COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

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COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:37 pm

As a long time registered Democrat, I am terrified that covid cases are declining sharply. I trust the science, particularly other Democratic Party registered scientists, and they tell us now is not the time to ease up on restrictions. The media concurs and I trust the media.

Case counts being sharply on the decline means people will stop taking it seriously and millions more will die unnecessarily.

I propose a simple 3-2-1 plan to eradicate covid.

3 — Wear three masks at all times. The first protects others. The second protects you. The third is extra protection.
2 — Two Vaccine boosters per person
1 — One year of economic shutdowns and travel restrictions except for those seeking asylum through Mexico

Three - Two - One - Gone, if we all do our part, we can go back to normal in one year. I promise.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by stuper1 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:12 pm

tomf,

I just have to say that you've been crushing it with your posts the last few months. Hat's off to you.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:16 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:37 pm
As a long time registered Democrat, I am terrified that covid cases are declining sharply. I trust the science, particularly other Democratic Party registered scientists, and they tell us now is not the time to ease up on restrictions. The media concurs and I trust the media.

Case counts being sharply on the decline means people will stop taking it seriously and millions more will die unnecessarily.

I propose a simple 3-2-1 plan to eradicate covid.

3 — Wear three masks at all times. The first protects others. The second protects you. The third is extra protection.
2 — Two Vaccine boosters per person
1 — One year of economic shutdowns and travel restrictions except for those seeking asylum through Mexico

Three - Two - One - Gone, if we all do our part, we can go back to normal in one year. I promise.
And how many millions of lives of the living will be crushed and destroyed economically? Far far more than covid ever did damage wise .

Not for nothing but almost half of all positives are asymptomatic .... all that is needed is the vaccines ....they reduce the risk of serious covid or death ...cold like symptoms are no problem if they exist .....

The vaccines themselves can do a great job as long as people get them ....there is no need for double or triple masking anymore
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:26 am

I think part of the problem is only 335M tests have been administered in the US. This is only a few million more than the total population.

At this point the number of tests should be at least a billion or more. With only 15% or so registering as positive, the tests are also not stringent enough. How will we convince everyone they're going to die unless the tests prove there's a 50-50 chance everyone is a grandma killing carrier?

In order to make the 3-2-1 plan work i propose adding a 5 and 4. 5 - 5/10 tests should be positive, 4 - 4x tests per year per person.

This is the only way to prevent literally trillions of Americans from dying. If life goes back to normal and the coronvirus hysteria disappears, literally everyone will die.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by sophie » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:42 am

Ah but Tom....you actually think the declining caseload will have an effect on the ever-increasing federal actions? Just like last summer, when cases were near zero for months?

You gotta love the New Logic. Masks work 100% to prevent the virus from spreading, but you have to double mask to get to 70% effective. And vaccination is 95% effective but you still have to wear masks. And in the meantime, while everyone was dutifully masked up and doing their distancing thing, the caseload spiked sharply during the winter season (as always happens this time of year, just a bit earlier I've noticed with COVID) and is now coming back down. With zero change in the masking effort.

If you can all make sense of this please do....I am at a total loss. Old logic (i.e. how we used to reason things pre-COVID) tells me there is a complete lack of correlation between masking/distancing and caseload. New logic, of course, says the opposite....can anyone explain that to me? Sorry, I'm just a scientist and I can't understand it.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:52 am

The vaccines work to lower the risk of serious covid and death very very low as well as make the amounts of virus load you can spew if you get it very low as well when it comes to passing it on .

We don’t need to get things to zero to get rid of masks and social distancing , but we do need enough people vaccinated to make all of our odds better.

Once we can still get it but only cold like symptoms it is not a threat ...


But the myths and messages sent out are poor .

why would I be driven to get vaccinated if you tell me I still need to wear masks and not hug or see my kids ? .why would I care about wearing a mask when you tell me it is to protect others from me ?

The reality is anything that cuts the viral load we ourselves receive is a major accomplishment...but that is not what the idiots in charge told us
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by sophie » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:12 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:52 am
We don’t need to get things to zero to get rid of masks and social distancing , but we do need enough people vaccinated to make all of our odds better.
...
The reality is anything that cuts the viral load we ourselves receive is a major accomplishment...but that is not what the idiots in charge told us
That's the crux of the question, I think. "Zero" risk will never happen, and if Fauci and the rest of the Biden administration still believe that they are living in a fantasy world. Trump knew better which is why he focused on vaccination and treatments, after initial containment efforts failed (as they were bound to).

As long as the zero risk ideology continues, we will continue to get the lockdown, social distance, and mask message. Which means, probably until the next Republican president is elected and stops the madness, unless people just start ignoring the laws sooner than that. I would guess that small business owners will be leading the way on that.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:36 am

sophie wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:12 am
probably until the next Republican president is elected
Trump "lost" 6 or 7 states that he actually won. With votings "rights" looming for millions of illegal aliens, Dominion voting machines, and I am certain an expansion of the mail-in voting.......there is about zero chance of seeing a Republican president again, unless he's fully on board with the communist agenda in which case we're better off with a Dem.

Coronvirus will be gone but we'll probably have MichUltravirus or Pasbtsblueribbonvirus or something.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:09 am

sophie wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:12 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:52 am
We don’t need to get things to zero to get rid of masks and social distancing , but we do need enough people vaccinated to make all of our odds better.
...
The reality is anything that cuts the viral load we ourselves receive is a major accomplishment...but that is not what the idiots in charge told us
That's the crux of the question, I think. "Zero" risk will never happen, and if Fauci and the rest of the Biden administration still believe that they are living in a fantasy world. Trump knew better which is why he focused on vaccination and treatments, after initial containment efforts failed (as they were bound to).

As long as the zero risk ideology continues, we will continue to get the lockdown, social distance, and mask message. Which means, probably until the next Republican president is elected and stops the madness, unless people just start ignoring the laws sooner than that. I would guess that small business owners will be leading the way on that.
A perfect example of the idiots in govt and in charge of our health

Zdogg is my expert source when it comes to covid

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EoM8ChHf6gc
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:15 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:52 am

why would I care about wearing a mask when you tell me it is to protect others from me ?
There’s a country filled with sociopath libertarians who don’t trust governments of democratically elected leaders or scientists and everyone only cares about themselves. It’s called Somalia and they’re going greeeeeeaaaaaaaat.

I guess we should get rid of turn signals on cars because it’s only there to protect others from you turning into them. Then the roads will be like a bumper car derby and the wealthy can afford to outfit their cars with carbon fiber and titanium shells while the poor get crushed inside their 1996 Volvos, and there’s no hospitals to go to because healthcare is socialism, don’t you know? And we can’t have that! Or else we might turn into Norway! Gosh, that place is horrible!

Nope, sign me up for Somalia where no one does anything if it doesn’t selfishly benefit themselves, and armed warlords run the place since no one trusts the government. THAT is where I want to live!
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:32 am

Very poor examples ..not using turn signals gets me hit and injured . It protects me .

People as a society react better when the messages are how things relate to them and protect them ..they are less responsive when it is something they have to do to protect someone else...

If you want an entire population to act in a certain way and do something you better get the message straight that you motivate them with and they didn’t do that .

What I said has nothing to do with what I would or wouldn’t do personally so save the examples
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Tortoise » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:43 am

Yes, that’s why many doctors and scientists have been saying since early last year that the message from governments should be “Here is the risk of Covid hospitalization and death for different age groups. And here is what you can do to protect yourself. Please assess your individual risk accordingly.”

That message focuses on you protecting yourself, not you trying to protect everyone else.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:48 am

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:43 am
Yes, that’s why many doctors and scientists have been saying since early last year that the message from governments should be “Here is the risk of Covid hospitalization and death for different age groups. And here is what you can do to protect yourself. Please assess your individual risk accordingly.”

That message focuses on you protecting yourself, not you trying to protect everyone else.
I’ve looked all over Facebook and YouTube and haven’t seen a single doctor saying this. Perhaps you’re looking on Parler?
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:51 am

TomFool......

Do you think that literally the only difference between Norway and Somalia is their choice of government?

Do you think that the average IQ of 100 in Norway vs. the average IQ of 68 in Somalia, which is mentally disabled, is a factor?

Perhaps the Somalis don't have a functioning government because they are not smart enough to create one? Or perhaps mentally disabled people simply can't comprehend the wisdom of having a government control their lives through the threat of violence so they embrace the ideals of libertarianism, lassie-fare capitalism and non-aggression principle which naturally leads to warlords ruling over them under the threat of violence.

Do you think that there is any impact from the 10's of thousands of harsh Norwegian winters which taught the people to be industrious, plan ahead, save, value property rights and have high social trust and cooperation to survive?

Or is the only difference literally that the Norwegians smartly chose socialist ideals and the Somalis foolishly worship at the alter of libertarianism and the ideals of freedom of the individual, literally.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:57 am

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:43 am
Yes, that’s why many doctors and scientists have been saying since early last year that the message from governments should be “Here is the risk of Covid hospitalization and death for different age groups. And here is what you can do to protect yourself. Please assess your individual risk accordingly.”

That message focuses on you protecting yourself, not you trying to protect everyone else.
The problem is the young would go maskless and spew large viral loads on others , especially the older .

With 43% of positives asymptomatic that is a big problem .

Masks don’t stop virus material but they do stop concentrated viral loads which is the biggest factor as to how we do and how bad
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:27 pm

Politics! Triggered to respond! :)

But seriously, I have been noticeably happier since I have dumped Zero Hedge and stopped worrying about how to respond to the latest political posting on here.

I highly recommend it.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:59 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:57 am
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:43 am
Yes, that’s why many doctors and scientists have been saying since early last year that the message from governments should be “Here is the risk of Covid hospitalization and death for different age groups. And here is what you can do to protect yourself. Please assess your individual risk accordingly.”

That message focuses on you protecting yourself, not you trying to protect everyone else.
The problem is the young would go maskless and spew large viral loads on others , especially the older .

With 43% of positives asymptomatic that is a big problem .
We need to have a national conversation about these old people who refuse to stay inside by themselves for the rest of their lives.
One horse can carry 125 kg on its back, but it can drag 2500 kg on a cart. If it pulls a barge along a river, it can drag 30,000 kg, 30 tonnes, and it can drag 50 tonnes if the weight is on a barge in quiet water, i.e., on a canal.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:05 pm

COVID is tough to separate from politics since a huge percentage of Covids impact on everyone is the government's actions with Covid as the pretense.

The libertarian vs socialism......thats philosophical to me as opposed to partisan politics. Surely we can examine Norway vs Somalia without getting too heated.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by SomeDude » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:06 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:59 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:57 am
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:43 am
Yes, that’s why many doctors and scientists have been saying since early last year that the message from governments should be “Here is the risk of Covid hospitalization and death for different age groups. And here is what you can do to protect yourself. Please assess your individual risk accordingly.”

That message focuses on you protecting yourself, not you trying to protect everyone else.
The problem is the young would go maskless and spew large viral loads on others , especially the older .

With 43% of positives asymptomatic that is a big problem .
We need to have a national conversation about these old people who refuse to stay inside by themselves for the rest of their lives.
It's almost like they prefer death to isolation.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:10 pm

It isn’t just old people ...anyone who gets a healthy dose of viral material can be very very sick ...
My roommate was 37 in the hospital with no underlying issues ...he just got a good dose .

While the older you are the greater the risk , all of us have skin in the game except kids.

Statistics mean nothing when it’s you shit happened to
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:28 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:51 am
TomFool......

Do you think that literally the only difference between Norway and Somalia is their choice of government?

Do you think that the average IQ of 100 in Norway vs. the average IQ of 68 in Somalia, which is mentally disabled, is a factor?

Perhaps the Somalis don't have a functioning government because they are not smart enough to create one? Or perhaps mentally disabled people simply can't comprehend the wisdom of having a government control their lives through the threat of violence so they embrace the ideals of libertarianism, lassie-fare capitalism and non-aggression principle which naturally leads to warlords ruling over them under the threat of violence.

Do you think that there is any impact from the 10's of thousands of harsh Norwegian winters which taught the people to be industrious, plan ahead, save, value property rights and have high social trust and cooperation to survive?

Or is the only difference literally that the Norwegians smartly chose socialist ideals and the Somalis foolishly worship at the alter of libertarianism and the ideals of freedom of the individual, literally.
Well first, the average IQ of Somalis being lower than Norway is because IQ tests are biased and racist against blacks, especially poor, uneducated ones. Which is why we need to remove all form of IQ testing from our society, including IQ-wannabes like the SAT test and instead use alternative assessment measures that are more fair to poor minorities as college entrance mechanisms. This is the only way to remove the cycle of poverty. Sure, free college is great, and we’ll work on that under our administration, but if it only services the privileged white class due to racist barriers such as the SAT, then it will only lead to greater inequalities.

Second, Somalia chose to be libertarian because they are uneducated and believed what they read on the internet by Milton Friedman and Peter Schiff. It’s no coincidence Norway has the highest advanced degrees per capita and properly chose socialism based on informed educations.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:38 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:06 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:59 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:57 am
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:43 am
Yes, that’s why many doctors and scientists have been saying since early last year that the message from governments should be “Here is the risk of Covid hospitalization and death for different age groups. And here is what you can do to protect yourself. Please assess your individual risk accordingly.”

That message focuses on you protecting yourself, not you trying to protect everyone else.
The problem is the young would go maskless and spew large viral loads on others , especially the older .

With 43% of positives asymptomatic that is a big problem .
We need to have a national conversation about these old people who refuse to stay inside by themselves for the rest of their lives.
It's almost like they prefer death to isolation.
Yeah but they’re preferring the death of other people over their own isolation. 83% of covid cases are asymptomatic, and that’s why it’s the most dangerous disease of all time. Because so few people are experiencing symptoms and they go out with their partying and their drinking beer and their eating tacos and their lifting weights at the gym, spreading the deadly virus to others, killing who knows how many, since we all know covid deaths are underreported.

I pray we never have a disease with 100% asymptomatic status or it would be the undoing of humanity as we know it.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by Tortoise » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:41 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:57 am
The problem is the young would go maskless and spew large viral loads on others , especially the older .

With 43% of positives asymptomatic that is a big problem .

Masks don’t stop virus material but they do stop concentrated viral loads which is the biggest factor as to how we do and how bad
Then I guess I'm a bit confused about the point you're trying to make.

In one of your previous posts, you said "People as a society react better when the messages are how things relate to them and protect them ..they are less responsive when it is something they have to do to protect someone else..."

So then I agreed with you and said yes, it's probably more effective to frame the message in a way that allows people to assess their own risk and take appropriate measures to protect themselves. Because people respond to those kinds of messages better than "you're responsible for protecting everyone else" kinds of messages.

But then you seemed to disagree with me and said (to paraphrase), "But we still need to tell everyone to wear masks because if you don't wear a mask, you endanger other people." Which seems to contradict what you said about people responding better to messages about how they can protect themselves.

If I've misunderstood you, please set me straight.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by tomfoolery » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:55 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:41 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:57 am
The problem is the young would go maskless and spew large viral loads on others , especially the older .

With 43% of positives asymptomatic that is a big problem .

Masks don’t stop virus material but they do stop concentrated viral loads which is the biggest factor as to how we do and how bad
Then I guess I'm a bit confused about the point you're trying to make.

In one of your previous posts, you said "People as a society react better when the messages are how things relate to them and protect them ..they are less responsive when it is something they have to do to protect someone else..."

So then I agreed with you and said yes, it's probably more effective to frame the message in a way that allows people to assess their own risk and take appropriate measures to protect themselves. Because people respond to those kinds of messages better than "you're responsible for protecting everyone else" kinds of messages.

But then you seemed to disagree with me and said (to paraphrase), "But we still need to tell everyone to wear masks because if you don't wear a mask, you endanger other people." Which seems to contradict what you said about people responding better to messages about how they can protect themselves.

If I've misunderstood you, please set me straight.
I understood it. Because as democrats, we see nuance. Libertarians just see things in black and white. How much money will it make you? As opposed to the multi-faceted thinking of educated democrats. No offense.
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Re: COVID Cases Sharply Declining: Why This Is Worst Case Scenario

Post by InsuranceGuy » Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:32 pm

tomfoolery wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:55 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:41 pm

Then I guess I'm a bit confused about the point you're trying to make.

In one of your previous posts, you said "People as a society react better when the messages are how things relate to them and protect them ..they are less responsive when it is something they have to do to protect someone else..."

So then I agreed with you and said yes, it's probably more effective to frame the message in a way that allows people to assess their own risk and take appropriate measures to protect themselves. Because people respond to those kinds of messages better than "you're responsible for protecting everyone else" kinds of messages.

But then you seemed to disagree with me and said (to paraphrase), "But we still need to tell everyone to wear masks because if you don't wear a mask, you endanger other people." Which seems to contradict what you said about people responding better to messages about how they can protect themselves.

If I've misunderstood you, please set me straight.
I understood it. Because as democrats, we see nuance. Libertarians just see things in black and white. How much money will it make you? As opposed to the multi-faceted thinking of educated democrats. No offense.
Tom - I literally choked on the brownie I was trying to eat reading this!
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