Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

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Mark Leavy
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Mark Leavy » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:18 am

pugchief wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:50 pm
Mark Leavy wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:36 pm
pugchief wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:09 pm
I have an appointment to get the first dose of the Moderna vaccine next week. Anyone want to talk me out of it?
Hell no. I'm all in favor of anyone not me getting the vaccine early and often.
Thank you for your service.
Glad to oblige. If that was your attempt to dissuade me, you'll have to do better tho.
In all seriousness, I think the vaccine will be net positive - especially for anyone in a risk group, or as in your case, good for your business. And if it turns out that I need it to fly overseas, I'll be asking for the front of the line.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by sophie » Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:17 am

pugchief wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:09 pm
I have an appointment to get the first dose of the Moderna vaccine next week. Anyone want to talk me out of it?
Of course I wouldn't do that. But, I'll explain my reasoning for the decisions I made, and let's see if that helps. It all boils down to benefit vs. risk - which is what should guide any medical decision.

First: I am low risk - and most likely, much lower risk than the average American due to my age, general health & diet, & lack of comorbid conditions. We know that only 5% of COVID deaths occurred in people with no comorbid conditions. Also I'm pretty sure I've had at least two high risk exposures to COVID, and never had any symptoms.

Second: It will not change my life one tiny bit. We will still be semi-locked down, working from home, wearing masks, distancing etc for the foreseeable future.

Third: I'm only rarely face to face with a patient. And according my hospital, everybody is 100% safe if all parties are wearing masks. We all know that's ridiculous, but...it's what they tell me.

And, the big one...

This is the first time the mRNA vaccine technology has been used. That makes this vaccine a double whammy of unknown risk. In a month or two, we'll have a pretty good idea of short term risks, and it's already looking like it's pretty negligible. However, there is no data at all on long-term risks. For example, I can easily imagine long term increases in cancer risk, or impaired immune function. We don't know a lot about how mRNA works; the research on this started relatively recently due to new genetic testing technologies. The Phase 3 trials are supposed to take a couple of years to complete, but for the purposes of this quickie approval, only 2 months of data were used. That also means that there's no indication of how long the vaccine will be effective, beyond the two months.

As a cautionary tale, thalidomide was considered to be so safe and effective it was approved without going through the long term trials. Oopsie. As you all know, this resulted in births of a lot of kids with missing limbs. The COVID vaccines are our modern day version of what could well turn out to be another thalidomide situation.

So on balance, the benefit to me is nil, and the risks are unknown. Could be anything from nil to thalidomide-level badness. We just don't know.

In your case pugchief, there may be more benefits to be had. Like, if you're in a higher risk group (I believe you are by age), or if your dental practice would benefit from your being vaccinated. That could change the calculus. I'm actually planning to help my mom get the COVID vaccine once it becomes available to her group (>age 80, outside of care homes). There's a much clearer benefit to her, whereas long-term consequences are rather less of a concern given her age.

I know what you're thinking now: I should get the vaccine to protect my mom. That is indeed a potential benefit and it's the one thing that might make me decide to get it earlier than I otherwise would like. What I would like best, of course, is to wait until the Phase 3 trials are completed & reported, which is about 2 years. I would be pretty surprised if the vaccine weren't made mandatory well before then, so in reality I might only be able to hold out a month or two. Hoping for 3.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 31, 2020 12:00 pm

Mountaineer wrote:
Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:01 am

pugchief wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:09 pm

I have an appointment to get the first dose of the Moderna vaccine next week. Anyone want to talk me out of it?


Best wishes. Please let us know your experience. I'm still contemplating but leaning heavily toward getting vaccinated whenever my place in line comes up. My daughter-in-law (hospital admin) just got the first shot, said it was like a flu shot. No biggie. My nurse daughter is still leaning no - says not enough time to have evaluated long term consequences.


Seems similar to software users? Some choose to be beta users while some other want to wait until version 2.0 is out?

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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Maddy » Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:18 pm

pugchief wrote:
Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:09 pm
I have an appointment to get the first dose of the Moderna vaccine next week. Anyone want to talk me out of it?
If you're going to be a research subject, I'd suggest you sign up for a study that pays. Having regularly done this for tuition money while working in a university research lab, this is something I know a fair bit about. The ones that require you to drink something radioactive are generally the most lucrative.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by vnatale » Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:35 pm

If true about the safety (or lack thereof) of this vaccine then it somewhat takes off the luster of Trump's constant crowing (as recently as yesterday) about what a great feat this was?

Somewhat you get what you pay for? You take shortcuts from the normal process and you might get an inferior result?

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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Xan » Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:48 pm

I don't truly understand vaccine hesitancy.

Group A: You think that COVID is the worst thing ever. For sure you'll want the vaccine.

Group B: You think that all this masking and distancing and shutting everything down is an overreaction. Don't you also want the vaccine?

Group B knows there's no perfect safety, and is comfortable taking small risks in order to live their lives. It seems that if you're in Group B, you'd a) want to get back to normal ASAP, and b) would be okay with the small risk of something going wrong from the vaccine.

Speaking for myself, give me the vaccine. I want my life back.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Tortoise » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:24 pm

Xan wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:48 pm
Speaking for myself, give me the vaccine. I want my life back.
How does taking the vaccine give you your life back?

What if the risk of complications from Covid at your age and health status is lower than the risk of complications from the vaccine?
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by SomeDude » Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:37 pm

I'm in group C. I'm skeptical COVID is even a thing. I think if we weren't testing for it, we might not know anything was different. Maybe this would go down as a bad flu year, but maybe not. Probably not.

Taking this vaccine seems crazy to me, not just for me, but for anyone. Its not even a vaccine right? Its gene therapy. Who knows what else it will screw up in your body.

If i was really worried about getting the flu, I'd avoid contact with people as much as possible until i was no longer worried.

At any rate, i haven't even had a cold in 20 years.

I started to "get my life back" yesterday. I went grocery shopping and i saw an elderly man without a mask on. I took mine off and asked him if anyone hassles him for not wearing. He said nope, no one says anything. So i finished shopping with mine off.

In my estimation, COVID will end when we stop testing and stop wearing masks.

I realize some other posters will get incensed by what i wrote here. Ohhh well its the internet guys. You don't have to come over to my place for dinner. If you did though i would insist you take off your masks.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by tomfoolery » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:37 pm

Xan wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:48 pm
It seems that if you're in Group B, you'd a) want to get back to normal ASAP, and b) would be okay with the small risk of something going wrong from the vaccine.

Speaking for myself, give me the vaccine. I want my life back.
Covid didn’t take away our lives, the government did.

What makes you think if we all line up like good little boys and girls and take our flu shot that the government will allow us to return to having normal lives?

When covid first hit, all of the state governments said 4 week shutdown. I knew from the start that was horseshit and if they said the truth, 18 month lockdown, people would revolt. But it was 4 weeks. We were all promised that if we stayed home like good little boys and girls and wore our masks during our single allowable weekly trip out of the house for socially distanced grocery shopping, then we could go back to normal. In 4 weeks.

Then it was extended another 4 weeks.

And another 4.

Many states and countries are still locked down. 10 months later. With no end in sight.

So do I believe the government now, that if I take my flu shot then we can go back to eating at restaurants and getting haircuts? After they lied about the first lockdown duration. Lied about not needing masks. Then lied about masks actually working. Meanwhile social media and YouTube block anything that opposes masks or questions the efficacy and safety of a vaccine using a wholly new method, mRNA, designed faster than any vaccine in history. That needs very specific refrigeration requirements to work.

And might only give a few months of immunity.

So if we all line up like gold little boys and girls and get the flu shot booster every 6 months, then we can go back to normal.

Except the vaccine 95% efficacy testing is based on catching covid in the wild. In 2020. Given mask mandates, social distancing requirements, and business lockdowns.

Perhaps the vaccine is only 10% effective if we went back to normal? No one knows, it wasn’t tested by exposing people to sick people in a normal pre-2020 environment. It was tested by giving people the vaccine or placebo and sending them home to their locked-down Los Angelos county with businesses closed, everyone wearing masks, and people standing 10 feet away in public. And In those conditions it was “95% effective”

But the vaccine only had 200 test subjects. They claim 44k subjects, up of those, only 200 contracted covid in the wild. And 95% were from the placebo group. So it’s 95% effective in those 200 people.

Half of the 44k people got placebo shots. That’s 22k And only 190 of those got covid. So the placebo resulted in 99.2% covid prevention.

Perhaps we can give our injections of normal saline and go back to everyday life.

Assuming the government lets us.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Smith1776 » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:45 pm

If you immunize your bond portfolio do you still need the vaccine for COVID? Asking for a friend.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by SomeDude » Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:55 pm

FWIW to some of you, the "vaccine" was developed using tissue from aborted babies.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by dualstow » Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:41 am

SomeDude wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:55 pm
FWIW to some of you, the "vaccine" was developed using tissue from aborted babies.
Technically true, but:
https://www.verywellhealth.com/do-vacci ... sue-260337

The Vatican has taken a stand on the issue. In 2017, the Vatican's Pontifical Academy for Life said that lack of vaccinations represents a serious health risk.

They stated, "In the past, vaccines had been prepared using cells from aborted human fetuses, however currently used cell lines are very distant from the original abortions ... today it is no longer necessary to obtain cells from new voluntary abortions, and that the cell lines on which the vaccines are based in are derived solely from two fetuses originally aborted in the 1960’s."
see also:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06 ... etal-cells
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:59 am

SomeDude wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:37 pm
I'm in group C. I'm skeptical COVID is even a thing. I think if we weren't testing for it, we might not know anything was different. Maybe this would go down as a bad flu year, but maybe not. Probably not.

Taking this vaccine seems crazy to me, not just for me, but for anyone. Its not even a vaccine right? Its gene therapy. Who knows what else it will screw up in your body.

If i was really worried about getting the flu, I'd avoid contact with people as much as possible until i was no longer worried.

I started to "get my life back" yesterday. I went grocery shopping and i saw an elderly man without a mask on. I took mine off and asked him if anyone hassles him for not wearing. He said nope, no one says anything. So i finished shopping with mine off.

In my estimation, COVID will end when we stop testing and stop wearing masks.
Couldn't agree more.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by sophie » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:07 am

Xan wrote:
Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:48 pm
Speaking for myself, give me the vaccine. I want my life back.
Xan, if the vaccine would indeed give you your life back, i.e. lead to relaxing of mask/distancing/lockdowns, then I could understand that. However, it won't - and it's not because politicians are lying. They're not. They're telling us straight-up that lockdowns, mask mandates, distancing etc will continue. You don't get to not wear a mask or throw a dinner party because you got the vaccine.

I don't really know what the end point of the pandemic is. I guess when the positive test rate drops to zero, or near zero, and stays there for a minimum of 6 months to a year. And, the ICUs are empty of patients with respiratory illness. Remember it was less than 1% all summer with very little ICU action but that wasn't enough, so I assume something like the above conditions would have to happen.

And the thing is, that will never happen. What's the false positive rate of the tests, including detecting past infection? There have been a few educated guesses of somewhere in the neighborhood of 1%. Certainly not zero. And, there will always be patients flooding into ICUs with respiratory illnesses in the winter. So I'm guessing that the pandemic will end only when a) the people get tired of it and just start ignoring the laws, making them impossible to enforce, or b) politicians realize there is no endpoint, they get tired of the endless cycling, and they'll simply declare victory and walk off the field based on whatever numbers they decide to talk about. God only knows what role the vaccine will play in all that, but I'm guessing it won't be a big factor.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Xan » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:27 am

I'm not sure what y'all are talking about. Maybe it's different in CA or NY, but here, all the constraints are self-imposed. My kids' indoor bounce place is closed because people don't want to go there. Nobody's hosting or attending dinner parties because they think it isn't a good idea. I think restaurants are mandated to max 50% capacity. Other than that there isn't much government involvement.

I don't care whose fault it is: the virus itself, government, people. The vaccine will let everybody get back to normal and I can't wait.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by glennds » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:44 am

Xan wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:27 am
I'm not sure what y'all are talking about. Maybe it's different in CA or NY, but here, all the constraints are self-imposed. My kids' indoor bounce place is closed because people don't want to go there. Nobody's hosting or attending dinner parties because they think it isn't a good idea. I think restaurants are mandated to max 50% capacity. Other than that there isn't much government involvement.

I don't care whose fault it is: the virus itself, government, people. The vaccine will let everybody get back to normal and I can't wait.
Same exact thing here (Phoenix, AZ). Some people are very conservative and careful regarding COVID, others are behaving and experiencing daily life little different from 2019. It seems to be mostly up to the individual, and you can make your own choice whether to go out to a packed bar, or avoid it due to COVID or any other reason you like. However special events, shows, concerts and things like that are an exception unfortunately.

And there are signs on most retail businesses requiring a mask for customers. I think there is a county wide mask mandate. Some businesses enforce it and others don't. Most seem to go along with it. I gather from this talk that it must be different in other states.

Yes, I think things are going to get back to normal one way or another. The vaccine will just accelerate it.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by vnatale » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:59 am

glennds wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:44 am

Xan wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:27 am

I'm not sure what y'all are talking about. Maybe it's different in CA or NY, but here, all the constraints are self-imposed. My kids' indoor bounce place is closed because people don't want to go there. Nobody's hosting or attending dinner parties because they think it isn't a good idea. I think restaurants are mandated to max 50% capacity. Other than that there isn't much government involvement.

I don't care whose fault it is: the virus itself, government, people. The vaccine will let everybody get back to normal and I can't wait.


Same exact thing here (Phoenix, AZ). Some people are very conservative and careful regarding COVID, others are behaving and experiencing daily life little different from 2019. It seems to be mostly up to the individual, and you can make your own choice whether to go out to a packed bar, or avoid it due to COVID or any other reason you like. However special events, shows, concerts and things like that are an exception unfortunately.

And there are signs on most retail businesses requiring a mask for customers. I think there is a county wide mask mandate. Some businesses enforce it and others don't. Most seem to go along with it. I gather from this talk that it must be different in other states.

Yes, I think things are going to get back to normal one way or another. The vaccine will just accelerate it.


Do not see anyone in the supermarket here in Massachusetts who are NOT wearing a mask.

I've had three sets of home heating people come to my house this past week. All three sets of them were wearing masks. I asked each of them if they wanted me to wear one. The first two said that they did not care. The last one (Thursday) did ask me to wear one.

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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Mark Leavy » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:32 am

Xan wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:27 am
I'm not sure what y'all are talking about. Maybe it's different in CA or NY, but here, all the constraints are self-imposed. My kids' indoor bounce place is closed because people don't want to go there. Nobody's hosting or attending dinner parties because they think it isn't a good idea. I think restaurants are mandated to max 50% capacity. Other than that there isn't much government involvement.

I don't care whose fault it is: the virus itself, government, people. The vaccine will let everybody get back to normal and I can't wait.
It's very state dependent.
Arizona, Utah, Texas, Florida, Wyoming, South Dakota, etc. : You can eat out and generally flout the mask mandate.
California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New York, New Mexico, etc. : Locked down tight. No eating out, no going anywhere without a mask.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by pugchief » Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:40 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:32 am
Xan wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:27 am
I'm not sure what y'all are talking about. Maybe it's different in CA or NY, but here, all the constraints are self-imposed. My kids' indoor bounce place is closed because people don't want to go there. Nobody's hosting or attending dinner parties because they think it isn't a good idea. I think restaurants are mandated to max 50% capacity. Other than that there isn't much government involvement.

I don't care whose fault it is: the virus itself, government, people. The vaccine will let everybody get back to normal and I can't wait.
It's very state dependent.
Arizona, Utah, Texas, Florida, Wyoming, South Dakota, etc. : You can eat out and generally flout the mask mandate.
California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New York, New Mexico, etc. : Locked down tight. No eating out, no going anywhere without a mask.
But folks, it's not political! Anyone care to play the game of what does each of those lists of states have in common? :P
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Mountaineer » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:43 pm

pugchief wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:40 am
Mark Leavy wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 11:32 am
Xan wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:27 am
I'm not sure what y'all are talking about. Maybe it's different in CA or NY, but here, all the constraints are self-imposed. My kids' indoor bounce place is closed because people don't want to go there. Nobody's hosting or attending dinner parties because they think it isn't a good idea. I think restaurants are mandated to max 50% capacity. Other than that there isn't much government involvement.

I don't care whose fault it is: the virus itself, government, people. The vaccine will let everybody get back to normal and I can't wait.
It's very state dependent.
Arizona, Utah, Texas, Florida, Wyoming, South Dakota, etc. : You can eat out and generally flout the mask mandate.
California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New York, New Mexico, etc. : Locked down tight. No eating out, no going anywhere without a mask.
But folks, it's not political! Anyone care to play the game of what does each of those lists of states have in common? :P

Inhalation of either saltwater fumes or old hippy underarm odors (second group)?

Freedom appreciators (first group)?

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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by sophie » Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:10 pm

Xan wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:27 am
The vaccine will let everybody get back to normal and I can't wait.
What we're trying to tell you, Xan, is that things just aren't that simple. Here's the message coming from On High, from what I suppose most people here would consider a "trusted news source":

https://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/na ... 872377001/

"The nation's preeminent infectious disease expert says he believes the country can expect "some degree of normality that is close to where we were" by the end of next year if 75-80% of the population is vaccinated."

And since December 9, Fauci has revised that estimate of the % of population who needs to take the vaccine up to 85-90%.

You're right that the lockdowns are in effect because most people believe those measures to be necessary. Why do they believe that? Because that's what the media and the government are telling them. Well then, they won't change their minds until the government tells them the measures are no longer needed. It's not at all clear to me what conditions will have to exist before the government will send that message, and whether those conditions are at all realistic.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by Xan » Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:58 pm

When 10% are vaccinated, that's 10% of the population who can forget about the virus and are doing their normal things. When it's 20%, that's twice as good. 40% is twice as good again. It isn't an all-or-nothing proposition about us crossing some threshold: even if we don't cross whatever herd immunity threshold Fauci dreams up, whoever can live a normal life will be able to do it, and that's great.

I think the only exception that to it MAY be huge sporting events and concerts. For everything else, normality will scale with the number of people vaccinated.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by tomfoolery » Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:29 pm

Xan wrote:
Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:58 pm
When 10% are vaccinated, that's 10% of the population who can forget about the virus and are doing their normal things. When it's 20%, that's twice as good. 40% is twice as good again. It isn't an all-or-nothing proposition about us crossing some threshold: even if we don't cross whatever herd immunity threshold Fauci dreams up, whoever can live a normal life will be able to do it, and that's great.

I think the only exception that to it MAY be huge sporting events and concerts. For everything else, normality will scale with the number of people vaccinated.
I don’t think it’s linear scaling. There’s network effect involved. If your definition of normalcy is dinner parties and getting together, as you mentioned, then just because 10% get vaccinated doesn’t mean 10% more normalcy. Perhaps there’s a minimum threshold before people decide it’s even worth hosting a dinner party. E.g. if your friends normally have a dinner party of 10 on a weekly basis, then even at 30% vaccination, it’s only 3 of the 10 and the group may decide not to bother having a dinner party for 3, and even if they did, it won’t be the same level of dinner party as before.

If normal activities mean going to the gym, then until the government decides, there will still be mask requirements and working out in a mask sucks, so until you hit the threshold of vaccination that gov rescinds mask ordinance, then it won’t be 10% back to normalcy at 10% vaccination. And in some places gyms are completely closed still and will be for a long time.

There’s business who voluntarily closed some aspects of business like Whole Foods hot bar. It won’t be back to normal until it is. And WF may not decide to do it until there’s 70% vaccination. So it won’t increase normalcy here at all until a threshold is hit. A lockstep movement, not linear.

I don’t think it will scale linearly due to the network effects and minimum thresholds required to meet certain amount for an event.
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by I Shrugged » Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:29 am

When the measurables drop enough that the politicians can declare that they beat it with their good leadership, things will get back to normal. Regardless of how many people have been vaccinated.

(Do I need to say "in my opinion" or "I think"? Should I? The reader should always assume that, don't you think?)
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Re: Will you get vaccinated for COVID?

Post by SomeDude » Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:50 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:29 am
When the measurables drop enough that the politicians can declare that they beat it with their good leadership, things will get back to normal. Regardless of how many people have been vaccinated.

(Do I need to say "in my opinion" or "I think"? Should I? The reader should always assume that, don't you think?)
In my opinion you need to say "in my opinion" or something like that otherwise very sensitive posters will think you're lecturing them and fees fees get hurt. At least that's what I think happens.
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