COVID explained

[SomeDude]

About 1% of the population dies every year.

Over 20M people have allegedly tested positive for COVID.

Probably at least double that number have the virus, possibly 3x or 4x, who knows? (This assumes COVID is real).

The people who test positive are much more likely to be sick for other reasons. Sick people (for other reasons) are more likely to get tested.

Ergo, people who get tested and test positive, were already more likely to die for some reason than the gen pop.

The gen pop dies at about 1% of the population per year.

Assume a little higher death rate for people who are sick already and getting tested......call it 1.5%.

21M positive cases x 1.5% = 315k people.

They are claiming people who die of cancer, heart disease, motorcycle accidents, falling off ladders etc. are due to Covid.

If even 20M were the ONLY actual COVID cases, and it was no more deadly than a stubbed toe......200k people WITH Covid would still die in a given year.

Wonder why its almost exclusively killing older sick people????? Because they are much more likely to die for ANY REASON WHATSOVER and then after the fact they call it COVID.

Please smart people, destroy me with logic I will admit I was wrong if you do.

-Some Dude
World famous antI-masker

[SomeDude]

Did you find a QAnon pamphlet and typed up what it said?

No i just spent 30 seconds thinking about the ridiculously low death rate and comparing it to the gen pop.

When you look at the population thats primarily dying and consider their normal death rate, you might come to the conclusion that Covid is lowering the death rate.

[Hal]

Please smart people, destroy me with logic I will admit I was wrong if you do.

-Some Dude
World famous antI-masker

Easy... Men wearing Black get upset if you don't wear a mask
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.a ... ng-a-mask/

[Cortopassi]

Did you find a QAnon pamphlet and typed up what it said?

No i just spent 30 seconds thinking about the ridiculously low death rate and comparing it to the gen pop.

When you look at the population thats primarily dying and consider their normal death rate, you might come to the conclusion that Covid is lowering the death rate.

You are just on fire SD. Ridiculously low death rate? I'll put this up again. Regardless of how many are with or by or from or related to Covid, there is absolutely a significant increase in excess deaths over past years. Did everyone get old and sick this year all of a sudden?

I will grant you that some % of the deaths, esp. after the lockdowns started, could be from other causes, stress and maybe suicides, I would guess, from losing jobs and businesses.

And this is not at all saying I agree with the lockdowns.

But unless you also want/need to believe this graph is just wrong, that the government is screwing us all over the place with bullshit data, deaths, voting, etc, that we can't even count dead people, regardless of cause, then I'm not sure what to say.

[WiseOne]

Where did that graph come from, Corto?

Ivor Cummins shows similar graphs depicting mortality #s for Europe and the US. The US one doesn't look anything like the graph you posted. Weird.

There is always a wintertime spike in deaths, and it's variable depending on the mix of cold/flu viruses that year. The question is not whether there is a mortality increase this winter, it's how it compares to the usual spikes. You have to look at more than a couple years history, also.

Here's a plot that puts this year into historical perspective:

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/uptr ... -43373.png

[Cortopassi]

Where did that graph come from, Corto?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

[barrett]

Where did that graph come from, Corto?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

For those who don't click on Cortopassi's link, it's from the home page of the CDC. Just eyeballing the graph shows about a 20% increase in deaths from all causes since March. I HATE being out of work due to the pandemic (and I'm still a regular at the local gym and eat out in restaurants) but the excess death numbers are very real.

[SomeDude]

Where did that graph come from, Corto?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm

For those who don't click on Cortopassi's link, it's from the home page of the CDC. Just eyeballing the graph shows about a 20% increase in deaths from all causes since March. I HATE being out of work due to the pandemic (and I'm still a regular at the local gym and eat out in restaurants) but the excess death numbers are very real.

I see the graph from the CDC. For arguments sake I will assume it's legit.

Can anyone take up the challenge and explain HOW covid is the cause of the excess deaths in 2020?

Please see my original post. Over 21M have allegedly tested positive. Basic logic dictates many many more than this are actually positive, lets just guess at double.

So call it 40M positive, probably at a min.

1% of the population dies every year or so. 1% of 40M is 400k.

We know hospitals are incentivized financially to report covid deaths and many deaths from other causes are being reported as "covid related".

Even with that death count inflation, its still right inline with the regular population death rate.

Please take up the challenge and offer an explanation.

Pointing to a graph and calling it proof of something is not an argument. Even assuming the graph is correct.....what is causing excess deaths? It does not appear to be covid.

This is not to mention that people over the age of 70 die at something like 8% already. Why are covid infected people dying at such a low rate by comparison????

[glennds]

This chart should be self explanatory in terms of source and methodology. However if it conflicts with what you already believe and your belief is non-negotiable, then it's probably worthless to you but I thought I'd give it a shot.

I have read elsewhere that the excess death count in the US in number (not percentage) terms for 2020 is somewhere in the neighborhood of 300,000. This number is lower than the mainstream media COVID death toll at year end of 354,000, so there is some number of substitute deaths i.e. a death attributed to Covid that is not truly excess versus prior years. But that substitute number looks to be in the 50,000 range while 300,000 look to be clearly excess over prior year averages and I think this is what the chart is illustrating. On average it also looks like the US has done worse than the other countries in the chart (not in every month, but on average, to my eye).

[Cortopassi]

SD, I am not understanding what you are getting at?

If not Covid, then what? What are you postulating?

Here's a closer clip of that chart, with Covid deaths as a different color.

If we agree the chart is legit, then we agree there's significant excess deaths this year. If we can agree on that, again, what are the excess deaths coming from if not Covid?

You bring this up, so don't turn it around and say you don't know, just not Covid. You obviously have something in your mind to discount this -- I am interested in what.

[SomeDude]

Cort.......i did the thinking work......you found a graph. You can ignore my thoughts and the logic and point to a graph, and conclude it must be covid, but then you should have some theory as to why the numbers dont make sense.

I don't need a theory as to why the graphs you found show excess deaths. The theory I have is they are either false data or there is some other thing causing excess deaths and I don't know what is.

No ulterior motive here. Sincere question below.

If we assume (safely i think) that about 40M americans are positive for Covid, and less than 1% of that population died in 2020, that is right at the normal death rate, no change for that population because they got the covid.

We know the death numbers are inflated also, it's just not known by how much. People dying in accidents and because of cancer and heart attacks are being recorded as Covid. That is a fact, not a theory.

How can excess deaths be due to covid if that population doesnt show an excessive death rate.

Help me figure out the flaw in my logic. Another graph won't help, it doesn't explain what is not making sense.

[SomeDude]

I already said i will accept the graphs at face value. I will accept there are a few hundred k excess deaths in 2020 for the sake of this discussion. What I'd like to know is how they can be due to COVID if the covid positive population has the same death rate OR lower than the gen pop.

You must remember almost all the covid deaths are people over 65 with comorbitities. This group already has a much higher death rate than the gen pop.

If the infection numbers and covid death numbers are correct, it looks like Covid actually prevents deaths.

Please help me find what I'm missing.

[Cortopassi]

The overall population fatality rate (2018) is approx 2.8M/328M = 0.85%. I believe 2019 and 2020 were on track for the reasonably same rate.

Adding Covid to the "normal" fatality rate for a year (2.8M+356K)/328M = 0.96% fatality rate.

Regardless of those that tested positive or not, "something" has increased 2020's fatality rate: (.96-.85)/.85, or about 13%. (Happy for anyone to challenge my math).
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Certainly up for discussion on whether 13% more people dying in a year warranted the lockdowns.
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[SomeDude]

The overall population fatality rate (2018) is approx 2.8M/328M = 0.85%. I believe 2019 and 2020 were on track for the reasonably same rate.

Adding Covid to the "normal" fatality rate for a year (2.8M+356K)/328M = 0.96% fatality rate.

Regardless of those that tested positive or not, "something" has increased 2020's fatality rate: (.96-.85)/.85, or about 13%. (Happy for anyone to challenge my math).
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Certainly up for discussion on whether 13% more people dying in a year warranted the lockdowns.
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Thanks Cort but before we talk lockdowns can we solve the mystery of the numbers?

The only plausible explanation i can see is:

1. Actual covid deaths are much higher and being attributed to something else.

2. Actual Covid cases are vastly lower than reported.

[WiseOne]

Thanks for breaking down the numbers like that, Cortopassi.

Like I said before, the lockdowns are great for me personally, because I absolutely love working from home. It's a disaster for my mother though, I really think it has hastened her cognitive decline. And it's definitely caused a large chunk of that 13% excess mortality, for all sorts of reasons that I've spelled out here many times before.

It's really indefensible, to have literally killed people and destroyed livelihoods and the economy for a minor spike in excess deaths - that was mostly in the initial COVID spike in each state (March/April in New York, summer in Florida, etc). It's unprecedented in human histo ry, with the sole exception of the Black Death. I'll leave it to you to calculate the increase in mortality during that period, but hint - it's a heck of a lot higher than 13%.

[vnatale]

For the 3,000+ people who were killed on one day - 9/11.....were any of the measures implemented then that are still in place and which greatly inconvenience a lot of people worth doing?

In theory, every 3 days this virus is killing the same amount of people that were killed on 9/11?

[Cortopassi]

For the 3,000+ people who were killed on one day - 9/11.....were any of the measures implemented then that are still in place and which greatly inconvenience a lot of people worth doing?

In theory, every 3 days this virus is killing the same amount of people that were killed on 9/11?

Good point. But I suppose the difference is that was an acute shock to everyone, in a miniscule amount of time. This is spread out over months, and while a lot are dying, most people just don't know anyone who's gotten more than sick vs. dead.

And SomeDude, sorry, I need to give up. I don't understand what you're getting at.

[vnatale]

For the 3,000+ people who were killed on one day - 9/11.....were any of the measures implemented then that are still in place and which greatly inconvenience a lot of people worth doing?

In theory, every 3 days this virus is killing the same amount of people that were killed on 9/11?

Good point. But I suppose the difference is that was an acute shock to everyone, in a miniscule amount of time. This is spread out over months, and while a lot are dying, most people just don't know anyone who's gotten more than sick vs. dead.

And SomeDude, sorry, I need to give up. I don't understand what you're getting at.

However, even way, way, way less people know anyone who was killed in 9/11.

All this time and $$$$$ diverted to protect us from another 9/11 are not free. It's probably also causing people to die in other ways since the resources necessary to have prevented their death have been consumed by future 9/11 prevention?

[Cortopassi]

No doubt, Vinny. Could easily go down that rabbit hole.

Got me thinking of marijuana getting legalized and hundreds of thousands of offenses in illinois for example getting vacated or pardoned recently.
Whatt a waste of time, money and life in prison for so many.

[SomeDude]

And SomeDude, sorry, I need to give up. I don't understand what you're getting at.

I understand and i am not trolling or criticizing you or anyone.

I am trying to make sense of the numbers and see what Im missing from anyone smart enough to figure that out.

I'll break it down one last time.

1. 21M people have tested positive
2. This is only a subset of the population that is in fact positive.
3. Ergo, many untested positive cases are out there.
4. I am WAGing that at double. I would bet its more than that based on the instances ive read about of random testing.
5. Lets say 42M Americans contracted COVID in 2020, although it was probably higher.
6. Hospitals have a financial incentive to over report covid deaths.
7. We know lots of people have died of.....whatever and its been classified as "covid related"

This is where math comes in.

Assuming 42M people infected, this group......even if Covid were nothing more than a stubbed toe, would still have had 360k deaths at the normal death rate.

If only 360k or so covid related deaths occured......and we know they are classifying people who die of cancer, heart disease, etc as covid related if the have it......where are the alleged excess deaths coming from?

How can they be from covid if the covid positive portion of the population dies at the exact same death rate!

What am i missing?

[SomeDude]

Of course you guys are changing the topic to lockdowns. Please dont. We can discuss lockdowns elsewhere.

Anyone want to take the covid death rate challenge and figure out the flaw in my logic?

[SomeDude]

13% increase in the death rate sound impressive, but even if you believe the numbers, without taking the challenge......the death rate has gone from 9/1,000 to 10/1,000.

And that tenth guy was over 65 and sick already.

We've given up everything for nothing.

Better put your mask back on slave.

[WiseOne]

What am i missing?

That there are excess deaths this year. A 13% increase, per Cortopassi's figures.

Not much of an excess, especially when put into historical perspective, but an excess nonetheless. You can then argue what proportion of the excess deaths were due to COVID, vs. due to the lockdowns - but you have to accept the overall death counts as a fact because that is the most reliable statistic out there.

The question is: how significant is this, really?

COVID has killed 357,132 in the US and 1,866,454 worldwide (per the Johns Hopkins website). You can argue whether this is an under- or over-count, but let's just call that as close to true as we're going to get. This is with the world population of 7.8 billion.

The 1918 flu killed 50,000,000 worldwide and 675,000 in the US. This is surely an undercount compared to COVID, given that there were no tests out there, just clinical symptoms to judge by. Some have estimated the death toll to be as high as 100 million. The world population at that time was 1.8 billion. That's an overall mortality of 2.7%. If all that is excess deaths, and 1% of the population normally dies per year (on average), that would be an increase of 270%.

2.7% of the current world population would be 210 million deaths. In the US with its population of 330 million, that would be almost 9 million deaths.

So in short, if you compare to the 1918 flu (which COVID has been claimed to be similar to), which did NOT trigger this same level of lockdowns or disruption of normal human activity but was certainly considered a major public health event, we have:

13% increase in mortality with COVID compared to 270% with the 1918 flu
357,132 COVID deaths, vs what would be 9 million flu deaths, if the 1918 flu occurred today

That's what the real message is: how bad does "bad" have to be before you start pushing panic buttons? "Excess" deaths happen in many years, depending on the mix of cold and flu viruses in a given year. Why all the lockdown mania this time around?

[Cortopassi]

It's a tough one, for sure.

WiseOne, you use "alleged excess deaths" in your first response and then in the response to SD, you do seem to acknowledge there are excess deaths, although minor compared to prior pandemics.

I agree.

I believe you've also stated a few times that you believe the first spike in March/April was real, and that given what was going on and the limited knowledge at the time that a lockdown was warranted, right?

I agree.

Which leaves, why the lockdown mania? I think you've got your choice of reasons here:

1) Mainstream media couldn't look away from the story and fanned/ are fanning the flames because it makes news and many people easily have the crap scared out of them.
2) Ineffective leadership (I'll say at most levels across most states and federal agencies) led to confusion and a variety of approaches. Not saying just Trump, but most governors. Would have been nice to see some sort of gathering of all the governors and a unified plan put in place, regardless of what the plan was.
3) An us vs. them attitude, heightened by both sides, on masks, alternative treatments, lockdowns, etc.
4) Self fulfilling results. A lockdown WILL drop cases. Then you loosen, cases rise, and you repeat the effort with diminishing results.
5) Way too much emphasis on the most negative outcomes, which almost have never come to pass -- overloading hospitals, death estimates wildly high and inaccurate, etc.

I can probably go on.

I just hope we never fucking have to go through this again.

[whatchamacallit]

I would like to find data on total population for each age group over the years.



This chart has a good breakdown of age groups with total population, total deaths and covid related deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... /index.htm

You can see 65 - 74 age range is double population of 75 - 84.

What would be interesting to see is how percentage of deaths for age group has changed over the years.

I expect that the 65-74 age group is considerably larger than that age group was 10 years ago. Which would mean higher total deaths for whole population on average.

I don't think people are dying just because they hit an age but I do think there is a larger group at an age now that make them more susceptible when something does go around.

Think back five years ago. Anyone else get sick around then? That is the last time I had a bad cold. I was told by doctor I just had a "virus" that was going around.