Debate: Government or Political Parties are the Problem

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vnatale
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Re: Debate: Government or Political Parties are the Problem

Post by vnatale » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:40 am

tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:15 am
vnatale wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:56 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:29 pm
Meh. I'd be happy if the world's population naturally dwindled to half or even a quarter of it's present size. In that regard Japan is on the right path for me. Exponential growth is unsustainable anyways. At some point we will reach a steady state. Id rather do it where I don't have to wait in long lines, crowded and huddled together . Unlike a virus, I'd hope that our purpose lies beyond replication.
As countries become less poor their birth rates naturally decline. It's a pattern that's been repeating itself for decades (centuries?) around the world.

Vinny
This sounds more like a correlation than a causation. Although I haven’t studied this issue, so if you can explain the suggested pathway, I’m curious to learn more.

I would assume the opposite, because looking at a single family unit, we see people having less kids when they are poor because they can’t afford them. At least in the last 30 years.

Maybe 100 years ago, if you were poor, you had multiple kids because you were so poor, you needed to make additional workers for your family and send them to the coal mines. But with child labor laws, that’s no longer the case.

I suppose, we could say the poorer you are in America, if you’re really poor, you have more kids to qualify for higher welfare benefits. Before the liberals prepare the “racist” flags to throw down at me, I’m not saying all poor people do this, but there’s at least some poor people who have more kids and see them as 18 year paycheck programs.

But in general, if we’re talking a middle class family, they use more birth control, and have less sex, and delay having kids to later in life when they can afford it.

So I’d assume the poorer the country, the fewer the kids.
My statement was not directed towards the current (or near-current) United States but to what is and has been occurring in other countries throughout the world. I first read it in a book but, at this time, am forgetting all the reasons why. I just did a Bing search and was unable to offer you. Time permitting I will later get back to it and provide it to you.

Vinny
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Re: Debate: Government or Political Parties are the Problem

Post by l82start » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:14 am

i think the number of kids is more correlated with child mortality than poverty (poverty and child mortality are also often correlated) so poor places with low child mortality have less kids, higher mortality have more... just a theory for consideration..

the sexual revolution and the state taking over replacing fathers seems to have had an effect as well
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Re: Debate: Government or Political Parties are the Problem

Post by vnatale » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:01 am

vnatale wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:40 am
tomfoolery wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:15 am
vnatale wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:56 pm
doodle wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:29 pm
Meh. I'd be happy if the world's population naturally dwindled to half or even a quarter of it's present size. In that regard Japan is on the right path for me. Exponential growth is unsustainable anyways. At some point we will reach a steady state. Id rather do it where I don't have to wait in long lines, crowded and huddled together . Unlike a virus, I'd hope that our purpose lies beyond replication.
As countries become less poor their birth rates naturally decline. It's a pattern that's been repeating itself for decades (centuries?) around the world.

Vinny
This sounds more like a correlation than a causation. Although I haven’t studied this issue, so if you can explain the suggested pathway, I’m curious to learn more.

I would assume the opposite, because looking at a single family unit, we see people having less kids when they are poor because they can’t afford them. At least in the last 30 years.

Maybe 100 years ago, if you were poor, you had multiple kids because you were so poor, you needed to make additional workers for your family and send them to the coal mines. But with child labor laws, that’s no longer the case.

I suppose, we could say the poorer you are in America, if you’re really poor, you have more kids to qualify for higher welfare benefits. Before the liberals prepare the “racist” flags to throw down at me, I’m not saying all poor people do this, but there’s at least some poor people who have more kids and see them as 18 year paycheck programs.

But in general, if we’re talking a middle class family, they use more birth control, and have less sex, and delay having kids to later in life when they can afford it.

So I’d assume the poorer the country, the fewer the kids.
My statement was not directed towards the current (or near-current) United States but to what is and has been occurring in other countries throughout the world. I first read it in a book but, at this time, am forgetting all the reasons why. I just did a Bing search and was unable to offer you. Time permitting I will later get back to it and provide it to you.

Vinny
I just did more searching. I thought I'd originally learned it from Hans Rosling's Factfulness book. But after scanning here twice: https://www.shortform.com/summary-v2/fa ... ns-rosling ......I did not find it.

However, I do recommend all reading this summary as it DOES address many of the postures many take here regarding facts and positions.

I will continue to search regarding the higher incomes leads to smaller families and why.

Vinny
"I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats."
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Re: Debate: Government or Political Parties are the Problem

Post by glennds » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:28 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:50 am
glennds wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:58 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:38 pm

Also, Japan looks fantastic.
In what respect?
High cultural & technological development, quality of life, free housing in their "ghost towns", nice big cities, nearly nonexistent crime, cohesive society, low obesity, pretty countryside... There are just so many positives Japan has going for it I think it's strange to use THEM as a cautionary tale. I get that Japan was pretty much the first country to start dropping pop, but still.
I lived in Japan for most of 2018 and I can echo all the positive things you list, and more. The hardest thing for me leaving Japan was the shock of re-integrating into the United States where the environment is so unbelievably rude and inconsiderate. Most all of us, myself included, don't notice it on a daily basis because it's just normalized deviancy. But go to a country like Japan and come back, and I promise the same kind of shock you get when you jump into a pool and think it's freezing until your body normalizes to it.

Setting this aside, I will tell you there are storm clouds on the horizon for Japan of gigantic proportions that are not obvious to a tourist, but you come to learn about them as you get to know people there including both Japanese and gaijin. It is a country that is living way beyond it's economic means because the post 80's correction/crash has never really resolved. The hope was that it was a cyclical downturn, but it has proven to be a massive reset. However people's standard of living has not changed and this is because the government has basically deficit financed a false prosperity by taking ZIRP and QE to extreme levels, more than any other industrialized country. Add to this a declining AND aging population. The trend they are seeing has never been seen in history. Add to this a deep resistance to looking to immigration as an economic engine. Add to this that Japan is in no position to compete with China on nearly any level for dominance of the Trans Pacific.

It is a fantastic place and culture, but how the storm clouds will play out is the big question. I have gamed it out in my mind dozens of times, and it's tough to find a good ending to the conundrum.
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Re: Debate: Government or Political Parties are the Problem

Post by Tortoise » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:28 pm

l82start wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:14 am
i think the number of kids is more correlated with child mortality than poverty (poverty and child mortality are also often correlated) so poor places with low child mortality have less kids, higher mortality have more... just a theory for consideration..

the sexual revolution and the state taking over replacing fathers seems to have had an effect as well
Right, and I think you can generalize that statement to say feminism, which actually seems like the biggest factor in a society's reproduction rate.

It's really quite simple. If a woman is attending college and pursuing a career, she tends not to be having kids. If she's still focused on her career in her mid-30s, her biological chances of bearing children begin to plummet exponentially until reaching nearly zero in her early- to mid-40s.

So to the extent that feminism involves not only giving women equal rights, but also encouraging women to have careers instead of getting married and having kids, it tends to lower the reproduction rate of the society embracing it.

Some of the fastest-growing populations on the planet right now are Muslim. Why? Because to say that Muslims aren't feminist would be a bit of an understatement.
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Re: Debate: Government or Political Parties are the Problem

Post by boglerdude » Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:09 am

> the United States where the environment is so unbelievably rude and inconsiderate

examples?
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