Bitcoin - they coming for you

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Smith1776
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:08 am

Seriously though, all that thoughtful allocation in the PP and VP, and the highest performing asset of the year for me (by far) was my throwaway Bitcoin speculation. ::) :o ???
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by I Shrugged » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:17 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:08 am
Seriously though, all that thoughtful allocation in the PP and VP, and the highest performing asset of the year for me (by far) was my throwaway Bitcoin speculation. ::) :o ???
I could say the same thing every year about my business. The PP has a different purpose.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:21 am

I have an intrinsic attraction to Bitcoin. It's money made with math as its only ingredient. That's damn cool.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by doodle » Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:57 pm

Another reason Bitcoin scares me for holding a great deal of wealth is there is no one to appeal to in the event that your money evaporates. Once money leaves your account it can never be clawed back, and since there is no centralized agency running this operation you have no legal recourse. Would I feel comfortable holding a small amount of money like that? Sure. Would I trust it with my life savings? Hell, no.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by dualstow » Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:34 pm

doodle wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:57 pm
Another reason Bitcoin scares me for holding a great deal of wealth is there is no one to appeal to in the event that your money evaporates. Once money leaves your account it can never be clawed back, and since there is no centralized agency running this operation you have no legal recourse. Would I feel comfortable holding a small amount of money like that? Sure. Would I trust it with my life savings? Hell, no.
What if you could convert it to cash for a minimal fee at a single place you trust? Perhaps PayPal.
The annual inflation rate for the United States is 1.4% for the 12 months ended January 2021
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by I Shrugged » Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:56 pm

doodle wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:57 pm
Another reason Bitcoin scares me for holding a great deal of wealth is there is no one to appeal to in the event that your money evaporates. Once money leaves your account it can never be clawed back, and since there is no centralized agency running this operation you have no legal recourse. Would I feel comfortable holding a small amount of money like that? Sure. Would I trust it with my life savings? Hell, no.
I’m with you.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by flyingpylon » Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:09 pm

Not saying anyone should put their life savings into Bitcoin, but check out Coinbase, it’s legit. https://www.coinbase.com/
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:32 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:48 pm
I am coming around to the idea that an effective cryptocurrency doesn't need any backing and is probably better off without it. If there's no backing then there's nothing to steal or misappropriate. Some people shoot back and say then there's no inherent value, and that leads us perilously close to philosophy and metaphysics.

IMO the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is in the network itself (network effect).
It is not really too heady to see plainly that all value is subjective based on the preferences and environment of the individual.

I would trade a gold coin for a glass of water if I were in an environment where I had no water.

Bitcoin doesn’t need to be backed by anything just like gold doesn’t need to be backed by anything. A common thought here is because gold has non-monetary uses like jewelry or whatnot that it somehow has some "intrinsic value". Since value is subjective, the jewelry/non-monetary value of gold is not guaranteed to hold up over time and thus isnt "intrinsic" in the sense folks intend.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:36 am

doodle wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:40 pm
I wonder if anyone has considered creating a gold backed digital currency that would allow convertibility into gold while also allowing the transactability of Bitcoin. Seems like gold bugs should be answering the crypto revolution with their own product.
A gold-backed cryptocurrency requires a centralized third party and thus is in no way a competitor to Bitcoin. Its tokens represent a claim on something in the real world. How is this really different from an ETF that trades 24/7?

Bitcoin is a digital bearer asset. It isn't a claim on anything and requires no central third party.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:39 am

doodle wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:57 pm
Another reason Bitcoin scares me for holding a great deal of wealth is there is no one to appeal to in the event that your money evaporates. Once money leaves your account it can never be clawed back, and since there is no centralized agency running this operation you have no legal recourse. Would I feel comfortable holding a small amount of money like that? Sure. Would I trust it with my life savings? Hell, no.
A digital bearer asset comes with these downsides for sure.

Custodians are popping up and I believe banks can now custody bitcoin due to recent legal rulings in the US. Of course this doesn’t mean they cannot lose your bitcoins for you!

Additionally there is increasingly insurance against theft available when using some of the bigger bitcoin custodians. With all the caveats that come with that.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by barrett » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:51 am

I don't understand the first thing about Bitcoin but I do have one anecdote...

At the gym where I work out there is a Nigerian guy who likes to talk about his investments and how he's made X amount of money on whatever. When Bitcoin hit $20,000 last month he sold his entire position and told me that it was about to get hit hard because Chinese New Year was fast approaching. He said that the buyers of Bitcoin are mostly Chinese and that they needed to pull a bunch of money out for New Year's expenditures. Ouch.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:55 am

barrett wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:51 am
I don't understand the first thing about Bitcoin but I do have one anecdote...

At the gym where I work out there is a Nigerian guy who likes to talk about his investments and how he's made X amount of money on whatever. When Bitcoin hit $20,000 last month he sold his entire position and told me that it was about to get hit hard because Chinese New Year was fast approaching. He said that the buyers of Bitcoin are mostly Chinese and that they needed to pull a bunch of money out for New Year's expenditures. Ouch.
That is too bad for him. But also goes really against the common perspective in bitcoin markets that:
  • China has most of the mining, meaning they are buying electricity to mint bitcoins and would thus be net sellers of bitcoin to cover expenses
  • The west (US) has been on a buying tear for the last months
However, something something never go broke taking profits.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by doodle » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:06 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:36 am
doodle wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:40 pm
I wonder if anyone has considered creating a gold backed digital currency that would allow convertibility into gold while also allowing the transactability of Bitcoin. Seems like gold bugs should be answering the crypto revolution with their own product.
A gold-backed cryptocurrency requires a centralized third party and thus is in no way a competitor to Bitcoin. Its tokens represent a claim on something in the real world. How is this really different from an ETF that trades 24/7?

Bitcoin is a digital bearer asset. It isn't a claim on anything and requires no central third party.
I was thinking in terms of making gold more liquid and easier to conduct international exchanges. It's price stability is way more attractive than Bitcoin when using it as money.

As far as centralization, Bitcoin isn't immune from this.

Bitcoin’s infrastructure is more centralized than ever before --raising alarms about the security and viability of what is championed as a decentralized network.

Transactions on the Bitcoin network are processed by so-called miners -- mostly companies operating vast arrays of computers. As competition increased, many smaller participants became unprofitable and dropped out, while the larger operations have entered into various partnership agreements. As a result, five mining entities -- all of them based in China -- control 49.9% of all computing power on the network, the highest concentration of mining power ever, a new analysis from TokenAnalyst found.
However, gold isn't centralized in the same way that fiat curency is. It must be mined from the earth and therefore other than the custodial issue it isn't a centralized commodity.

Besides, centralization isn't all bad. As I mentioned before it allows money lost to be clawed back. In Bitcoin there is no party to appeal to where disputes can be raised.

Finally, the nature of Bitcoin is going to invite future government regulation and oversight. The potential of a currency like it to be used for all sorts of illegal activity is going to invite a lot of government scrutiny.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:13 am

doodle wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:06 am
Finally, the nature of Bitcoin is going to invite future government regulation and oversight. The potential of a currency like it to be used for all sorts of illegal activity is going to invite a lot of government scrutiny.
Bitcoin is anti government and anti central banks. If governments and CBs didn’t inflate the money supply, censor transactions, seize their citizens wealth, or spy on their transactions, bitcoin wouldn't have a use case and be worth much less/zero.

If you think governments and CBs are likely to "behave" in the coming years, a short on bitcoin would pay handsomely.

However, if you think we are entering an era of MMT, UBI, financial repression, etc then a bet on Bitcoin is likely to pay off well.

Since the US central bank is the largest, the showdown will be bloody when it comes. Things already heating up now.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by Xan » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:25 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:13 am
...spy on their transactions...
Doesn't Bitcoin keep a complete record of all transactions forever and ever?
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by doodle » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:52 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:13 am
doodle wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:06 am
Finally, the nature of Bitcoin is going to invite future government regulation and oversight. The potential of a currency like it to be used for all sorts of illegal activity is going to invite a lot of government scrutiny.
Bitcoin is anti government and anti central banks. If governments and CBs didn’t inflate the money supply, censor transactions, seize their citizens wealth, or spy on their transactions, bitcoin wouldn't have a use case and be worth much less/zero.

If you think governments and CBs are likely to "behave" in the coming years, a short on bitcoin would pay handsomely.

However, if you think we are entering an era of MMT, UBI, financial repression, etc then a bet on Bitcoin is likely to pay off well.

Since the US central bank is the largest, the showdown will be bloody when it comes. Things already heating up now.
And if the US government were to outlaw Bitcoin because it is being used for criminal activity? What effect would that have on price?
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:56 am

Xan wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:25 am
bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:13 am
...spy on their transactions...
Doesn't Bitcoin keep a complete record of all transactions forever and ever?
Surely, but only addresses are recorded (pseudonymous). Not name address phone number merchant email, associated passport, social credit score, blah blah.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by bitcoininthevp » Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:04 am

doodle wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:52 am
And if the US government were to outlaw Bitcoin because it is being used for criminal activity? What effect would that have on price?
Terrible for price short term. And they will likely try something like it. Blame terrorist attack on Bitcoin, blame Bitcoin for global warming, the wealth gap, whatever. Any potential bitcoin investor should be aware of these risks, and likelihoods even.

In the longer term, the government doesn’t have a great track record with wars-on___. War on drugs resulted in now legalizing pot everywhere, for example. Also you could see US outlawing Bitcoin and other countries actively wanting to support Bitcoin for just that reason! With so much jurisdictional freedom to work from anywhere these days, I see a bitcoiner exodus (however small) from the US in such a case as well.

Hopefully we can get all of the fortune 500 invested in some form. And government officials as holders for that matter. Makes such an attack less likely or less severe. Buys time to keep bitcoin growing in the meantime.
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Re: Bitcoin - they coming for you

Post by doodle » Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:20 am

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:04 am
doodle wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:52 am
And if the US government were to outlaw Bitcoin because it is being used for criminal activity? What effect would that have on price?
Terrible for price short term. And they will likely try something like it. Blame terrorist attack on Bitcoin, blame Bitcoin for global warming, the wealth gap, whatever. Any potential bitcoin investor should be aware of these risks, and likelihoods even.

In the longer term, the government doesn’t have a great track record with wars-on___. War on drugs resulted in now legalizing pot everywhere, for example. Also you could see US outlawing Bitcoin and other countries actively wanting to support Bitcoin for just that reason! With so much jurisdictional freedom to work from anywhere these days, I see a bitcoiner exodus (however small) from the US in such a case as well.

Hopefully we can get all of the fortune 500 invested in some form. And government officials as holders for that matter. Makes such an attack less likely or less severe. Buys time to keep bitcoin growing in the meantime.
Bitcoin is a great proof of concept for me, but it is shrouded in too much mystique and mystery and supported by a fervency that makes gold bugs seem modest and reserved by comparison. The power consumption, the Chinese miner stake, the scrutiny from government, potential for criminal activity, and lack of dispute resolution channels are just too much for me at this point. Im mesmerized by the storyline and love watching things unfold but I'm afraid Im too chickenshit to jump on the boat. A 100% loss is way too much risk for me to make an investment beyond a small pittance. At current prices I can't conceive of more than a 300% gain for the immediate future and those numbers aren't big enough to motivate me. This will be a very interesting space to watch unfold though! Our current governmental dysfunction is playing a big role in the recent run-up I would think.....will be interesting to see what happens if/when things settle down.
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