Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

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SomeDude
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Sun May 30, 2021 8:16 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 2:22 pm
Except the non-vaccinated population does NOT have a 98% non-illness rate. And if it did, your #2 above makes no sense, which is in direct contradiction of your #3 above.
Ahhhh i think i understand the confusion with my points, let me clear it up.

Assumption - without a vaccine a random person has a 98% likelihood of not getting sick from Covid.

Assumption - with a vaccine they now have a 99% chance of staying healthy.

The chances of getting sick have been cut in half (50% drop), from 2% to 1%. A person has reduced their covid illness risk by 50%.

They have only increased their chance of staying healthy by 1% though, from 98 to 99.

And of course the vaccine promoters can say without lying that if you take the shot you're 99% protected.

This just shows how the exact same data can make very different arguments sound compelling. And the individual can be mislead by statements that are not meaningful to their situation.

It made 100x more sense for my wife's dad to accept the risk of the vaccine because of his age and health (82, overweight, one lung). It makes zero sense for us. Point 2 is relevant for him. Point 3 for us.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Mon May 31, 2021 7:37 am

PG i was talking about illness rate not infection. The infection rate doesn't matter since allegedly you still get infected regardless of the vaccine.

Allegedly 34M positive cases buy surely many are duplicates of the same person.

Regardless, only serious illness rate matters since you also have a good chance of at least mild sickness from the vaccine. A person getting the vaccine is hundreds of percent more likely to get at least mildly sick than a non vaccinated person.

My understanding is the vaccine is only for preventing serious illness risk from COVID, not infection or mild symptoms (since the vaccine has a solid chance of causing those). In fact, the only people I've known who were sick got it from the vaccine.

I think 98% or 99% is more correct than anything lower. I doubt 1/50 or even 1/100 people have really gotten meaningfully sick in the way the vaccine is supposed to prevent. It makes the risk to reward ratio for most of the population very high for taking the shots.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by WiseOne » Mon May 31, 2021 1:04 pm

In principle somedude is correct: the COVID case numbers are meaningless because we don't know what percentage of them were associated with a clinical illness that was definitively due to COVID (and not to another random flu or cold bug).

The problem is defining "meaningful illness." For sure hospitalization would count as that - but remember that this number includes patients admitted to the hospital for reasons other than COVID, then tested positive while there. On the other hand, everyone who told me about what it was like to be home sick with COVID described it as the worst flu they ever had. Plus there's the loss of smell for several months afterward, and shortness of breath and fatigue and all that - I'm skeptical of "long COVID" but I can buy that manh people time to recover from a nasty respiratory illness.

Maybe a definition such as "unable to work for at least one full day" would be useful. Too bad there's never been any such statistic, but it would be worth finding out about. The vaccine side effects probably wouldn't rise to that level for most people. Quick poll of forum members??

Me: vaccine - I was tired and couch potato ish for a couple days which is why I arranged to get the shot on Friday morning. But I could have dragged myself to work if needed. COVID - never had a symptomatic case or positive test despite multiple exposures, and despite getting two colds since last spring. They lasted less than a day thanks to the vitamin D trick, but they were definitely colds not COVID.

Anyone else??
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Mon May 31, 2021 1:11 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 1:04 pm
Maybe a definition such as "unable to work for at least one full day" would be useful. Too bad there's never been any such statistic, but it would be worth finding out about. The vaccine side effects probably wouldn't rise to that level for most people. Quick poll of forum members??

Me: vaccine - I was tired and couch potato ish for a couple days which is why I arranged to get the shot on Friday morning. But I could have dragged myself to work if needed. COVID - never had a symptomatic case or positive test despite multiple exposures, and despite getting two colds since last spring. They lasted less than a day thanks to the vitamin D trick, but they were definitely colds not COVID.

Anyone else??
I was unusually tired for a day or two after shot #2. Didn't keep me from working. And then I stopped having to deal with masking, distancing, and a whole lot of rigamarole. Well worth it!
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by WiseOne » Mon May 31, 2021 1:19 pm

Xan wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 1:11 pm
And then I stopped having to deal with masking, distancing, and a whole lot of rigamarole. Well worth it!
I'm pretty sure you don't live where I live then. Here, indoor mask/distancing mandates are still in full force, and about 90% of people still wear a mask even outdoors.

I can be one of the 10% who choose not to wear a mask outdoors, but that's about the extent of it.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Mon May 31, 2021 1:38 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 1:04 pm

In principle somedude is correct: the COVID case numbers are meaningless because we don't know what percentage of them were associated with a clinical illness that was definitively due to COVID (and not to another random flu or cold bug).

The problem is defining "meaningful illness." For sure hospitalization would count as that - but remember that this number includes patients admitted to the hospital for reasons other than COVID, then tested positive while there. On the other hand, everyone who told me about what it was like to be home sick with COVID described it as the worst flu they ever had. Plus there's the loss of smell for several months afterward, and shortness of breath and fatigue and all that - I'm skeptical of "long COVID" but I can buy that manh people time to recover from a nasty respiratory illness.

Maybe a definition such as "unable to work for at least one full day" would be useful. Too bad there's never been any such statistic, but it would be worth finding out about. The vaccine side effects probably wouldn't rise to that level for most people. Quick poll of forum members??

Me: vaccine - I was tired and couch potato ish for a couple days which is why I arranged to get the shot on Friday morning. But I could have dragged myself to work if needed. COVID - never had a symptomatic case or positive test despite multiple exposures, and despite getting two colds since last spring. They lasted less than a day thanks to the vitamin D trick, but they were definitely colds not COVID.

Anyone else??


No effects on me from either of the vaccine shots.

Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Mon May 31, 2021 2:32 pm

WiseOne wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 1:04 pm
Maybe a definition such as "unable to work for at least one full day" would be useful. Too bad there's never been any such statistic, but it would be worth finding out about. The vaccine side effects probably wouldn't rise to that level for most people. Quick poll of forum members??
If any good assessment of the value prop of the vaccine is to be made, it really must be made against whatever the vaccine is supposed to protect against. That has to be more than 1 day of missed work. No one in their right mind should be taking an experimental injection to avoid being home sick for one day.

I work at a company with tens of thousands of employee and i have a massive global work network. I've heard of one guy who missed work because he was sick and he lives in AZ. This was March 2020 and i don't know if it was COVID confirmed.

On the other hand, i know about 2 dozen people in the last two months, both coworkers and customers who've been out sick 1-2 days due to the vaccine. So the vaccine probably massively increases your chances of getting mildly sick.

Prevention of serious illness and death should be the measuring stick of success for the vaccine i think. It makes the argument for most of the population getting it pretty weak.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon May 31, 2021 4:38 pm

If there were a meaningful statistic which was favorable for the vaccinators, you can be certain it would be blaring from every screen across the land.

Instead, the vaccine salesmen resort to a guilt shaming advertising strategy, complete with measures of compulsion.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Mon May 31, 2021 4:51 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 4:38 pm
If there were a meaningful statistic which was favorable for the vaccinators, you can be certain it would be blaring from every screen across the land.

Instead, the vaccine salesmen resort to a guilt shaming advertising strategy, complete with measures of compulsion.
Don't forget the vaccine lotto and Hollywood actors.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Mon May 31, 2021 5:33 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 4:38 pm
If there were a meaningful statistic which was favorable for the vaccinators, you can be certain it would be blaring from every screen across the land.

Instead, the vaccine salesmen resort to a guilt shaming advertising strategy, complete with measures of compulsion.
You mean like 95% effective overall, 100% effective against severe illness and death, and when you've had it you don't need to mask or distance anymore?

Should we expect much of a forum to be left in a year, or when will the genocide begin?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon May 31, 2021 5:45 pm

You must have skipped over Some Dude's comments over the last page or so.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Mon May 31, 2021 5:54 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 5:45 pm
You must have skipped over Some Dude's comments over the last page or so.
Didn't see anything worthwhile there, no.

Besides, your point was that we weren't seeing any good statistics about the vaccine because they didn't exist, which is clearly false.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Mon May 31, 2021 8:34 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 5:45 pm
You must have skipped over Some Dude's comments over the last page or so.
Murphy are you interested in my lighting bolt vaccine? 99.99% guarantee if you let me inject you you'll never get hit by lightning. And i won't even ask you to get a second or third shot either. And i promise the lightening won't mutate.

There are no long term studies on the side effects but look.....99.99% effective against getting hit by lightning.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Mon May 31, 2021 8:40 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 8:34 pm
murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 5:45 pm
You must have skipped over Some Dude's comments over the last page or so.
Murphy are you interested in my lighting bolt vaccine? 99.99% guarantee if you let me inject you you'll never get hit by lightning. And i won't even ask you to get a second or third shot either. And i promise the lightening won't mutate.

There are no long term studies on the side effects but look.....99.99% effective against getting hit by lightning.
You could argue that getting severe disease from Covid is like getting hit by lightning, if you're young and have no comorbidities. (Of course, you might have unknown ones...) But you can't argue that getting Covid is like getting struck by lightning: basically, everybody will either get the vaccine or will get Covid. If I were guaranteed that I'd be struck by lightning at some point in my life, then yes, give me that 99.99% vaccine!

I know you live in a world where miraculously nobody gets sick (for some goalpost-moving definition of "sick"), but that isn't everyone's experience.

Masking and distancing are tools to help us get through, and they're pretty awful. The vaccine is the solution.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Mon May 31, 2021 8:48 pm

For the record.......

Even if someone's ONLY reason for getting the injections is because they can't live a decent life otherwise.....it's probably worth the risks.

I think the known risks of the vaccine are relatively minor and the death count from it is probably very small. I don't know anyone who's died from it myself.

The unknown risks concern me more and i have no fear of Covid. I was already unmasked and didn't care about staying 6 feet away from people. But if someone was doing that and getting the injection eases their mind enough to live "normal"......that alone looks like a good risk reward to me.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon May 31, 2021 8:49 pm

"Masking and distancing are tools to help us get through, and they're pretty awful. The vaccine is the solution."

The endless Doom porn and propaganda has obviously been very effective with some people.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Mon May 31, 2021 8:54 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 8:48 pm
For the record.......

Even if someone's ONLY reason for getting the injections is because they can't live a decent life otherwise.....it's probably worth the risks.

I think the known risks of the vaccine are relatively minor and the death count from it is probably very small. I don't know anyone who's died from it myself.

The unknown risks concern me more and i have no fear of Covid. I was already unmasked and didn't care about staying 6 feet away from people. But if someone was doing that and getting the injection eases their mind enough to live "normal"......that alone looks like a good risk reward to me.
SomeDude, apart from doing everything you can to spread the disease, this is a very level-headed take.

It's pretty clear for me anyway that the unknown long-term risks of Covid are vastly more intimidating than the unknown long-term risks of the vaccine. But it sounds like, other than reaching different answers, you and I are at least approaching it from largely the same direction.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Mon May 31, 2021 8:54 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 8:49 pm
"Masking and distancing are tools to help us get through, and they're pretty awful. The vaccine is the solution."

The endless Doom porn and propaganda has obviously been very effective with some people.
You post links saying that the vaccine is committing genocide against the human race and will kill billions of people, and accuse other people of consuming Doom Porn?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by flyingpylon » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:16 am

Xan wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 8:40 pm
basically, everybody will either get the vaccine or will get Covid.
What makes you assume that is true?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Mountaineer » Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:01 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:16 am
Xan wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 8:40 pm
basically, everybody will either get the vaccine or will get Covid.
What makes you assume that is true?
I took it to mean the vaccine is of two forms, an external injection or internal preexisting immunity. 8)
DNA has its own language (code), and language requires intelligence. There is no known mechanism by which matter can give birth to information, let alone language. It is unreasonable to believe the world could have happened by chance.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:28 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:55 am
Xan wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 8:54 pm

It's pretty clear for me anyway that the unknown long-term risks of Covid are vastly more intimidating than the unknown long-term risks of the vaccine.
Totally agree.

We have no idea what the long-term risks of COVID are. It's only been around for 18 months. No one has any idea what the long-term effects of a coronavirus are on humans.

On the other hand, mRNA-based vaccines have been used for hundreds of years since Edward Jenner cured Smallpox, and we know they are safe, proven, and effective, with no long-term side effects.

And quite frankly, retroviruses have been around for millions of years, and if reverse transcriptase was a problem for humans, we'd all have been dead long before now.

Trust our democratically-elected scientists.
There are plenty of vaccines that aren't mRNA-based.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by WiseOne » Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:00 am

Xan wrote:
Mon May 31, 2021 8:54 pm
It's pretty clear for me anyway that the unknown long-term risks of Covid are vastly more intimidating than the unknown long-term risks of the vaccine.
Could you elaborate on the data that might support this statement?

No known coronavirus has any long term effects. Viral indirect sequelae are known, but they are rare: ADEM (acute demyelinating encephalomyelitis) and Guillian-Barre syndrome are the major ones, and neither has been reported associated with COVID. There are also viruses with acute effects (polio, hepatitis B) and that can hide and re-emerge years later (shingles), but none of those mechanisms have been described with COVID, apart from the loss of sense of smell which appears to be self limited (recovers after a period of months). I will grant that there are still some unknowns here, but the more time goes by, the less likely it is that one of these known viral long term effect mechanisms apply.

As far as mRNA vaccines go, you can't make any assumptions on long term effects because they have never before been tried in humans and only 2 months of clinical trial quality testing was done. In a year or two we'll know more, hopefully, although the level of knowledge will never rise to the level of a clinical trial lasting 2 years, which is the standard. We'll have to rely on things like noticing unusual trends for certain conditions emerging.

Also, let me speak to the idea that you will 100% get COVID if you're not vaccinated. That's not quite true. I think yes we will all be exposed to COVID eventually, masks or no masks, distancing or not distancing, vaccine or no vaccine. This where playing fast and loose with the definition of "COVID case" hurts us, because what we really need to know is the natural history of COVID infection in a healthy person without the major risk factors for severe disease. For starters, a good proportion - maybe half or more - of infections don't result in any clinical symptoms at all.

That in other words is the infection-fatality rate. The estimates for that are all over the place. Best I've seen is 0.4% for the entire US population - including high risk groups. The vaccine decision should depend on your personal estimated risk, which could be a tenth of that or less. At some point, after the effects of mRNA vaccines (and the COVID vaccines in particular) are better understood, even someone at very low risk would be well advised to take it. But the data simply don't exist now to make that decision. There's no right or wrong answer, but there are certainly wrong assumptions being made that make it difficult for a person to make a truly informed decision.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:19 pm

How many of the anti-vaxxers were taking ivermectin as a prophylactic?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:51 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:44 pm
Another anecdote to share. A colleague works at a dental office with 4 DDS and 10 ancillary staff (chairside, hygiene, front desk). 6 of the staff are hard-core covid anti-vax. The rest of the office has been vaccinated. Masks are worn, but people are lax about it away from direct patient treatment.

So one unvaccinated staff member came in to work not sick, but feeling less than perfect one day. She was covid presymptomatic and exposed the entire staff. Anyone want to guess what happened?

Literally 100% of the vaccinated group was fine. No symptoms whatsoever.
And 100% of the anti-vax crowd not only got it, but several so severely they ended up almost being hospitalized.
Please feel free to draw your own conclusions. This colleague is someone I know well and he practices in the next suburb over from here.
No issues here.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:21 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:44 pm

Another anecdote to share. A colleague works at a dental office with 4 DDS and 10 ancillary staff (chairside, hygiene, front desk). 6 of the staff are hard-core covid anti-vax. The rest of the office has been vaccinated. Masks are worn, but people are lax about it away from direct patient treatment.

So one unvaccinated staff member came in to work not sick, but feeling less than perfect one day. She was covid presymptomatic and exposed the entire staff. Anyone want to guess what happened?

Literally 100% of the vaccinated group was fine. No symptoms whatsoever.
And 100% of the anti-vax crowd not only got it, but several so severely they ended up almost being hospitalized.
Please feel free to draw your own conclusions. This colleague is someone I know well and he practices in the next suburb over from here.


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