the recommendation was that in areas of high spread, vaccinated people go back to masking.

[Xan]

Actually with the communicability of the Indian variant it looks like herd immunity won't ever be possible. We get to choose whether we face this thing with the help of the vaccine or without it.

[flyingpylon]

Imagine being so propaganda-poisoned that you think the experimental gene therapy stops the spread of Wuhan.

I thought the CDC came out last week and admitted that the experiment doesn't prevent you from getting or spreading? Isn't that why folks who are vaccinated all need to mask up again and stay home?

The vaccine helps very much with getting and spreading, but not as much as had been hoped. And with the amount of germ floating around because of all the fine people who just don't bother with vaccines or masking or distancing or anything, the recommendation was that in areas of high spread, vaccinated people go back to masking.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky says that the vaccines no longer prevent transmission.

https://twitter.com/CNNSitRoom/status/1 ... 48929?s=20

Go to about 1:54.

[SomeDude]

Imagine being so propaganda-poisoned that you think the experimental gene therapy stops the spread of Wuhan.

I thought the CDC came out last week and admitted that the experiment doesn't prevent you from getting or spreading? Isn't that why folks who are vaccinated all need to mask up again and stay home?

The vaccine helps very much with getting and spreading, but not as much as had been hoped. And with the amount of germ floating around because of all the fine people who just don't bother with vaccines or masking or distancing or anything, the recommendation was that in areas of high spread, vaccinated people go back to masking.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky says that the vaccines no longer prevent transmission.

https://twitter.com/CNNSitRoom/status/1 ... 48929?s=20

Go to about 1:54.

Sounds like that takes away the last argument for getting it unless you are in a risk group.

They will struggle to convince anyone to volunteer at this point.

[Xan]

Imagine being so propaganda-poisoned that you think the experimental gene therapy stops the spread of Wuhan.

I thought the CDC came out last week and admitted that the experiment doesn't prevent you from getting or spreading? Isn't that why folks who are vaccinated all need to mask up again and stay home?

The vaccine helps very much with getting and spreading, but not as much as had been hoped. And with the amount of germ floating around because of all the fine people who just don't bother with vaccines or masking or distancing or anything, the recommendation was that in areas of high spread, vaccinated people go back to masking.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky says that the vaccines no longer prevent transmission.

https://twitter.com/CNNSitRoom/status/1 ... 48929?s=20

Go to about 1:54.

She said that IF there's a breakthrough infection, it can be spread. Of course that was always true. It's not really clear to me what changed.