Gyroscopic Investing

I saw this.

What Tim's podcast was based on is the percentage of early votes according to political party, because Biden voters/Democrats are overwhelmingly more likely than Republicans to vote by mail. Michigan is an outlier with more early voting by Republicans (41% Republican, 39% Democrat, and 20% Independent), but most states are showing that most early votes are Democrats (as high as 75% in Pennsylvania). I guess Tim is figuring that this means many more Republicans than Democrats are turning out in Michigan.

I think he missed the most interesting point though: the high rate at which mail-in ballots are thrown out. The New York Post reported that in NYC's primary election, 84,108 of the 403,103 mail-in ballots were invalidated for various reasons. That's 21%!!!!! Polls show that something like 80% of Biden voters are voting by mail, whereas less than 30% of Trump voters are. In a close race, this could very well become a deciding factor since it will effectively add a couple percentage points to Trump's column. Assuming of course that the rate of ballot rejection averages similar between the two groups.

If I were Trump, I'd be doing exactly what he's doing about mail-in voting. He knows full well that if he rails against mail-in voting, the press will gleefully pass this on to voters. People voting for Trump will avoid mail-in ballots like the plague, and those voting against Trump will be even more likely to use the mail-in option. And after the election, when the pundits realize that close races were lost because of mail-in ballot issues, Trump will be able to say "I told you so."

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:04 am
I think he missed the most interesting point though: the high rate at which mail-in ballots are thrown out. The New York Post reported that in NYC's primary election, 84,108 of the 403,103 mail-in ballots were invalidated for various reasons. That's 21%!!!!!

What are some of the common reasons that mail-in ballots were invalidated in NYC?
Was it something to do with the way the ballot was completed by the voter?

glennds wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:33 pm

WiseOne wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:04 am
I think he missed the most interesting point though: the high rate at which mail-in ballots are thrown out. The New York Post reported that in NYC's primary election, 84,108 of the 403,103 mail-in ballots were invalidated for various reasons. That's 21%!!!!!

What are some of the common reasons that mail-in ballots were invalidated in NYC?
Was it something to do with the way the ballot was completed by the voter?

I am listening to the Sunday news shows on C-Span radio today from noon to 5 PM. This was just recently addressed on the George S show. You hit on the reason in your last sentence. All rules not properly followed in regards to those mail in ballots ended up with them being invalidated.

Vinny

The article gave some information but the numbers were very confusing. They cited three reasons: ballots arriving late, no postmark in the correct location, and no voter signature on the outside envelope.

Some of this is the USPS screwing up, but obviously not all. I imagine there are lots of ways to fill out a ballot incorrectly, and of course people could have mailed them in late. Also, if the USPS lost ballots they would never be received and thus are not included in the count. I don't expect that this would be any better in a national election, in fact it would be worse because a lot more people vote in general elections than primaries so the pressure at USPS will be greater. I also doubt very much that New York would be any better or worse than anyplace else.

article here:
https://nypost.com/2020/08/05/84000-mai ... -election/

A mail-in ballot for which a high percentage of its users (say, 10-20%) accidentally fill it out incorrectly seems like an obvious failure from a design perspective.

Things should be designed with “user error” in mind in order to robustly handle it.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:43 pm A mail-in ballot for which a high percentage of its users (say, 10-20%) accidentally fill it out incorrectly seems like an obvious failure from a design perspective.

Things should be designed with “user error” in mind in order to robustly handle it.

I agree, and assuming the ballots are designed to this standard and a user still fouls up the completion, that's on them and should not be attributed to voter suppression or fraud or hanky panky or whatever. The voter has some accountability too.

I think it might be a case wherein the states who have been doing it for a while probably have much lower voter ballot error rates than those just starting to do it? Or, now pushing do it?

Wouldn't we expect as each year goes by that each state would get better at educating the voters AND the voters would get better at properly filling out their ballots in all ways?

Vinny

I don’t think “educating the voters” on how to properly fill out mail-in ballots should be needed.

If the ballot were designed simply and robustly enough, it would be intuitive and self-evident to the vast majority of people how to fill it out.

Once such a ballot standard were designed, it could easily be shared among the various states.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:07 pm I don’t think “educating the voters” on how to properly fill out mail-in ballots should be needed.

If the ballot were designed simply and robustly enough, it would be intuitive and self-evident to the vast majority of people how to fill it out.

Once such a ballot standard were designed, it could easily be shared among the various states.

It could be shared. But each state is on its own as to things like that and I'm sure various states would think their ballot design should be the standard. Thus, we'll probably continue to have 50 different ballots.

Vinny

OTOH...

If a person can't follow simple directions to fill out a ballot that most people do manage to fill out correctly, I would guess that their vote is not too well informed either. i.e. no loss.

Kind of like an IQ test for voters. I'd be in favor.

vnatale wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:06 pmCapture.JPG

Exactly.

I live in a red state that has done mostly mail in voting for several years. There's a checklist on the outer envelope that says "do this or your ballot will be discarded." It's super complex like:

- Only vote for one candidate per office
- Sign your ballot
- Put the smaller envelope in the bigger envelope and seal the big envelope
- It must be received by date X...send it by mail or bring it to the county office

It even tells you that fraudulent voting is a a crime and the associated penalty(s) if convicted.

The rejection rate is quite low, maybe the people in NY are stupid???

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:00 am I live in a red state that has done mostly mail in voting for several years. There's a checklist on the outer envelope that says "do this or your ballot will be discarded." It's super complex like:

- Only vote for one candidate per office
- Sign your ballot
- Put the smaller envelope in the bigger envelope and seal the big envelope
- It must be received by date X...send it by mail or bring it to the county office

It even tells you that fraudulent voting is a a crime and the associated penalty(s) if convicted.

The rejection rate is quite low, maybe the people in NY are stupid???

A big chunk of the population doesn't speak English and/or has minimal or crappy basic education. Plus, many believe themselves to be above the law due to minority status. If they believe that the law can't forbid them from robbing the corner grocery, why should they think that they have to fill out a ballot correctly in order to have their vote counted? Oh, and USPS service is not great in cruddy neighborhoods.

I bet all the big cities will show something similar, and there will be a huge outcry about ballots disenfranchising minorities....

I understand how the base just eats this up. But exactly how many undecided's does he sway with this?

Election live updates: Trump offers upbeat assessment of campaign, calls Fauci ‘a disaster’ during staff call

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election ... e-updates/


He's losing ground with white women and seniors. In what demographic has he improved since 2016? And, Biden seems to have far less unfavorables then Hillary did.

Don't see how Trump wins in the the light of all of this. How has his possibilities of winning compared to 2016 either been maintained or improved? He won a lot of the high electoral vote states by slim margins in 2016. Quite easy for them to go the other way this year.

Vinny

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:00 am I live in a red state that has done mostly mail in voting for several years. There's a checklist on the outer envelope that says "do this or your ballot will be discarded." It's super complex like:

- Only vote for one candidate per office
- Sign your ballot
- Put the smaller envelope in the bigger envelope and seal the big envelope
- It must be received by date X...send it by mail or bring it to the county office

It even tells you that fraudulent voting is a a crime and the associated penalty(s) if convicted.

The rejection rate is quite low, maybe the people in NY are stupid???

Low information voters plus low reading and writing skills voters=New York voters.

I actually like mail in voting a lot. I can take as much time as I want and research the things I’m voting on while I’m marking the ballot.

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:44 pm I actually like mail in voting a lot. I can take as much time as I want and research the things I’m voting on while I’m marking the ballot.

Just as a PSA, anyone can look at who/what's on their local ballot prior to election day so that they can do their due diligence. For instance, on ballotpedia.org.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:43 pm A mail-in ballot for which a high percentage of its users (say, 10-20%) accidentally fill it out incorrectly seems like an obvious failure from a design perspective.

Things should be designed with “user error” in mind in order to robustly handle it.

My 23 year old granddaughter who lives with me and has been exhibiting signs of extreme TDS was convinced that Trump was trying to steal the election by stopping mail-in voting. So she ordered a ballot and when it arrived yesterday she filled it out immediately and proudly announced that she was carrying it out to the mailbox.

So I asked her how does she know that the mailman isn't a Biden supporter and, seeing all the Trump signs in the neighborhood, assumes that mail-in ballots are mostly for Trump and throws them in the garbage?

She actually returned to her bedroom with the ballot to think about it which I should probably take as a good sign but it's probably a hopeless cause at this point.

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:52 am

Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:44 pm I actually like mail in voting a lot. I can take as much time as I want and research the things I’m voting on while I’m marking the ballot.

Just as a PSA, anyone can look at who/what's on their local ballot prior to election day so that they can do their due diligence. For instance, on ballotpedia.org.

Solid tip/source. No opinion just explanation. The state I live in has multiple constitutional amendments every voting season, and the site is hugely helpful in figuring them out.

pp4me wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:51 am

Tortoise wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:43 pm A mail-in ballot for which a high percentage of its users (say, 10-20%) accidentally fill it out incorrectly seems like an obvious failure from a design perspective.

Things should be designed with “user error” in mind in order to robustly handle it.

My 23 year old granddaughter who lives with me and has been exhibiting signs of extreme TDS was convinced that Trump was trying to steal the election by stopping mail-in voting. So she ordered a ballot and when it arrived yesterday she filled it out immediately and proudly announced that she was carrying it out to the mailbox.

So I asked her how does she know that the mailman isn't a Biden supporter and, seeing all the Trump signs in the neighborhood, assumes that mail-in ballots are mostly for Trump and throws them in the garbage?

She actually returned to her bedroom with the ballot to think about it which I should probably take as a good sign but it's probably a hopeless cause at this point.

Please let us know how it turns out.