Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

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Kbg
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:10 pm

There are very few people who are good systems thinkers or even understand the basic principles of systems thinking particularly when it comes to complex adaptive systems...some thoughts to ponder on this whole subject of the vaccines and masks (I completely agree with MJ...people generally take a sample size of 1 and extrapolate the crap out of it.)

Some of the most important characteristics of complex systems are:
  • The number of elements is sufficiently large that conventional descriptions (e.g. a system of differential equations) are not only impractical, but cease to assist in understanding the system. Moreover, the elements interact dynamically, and the interactions can be physical or involve the exchange of information.
  • Such interactions are rich, i.e. any element or sub-system in the system is affected by and affects several other elements or sub-systems
  • The interactions are non-linear: small changes in inputs, physical interactions or stimuli can cause large effects or very significant changes in outputs
  • Interactions are primarily but not exclusively with immediate neighbors and the nature of the influence is modulated
  • Any interaction can feed back onto itself directly or after a number of intervening stages. Such feedback can vary in quality. This is known as recurrency
  • The overall behavior of the system of elements is not predicted by the behavior of the individual elements
  • Such systems may be open and it may be difficult or impossible to define system boundaries
  • Complex systems operate under far from equilibrium conditions. There has to be a constant flow of energy to maintain the organization of the system
  • Complex systems have a history. They evolve and their past is co-responsible for their present behavior

  • Elements in the system may be ignorant of the behavior of the system as a whole, responding only to the information or physical stimuli available to them locally


A couple more highly relevant to COVID and COVID discussions
  • Hawthorne effect, a form of reactivity in which subjects modify an aspect of their behavior, in response to their knowing that they are being studied
  • Observer-expectancy effect, a form of reactivity in which a researcher's cognitive bias causes them to unconsciously influence the participants of an experiment
  • Observer bias, a detection bias in research studies resulting for example from an observer's cognitive biases


What I find completely baffling is how many seem incapable of changing viewpoints as evidence comes in. What I think is relatively clear from the evidence.

Masks and lockdowns do work and were implemented even in heavy red states when things got out of control

For the large majority, COVID ranged from a nothing burger to something akin to severe flu.

The vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down.

Pfizer #1 on 3/15...I'm ready to move on with a more normal life and hope to travel toward the end of the year and I expect vaccination passports are going to be a thing to travel internationally. While I appreciate that folks are concerned with how rushed it was, the fact remains COVID has been the most studied virus in human history in a very short period of time. I've been managing things for a little over two decades now and last time I checked a pretty solid management principle is: more people = things get done faster.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:19 pm

"Masks and lockdowns do work and were implemented even in heavy red states when things got out of control

The vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down."

Care do support these statements?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by pp4me » Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:17 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:19 pm
"Masks and lockdowns do work and were implemented even in heavy red states when things got out of control

The vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down."

Care do support these statements?
I'd like to see this too.

Florida was one of the red states that implemented mandatory masking and lockdowns but DeSantis figured out the error of his ways early on and reversed course. At this point in time I'm hard pressed to see much of anything that hasn't returned to near normal except for the wearing of masks in public places and if you watched any of the Super Bowl coverage and parties that followed you won't even see a lot of people wearing masks. Reporters from CNN even called and complained to the police. Schools are open, restaurants are nearly full, and have been for a long time. But we are still doing better than California and New York even with an older population. So how do the lockdown/masking advocates explain that?

They don't. They just stick to the tenets of their religion and call it "the science". Don't expect them to change.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:37 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:19 pm
"Masks and lockdowns do work and were implemented even in heavy red states when things got out of control

The vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down."

Care do support these statements?
I thought things "got of control" AFTER masks and lockdowns were forced on us.

If lockdowns and masks "worked"......what was there to rapidly bring down?
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:35 pm

pp4me wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:17 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:19 pm

"Masks and lockdowns do work and were implemented even in heavy red states when things got out of control

The vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down."

Care do support these statements?


I'd like to see this too.

Florida was one of the red states that implemented mandatory masking and lockdowns but DeSantis figured out the error of his ways early on and reversed course. At this point in time I'm hard pressed to see much of anything that hasn't returned to near normal except for the wearing of masks in public places and if you watched any of the Super Bowl coverage and parties that followed you won't even see a lot of people wearing masks. Reporters from CNN even called and complained to the police. Schools are open, restaurants are nearly full, and have been for a long time. But we are still doing better than California and New York even with an older population. So how do the lockdown/masking advocates explain that?

They don't. They just stick to the tenets of their religion and call it "the science". Don't expect them to change.


As I just see here..


Vindication for Ron DeSantis

The media vilified him for rejecting harsh lockdowns. But Florida’s Covid-19 numbers are better than California’s or New York’s, and its economy thrives.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vindicatio ... 1614986751
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:20 pm

COVID Stats...FL sits clearly in the middle of every category between NY, the highest of the three, and CA the lowest of the three

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... thsper100k

FL is doing better than both if one goes with real GDP growth...but I will ask the hard question:

Is FL doing better due to its COVID policy or economic and tax policy? Personally I'm going to go with the latter.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:27 pm

Statistics are funny things. Supposedly 10% of FL has had covid. What a bunch of nonsense.

I have lived and worked in FL for 20 years. My wife for 40. Not only do we not know a single person, friend, family member, coworker or acquaintance that's been sick, no one in the last year has even told us they know someone who was sick.

We also live in a county where the population of people over 65 is double the national average. Her dad is 82 and his entire social circle is above 70.

I'm sure covid isn't a total and complete 100% hoax but, well, I'm actually not sure of that.

I wonder if the masks and lockdowns have prevented people from interacting so much they are believing the TV and internet more than their life experience.

I have never heard of a single person getting sick except for the internet and news and i work for a massive company. Some coworkers tested positive but all that meant was they couldnt come to the office for 2 weeks. I've never met anyone who says they knew someone who got sick from this very strange "pandemic".
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Mar 07, 2021 5:53 am

Exactly my point when I said if you look at states where it spread first like New York and New Jersey we were the poster child for the disaster and deaths this virus can cause if unchecked ....it was running like wild fire .

Once we got hit so hard with hospitalized cases and deaths other states did what they needed to do so their cities were not hit like we were .

Almost every New Yorker likely has someone hit hard by it or died. Same likely in New Jersey ....even we were hospitalized with.

We had a ramp up after thanksgiving here when people got together with family and friends maskless , indoors with poor ventilation that was so bad . These people ended up being either pre symptomatic or asymptomatic and not knowing they had it .

I got it the week before Christmas...the hospitals were packed ....our floor was normally 300 single 1 bed rooms ..every room had 2 beds squeezed in . Some larger rooms had 3 and 4 wedged in ..there were over 600 beds filled on our floor alone and 2 were my wife and I ....our floor was only for covid as was the entire hospital wing. We included no icu patients on our floor since that was a different part of the hospital.

It is almost like when they first put seat belts in cars . you had those looking at stats after the seat belts were installed going why do we need seat belts , look at how low the deaths are statistically...

Or why did we need a polio vaccine , look at how few polio cases there are .

Duh , you can’t look at numbers after steps have already been implemented to reduce something and go why did we have to take these steps , the stats show relatively low numbers in many cities and areas
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by SomeDude » Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:38 am

Supposedly FL has had more cases per capita than New York. These numbers are completely fake.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by murphy_p_t » Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:22 am

Another fun fact is that at least one pharma executive has not submitted himself to his own experimental program.

Something about a cook who won't eat his own food...
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:14 am

murphy_p_t wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:22 am
Another fun fact is that at least one pharma executive has not submitted himself to his own experimental program.

Something about a cook who won't eat his own food...
There's certainly a smidgen of skepticism across the spectrum. I saw recently that among Chinese front line medical workers, less than half wanted to receive the Chinese-made vaccine. And once it becomes generally available, 25% want to get it. Among the US military, I think it was a third refused the vaccine (and this is despite pretty heavy messaging from above), the mRNA version having been developed using DARPA research.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:19 am

History is interesting here. I read the Skeptical Inquirer every now and then, just happened to get the latest one a couple days ago. Article about a family that catalogs historical info, and talked about polio.

Here's an couple ada from the 50s on the polio vaccine. Sure looks like history repeats itself!

Image

Image
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:31 am

SomeDude wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 7:38 am

Supposedly FL has had more cases per capita than New York. These numbers are completely fake.


This article is completely opposite to your beliefs. We'll see if you or the article turns out to be correct.

Spring breakers could spell ‘perfect storm’ for COVID-19 spread, expert warns

https://nypost.com/2021/03/07/spring-br ... -719093899
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:38 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:19 am

History is interesting here. I read the Skeptical Inquirer every now and then, just happened to get the latest one a couple days ago. Article about a family that catalogs historical info, and talked about polio.

Here's an couple ada from the 50s on the polio vaccine. Sure looks like history repeats itself!

Image

Image


How many of you do remember getting that polio vaccine? It must have been the summer of 1956? One of the earliest memories of my life was getting that shot. I think the reason why I remember it was because unlike the innumerable antihistamine shots I got during my first four years of school due to severe allergies....all those shots were by a needle while the polio shot was administered with a "gun". Anyone else get their shot that way? I never remember even getting any other shot via that means.

The other funny part associated with this was that summer my sister broke her leg. Being 100% Southern Italian like myself she can get a dark, dark tan and end up being darker than some some light black people.

My sister entered seventh grade that summer with her broken leg and met a girl who turned out to be her best friend from then through high school.

Years later that girl told my family that when she first saw my sister she thought my sister was a black cripple with polio!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by barrett » Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:11 am

Kbg wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:10 pm
What I find completely baffling is how many seem incapable of changing viewpoints as evidence comes in. What I think is relatively clear from the evidence.

Masks and lockdowns do work and were implemented even in heavy red states when things got out of control

For the large majority, COVID ranged from a nothing burger to something akin to severe flu.

The vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down.

Pfizer #1 on 3/15...I'm ready to move on with a more normal life and hope to travel toward the end of the year and I expect vaccination passports are going to be a thing to travel internationally. While I appreciate that folks are concerned with how rushed it was, the fact remains COVID has been the most studied virus in human history in a very short period of time. I've been managing things for a little over two decades now and last time I checked a pretty solid management principle is: more people = things get done faster.
Kbg,

I'm with you on most of this. I am scheduled for the first Moderna vaccine on 3/24 and will grab an earlier appointment if I can get it.

But I too would like to know what sources you are looking at to conclude that, "the vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down."

Let's take death rates, only for the purpose of trying to concentrate on the most important statistic (at least in my view). It looks like the Covid death rate started coming down quite dramatically in the U.S. around January 26. Also, it looks like the pace of the decrease slowed around February 20th but that it's still generally on a downward trajectory. One could conclude that since the vaccines started in December, the vaccines are responsible for the sharp decrease. BUT, I also see the same pattern for roughly the same dates for worldwide data. And worldwide the pace of vaccinations has been just a small fraction of what we've been able to do here in the U.S.

What I expect to see is that the U.S. Covid death rate will be quite low in another three months or so but that that will not happen for the world as a whole for much longer. But up to this point I just don't see the data as definitively positive as you seem to.

Would love to know from what you are drawing your conclusion regarding the vaccines and declining numbers.

Thanks in advance.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Maddy » Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:35 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 5:53 am
Duh , you can’t look at numbers after steps have already been implemented to reduce something and go why did we have to take these steps , the stats show relatively low numbers in many cities and areas
Sure you can. . . for the purpose of assessing whether those measures made any significant difference. And we're just not seeing that.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:21 pm

barrett wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:11 am

Kbg wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 4:10 pm

What I find completely baffling is how many seem incapable of changing viewpoints as evidence comes in. What I think is relatively clear from the evidence.

Masks and lockdowns do work and were implemented even in heavy red states when things got out of control

For the large majority, COVID ranged from a nothing burger to something akin to severe flu.

The vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down.

Pfizer #1 on 3/15...I'm ready to move on with a more normal life and hope to travel toward the end of the year and I expect vaccination passports are going to be a thing to travel internationally. While I appreciate that folks are concerned with how rushed it was, the fact remains COVID has been the most studied virus in human history in a very short period of time. I've been managing things for a little over two decades now and last time I checked a pretty solid management principle is: more people = things get done faster.


Kbg,

I'm with you on most of this. I am scheduled for the first Moderna vaccine on 3/24 and will grab an earlier appointment if I can get it.

But I too would like to know what sources you are looking at to conclude that, "the vaccination program is indisputably and rapidly bringing the numbers down."

Let's take death rates, only for the purpose of trying to concentrate on the most important statistic (at least in my view). It looks like the Covid death rate started coming down quite dramatically in the U.S. around January 26. Also, it looks like the pace of the decrease slowed around February 20th but that it's still generally on a downward trajectory. One could conclude that since the vaccines started in December, the vaccines are responsible for the sharp decrease. BUT, I also see the same pattern for roughly the same dates for worldwide data. And worldwide the pace of vaccinations has been just a small fraction of what we've been able to do here in the U.S.

What I expect to see is that the U.S. Covid death rate will be quite low in another three months or so but that that will not happen for the world as a whole for much longer. But up to this point I just don't see the data as definitively positive as you seem to.

Would love to know from what you are drawing your conclusion regarding the vaccines and declining numbers.

Thanks in advance.


In trying to determine when I did received my polio shot I found the below. It seems to reaffirm that I did get it in the summer of 1956. It does indicate that the vaccine significantly reduced the amount of polio cases. Is there a parallel between that vaccine effectiveness and the current ones?



In 1954, clinical trials using the Salk vaccine and a placebo began on nearly two million American schoolchildren. In April 1955, it was announced that the vaccine was effective and safe, and a nationwide inoculation campaign began. Shortly thereafter, tragedy struck in the Western and mid-Western United States, when more than 200,000 people were injected with a defective vaccine manufactured at Cutter Laboratories of Berkeley, California. Thousands of polio cases were reported, 200 children were left paralyzed and 10 died.

The incident delayed production of the vaccine, but new polio cases dropped to under 6,000 in 1957, the first year after the vaccine was widely available. In 1962, an oral vaccine developed by Polish-American researcher Albert Sabin became available, greatly facilitating distribution of the polio vaccine.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Kbg » Sun Mar 07, 2021 12:26 pm

barrett wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:11 am
Would love to know from what you are drawing your conclusion regarding the vaccines and declining numbers.
Thanks in advance.
Depending on the source the vaccines started being widely administered mid December.

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-positive (or pick your favorite tracking site, they all note pretty much the same thing)

Could be coincidence I guess.

I have to agree with SomeDude COVID apparently doesn't exist in FL. I'm glad he hasn't lost anyone to it and it's a non-issue in his world. It took out my first cousin pretty quickly who had cancer. I suppose the 3-5 years he was supposed to live that turned into 21 days for his family is no big thing. Stuff happens right?

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/c ... d-by-state
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:00 pm

Maddy wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:35 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 5:53 am
Duh , you can’t look at numbers after steps have already been implemented to reduce something and go why did we have to take these steps , the stats show relatively low numbers in many cities and areas
Sure you can. . . for the purpose of assessing whether those measures made any significant difference. And we're just not seeing that.
Let me know how you measure the unknown
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by D1984 » Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:36 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:11 pm
@Vinny The Salk polio vaccine was administered orally on a sugar cube. The vaccine that used 'the gun’ was for small pox.
I thought the Salk vaccine (the "dead" virus version) was injected--albeit with a syringe and not an injector gun--and the Sabin vaccine (the attenuated live virus version) was the one given on a sugar cube.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by Xan » Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:41 pm

murphy_p_t wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:22 am
Another fun fact is that at least one pharma executive has not submitted himself to his own experimental program.

Something about a cook who won't eat his own food...
He's just as likely to be excoriated for taking a vaccine away from somebody who needed it more. This is one of those no-win PR looks for a CEO.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:17 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:11 pm

@Vinny The Salk polio vaccine was administered orally on a sugar cube. The vaccine that used 'the gun’ was for small pox.


I seem to remember being in a long line of people to get it. Isn't small pox vaccination given individually at a certain age?

My friend who is same age as me, lived less than a mile from me, and went to the same elementary school also remembered the cube. So we have different memories.

He sent me this which fits with his memory and what you are saying: "If you’re of a certain age, you may remember as a child being given a sugar cube in a small paper cup. But what you may thought was a treat was in fact your immunization against polio."

However it went on to say: "At first, the vaccine developed by Salk and Dr. Albert Sabin at the University of Pittsburgh was injected. Later, it was given by Sabin vaccine-that sugar cube dosed with serum and taken orally."

Earlier I posted that the oral was not developed until 1962 which was six years after I remember getting my "gun" shot in 1956.

Therefore my now fuzzy memory has not been completely cleared up.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by vnatale » Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:22 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:03 pm

D1984 wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:36 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:11 pm

@Vinny The Salk polio vaccine was administered orally on a sugar cube. The vaccine that used 'the gun’ was for small pox.


I thought the Salk vaccine (the "dead" virus version) was injected--albeit with a syringe and not an injector gun--and the Sabin vaccine (the attenuated live virus version) was the one given on a sugar cube.


You are correct. In any case, the gun was for small pox, and since I don't know which version Vinny received, I can't say if it was oral or a shot, but my point is still basically valid.


Were their wide-spread small pox vaccinations? All I'm remembering now is being with my family also getting their shots, being in line, and the "gun".

Editing this here: Just found this: "Successful use of smallpox vaccine led to the gradual reduction of smallpox cases. The last U.S. wild smallpox case occurred in 1949. After intensive vaccination campaigns in the 1960s and 1970s, the last case of wild smallpox in the world occurred in 1977."

Is it possible I'm remembering the campaign of the 1960s when I was older and therefore more likely to remember it?

Again, since I had a four or so year period of my life where I was getting those innumerable needle shots having yet another one for something else would not have been a memorable experience for me.

Have no memory of any oral, sugar cube experiences. Not saying it did not happen. Just don't remember it. That would seem to fall into some that was not all that memorable.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by barrett » Sun Mar 07, 2021 3:37 pm

Thanks for posting this. It's a great site with a lot of details that I had not seen elsewhere. Alas, there's an announcement on the site that today (3/7/21) is the last day that they will be collecting data. Again, thanks.
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Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Post by WiseOne » Mon Mar 08, 2021 7:52 am

Don't forget that the first group vaccinated was in general at very low risk for COVID: health care workers. It wasn't until mid to late January that they started in on the most vulnerable group, i.e. people living in long term care facilities. And, don't forget that the vaccines don't become effective right away.

So that drop came too early to be explained by vaccination. Rather, it looks suspiciously like the shape of the curves early in the pandemic, which were consistent across the globe and totally unrelated to lockdowns, mask wearing etc. It also looks a lot like the shape of the curve for flu cases that occurs each winter - for COVID it just came earlier than it does for the flu.
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