COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by stuper1 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:42 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:38 pm
I pray we never have a disease with 100% asymptomatic status or it would be the undoing of humanity as we know it.
This was the line that got me!

You're on fire tomf!
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:13 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:28 pm
Well first, the average IQ of Somalis being lower than Norway is because IQ tests are biased and racist against blacks, especially poor, uneducated ones. Which is why we need to remove all form of IQ testing from our society, including IQ-wannabes like the SAT test and instead use alternative assessment measures that are more fair to poor minorities as college entrance mechanisms. This is the only way to remove the cycle of poverty. Sure, free college is great, and we’ll work on that under our administration, but if it only services the privileged white class due to racist barriers such as the SAT, then it will only lead to greater inequalities.

Second, Somalia chose to be libertarian because they are uneducated and believed what they read on the internet by Milton Friedman and Peter Schiff. It’s no coincidence Norway has the highest advanced degrees per capita and properly chose socialism based on informed educations.
I can definitely see your point about why IQ testing would skew numbers lower for Somalians. I doubt that many of them have read much Friedman or Schiff, if only because they probably haven't been translated into Somali (not sure if that's their language) that much.

Maybe it's more likely that libertarianism is what comes naturally to humans as a consequence of wanting to run their own lives and it takes decades of government education and social pressure and media bombardment to convince them to turn over the control of their lives to a small group of elite philosopher kings or billionaires.......all for the greater good of course.

The problem is then that humans naturally want control of their own lives rather than be ruled by others, and this is what leads to warlords and poverty and destruction and being ruled by others.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by vnatale » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:25 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:41 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:57 am

The problem is the young would go maskless and spew large viral loads on others , especially the older .

With 43% of positives asymptomatic that is a big problem .

Masks don’t stop virus material but they do stop concentrated viral loads which is the biggest factor as to how we do and how bad


Then I guess I'm a bit confused about the point you're trying to make.

In one of your previous posts, you said "People as a society react better when the messages are how things relate to them and protect them ..they are less responsive when it is something they have to do to protect someone else..."

So then I agreed with you and said yes, it's probably more effective to frame the message in a way that allows people to assess their own risk and take appropriate measures to protect themselves. Because people respond to those kinds of messages better than "you're responsible for protecting everyone else" kinds of messages.

But then you seemed to disagree with me and said (to paraphrase), "But we still need to tell everyone to wear masks because if you don't wear a mask, you endanger other people." Which seems to contradict what you said about people responding better to messages about how they can protect themselves.

If I've misunderstood you, please set me straight.


How about this one?

This virus gets spread from one person to another.

I will first compare it to sports, where there is always offense versus defense.

For those who do not have the virus, they are on defense, trying to keep it from invading them. For those with the virus they are (unintentionally) on offense.

When those without the virus get the virus then the offense has won.

To minimize the possibilities of the offense winning those on defense can engage in a myriad of defenses.

However, since this is an unintentional offense, those who are on offense can also engage in behaviors to reduce the effectiveness of their offense.

The major one would be practicing as much defense on their own to not get it in the first place. Once they do unknowingly have it then they can reduce their offense by wearing masks, maintaining safe distances, reducing social exposures to others.

Bottom line. There is only so much defense one can provide on one own. It's up to those (unintentionally) on offense to take measures to reduce the effectiveness of their offense.

My final analogy would be vehicles on the road.

Is anyone advocating having NO speed limits anywhere? No restrictions on how anyone drives while on common roads?

I can practice all the defensive driving in the world but I'm going to be helpless against someone who is clearly an offensive driver. Yes, we can penalize those who do cause harm. But it seems all societies have agreed that when it comes to vehicles on the road that limits are set as a form of prevention.

Why is such an infringement on personal rights and liberties to expect others to act in a responsible fashion so as to not put others at undue risk, others who can do as much as they want to protect themselves but who are helpless against an overwhelming offense?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Tortoise » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:31 pm

I understand the motivation behind asking people to wear masks and drive safely, Vinny.

The main point of my latest post was to understand mathjak's thought process, because he seemed to be saying two contradictory things: (1) People respond better to messages telling them how to protect themselves rather than how to protect others, and (2) people should be told to wear masks because it protects others.

Hopefully that clarifies my question. And it's a question that only mathjak can answer since it concerns his thought process, not other people's assumptions or guesses about his thought process.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:34 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:31 pm
I understand the motivation behind asking people to wear masks and drive safely, Vinny.

The main point of my latest post was to understand mathjak's thought process, because he seemed to be saying two contradictory things: (1) People respond better to messages telling them how to protect themselves rather than how to protect others, and (2) people should be told to wear masks because it protects others.

Hopefully that clarifies my question. And it's a question that only mathjak can answer since it concerns his thought process, not other people's assumptions or guesses about his thought process.
This feels a bit like a personal attack. No one is attacking libertarians for the nonsense you believe.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:38 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:31 pm
I understand the motivation behind asking people to wear masks and drive safely, Vinny.

The main point of my latest post was to understand mathjak's thought process, because he seemed to be saying two contradictory things: (1) People respond better to messages telling them how to protect themselves rather than how to protect others, and (2) people should be told to wear masks because it protects others.

Hopefully that clarifies my question. And it's a question that only mathjak can answer since it concerns his thought process, not other people's assumptions or guesses about his thought process.
Yes to both points ...the cdc , The Who and the talking heads were trying to convince the public to wear masks because they said masks protect others .....that is true .

But people as you see as a society don’t care that much about others .

But if you instead spread the message that it cuts the viral load you receive and improves your odds of not getting badly sick , well that is a whole different story and it may be easier for the public to embrace that and follow it.

They are both true about masks but there was so much opposition by many to masks because they were led to believe the benefit was for others and not themselves .

Got it now ?
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:00 pm

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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Tortoise » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:23 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:38 pm
They are both true about masks [masks protect others and yourself] but there was so much opposition by many to masks because they were led to believe the benefit was for others and not themselves .

Got it now ?
Yes, thanks for clarifying, mathjak.

Maybe somebody has already done this, but it would be interesting to poll a bunch of maskless people in places where masks are the norm and ask them for their rationale.

It's possible that some of them would say, "My personal comfort matters more to me than the possibility that I'm spreading more virus to others by not wearing a mask." But I suspect not many would, because although most people are selfish to varying degrees, most people are also not fundamentally evil.

So I think far more of them would probably say things along the lines of, "I don't see piles of bodies in the street, nor do I even personally know a single person who's died or been hospitalized due to Covid, so my common sense tells me this 'pandemic' isn't nearly as deadly and worrisome as many people are claiming it is. So I'm generally skeptical when those same people say that wearing a mask in public is a life-or-death matter."

In other words, if we were to ask them, I think most maskless people would say they're maskless not because they care more about themselves than about other people, but because they don't trust the media and authorities who are telling them being maskless is deadly.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:59 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:23 pm
In other words, if we were to ask them, I think most maskless people would say they're maskless not because they care more about themselves than about other people, but because they don't trust the media and authorities who are telling them being maskless is deadly.
As a person who is maskless as much as humanly possible while still functioning in society.....you are spot on.

In fact, I will go one further. The pandemic will only end when most everyone refuses to wear masks and the people wearing them feel embarrassed. Most people wearing them now just do it to fit in and look normal.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:01 pm

The only reason that will happen is vaccines..once people can get covid that is no worse than a cold at any age masks are not needed..masks reduce virus load and virus load is the primary factor as to whether you are asymptomatic or dead .

Everything else is secondary to the concentration of virus material you get ...while there is an age curve. What happens to you is based on concentration.

All masks cut concentration...they can’t stop a virus but they certainly can restrict the concentration both received and spread by you.

Vaccines are not 100% but what they are good at is cutting risk of serious covid or death to very low odds..

My wife and got nasty covid from no mask ,eating with a friend who was likely presymtomatic
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by vnatale » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:15 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:23 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:38 pm

They are both true about masks [masks protect others and yourself] but there was so much opposition by many to masks because they were led to believe the benefit was for others and not themselves .

Got it now ?


Yes, thanks for clarifying, mathjak.

Maybe somebody has already done this, but it would be interesting to poll a bunch of maskless people in places where masks are the norm and ask them for their rationale.

It's possible that some of them would say, "My personal comfort matters more to me than the possibility that I'm spreading more virus to others by not wearing a mask." But I suspect not many would, because although most people are selfish to varying degrees, most people are also not fundamentally evil.

So I think far more of them would probably say things along the lines of, "I don't see piles of bodies in the street, nor do I even personally know a single person who's died or been hospitalized due to Covid, so my common sense tells me this 'pandemic' isn't nearly as deadly and worrisome as many people are claiming it is. So I'm generally skeptical when those same people say that wearing a mask in public is a life-or-death matter."

In other words, if we were to ask them, I think most maskless people would say they're maskless not because they care more about themselves than about other people, but because they don't trust the media and authorities who are telling them being maskless is deadly.


Do these maskless people ever take it one step further and ask what is the motivation, what is in it for both the media and the authorities to act in such a way? And not giving a mindless mantra manner answer that it allows both of them more power, serves their agenda and goals?

If that is someone's answer then until I get a lot more convincing answer with far more detail then I'm assuming that going maskless is being done more for more reasons than distrust of authorities or the media.





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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:37 pm

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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:53 pm

Personally, I don’t understand the concern with when we can stop wearing masks and being responsible. Are the same maskless people clamoring for self-driving cars so they can stop wearing seatbelts?

How about this. We can stop wearing masks when we get 90% vaccination rates and $15/hr minimum wage. Deal?
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:28 am

We don’t need 90% rates anymore then we all need to wear masks for common colds or flu .

J&J s stopped death and serious illness after 28 days ..all we need is to reduce the effects of covid.

If someone wants to still wear a mask it is up to them but with the wind knocked out of covid sail ,masks can be relaxed in many situations...I would likely still use one at a concert indoors or sporting event but it is becoming less critical to use with the vaccines we have

You have to watch stats given very carefully...

Looking at even the number of hospitalizations and deaths vs total population looks tiny ..but comparing it to the group that tests positive tells a different story .

Once we break that group down by age we get a third set of numbers that grows even worse as you get to the ages most effected .with awful looking stats.

But the reality is to us humans statistics mean little ...all that matters is if the shit happened to you and how bad
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:12 am

In my experience, masks do seem to provide some level of protection.

Since March of last year, no one in my immediate family has gotten any kind of cold like illness. Sure, some can be attributed to not being in school. But for me and my wife, life has been pretty normal -- I go to work every day, we shop as usual, etc. I think I typically would get 2-4 colds a year, and my oldest daughter probably 6-10. Zero in the past 12 months. And she is at school.

Not saying that will mean I will wear a mask once I don't have to, but either/or/both mask wearing and distancing has dropped sickness a lot, in my family.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by doodle » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:53 am

My issue with masks is that they seem to induce an hypervigilance regarding germs that I'm not sure is socially or psychologically healthy. I never had an issue working out in crowded gyms or gave much thought to even washing my hands after handling weights...and despite my completely carefree attitude, I never got sick. Now, if there are more than a handful of people heavily breathing in my vicinity I grow irritated...like my airspace is being invaded. This is a totally novel sensation for me. I hope it wears off as it's not conducive to healthy social relationships. This pandemic has starkly highlighted the issue of tradeoffs for me. It's tough to know where to find the proper balance. It also has made me aware how ones subconscious actions and perceptions can be persuaded by a constant narrative...I never thought brainwashing would work on me...apparently though I'm not immune
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:01 am

We narrowed down our contracting covid to either a lunch with a friend or the gym..it is the only two things it could have been ...

Neither the friend or us know anyone we could have got it from except if we didn’t get it from him then it came from the gym.

The morning of the day I had my first symptoms that night . I was running at the gym with no signs yet .

I was highly contagious at that point , never knew it and even masked I was exhaling very hard while running spewing loads of cooties even with the mask since the volume and force I was exhaling was magnified many times over normal .

The same way someone may have gotten enough of a dose from me , I may have previously got it from someone there ....we are not near anyone but if the viral load is high enough you got it
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:30 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:12 am
In my experience, masks do seem to provide some level of protection.

Since March of last year, no one in my immediate family has gotten any kind of cold like illness. Sure, some can be attributed to not being in school. But for me and my wife, life has been pretty normal -- I go to work every day, we shop as usual, etc. I think I typically would get 2-4 colds a year, and my oldest daughter probably 6-10. Zero in the past 12 months. And she is at school.

Not saying that will mean I will wear a mask once I don't have to, but either/or/both mask wearing and distancing has dropped sickness a lot, in my family.
I echo the same experience. Everyone in my family and all of my friends have responsibly worn masks and none of know even know a single person who got covid. It’s really incredible that something as simple as masks work!
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:37 am

It is just a numbers game ...it is hard to find people that did not test positive and have covid or have some one in their family with it here in nyc
.

I lost count of all of those I know ...the more exposed to it mask or not the greater the odds of getting it ..

Unless you hide under a rock and never go out it was all over and with almost half of positives asymptomatic it easily was passed around families in the same household
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:32 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:30 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:12 am
In my experience, masks do seem to provide some level of protection.

Since March of last year, no one in my immediate family has gotten any kind of cold like illness. Sure, some can be attributed to not being in school. But for me and my wife, life has been pretty normal -- I go to work every day, we shop as usual, etc. I think I typically would get 2-4 colds a year, and my oldest daughter probably 6-10. Zero in the past 12 months. And she is at school.

Not saying that will mean I will wear a mask once I don't have to, but either/or/both mask wearing and distancing has dropped sickness a lot, in my family.
I echo the same experience. Everyone in my family and all of my friends have responsibly worn masks and none of know even know a single person who got covid. It’s really incredible that something as simple as masks work!
Were they recklessly only wearing one or responsibly wearing two?
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:39 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:37 am
It is just a numbers game ...it is hard to find people that did not test positive and have covid or have some one in their family with it here in nyc
.

I lost count of all of those I know ...the more exposed to it mask or not the greater the odds of getting it ..

Unless you hide under a rock and never go out it was all over and with almost half of positives asymptomatic it easily was passed around families in the same household
Hmm.
Unless you hide under a rock and never go out it was all over and with almost half of positives asymptomatic it easily was passed around families in the same household
You're on to something here.
Unless you hide under a rock and never go out it was all over
Why are New Yorkers being allowed outside their homes? Especially if you find it hard to find people or families unaffected by COVID, which is the opposite situation from a huge swath of the country. They clearly are not able to handle this. NYC would greatly benefit from having the military deployed to the city to weld doors closed and protect dirty sniffling New Yorkers from spreading the plague among themselves. Plus, they have the flamethrowers to responsibly cremate bodies in place.

It's funny to remember that NYC had set up barriers for people coming INTO it, instead of quarantining the city from the rest of the country. Other places, of course, don't need that kind of help, like the Dakotas, Florida, WV, etc.
[It is a] fact beyond question that soldiers' battles, where one side is entrenched and invisible and the other advancing in attack, are things of the past, except in a wooded country or where all preliminary movements are concealed. We had soldiers' battles here, but by fighting them the lesson has been taught which the world will learn.
- James Barnes. 15 years before WW I.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:57 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:39 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:37 am
It is just a numbers game ...it is hard to find people that did not test positive and have covid or have some one in their family with it here in nyc
.

I lost count of all of those I know ...the more exposed to it mask or not the greater the odds of getting it ..

Unless you hide under a rock and never go out it was all over and with almost half of positives asymptomatic it easily was passed around families in the same household
Hmm.
Unless you hide under a rock and never go out it was all over and with almost half of positives asymptomatic it easily was passed around families in the same household
You're on to something here.
Unless you hide under a rock and never go out it was all over
Why are New Yorkers being allowed outside their homes? Especially if you find it hard to find people or families unaffected by COVID, which is the opposite situation from a huge swath of the country. They clearly are not able to handle this. NYC would greatly benefit from having the military deployed to the city to weld doors closed and protect dirty sniffling New Yorkers from spreading the plague among themselves. Plus, they have the flamethrowers to responsibly cremate bodies in place.

It's funny to remember that NYC had set up barriers for people coming INTO it, instead of quarantining the city from the rest of the country. Other places, of course, don't need that kind of help, like the Dakotas, Florida, WV, etc.
Why don’t we lock ourselves inside ? Because there are things you always need to do or get or take care off.

Life still goes on ,, you strike a compromise as safe as you can without being a hermit and life goes on
Last edited by mathjak107 on Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:59 am

To be clear, New Yorkers may need someone else to lock them in their own homes.
[It is a] fact beyond question that soldiers' battles, where one side is entrenched and invisible and the other advancing in attack, are things of the past, except in a wooded country or where all preliminary movements are concealed. We had soldiers' battles here, but by fighting them the lesson has been taught which the world will learn.
- James Barnes. 15 years before WW I.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:20 pm

Nonsense ....we were just as able to get out , go to parks , outdoor exercise as anyone else ...just not near others which has been no problem ... we were out daily all year doing our photography thing ....we just go where no one is around us.

To think people are going to sit in their house for a year and look at the walls is absurd
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:36 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:20 pm
Nonsense ....we were just as able to get out , go to parks , outdoor exercise as anyone else ...just not near others which has been no problem ... we were out daily all year doing our photography thing ....we just go where no one is around us.
You will not be able to get out when your doors, windows, and weaker walls are reinforced by 2 inches of steel. It's for your own good.
To think people are going to sit in their house for a year and look at the walls is absurd
I disagree, millions of people sit in a rooms and stare at the walls. A lot of them even get jacked and have books written about their training system. Maybe a "COVID Conditioning" one could come out of this? Either way, it's not so absurd when you think about it. By your own admission, nearly 100% of New Yorkers are guilty of spreading disease, so this is totally legit and legal.
[It is a] fact beyond question that soldiers' battles, where one side is entrenched and invisible and the other advancing in attack, are things of the past, except in a wooded country or where all preliminary movements are concealed. We had soldiers' battles here, but by fighting them the lesson has been taught which the world will learn.
- James Barnes. 15 years before WW I.
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